Landscape Vulnerability Research Articles

The continuum of chronic to episodic natural hazards: Implications and strategies for community and landscape planning

Natural hazards present challenges for community and rural planning. In this perspective essay hazards are categorized in the continuum from chronic to episodic to help guide the planning process. While episodic hazards garner most attention because of their immediate destructive nature, chronic hazards like sea-level rise and drought also have important implications for planning and can exacerbate episodic hazards like landfall typhoons, flooding, and wildfire. Both hazard types require long-term planning horizons, which have not been readily or optimally adopted. In the continuum between these two types, hazards differ with respect to maximum spatial extent of impacts, influences of anthropogenic effects, and risk of disaster. Issues warranting consideration that affect the vulnerability of communities and rural landscapes to natural hazards include demographic shifts and patterns, land use change, generational experience with hazards, adaptation measures, wealth, and community resilience. Of particular concern to planning in areas susceptible to disasters are cascading hazards, where one hazard (e.g., typhoon) triggers a series of other hazards (e.g., landslides, debris flows, floods). We present a DAIR (Design-Analyze-Implement-Reassess) framework that could be used in early stages of planning to minimize the impacts of natural hazards. Examples of how multiple hazards have been and need to be incorporated into the planning process are presented for the Brisbane River catchment (Australia) and the Kagoshima Bay area (Japan) – regions with complex disaster histories that have been affected by past and recent anthropogenic pressures.

Analysis of Human Disturbance and Ecological Security Evolution in Oasis in Arid Area Based on LUCC: A Case Study of Oasis in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope Economic Zone

Oases in arid areas are environmentally and economically vulnerable regions. Study on ecological security of oases in arid areas is of great significance to the stability and the economic development of oases. Based on Land Use/Land Cover data in 1965, 1980, 1995, 2005 and 2015, the study analyze the temporal and spatial changes in human disturbance and ecological security of oases in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Slope Economic Zone (NTMSEZ) in recent 50 years by establishing the ecological security index (ESI) through human disturbance index and landscape vulnerability index. The results showed that: in recent 50 years, the human disturbance of the NTMSEZ has been increased to current moderate human impacts. Urban construction, oasis expansion and farmland reclamation are the main factors of the increment. The human disturbance in Urumchi, Shihezi, Kuitun, Miquan and Changji is higher than that in other oases and that in core areas of oasis is higher than other areas. The ESI of the NTMSEZ increases firstly and then decreases. In most areas, the ESI is “relatively unsafe” and “critical”. However, there are increasingly more vulnerable areas, moving northwestwards and expanding southwards. The ESI gradually presents a “NW-SE” trend of zonal distribution pattern.

Economic vulnerability of fire-prone landscapes in protected natural areas: application in a Mediterranean Natural Park

Environmental services and landscape goods are rarely incorporated into economic valuation of natural resources, even though these resources may constitute a large proportion of the total ecosystem value, mainly in natural protected areas. The frequent occurrence of wildfires in Spanish protected areas requires a tool, which allows for the comprehensive management of landscape resource and mitigating the potential economic impacts caused by fire. In this paper, we extend the economic valuation theory to the concept of economic vulnerability. Geographic Information System was used to develop a framework for landscape impact assessment using annual landscape value, vegetation resilience and fire behavior. An economic approach of landscape susceptibility was provided by the integration of these three components. Once landscape susceptibility had been spatially characterized, landscape vulnerability was analyzed from criteria associated with landscape susceptibility and burn probability. There was a notable variation in landscape vulnerability ranging from 412,000 Euros to 1,200,000 Euros in Aracena Natural Park (186,828 ha) according to the selected contingent valuation scenario. The availability of cartography of landscape vulnerability could play a critical role in budget optimization and the decision-making process. In this sense, this approach helps managers to identify different efforts according to spatial distribution of the risk and fuel management strategies to increase economic efficiency of fire prevention activities.

Towards (dis)continuity of agricultural wetlands: Latvia’s polder landscapes after Soviet productivism

The concepts of agricultural regimes in advanced economies, such as productivism or non/neo/post-productivism, have been critically debated over the last decades to understand the transition and diversity of modern agriculture. We explore these concepts to understand the environmentally vulnerable landscape of agricultural wetlands in Latvia that, during the era of Soviet high modernism (productivist agricultural regime), have been converted into polders as part of a mass drainage movement. Today, these post-Soviet agro-polders can be characterised as antipodes in relation to integrity of heritage, ecology and the socio-economics of agricultural concerns. Building on case studies, wider political contexts and current debates on agricultural transitions, the paper traces the transition of wetlands through agricultural regimes and unfolds the various pathways for current polder landscapes. This paper concludes with critical notes on the contemporary co-existence of different agro-polder use of which the most incoherent are the non-productivist actions producing landscapes of mere agricultural appearance.

A landscape vulnerability analysis method proposal and its integration in the EIA

Landscape is the area primarily affected by proposed human projects. The prediction and evaluation of the potential anthropogenic impacts under Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) is therefore one of the major environmental tools for prevention of any deteriorative or destructive actions. To conduct EIA properly requires inclusion of a determination of landscape vulnerability which expresses the possible landscape reaction to impacts of any exogenous factors. When it is designated correctly, the suitable human activities are determined more accurately. Even though many techniques for this have been suggested worldwide, lots of deficiencies have surfaced in their application. This paper presents a method for landscape vulnerability analysis which consists of qualitative evaluation of landscape receptors, their scoring, the vulnerability degree calculation, and overall reliability evaluation. The method proposed can improve the impact objectivity of prediction and evaluation and the suggestion of precise mitigation measures with the purpose of achieving sustainable landscape management.

A maximal covering location-based model for analyzing the vulnerability of landscapes to wildfires: Assessing the worst-case scenario

In this research, we study the vulnerability of landscapes to wildfires based on the impact of the worst-case scenario ignition locations. Using this scenario, we model wildfires that cause the largest damage to a landscape over a given time horizon. The landscape is modeled as a grid network, and the spread of wildfire is modeled using the minimum travel time model. To assess the impact of a wildfire in the worst-case scenario, we develop a mathematical programming model to optimally locate the ignition points so that the resulting wildfire results in the maximum damage. We compare the impacts of the worst-case wildfires (with optimally located ignition points) with the impacts of wildfires with randomly located ignition points on three landscape test cases clipped out from three national forests located in the western U.S. Our results indicate that the worst-case wildfires, on average, have more than twice the impact on landscapes than wildfires with randomly located ignition points.

Barcoding lichen-forming fungi using 454 pyrosequencing is challenged by artifactual and biological sequence variation.

Although lichens (lichen-forming fungi) play an important role in the ecological integrity of many vulnerable landscapes, only a minority of lichen-forming fungi have been barcoded out of the currently accepted ∼18 000 species. Regular Sanger sequencing can be problematic when analyzing lichens since saprophytic, endophytic, and parasitic fungi live intimately admixed, resulting in low-quality sequencing reads. Here, high-throughput, long-read 454 pyrosequencing in a GS FLX+ System was tested to barcode the fungal partner of 100 epiphytic lichen species from Switzerland using fungal-specific primers when amplifying the full internal transcribed spacer region (ITS). The present study shows the potential of DNA barcoding using pyrosequencing, in that the expected lichen fungus was successfully sequenced for all samples except one. Alignment solutions such as BLAST were found to be largely adequate for the generated long reads. In addition, the NCBI nucleotide database-currently the most complete database for lichen-forming fungi-can be used as a reference database when identifying common species, since the majority of analyzed lichens were identified correctly to the species or at least to the genus level. However, several issues were encountered, including a high sequencing error rate, multiple ITS versions in a genome (incomplete concerted evolution), and in some samples the presence of mixed lichen-forming fungi (possible lichen chimeras).

Assessing Landscape Vulnerability to Wildfire in the USA

Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that has not been explicitly defined, particularly with regard to wildfire. Vulnerability more broadly is defined by three primary components: exposure to the stressor, sensitivity to a range of stressor variability, and resilience following exposure. In this synthesis, we define vulnerability in the context of wildfire. We first identify the components of a guiding framework for a vulnerability assessment with respect to wildfire. We then address retrospective assessments of wildfire vulnerability and the data that have been developed and utilized to complete these assessments. Finally, we review the modeling efforts that allow for predictive and probabilistic assessment of future vulnerability. Throughout the synthesis, we highlight gaps in the research, data availability, and models used to complete vulnerability assessments.

Building Watershed Management Capacity in Nigeria: Expanding the Role of Agriculture Colleges

Developing countries face many critical social, agricultural, and natural resource-related issues where watershed management plays a prominent role. Short-term gains in productivity often occur at the expense of long term system resiliency needed to achieve sustainability. Post-secondary (tertiary) education institutions are underfunded and hampered by bureaucratic inertia limiting their relevance toward addressing emerging water resources concerns. As populations urbanize, rural constituencies continue to lose influence. Using the case of Samaru College of Agriculture, part of Ahmadu Bello University in north-central Nigeria, this paper identifies institutional challenges and suggests solutions to help similar institutions better address watershed management issues. Given current constraints, a watershed management curriculum could be built upon existing courses offered in related majors. Developing partnerships with an expanding private sector could help create opportunities for meaningful solutions to management issues and foster problem solving skills among students. Outside investment in increasing university capacity to address watershed education, including hiring staff focused on these issues, is justifiable given the humanitarian and security crises that have been afflicting northern Nigeria's vulnerable agricultural landscape.

Quantifying plant species diversity in coastal dunes: a piece of help from spatially constrained rarefaction

Since coastal dunes are one of the most vulnerable landscapes in Europe, their maintenance requires specific conservation and monitoring programmes. In this paper, the coastal dune systems of two natural parks located in central Italy were analyzed aiming at: (1) assessing diversity patterns of all vascular species, endemic and alien taxa in plant communities along the coast-to-inland gradient; (2) comparing these patterns between coastal sections characterized by different dynamical processes (accreting, stable and erosive coasts); and (3) testing the differences induced by the methodological approach used to characterize these patterns. Twenty-one transects were randomly positioned perpendicular to the shoreline in the whole coastal area (30 km in length), and the full spectrum of plant communities was sampled. Patterns of plant diversity were assessed using spatially explicit methods, namely spatial constrained rarefaction (SCR), able to avoid the confounding effect of spatial autocorrelation. The results show that species richness varied significantly between plant communities along the coast-to-inland gradient with the highest values at the level of mobile dunes and transition dunes. Species richness was significantly higher in stable coastal dunes than those found in accreting and in erosive dunes. In fact, sand dynamics (accumulation as well as erosion) create periodic vegetation disturbances affecting composition variability and succession. The SCR methodology avoided overestimation of species richness when compared to classical rarefaction curves. Our findings pinpointed that coastal plant communities create a highly spatially structured mosaic in which mobile dunes represent the highest compositional heterogeneity. Local managers are encouraged to consider these results for planning adequate conservation strategies.

Development challenges in karst regions: sustainable land use planning in the karst of Slovenia

The comprehensive knowledge of karst surface, caves, waters and biodiversity were examined with special emphasis on planning for environmental management and land use in karst regions using examples of projects performed by the staff from the Karst Research Institute ZRC SAZU. Based on the knowledge of karst, karst phenomena, karst waters and karst biodiversity, karstological monitoring was developed throughout the construction of expressways and planning for railways on karst terrain. Newly revealed karst phenomena were properly preserved. Regular climatic and biological monitoring were developed and implemented, as well as karstology consultation with an emphasis on the impact of the use of caves as natural assets. To understand karst, its evolution dynamics and processes, models were developed with which the study of the risk posed by dam site construction in karst areas was possible. Karst aquifers and their protection were studied using tracer tests and different methods of the transfer of contaminants through the vadose zone and underground flow connections. In assessing the vulnerability and contamination risk of groundwater, a comprehensive method was elaborated. Microorganisms and fauna of dripping water in caves were used as monitors of cave ecosystem health. By applying high-quality karstological research results from individual spheres of karstology and interdisciplinary studies, a foundation for sustainable planning of life in karst regions that will consider the natural and cultural characteristics and vulnerability of karst landscapes has been established.

Geomorphology as an indicator of the biophysical vulnerability of estuaries to coastal and flood hazards in a changing climate

Climate change is increasing the need to characterise the vulnerability of coastal landscapes to coastal and flood hazards that result in erosion and inundation. Indices, such as the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI), have emerged as useful tools with which coastal managers can prioritise areas for further detailed assessment of vulnerability, risk, resilience and adaptation options. Approaches, such as the use of an index, efficiently characterise the vulnerability of linear, one-dimensional coastal features such as coastlines; however, they do not capture variability in coastal processes affecting more complex, non-linear features, such as estuaries, or interactive effects of coastal processes between linear (e.g. coastlines) and non-linear (e.g. estuaries) landforms. We present an approach that uses geomorphology to indicate biophysical vulnerability of estuaries to coastal and flood hazards. The approach is applied to the South Coast of NSW; a wave-dominated coastline of approximately 400 km length that contains more than 100 estuaries. We demonstrate the simplicity of the approach and its utility in identifying areas requiring higher resolution assessments. Although this approach does not include socio-economic factors, we demonstrate the capacity to incorporate socio-economic components of vulnerability using regional land use mapping. We infer that the most vulnerable estuaries are characterised by large catchment areas, broad estuarine valleys, mature stages of infill, or entrances oriented towards the prevailing wave direction. The area below 15 m elevation was identified as a robust indicator of the total area of vulnerability within a catchment. This approach can be applied to one-dimensional and more complex two-dimensional landscapes, such as estuaries; integrates varying sea-level rise projections; and incorporates a wider range of hazards that operate in the coastal zone.

Evidence for nonuniform permafrost degradation after fire in boreal landscapes

AbstractFire can be a significant driver of permafrost change in boreal landscapes, altering the availability of soil carbon and nutrients that have important implications for future climate and ecological succession. However, not all landscapes are equally susceptible to fire‐induced change. As fire frequency is expected to increase in the high latitudes, methods to understand the vulnerability and resilience of different landscapes to permafrost degradation are needed. We present a combination of multiscale remote sensing, geophysical, and field observations that reveal details of both near‐surface (<1 m) and deeper (>1 m) impacts of fire on permafrost. Along 11 transects that span burned‐unburned boundaries in different landscape settings within interior Alaska, subsurface electrical resistivity and nuclear magnetic resonance data indicate locations where permafrost appears to be resilient to disturbance from fire, areas where warm permafrost conditions exist that may be most vulnerable to future change, and also areas where permafrost has thawed. High‐resolution geophysical data corroborate remote sensing interpretations of near‐surface permafrost and also add new high‐fidelity details of spatial heterogeneity that extend from the shallow subsurface to depths of about 10 m. Results show that postfire impacts on permafrost can be variable and depend on multiple factors such as fire severity, soil texture, soil moisture, and time since fire.

Functional Genomic Landscape of Human Breast Cancer Drivers, Vulnerabilities, and Resistance

Large-scale genomic studies have identified multiple somatic aberrations in breast cancer, including copy number alterations and point mutations. Still, identifying causal variants and emergent vulnerabilities that arise as a consequence of genetic alterations remain major challenges. We performed whole-genome small hairpin RNA (shRNA) "dropout screens" on 77 breast cancer cell lines. Using a hierarchical linear regression algorithm to score our screen results and integrate them with accompanying detailed genetic and proteomic information, we identify vulnerabilities in breast cancer, including candidate "drivers," and reveal general functional genomic properties of cancer cells. Comparisons of gene essentiality with drug sensitivity data suggest potential resistance mechanisms, effects of existing anti-cancer drugs, and opportunities for combination therapy. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this large dataset by identifying BRD4 as a potential target in luminal breast cancer and PIK3CA mutations as a resistance determinant for BET-inhibitors.

Landscape Structural Indicators as a Tool to Assess Land Use Changes in Planning for Sub-Basin Sustainability (Southeastern Brazil)

Land use is shaped by the interactions between nature and society, and these interactions can inhibit environmental sustainability and deplete the natural capital that provides the ecosystem services upon which humans depend. Urbanity Index and Landscape Vulnerability Indicator have been proposed to improve the impact interpretability of land use changes on sub-basin sustainability for local scenarios of biodiversity conservation. A time series of LandSat 5 Thematic Mapper remote sensing data from S&#227o Carlos municipality, Southeastern Brazil, for the years 1989, 2004 and 2014 revealed that land use changes in the sub-basins do not take place in a progressive and gradual way. Over the 25-year period, the main trends showed the loss and increase of forest cover so that it has remained quantitatively similar over time due to reduced agricultural land use. The aggregation of both indicators enabled the identification of greater naturalness and lower vulnerability, as well as lower naturalness and higher vulnerability under local sub-basin conditions, pointing the need for different strategies for sub-basin biodiversity conservation and sustainability. These preliminary scenarios provide a way to communicate problems of environmental sustainability at different landscape scales to the scientific community as well as to planners, policy makers and the broader public.

An Approach to Environmental Planning and Sustainable Management of Watersheds and Municipalities in Southeastern Brazil

Diagnosis of fragmentation and landscape sustainability conditions are essential to environmental planning and sustainable management of natural resources. Land use spatial patterns and landscape structural indexes (landscape metrics, Urbanity Index— UI, and Landscape Vulnerability Index—LVI) have been proposed to assess biodiversity conservation and ecological sustainability, provided by impact of land use at Middle Mogi Gua&#231u watershed and its seventeen municipalities, in 2009. Land use typologies and structural indexes values were obtained based on screen digitizing of LandSat-5 imagery, for 2009. Cluster analysis and Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance were used to test the null hypothesis of equal degrees of fragmentation and sustainability conditions among municipalities in 2009, respectively. Land use spatial pattern showed a predominantly human occupation for watershed and its municipalities, with agricultural use as the main pressure factor. Municipalities were aggregated into three clusters related to forest fragmentation: one categorized by fifteen municipalities; the second cluster (municipality of Luiz Ant&#244nio) showing the best condition, and the third group (municipality of Araraquara) with extreme fragmentation condition. Landscape metrics related with shape, size, and core areas fragments intensify edge effects, and increase habitat isolation. The watershed showed a low naturalness and an intermediate degree of vulnerability. Ecological sustainability was different among municipalities (α = 0.05, F = 32.65 and p = 0.002), with two municipalities (Analandia and Luiz Ant&#244nio) presenting the best conditions. The most committed condition was observed, in municipalities of Rinc&#227o and Guatapara. For conservation policies to be effective must focus on the creation of ecological corridors around legally protected areas, besides creation of new legal reserves, with purpose to improve biodiversity conservation and ecological sustainability of Middle Mogi Gua&#231u watershed and its municipalities.

Fragile Renegades: Offshore Banking Centers in the Global Financial Crisis

Lying at the heart of offshore finance is a basic contradiction. On the one hand, offshore finance is fundamentally driven by the desire to protect private property from the state; on the other hand, this property is itself ultimately dependent on the protection of the state. This dilemma has recently been highlighted by crises in Iceland, Ireland, and Cyprus in particular; however, there has to date been no systematic research into its implications for the stability of the global offshore system. Here we seek to fill this gap, by theoretically and empirically problematizing the geographically uneven impact of the global financial crisis on the worldwide offshore banking network. Our results indicate that the shift from territorial to nationality-based regulation under Basel encouraged a shift, in the 1990s and early 2000s, from risk-externalizing to risk-internalizing offshore banking center development. This saw a relative decline in the traditional staple of foreign bank booking — wherein the costs of backstopping a potential crisis were shifted to other states — and a concomitant growth of national banks backstopped by offshore states themselves. This growth interacted with the international geography of currency usage to produce an uneven pre-crisis landscape of offshore banking vulnerability, which materialized following the shock of the global financial crisis. In the aftermath of the crisis, the most resilient offshore centers were those which had either: 1) preserved the traditional foreign bank booking model, 2) pursued a “state capitalist” offshore banking model, wherein national bank foreign currency liabilities are hedged by sovereign foreign currency reserves, or 3) developed an exceptionally diverse and robust network of foreign funding sources.

A typology for complex social-ecological systems in mountain communities

Effective and standardized assessment of social-ecological systems is crucial for supporting increased resilience of human communities and for developing adaptation strategies. However, few analytical frameworks exist to assess the social-ecological resilience and vulnerability of different landscapes. To help fill the gap in this literature, we investigated the utility of a conceptual social-ecological systems typology by assessing 21 mountain communities in the western United States. Our results show that larger cities or urban areas are generally more resilient than smaller communities, but the variation is not particularly notable. Resilience differences are found most often among communities of different population sizes. In our sample, no community was deemed to be highly vulnerable to socialecological change. More broadly, development of standardized social-ecological systems typologies can be applied toward accommodating unique environmental niches while allowing for cross-comparisons among regions on a broader continental scale.

Comparing carbon storage of Siberian tundra and taiga permafrost ecosystems at very high spatial resolution

AbstractPermafrost‐affected ecosystems are important components in the global carbon (C) cycle that, despite being vulnerable to disturbances under climate change, remain poorly understood. This study investigates ecosystem carbon storage in two contrasting continuous permafrost areas of NE and East Siberia. Detailed partitioning of soil organic carbon (SOC) and phytomass carbon (PC) is analyzed for one tundra (Kytalyk) and one taiga (Spasskaya Pad/Neleger) study area. In total, 57 individual field sites (24 and 33 in the respective areas) have been sampled for PC and SOC, including the upper permafrost. Landscape partitioning of ecosystem C storage was derived from thematic upscaling of field observations using a land cover classification from very high resolution (2 × 2 m) satellite imagery. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling was used to explore patterns in C distribution. In both environments the ecosystem C is mostly stored in the soil (≥86%). At the landscape scale C stocks are primarily controlled by the presence of thermokarst depressions (alases). In the tundra landscape, site‐scale variability of C is controlled by periglacial geomorphological features, while in the taiga, local differences in catenary position, soil texture, and forest successions are more important. Very high resolution remote sensing is highly beneficial to the quantification of C storage. Detailed knowledge of ecosystem C storage and ground ice distribution is needed to predict permafrost landscape vulnerability to projected climatic changes. We argue that vegetation dynamics are unlikely to offset mineralization of thawed permafrost C and that landscape‐scale reworking of SOC represents the largest potential changes to C cycling.

A landscape vulnerability framework for identifying integrated conservation and adaptation pathways to climate change: the case of Madagascar’s spiny forest

Context Integrated conservation decision-making frameworks that help to design or adjust practices that are cognisant of environmental change and adaptation are urgently needed.