Long-term developments in seasonal hypoxia and response to climate change: A three-decade modeling study in the Ariake Sea, Japan

Abstract

Hypoxia in the Ariake Sea, Japan, is steadily increasing in both duration and spatial coverage. Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) below 3 mg/L, is strongly associated with the amplified frequency of extreme rainfall events driven by climate change, which poses a mounting threat to marine ecosystems on a global scale. In this study, we employed a general three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic coastal model and a phytoplankton-based ecosystem model to identify the potential cause of seasonal hypoxic events over three decades. The results indicated a substantial decrease in bottom DO levels from 1992 to 2021, with the rate of increase in hypoxic area being 8 km2/yr (95 % CI: −0.38, 16.2) and the anoxic area increasing from almost non-existent to 100 km2. Notably, among various environmental drivers, increased river discharge was identified as a pivotal factor in the occurrence of hypoxia. Large-scale river discharge events can potentially increase water stratification, leading to the formation of hypoxia. River discharge volume and the duration of bottom hypoxia in the Ariake Sea were correlated. The duration of hypoxia was strongly associated with river discharge magnitude, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.82 across six observational stations. Furthermore, analysis of varied simulated environmental factors over multiple years revealed diverse responses to climate change, indicating that the Ariake Sea is prone to experiencing a decline in its physical and water quality conditions.