Large-scale Events Research Articles

“ZEMSKY SOBOR OF ALL THE RUSSIAN LAND” IN 1917. REFLECTIONS ON THE LATEST STUDY OF THE HISTORY OF THE 1917 STATE CONFERENCE BY A.B. NIKOLAEV

The review examins the monograph by A.B. Nikolaev “State Conference of 1917: Summoning, Composition, Activities”, published in 2022. The preparation and holding of the large-scale all-Russian event in the revolutionary year of 1917 are analyzed in the context of studying parliamentarism in Russia. The Moscow State Conference of 1917 arose from an urgent necessity for the coalition Provisional Government to strengthen its prestige and A.F. Kerensky’s personal power, as well as probably to receive a “tribune”, which could be used to give prompt explanations on all issues that would arise in the event of its transformation from an advisory institution as an ersatz parliament into a body with constituent functions. In addition, the Provisional Government was looking for opportunities on a state level to reconcile revolutionary socialist democracy and bourgeois liberalism movements, which had already completely split by that time. Moscow State Conference of 1917 assumed crucial significance due to the desire to find a way out of the existing revolutionary impasse and to serve as a support for the weak and dependent dual state power. Having ensured this support, it would become a united, strong power, capable of saving the country from internal collapse. In an effort to prevail over the impending political and social anarchy, the Conference became a tense, dramatic episode of the Revolution of 1917. The observers and participants of the State Conference obviously regarded it as the “Zemsky Sobor of all the Russian Land” which met in the former capital of Russia to solve the pressing problems and give state power the physical and spiritual strength it needed. The results of the State Conference proved to be contradictory for all political forces. The Provisional Government was able to obtain majority support at the meeting, but the nature of this support indicated the extremely precarious position of the coalition. As a result of the research, the author of the reviewed monograph comes to the conclusion that the State Conference, while maintaining the coalition, did not strengthen it. Representatives of revolutionary democracy were forced to make concessions to the bourgeoisie, which subsequently led to the loss of revolutionary democracy’s authority among workers and soldiers.

Genome-wide identification and expression analysis of the Eriobotrya japonica TIFY gene family reveals its functional diversity under abiotic stress conditions

BackgroundPlant-specific TIFY proteins are widely found in terrestrial plants and play important roles in plant adversity responses. Although the genome of loquat at the chromosome level has been published, studies on the TIFY family in loquat are lacking. Therefore, the EjTIFY gene family was bioinformatically analyzed by constructing a phylogenetic tree, chromosomal localization, gene structure, and adversity expression profiling in this study.ResultsTwenty-six EjTIFY genes were identified and categorized into four subfamilies (ZML, JAZ, PPD, and TIFY) based on their structural domains. Twenty-four EjTIFY genes were irregularly distributed on 11 of the 17 chromosomes, and the remaining two genes were distributed in fragments. We identified 15 covariate TIFY gene pairs in the loquat genome, 13 of which were involved in large-scale interchromosomal segmental duplication events, and two of which were involved in tandem duplication events. Many abiotic stress cis-elements were widely present in the promoter region. Analysis of the Ka/Ks ratio showed that the paralogous homologs of the EjTIFY family were mainly subjected to purifying selection. Analysis of the RNA-seq data revealed that a total of five differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were expressed in the shoots under gibberellin treatment, whereas only one gene was significantly differentially expressed in the leaves; under both low-temperature and high-temperature stresses, there were significantly differentially expressed genes, and the EjJAZ15 gene was significantly upregulated under both low- and high-temperature stress. RNA-seq and qRT-PCR expression analysis under salt stress conditions revealed that EjJAZ2, EjJAZ4, and EjJAZ9 responded to salt stress in loquat plants, which promoted resistance to salt stress through the JA pathway. The response model of the TIFY genes in the jasmonic acid pathway under salt stress in loquat was systematically summarized.ConclusionsThese results provide a theoretical basis for exploring the characteristics and functions of additional EjTIFY genes in the future. This study also provides a theoretical basis for further research on breeding for salt stress resistance in loquat. RT-qPCR analysis revealed that the expression of one of the three EjTIFY genes increased and the expression of two decreased under salt stress conditions, suggesting that EjTIFY exhibited different expression patterns under salt stress conditions.

The spatio-temporal variation of exhumation and its impacts on the resource distribution in the Northern Carnarvon Basin, Australia

Deformation and rock fracture during exhumation can enhance rock porosity and permeability, thereby improving fluid migration through reservoirs and destroying seal integrity in caprocks. Therefore, analysing the spatio-temporal distribution of exhumation in connection to fluid migration models can be crucial for energy resource exploration and storage. Geological and geophysical evidence suggests that parts of the Northern Carnarvon Basin (NCB) were exhumed. However, the spatio-temporal distribution of this exhumation and its impacts on the region's resource distribution is yet to be established. We analysed porosity, sonic logs and paleotemperature data from 210 boreholes using compaction and vitrinite reflectance analysis techniques to constrain the spatio-temporal distribution of exhumation and its correlation to the region's resource distribution. We discovered that multiple exhumation phases occurred since the Late Triassic. The highest exhumation occurred in the Mid Jurassic, where approximately 1000 m of sediment thickness was eroded from the western and southwestern parts of the Exmouth Plateau. Exhumation at this time spatially correlates with magmatic intrusions in the NCB, and paleotemperature profiles indicate that sediments in the exhumed regions were partly heated by increased paleo-basal heat flow, suggesting that magmatic bodies through underplating and crustal intrusions were the primary causes of this exhumation. Another significant exhumation phase occurred in the Early Cretaceous, removing ∼800 m of sediments from the Exmouth, Barrow and Dampier Sub-basins. Depth-dependent extension events and magmatic intrusions possibly caused exhumation at this time. Significant exhumation ceased in the Early Cretaceous, and our study has established that the exhumation episodes in the NCB were part of large-scale regional events that affected the Australian Northwest Shelf. Combining results from different estimation techniques increased the spatio-temporal coverage of the analysis and improved the precision and accuracy of exhumation results.

Challenges in downstream dam passage and the effect of dam removal on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt migrations.

Migration is critical for life-cycle completion in diadromous fish species. River connectivity is vital in facilitating these large-scale movement events, but the extent of present-day river fragmentation can interfere with these migrations. Fish passage solutions (FPSs) are commonly implemented with the aim of improving river connectivity. In our study, we investigated the performance of two types of FPSs, spill regimes and complete dam removal, on Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolt migrations. We used acoustic telemetry to monitor migration behavior and passage success of 120 wild smolts released in three different groups/sites: one group with two dams to pass to reach the river mouth, a second group with one dam to pass, and a control group without any barriers to pass (upstream of a recently removed hydroelectric dam). Smolt passage probabilities were similar for the two studied dams (87% and 86%) but showed variation in path choice, delay times, and loss rates. Passage success was influenced by several factors, such as body size, diel period, and water temperature, but not flow. Cumulative passage success to the river mouth was 61%, with most individuals being lost within lentic river stretches, either in the forebays of hydroelectric power stations or in naturally wide river stretches. Within the recently rehabilitated river sections (post dam removal), passage speeds were significantly faster than all other sections of the river (post-rehabilitation x¯ = 56.1 km/day) with significantly faster speeds compared to pre-rehabilitation (pre-x¯ = 28.0 km/day). Our findings provide valuable information on the benefits of dam removal and highlight the need for further rehabilitation measures in upriver reaches where barriers still affect downstream passage.

Rethinking the Role of Biodosimetry to Assess Risks for Acute Radiation Syndrome in Very Large Radiation Events: Reconsidering Legacy Concepts.

The development of effective uses of biodosimetry in large-scale events has been hampered by residual, i.e., "legacy" thinking based on strategies that scale up from biodosimetry in small accidents. Consequently, there remain vestiges of unrealistic assumptions about the likely magnitude of victims in "large" radiation events and incomplete analyses of the logistics for making biodosimetry measurements/assessments in the field for primary triage. Elements remain from an unrealistic focus on developing methods to use biodosimetry in the initial stage of triage for a million or more victims. Based on recent events and concomitant increased awareness of the potential for large-scale events as well as increased sophistication in planning and experience in the development of biodosimetry, a more realistic assessment of the most effective roles of biodosimetry in large-scale events is urgently needed. We argue this leads to a conclusion that the most effective utilization of biodosimetry in very large events would occur in a second stage of triage, after initially winnowing the population by identifying those most in need of acute medical attention, based on calculations of geographic sites where significant exposures could have occurred. Understanding the potential roles and limitations of biodosimetry in large-scale events involving significant radiation exposure should lead to development of the most effective and useful biodosimetric techniques for each stage of triage for acute radiation syndrome injuries, i.e., based on more realistic assumptions about the underlying event and the logistics for carrying out biodosimetry for large populations.

Events-within-events and the online reproduction of their emotional dimensions: a case study of the Dubai 2020 expo

ABSTRACT Large-scale events are typically described as single, monolithic entities. In this paper, we argue that large-scale events actually comprise multiple sub-events or events-within-events and their online representations. We explore the theoretical implications of this shift in perspective for the study of audiences and event engagement through the lens of communication power theory. We also discuss the practical implications for event management. The paper uses the Expo 2020 Dubai as its case study to illustrate the richness of sub-events within large-scale events and to consider the role of digital communications. The discussion highlights the ways in which physical events' digital twins aim to solicit similar emotional responses by audiences as their physical counterparts. By adding complexity to our understanding of these sorts of events, we argue that large-scale events comprise multiple sub-events, taking place both face-to-face and online, that make large-scale events richer and more multifaceted than they are typically seen to be. Our research shows that event organisers will need to go beyond the creation of virtual event replicas if they want to take full advantage of the affordances of digital communication. The paper concludes by calling for more critical and interdisciplinary research on large-scale events and their online representations.

Growth decline characteristics of Picea schrenkiana at different altitudes in Yili River Basin, western Tian-shan Mountains, Xinjiang, China

Picea schrenkiana is the dominant tree species in Ili River Basin located in the western Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang. We investigated the growth decline characteristics of P. schrenkiana at different altitudes (1800, 2300 and 2800 m) based on tree-ring index (TRI) and percentage growth change (GC), aiming to understand the growth response of P. schrenkiana to drought events at different altitudes and the impacts of altitude on tree growth decline in this region. The results showed that P. schrenkiana experienced multiple decline events at low-altitude (1800 m). TRI and GC identified inconsistent occurrence time of the decline events. The variations of TRI indicated that P. schrenkiana at low-altitude experienced two large-scale declines during 1927-1933 and 2017-2014, respectively. The variations of GC identified four decline events, including 1891-1893, 1924-1926, 1973-1975, and 2004-2009. The radial growth of P. schrenkiana across altitudes from low to high was significantly affected by the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) of the previous growing season. The impact of current PDSI on P. schrenkiana during the growing season initially enhanced but later decreased with increasing altitude. In the extreme drought year 1917, the magnitude of growth decline increased with altitude. At low-altitude (1800 m), the TRI was 0.65, which was 35% lower than the normal level. At mid-altitude (2300 m) and high-altitude (2800 m), it was 0.56 and 0.54, respectively, being 40% lower than the average level. The drought event in 1917 had a 2-year legacy effect on the growth of P. schrenkiana at all the altitudes, with the TRI in 1920 recovered to exceeding 0.9, being close to the normal level. The impact of altitude on drought-induced forest decline was significant. Tree growth in low-altitude areas was more vulnerable to drought events due to the relatively poorer water and temperature conditions at low-altitude, which could lead to multiple large-scale decline events. In mid- and high-altitude areas, where hydrothermal conditions were more favorable, trees could experience even more severe decline during extreme droughts.

Introduction to the Special Issue: Disrupted Language Teacher Identities in Times of Uncertainty

The English language teaching (ELT) profession is at its precipice with large-scale global events and transitions in the recent decade. Changes in global alliances, international conflicts, geopolitical tensions, wars, economic crises, and global climate changes brought uncertainties to the world and the ELT landscape. In this special issue, Between Indisposition and Perseverance: Disrupted Language Teacher Identities in Times of Uncertainty, we explore how English language teachers, researchers, and professionals grapple with indispositions from social, historical, political, economic, and emotional dilemmas in times of uncertainty. [First paragraph of the introduction to the special issue]

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Oyster Settlement on Intertidal Reefs Support Site-Specific Assessments for Restoration Practices

As some of the most threatened ecosystems in the world, the declining condition and coverage of coastal habitats results in the loss of the myriad ecosystem services they provide. Due to the variability in physical and biological characteristics across sites, it is imperative to increase location-based information to inform local management projects, which will potentially help to reestablish functions of coastal habitats. Since oysters are often used in restoration projects, this study quantified spatial and temporal patterns in eastern oyster spat settlement in a bar-built estuary in northeast Florida, USA that is host to a robust population of intertidal oyster reefs. Spat settlement was found to occur from April to October with small peaks in the spring and large ones around September. Inter-annual differences in spat settlement were likely influenced by existing environmental conditions and heavily affected by large-scale events such as tropical cyclones. Variations in regional spat settlements are possibly driven by the residence times of the watersheds, the density of adult populations, and the location of the spat collectors. The results of this study illustrate place-based variability in oyster settlement patterns and underscore the importance of local monitoring for oyster resource management, restoration, and research.

Towards Re-Architecting Today's Internet for Survivability: NSF Workshop Report

On November 28--29, 2023, Northwestern University hosted a workshop titled "Towards Re-architecting Today's Internet for Survivability" in Evanston, Illinois, US. The goal of the workshop was to bring together a group of national and international experts to sketch and start implementing a transformative research agenda for solving one of our community's most challenging yet important tasks: the re-architecting of tomorrow's Internet for "survivability", ensuring that the network is able to fulfill its mission even in the presence of large-scale catastrophic events. This report provides a necessarily brief overview of two full days of active discussions.

Psychological safety during a large-scale simulation-based learning event

Psychological safety (PS) is currently endorsed as best practice in simulated learning environments. PS refers to the belief that a student can express their ideas and concerns without fear of negative consequences. Students who participate in simulation-based scenarios often experience psychological distress during such events if they are immersed in an environment that is not psychologically safe. This phenomenon has been researched in the field of nursing during both the briefing and debriefing phases of simulation. The aim of this study was to determine the level of PS of emergency care students at a large-scale simulation rescue training exercise. A quantitative survey design was used on student participants at an annual rescue training exercise in 2021. Students who participated in a high-fidelity rescue event scored a mean PS score of 48.76. Reluctance to take interpersonal risks and fear of making mistakes in a team setting were identified as areas of concern. When PS is understood and improved, the learning experience for students will be enhanced and they will be able to participate without fear of humiliation.

CHINA’S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AT THE PRESENT STAGE

The purpose of the research. The article examines the current state of public diplomacy research in China. The subject, object, method and purpose of public diplomacy are analyzed. As a resource of national soft power, culture is an important means of implementing public diplomacy. In the article, we analyze the specific Chinese practice of implementing public diplomacy from the point of view of cultural public diplomacy. Results. As a result of the conducted research, the author comes to the conclusion that the status of public diplomacy in Chinese national diplomacy has increased rapidly. First, with regard to the current state of research, in recent years, the research of Chinese scientists in the field of public diplomacy has focused more on applied research than on theoretical ones, such as the role of public diplomacy in shaping the country’s image and strengthening its soft power. Secondly, with regard to the definition of public diplomacy, Chinese scientists hold different views on the subject, object and method of public diplomacy, but on the purpose of public diplomacy, Chinese scientists believe that public diplomacy, like other types of traditional diplomacy, is aimed at protecting and strengthening national interests. Thirdly, humanitarian exchanges have always been an important part of Xi Jinping’s socialist diplomatic thought with Chinese specifics in the new era and an important pillar of Chinese diplomacy. China has enriched Chinese public diplomacy with the opening of Confucius institutes, exchanges, large-scale cultural events and large-scale sports events, promoted the popularization of Chinese culture, strengthened mutual understanding and cooperation with the peoples of other countries and achieved good results.

Climate Change and Cholera: A Review Exploring the Association Between Storm Severity and Global Human Vibrio spp. Incidence.

Current global meteorological evidence suggests that climate change is a direct contributor to the increased severity of weather events, such as hurricanes and typhoons, putting billions of people at increased risk of physical harm, property damage, and destructive flooding. When flood water becomes stagnant, communities are more susceptible to a multitude of infectious diseases, ranging from mosquito-borne parasites to bacterial infections. In the case of Vibrio spp., a bacterial pathogen class with an infamous history of waterborne illness, recent data has demonstrated the ability for salt water, fresh water, and brackish water replication, creating ideal conditions for spread after a tropical cyclone. Vibrio spp. infections, specifically species V. vulnificus, V. parahaemolyticus, and V. cholerae, have shown significant upticks in the number of global cases, with some species increasing in incidence by more than 8-fold in the last 40 years. These outbreaks are contained mainly in areas susceptible to large-scale storm events and primarily occur during or immediately following the conclusion of local storm seasons, suggesting a potential correlation between the presence of tropical weather events and increases in the number of human Vibrio infections. In this review, we present a compilation of sources from tropical cyclone-susceptible areas, including the Americas, Asia, Africa, and Oceania, containing evidence demonstrating that recent outbreaks of Vibrio spp. are correlated with an increase in the severity of storms. Many of the included studies used modeling to forecast future trends of vibriosis and, therefore, directly link the effects of climate change with detrimental impacts to human global health.

Niche-based approach to explore the impacts of environmental disturbances on biodiversity.

Globally, species are increasingly at risk from compounding threatening processes, an increasingly prominent driver of which is environmental disturbances. To facilitate effective conservation efforts following such events, methods that evaluate potential impacts across multiple species and provide landscape-scale information are needed to guide targeted responses. Often, the geographic overlap between a disturbance and species' distribution is calculated and then used as a proxy for potential impact. However, such methods do not account for the important influence of environmental heterogeneity throughout species' ranges. To address this shortcoming, we quantified the effects of environmental disturbances on species' environmental niche space. Using the Australian 2019 and 2020 Black Summer fires as a case study, we applied a niche-centric approach to examine the potential impacts of these fires on 387 vertebrate species. We examined the utility of established and novel niche metrics to assess the potential impacts of large-scale disturbance events on species by comparing the potential effects of the fires as determined by our various niche measures to those derived from geographic-based measures of impact. We examined the quality of environmental space affected by the disturbance by quantifying the position in niche space where the disturbance occurred (center or margin), the uniqueness of the environmental space that was burned, and the degree to which the remaining, unburned portion of the niche differed from a species' original prefire niche. There was limited congruence between the proportion of geographic and niche space affected, which showed that geographic-based approaches in isolation may have underestimated the impact of the fires for 56% of modeled species. For each species, when combined, these metrics provided a greater indication of postdisturbance recovery potential than geographic-based measures alone. Accordingly, the integration of niche-based analyses into conservation assessments following large-scale disturbance events will lead to a more nuanced understanding of potential impacts and guide more informed and effective conservation actions.

A Consistent Explanation for the Unusual Initial Mass Function and Star Formation Rate in the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ)

We examine various physical processes that may explain the shallow high-mass slope of the initial mass function (IMF), as well as the low star formation rate (SFR) in star-forming molecular clouds (MCs) in the Central Molecular Zone (CMZ). We show that the strong tidal field and shear experienced by the CMZ have opposite effects on the collapse of density fluctuations and cannot explain these properties. Similarly, we show that the intense magnetic field in the CMZ provides a negligible pressure support and, for the high densities at play, should not modify the probability density function of the turbulent gas flow, thus affecting negligibly the IMF. However, we show that, in contrast to the MCs in the Galactic disk, the ones in the CMZ experience only one single episode of turbulence cascade. Indeed, their rather short lifetime, due to their high mean densities, is similar to one typical turbulence crossing time. Consequently, according to the Hennebelle–Chabrier theory of star formation, within this “single turbulence cascade episode,” the cloud experiences one single field of turbulence-induced density fluctuations, leading eventually to gravitationally unstable cores. As shown in Hennebelle & Chabrier (2013), this yields a shallower IMF than usual and leads to the correct observed slope for the CMZ star-forming clouds. Similarly, this single large-scale turbulence event within the cloud lifetime yields a 5–6 times lower SFR than under usual conditions, in agreement with the observed values. Therefore, we suggest that this “single turbulence cascade” scenario can explain both the shallow IMF and low SFR of clouds in the CMZ.

Analysis of the fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period using multiple machine learning methods: a case study of the Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games

Using machine learning methods to analyze the fatigue status of medical security personnel and the factors influencing fatigue (such as BMI, gender, and wearing protective clothing working hours), with the goal of identifying the key factors contributing to fatigue. By validating the predicted outcomes, actionable and practical recommendations can be offered to enhance fatigue status, such as reducing wearing protective clothing working hours. A questionnaire was designed to assess the fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period, aiming to capture information on fatigue experienced during work and disease recovery. The collected data was then preprocessed and used to determine the structural parameters for each machine learning algorithm. To evaluate the prediction performance of different models, the mean relative error (MRE) and goodness of fit (R2) between the true and predicted values were calculated. Furthermore, the importance rankings of various parameters in relation to fatigue status were determined using the RF feature importance analysis method. The fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period was analyzed using multiple machine learning methods. The prediction performance of these methods was ranked from highest to lowest as follows: Gradient Boosting Regression (GBM) > Random Forest (RF) > Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) > K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) > Support Vector Regression (SVR). Among these algorithms, four out of the five achieved good prediction results, with the GBM method performing the best. The five most critical parameters influencing fatigue status were identified as working hours in protective clothing, a customized symptom and disease score (CSDS), physical exercise, body mass index (BMI), and age, all of which had importance scores exceeding 0.06. Notably, working hours in protective clothing obtained the highest importance score of 0.54, making it the most critical factor impacting fatigue status. Fatigue is a prevalent and pressing issue among medical security personnel operating in closed-loop environments. In our investigation, we observed that the GBM method exhibited superior predictive performance in determining the fatigue status of medical security personnel during the closed-loop period, surpassing other machine learning techniques. Notably, our analysis identified several critical factors influencing the fatigue status of medical security personnel, including the duration of working hours in protective clothing, CSDS, and engagement in physical exercise. These findings shed light on the multifaceted nature of fatigue among healthcare workers and emphasize the importance of considering various contributing factors. To effectively alleviate fatigue, prudent management of working hours for security personnel, along with minimizing the duration of wearing protective clothing, proves to be promising strategies. Furthermore, promoting regular physical exercise among medical security personnel can significantly impact fatigue reduction. Additionally, the exploration of medication interventions and the adoption of innovative protective clothing options present potential avenues for mitigating fatigue. The insights derived from this study offer valuable guidance to management personnel involved in organizing large-scale events, enabling them to make informed decisions and implement targeted interventions to address fatigue among medical security personnel. In our upcoming research, we will further expand the fatigue dataset while considering higher precisionprediction algorithms, such as XGBoost model, ensemble model, etc., and explore their potential contributions to our research.

Organizational work and adoption of standards of the All-Russian Sports Society “Ready for Labor and Defense” (GTO) in an educational organization

Relevance. Currently, the competence of health-saving behavior is indicated in all areas of educational activity. It correlates with the upbringing of the younger generation of a health culture, which means not only health literacy, but also the practical embodiment of the need to lead a healthy lifestyle, take responsibility for yourself and take care of your own health. Methods and organization of research are the essence of aspects of health-saving pedagogy, according to which the consistent formation of a healthy environment at school, college, and institute involves the use and possession by teachers of technologies that do not harm health. The results of the study. For the first time, such a large-scale event was held, where teachers of the Yekaterinburg Institute of Physical Culture, together with the judging panel of the Kalininets Sports and Recreation Complex, conducted a Sports quest, and participants in the quest to fulfill the standards of the TRP were both students of the college and the Institute of Physical Culture, as well as physical education teachers of schools in Yekaterinburg. Conclusions: The focus of attention when introducing the WFSK TRP into the education system should be not only the actual preparation for the implementation of standards, but also the formation of a physical culture of the individual, which is advisable to carry out through spiritual and moral, patriotic education and tourism and local history activities as an element of spiritual, moral and patriotic education.

A validation study of citizen science-based rainfall observation

Citizen science-based data collection approaches offer new opportunities to produce high-quality rainfall products. One of the most promising options, personal rain gauges (PRGs), allows for high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall observation and has received much attention in recent years. Doubts about the accuracy and stability of PRGs, however, have led many researchers to remain hesitant about using PRG-based rainfall datasets. It is, therefore, of great importance to investigate the effectiveness of the PRG rainfall observation network. In this paper, 294 daily (24 hr) rainfall data between June 2022 and June 2023 was collected in the Netherlands using the PRG network and compared with ground rain gauge and radar estimations. The experimental results indicate that: (1) during the large-scale rainfall events, PRG achieved a Pearson correlation performance of 0.498, 0.488, and 0.324 compared to the corrected/uncorrected rain gauge network and radar observations, respectively, which decreased to 0.11, 0.101, and 0.108 for small-scale rainfall. It can be concluded that the PRG network shows a certain degree of agreement with ground rainfall gauges and radar measurements and is more suitable for large-scale rainfall observation tasks; (2) the relative errors between the PRGs and compared rainfall products indicate that the accuracy of the PRG network still needs to be improved. This study could offer a useful complement to the existing rainfall observation system while providing a helpful supplement to the development of citizen science.

Long-term developments in seasonal hypoxia and response to climate change: A three-decade modeling study in the Ariake Sea, Japan

Hypoxia in the Ariake Sea, Japan, is steadily increasing in both duration and spatial coverage. Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) below 3 mg/L, is strongly associated with the amplified frequency of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change, which poses a mounting threat to marine ecosystems on a global scale. In this study, we employed a general three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic coastal model and a phytoplankton-based ecosystem model to identify the potential cause of seasonal hypoxic events over three decades. The results indicated a substantial decrease in bottom DO levels from 1992 to 2021, with the rate of increase in hypoxic area being 8 km2/yr (95 % CI: −0.38, 16.2) and the anoxic area increasing from almost non-existent to 100 km2. Notably, among various environmental drivers, increased river discharge was identified as a pivotal factor in the occurrence of hypoxia. Large-scale river discharge events can potentially increase water stratification, leading to the formation of hypoxia. River discharge volume and the duration of bottom hypoxia in the Ariake Sea were correlated. The duration of hypoxia was strongly associated with river discharge magnitude, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.82 across six observational stations. Furthermore, analysis of varied simulated environmental factors over multiple years revealed diverse responses to climate change, indicating that the Ariake Sea is prone to experiencing a decline in its physical and water quality conditions.

Two-phase approach to modeling the grain-fluid flows with deposition and entrainment over rugged topography

We present a grain-fluid mixture for debris flows moving on a rugged (non-trivial) topography, where entrainment and deposition may take place. The model equations are derived with respect to a terrain-following coordinate system, which is constructed based on the topographic surface. The coordinates are fixed in space, and a “sub-topography” is added on the coordinate surface to account for the variation in the local topography when entrainment or deposition takes place. Numerical implementation is made based on a GPU-accelerated simulation tool, into which the entrainment-deposition mechanism is integrated accordingly. Two numerical examples are assigned to investigate the key features of the proposed model. One is on a horizontal plane, on which a finite mass of grain-fluid mixture is released from the state of rest. In this example, debris flow deposits significantly impact the post-event morphology and the associated flow behaviors. The other concerns a moving mass down an inclined chute merging into a horizontal deposition plane, where the levee formation is reproduced. At the end, the model is validated against grain-water experiments and applied to a large-scale historical event to evaluate its applicability.