Land Use Cover Change Research Articles

Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Services Value in Urban Agglomerations Using Land Use/Cover Change Analysis: Case Study of Wuhan in China

The evaluation of ecosystem service value (ESV) is crucial for decision making in regional sustainable development. The close relationship between ecosystem services and land use/cover change (LUCC) is well acknowledged. However, the impact of the mutual transformation among different land use types on the temporal and spatial differences in the ESV is still unclear. To fulfill this gap, this study evaluates the ESV in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations based on LUCC, taking the spatiotemporal characteristics into consideration. The results show that (1) The land use structure in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations has undergone great changes from 2012 to 2021, and the area of cultivated land converted to forest land is the largest, which may be related to policies such as returning farmland to forests. (2) The total amount of ESV shows a downward trend, and the spatial distribution of ESV is “low in the west and high in the central and eastern regions”, which may be related to the natural factors in study area. (3) The spatial distribution of ESV in the study area will remain unchanged in the future. However, the transformation among land use types may exacerbate the reduction in the total ESV, which will have an adverse impact on the ecological environment and sustainable development of the region. This study initiates a more comprehensive framework to better reflect the real scenario of ESV, which will hopefully provide a reference for regional sustainable development.

Effects of participatory forest management programs on Land use/land cover change and its Determinants in Alle District, southwest Ethiopia

In order to create sustainable conservation policies for biodiversity, it is imperative that participatory forest management (PFM) be assessed. Forests contribute to the sustainability of the planet by controlling soil erosion in agricultural areas and by moderating the effects of climate change. However, Ethiopia's forest resources have been under intense pressure because of the increased demand for wood products and agricultural conversion. As one of the potential solutions, the PFM programme was implemented in 1990. This study set out to investigate the effects of the PFM programme on land use and land cover (LULC) in the Alle district of southwest Ethiopia, as well as the variables influencing community involvement and the obstacles to PFM implementation and community involvement. Changes in forest cover were detected using Landsat images from 1992, 2012, and 2022 obtained from Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Images were obtained during the dry season and were cloud-free. A total of 240 respondents were chosen by means of a straightforward random sampling technique, and survey data were collected using questionnaires, interviews, and field observations. Data were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.5, ERDAS Imagine 2015, SPSS version 20, and Excel 2010. The change in forest cover shows an increasing trend from 2012 to 2022. Again, grassland and wetland coverage in this study decreased rapidly. In the years 2012–2022, forest land increased from 462.7ha (74.8 %), to 569.8ha (92.1 %), while, the agricultural land, grassland, and wetland were reduced from 109.5ha (17.7 %) to 37.8ha (6.1 %), 31.9ha (5.2 %) to 0.0ha (0.0 %); 14.1 ha (2.3 %), to 10.8 ha (1.7 %) respectively. There have been beneficial developments in the forests over the last 30 years. The binary logistic regression model disclose that, land ownership had a negative impact on forest management participation, while other factors such as gender, education level, family size, TLU, access to credit, training, and law enforcement had a positive and significant (p < 0.05) effect on PFM practices. LULC change in study area causes rapid wetland ecosystem deterioration, which may result in the extinction of the most significant and ecologically valuable species and a loss of biodiversity in the environment. In this context, developing an integrated participatory approach requires rapid attention, and all farmers and stakeholders must be actively involved in PFM programs.

Microclimatic Zonation and Climatic Variability of Sikkim Himalaya

The Köppen classification of climate integrates precipitation and temperature information with natural vegetation patterns to create a precise representation of any particular region's climate. This integration depends on the empirical relationship of climate and vegetation, which indicates that distinct locations in the same class have similar vegetation attributes. Köppen climatic classification factors are explained and Sikkim's climate characteristics are regionalized based on it. The method for making representations of air temperatures and precipitation has been described, and an illustration of Sikkim's climatic zones with variability is generated as a result of these changes. The geographic pattern of climatic types and subtypes in Sikkim has been briefly addressed using an available high-resolution gridded dataset (ERA5-Land). This is described that the constraints of microclimatic zonation emanate from the empirical prerequisite of climate classifications, as well as the nature of data selection and the methodologies employed for climate variability analysis and classification. Based on the Köppen classification for the long term (1980–2021), the Sikkim Himalaya contains three primary climatic classes, particularly ETc (cold, tundra, and cool summer), Cfc (moderately warm, humid, and cool summer), and Cfb (moderately warm, humid, and warm summer). Climate variability on the basis of temperature and precipitation change with respect to 1980–2021 over the entire Sikkim Himalaya concludes that the climatic pattern of the Sikkim has been changed from cold-dry to warm-wet. The alteration in the corresponding climatic pattern is further supported by changes in LULC and NDVI. The results suggest that the precipitation change in the past two decades (1980–2000) is negative, while a significant positive change has been noticed in the recent two decades (2001–2021). Subsequently, the number of extremely wet days decreases in the entire ETc and Cfc climate zones. Regardless, the southern part of the Cfb climatic zone has experienced an increase in extremely wet days. This study's findings will significantly contribute to the development of future policies and initiatives by providing insights crucial for achieving sustainable development, environmental protection, and climate change adaptation.

Driving mechanisms and multi-scenario simulation of land use change based on National Land Survey Data: a case in Jianghan Plain, China

The Jianghan Plain is simultaneously responsible for ecological protection, food security and urbanization, and land use conflicts are prominent. Revealing the driving mechanism of land use/cover change (LUCC) and simulating the land use pattern can help to coordinate the land use conflicts in the future. Utilizing the National Land Survey Data (NLSD) of Jiangling County in Jianghan Plain (2011–2020) and the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, this paper analyzed the characteristics of land use evolution, applied the random forest classification (RFC) to analyze the driving mechanism, simulated the 2035 land use pattern under three scenarios of natural development, planning guidance and ecological protection through Markov and Cellular Automaton based on multiple random seeds (CARS) models, and proposed several countermeasures. The study found that: 1) From 2011 to 2020, town construction land increased, village construction land, agricultural land and ecological land decreased. 2) The factors driving LUCC were socio-economic factors, spatial factors, and natural factors in descending order. 3) In the three scenarios, the trend of construction land expansion, agricultural land and ecological land encroachment is inevitable by 2035. 4) It is imperative to actively advocate for large-scale mechanization and informatization of agricultural production, encourage the repurposing of idle and inefficiently used construction land, facilitate multi-purpose land utilization, and implement a policy of locally balancing occupation and compensation for cultivated and ecological land. 5) When employing the PLUS model to simulate LUCC, using continuous NLSD yielded more accurate results than remote sensing image interpretation data. This study offers a theoretical basis for the coordinated development of land use in Jianghan Plain, and presents a method to enhance the simulation accuracy of the PLUS model.

Transformation of coastal wetlands in the Sundarban Delta (1999–2020)

Spanning across Bangladesh and India, the Sundarban Delta consists of over a thousand islands, the majority of which are protected. These islands are important for the rich biodiversity and unique species found here. However, these islands are also at the forefront of climate change due to the impact of rising sea levels and extreme weather events. Therefore, we analyzed the long-term transformations in the land use land cover (LULC) between 1999 and 2020. We used a variety of geostatistical methods, including optimized hot spots cold spots and join count statistics, to examine the spatial patterns of changes in LULC across the study area. The results of our analysis revealed substantial changes in the spatial patterns of mangroves and pond aquaculture. The changes revealed a distinct north–south demarcation in spatial patterns, in the form of clustering of mangroves in the uninhabited islands located in the south and pond aquaculture clustered in the northern inhabited islands. The loss of area under mangroves was concentrated in the southern edges of the islands, which were most exposed to erosion in the open ocean. Nevertheless, we observed an increase in the area under mangroves in some of the northern riverine islands (17 km2). In the case of pond aquaculture, it was mostly concentrated in inhabited islands in the north. Most of the expansions were concentrated in the Indian part of the delta (631 km2). It is noteworthy that because of effective conservation measures, there was very limited overlap between mangroves and pond aquaculture, denoting the conversion of agricultural land to pond aquaculture instead of mangroves. Thus, the results of our study revealed the importance of local level conservation policies and anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation and local level disturbance like over-extraction of water and pollution, on the changing patterns of LULC across this unique, fragile ecosystem. Future studies may incorporate a finer resolution time series of LULC changes over time and space to enable more detailed analysis.

LULC changes in the region of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project using GIS and remote sensing technique

&lt;p&gt;Proper understanding of LULC changes is considered an indispensable element for modeling. It is also central for planning and management activities as well as understanding the earth as a system. This study examined LULC changes in the region of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project using remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques. Data from the United States Geological Survey's Landsat satellite, specifically the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM), the Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM), and the Operational Land Imager (OLI), were used. The Landsat 5 thematic mapper (TM) sensor data was processed for the year 1990; the Landsat 7 SLC data was processed for the year 2000; and the 2020 data was collected from Operation Land Image (OLI). Landsat images were extracted based on the years 1990, 2000, and 2020, which were used to develop three land cover maps. The region of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project was divided into the following five primary LULC classes: settlements and barren lands; croplands; water bodies; grassland; and other areas. Within the three periods (1990–2000, 2000–2020, and 1990–2020), grassland has increased from 9%, 20%, and 40%, respectively. On the other hand, the change in the remaining four (4) classes varied. The findings suggest that population growth, changes in climate, and deforestation during this thirty-year period have been responsible for the variations in the LULC classes. The variations in the LULC changes could have a significant influence on the hydrological processes in the form of evapotranspiration, interception, and infiltration. This study will therefore assist in establishing patterns and will enable Ghana's resource managers to forecast realistic change scenarios that would be helpful for the management of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project.&lt;/p&gt;

Estimating terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage change in the YREB caused by land-use change under SSP-RCPs scenarios

Terrestrial ecosystems, as an essential carbon sink of atmospheric CO2, play an important role in balancing the global carbon cycle. Land-use and land-cover changes (LUCCs) are the major factors in terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) change. However, they are not yet sure how future LUCCs would affect the TECS in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) to meet China's carbon-neutral goal. We simulated eight land-use change scenarios and used these to estimate the YREB's TECS and its 2020–2060 variation by coupling the spatially explicit projections of LUCCs under the latest IPCC, combining shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with datasets on terrestrial ecosystem carbon density dataset. Results show that: 1) the total TECS of the YREB in 2020 is ∼28.07 Gt. Spatially, TECS in the YREB focused on Sichuan and Yunnan (∼13.35 Gt), which plays a crucial role in balancing the regional carbon cycle; its losses are in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Hunan provinces; Yunnan is the potential region with future carbon sink enhancement in the YREB. 2) Compared to the TECS change under eight land-use scenarios, the low-carbon and sustainable development pathways are the priority chosen by humans. 3) The replacement of vast forest land with cropland and urban expansion are the key factor of TECS change in the YREB. 4) Land management policies (i.e., Cultivated land requisition-compensation balance) should balance the conflicts between food self-sufficiency and the carbon sink rather than only the dynamic balance in quantity. Our study aims to provide data support for the government in planning future development pathways and refining carbon emission reduction strategies to assist in carbon trading and compensation and achieve the YREB's dual-carbon goal.

Streamflow response to land use/land cover change in the tropical Andes using multiple SWAT model variants

Study regionTropical watershed in the Colombian Andes, the Chico River (CR) watershed. Study focusHydrological models are widely used to project the impacts of LULC (Land Use/Land Cover) change on water budget. However, their ability to produce reliable predictions depends on how accurately they represent the role of vegetation in the watershed’s water balance. We analyze how different representations of Leaf Area Index (LAI) affect streamflow responses to LULC change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We also examine streamflow response to 100 % pasture cover (PAS), 100 % forest cover (FOR), and a control scenario using the original SWAT model, SWAT-T, and a proposed new variant (SWAT-Tb), which improves LAI bimodal representation for tropical regions. New hydrological insights for the regionSWAT-T and SWAT-Tb reproduce observed LAI and streamflow in the CR watershed. However, SWAT-T restricts LAI simulation to unimodal seasonality, while the original SWAT reproduces streamflow but not LAI seasonality. Results using SWAT-T (unimodal LAI) and SWAT-Tb (constant and bimodal LAI) show streamflow increases during the dry seasons for the FOR scenario and decreases for the PAS scenario. Conversely, the original SWAT, with its default LAI representation, tends to underestimate and overestimate streamflow changes in the FOR and PAS scenarios, respectively. Our results highlight that an unrealistic LAI representation can mislead LULC change impact assessments on streamflow in the tropical Andes.

Coupled and Coordinated Relationship between Land-Use Cover Change and Ecosystem Services Value in Horqin Sandy Land

Coupled and Coordinated Relationship between Land-Use Cover Change and Ecosystem Services Value in Horqin Sandy Land

Predicting land use and land cover change dynamics in the eThekwini Municipality: a machine learning approach with Landsat imagery

ABSTRACT Monitoring and providing accurate land use and land cover (LULC) change information is vital for sustainable environmental planning. This study used Landsat imagery from 2002 to 2022 to create updated LULC change maps for the eThekwini Municipality. Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were used to conduct these LULC classifications, with XGBoost achieving the highest accuracy (80.57%). The generated maps revealed a significant decrease in cropland and an increase in impervious surfaces. As such, this research established a framework for continuous LULC mapping and highlighted Landsat 9’s potential in LULC classifications.

Assessing changes in the ecosystem service value in response to land use and land cover dynamics in Malawi.

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are inevitable outcomes of socioeconomic changes and greatly affect ecosystem services. Our study addresses the critical gap in the existing literature by providing the first comprehensive national analysis of LULC changes and their impacts on ecosystem service values (ESVs) in Malawi. We assessed changes in ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULC changes using the benefit transfer method in ArcGIS 10.6 software. Our findings revealed a significant increase in grasslands, croplands, and urban areas and a notable decline in forests, shrubs, wetlands, and water bodies. Grassland, cropland, and built-up areas expanded by 52%, 1%, and 23.2%, respectively. In contrast, permanent wetlands, barren land, and water bodies declined by 27.6%, 34.3%, and 1%, respectively. The ESV declined from US$90.87 billion in 2001 to US$85.60 billion in 2022, marking a 5.8% reduction. Provisioning services increased by 0.5% while regulating, supporting, and cultural ecosystem service functions declined by 12.2%, 3.16%, and 3.22%, respectively. The increase in provisioning services was due to the expansion of cropland. However, the loss of regulating, supporting, and cultural services was mainly due to the loss of natural ecosystems. Thus, environmental policy should prioritise the conservation and restoration of natural ecosystems to enhance the ESV of Malawi.

Responses of Ecosystem Services to Land Use/Cover Changes in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas: A Case Study of the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration

The rapid expansion of built-up land, a hallmark of accelerated urbanization, has emerged as a pivotal factor contributing to regional climate change and the degradation of ecosystem functions. The decline in ecosystem service value (ESV) has consequently garnered significant attention in global sustainable development research. The Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration is crucial for promoting the construction of the Yellow River Economic Belt in China, with its ecological status increasingly gaining prominence. This study investigated the ESV response to land use/cover change (LUCC) through the elasticity coefficient in order to analyze the degree of disturbance caused by land use activities on ecosystem functions in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. This analysis was based on the examination of LUCC characteristics and ESV from 1990 to 2020. The findings reveal that (1) the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration experienced a continuous increase in the proportion of built-up land from 1990 to 2020, alongside a highly complex transfer between different land use types, characterized by diverse transfer trajectories. The most prominent features were noted to be the rapid expansion of built-up land and the simultaneous decline in agricultural land. (2) The analysis of four landscape pattern indices, encompassing Shannon’s diversity index, indicates that the continuous development of urbanization has led to increased fragmentation in land use and decreased connectivity. However, obvious spatial distribution differences exist among different districts and counties. (3) The ESV was revised using the normalized difference vegetation index, revealing a slight decrease in the total ESV of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration. However, significant differences were observed among districts and counties. The number of counties and districts exhibiting low and high ESVs continuously increased, whereas those with intermediate levels generally remained unchanged. (4) The analysis of the elasticity coefficient reveals that LUCC exerts a substantial disturbance and influence on ecosystem services, with the strongest disturbance ability occurring from 2000 to 2010. The elasticity coefficient exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity across both the entire urban agglomeration and within individual cities. Notably, Qingdao and Jinan, the dual cores of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration, exhibit markedly distinct characteristics. These disparities are closely related to their development foundations in 1990 and their evolution over the past 30 years. The ESV response to LUCC displays significant variation across different time periods and spatial locations. Consequently, it is imperative to formulate dynamic management policies on the basis of regional characteristics. Such policies aim to balance social and economic development while ensuring ecological protection, thereby promoting the social and economic advancement and ecological environment preservation of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration.

Land Use Change Impacts over the Indus Delta: A Case Study of Sindh Province, Pakistan

Land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are vital indicators for assessing the dynamic relationship between humans and nature, particularly in diverse and evolving landscapes. This study employs remote sensing (RS) data and machine learning algorithms (MLAs) to investigate LULCC dynamics within the Indus River Delta region of Sindh, Pakistan. The focus is on tracking the trajectories of land use changes within mangrove forests and associated ecosystem services over twenty years. Our findings reveal a modest improvement in mangrove forest cover in specific areas, with an increase from 0.28% to 0.4%, alongside a slight expansion of wetland areas from 2.95% to 3.19%. However, significant increases in cropland, increasing from 22.76% to 28.14%, and built-up areas, increasing from 0.71% to 1.66%, pose risks such as altered sedimentation and runoff patterns as well as habitat degradation. Additionally, decreases in barren land from 57.10% to 52.7% and a reduction in rangeland from 16.16% to 13.92% indicate intensified land use conversion and logging activities. This study highlights the vulnerability of mangrove ecosystems in the Indus Delta to agricultural expansion, urbanization, resource exploitation, and land mismanagement. Recommendations include harmonizing developmental ambitions with ecological conservation, prioritizing integrated coastal area management, reinforcing mangrove protection measures, and implementing sustainable land use planning practices. These actions are essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and human communities.

Evaluation of ecosystem services vis-à-vis perceptions and attitudes of local communities towards Wetland conservation in Kashmir Himalaya

Valuation of ecosystem services along with the perceptions and attitudes of local communities is crucial for sustainable management of wetlands. This study assesses changes in wetland area and bathymetry, and provides insights into local community's perceptions of ecosystem services, and attitudes towards wetland conservation in Kashmir Himalaya, India. High-resolution satellite data was used to assess land use land cover (LULC) changes within the wetland. The bathymetry changes were assessed by performing depth measurements before and after dredging in 2019 and 2022, respectively. Perceptions of ecosystem services and attitudes of residents towards wetland management were examined through surveys in 182 households from the target population of 334 families. The findings reveal that Khushalsar wetland provides important provisioning (food, fodder, thatching mats, fish, vegetables), regulating (flood control, carbon sequestration, water quality improvement), supporting (habitat, biomass and oxygen production, water and nutrient cycling), and cultural services (aesthetic, education, spiritual). The economic benefits from provisioning services range from 240 USD/yr for minor vegetables to 1201–1802 USD/0.05 ha/yr for Nelumbo nucifera. The analysis of LULC changes indicates a ∼16.5% reduction in wetland area from 1980 to 2017, with a further ∼10% decrease from 2017 to 2021, resulting in an overall loss of ∼25% (27.1 ha) in wetland area from 1980 to 2021. Bathymetric assessments reveal an increase in maximum depth from 427 cm in 2019 to 547 cm in 2022 following dredging activities. Socioeconomic analysis showed the significance of Khushalsar wetland as an important source of livelihood for local communities. Survey results indicate that all the respondents have positive attitudes towards the protection and management of the Khushalsar wetland. The study demonstrates that human conservation activities have significantly contributed to positive changes in the wetland such as increase in depth and flood storage capacity. The study concludes that government protection along with active participation of local communities is indispensable for sustainable management of wetlands.

Investigating the impact of urban growth on land use using spatial autocorrelation methods in Konya/Türkiye.

Land use land cover (LULC) change, global environmental change, and sustainable change are frequently discussed topics in research at the moment. It is important to determine the historical LULC change process for effective environmental planning and the most appropriate use of land resources. This study analysed the spatial autocorrelation of the land use structure in Konya between 1990 and 2018. For this, Global and Local Moran's I indices based on land use data from 122 neighbourhoods and hot spot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*) methods were applied to measure the spatial correlation of changes and to determine statistically significant hot and cold spatial clusters. According to the research results, the growth of urban areas has largely destroyed the most productive agricultural lands in the region. This change showed high spatial clustering both on an area and a proportional basis in the northern and southern parts of the city. On the other hand, the growth in the industrial area suppressed the pasture areas the most in the north-eastern region of the city, and this region showed high spatial clustering on both spatial and proportional scales.

Integrated assessment of groundwater quality dynamics and Land use/land cover changes in rapidly urbanizing semi-arid region

Rapid urbanization worldwide, poses numerous environmental challenges between escalating land use land cover (LULC) changes and groundwater quality dynamics. The main objective of this study was to investigate the dynamics of groundwater quality and LULC changes in Sargodha district, Punjab, Pakistan. Groundwater hydrochemistry reveals acceptable pH levels (<8) but total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC) and HCO3− showed dynamic fluctuations by exceeding WHO limits. Piper diagrams, indicated dominance by magnesium and bicarbonate types, underscoring the influence of natural processes and anthropogenic activities. Major ion relationships in 2010, 2015, and 2021 showed a high correlation (R2 > 0.85) between Na+ and Cl−, suggesting salinization. whereas, the poor correlation (<0.17) between Ca2+ and HCO3− does not support calcite dissolution as the primary process affecting groundwater composition. The examination of nitrate contamination in groundwater across the years 2010, 2015, and 2021 was found to be high in the municipal sewage zone, suggesting a prevailing issue of nitrate contamination attributed to urban activities. The Nitrate Pollution Index (NPI) reveals a concerning trend, with a higher proportion of samples classified under moderate to high pollution categories in 2015 and 2021 compared to 2010. The qualitative assessment of nitrate concentration on spatiotemporal scale showed lower values in 2010 while a consistent rise from 2015 to 2021 in north-east and western parts of district. Likewise, NPI was high in the north-eastern and south-western regions in 2010, then reduced in subsequent years, which may be attributed to effective waste management practices and alterations in agricultural practices. The health risk assessment of 2010 indicated Total Health Hazard Quotient (THQ) within the standard limit, while in 2015 and 2021, elevated health risk was observed. This study emphasizes the need to use multiple approaches to groundwater management for sustainable land use planning and regulations that prioritize groundwater quality conservation.

Patterns of Urban Sprawl and Agricultural Land Loss in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Cases of the Ugandan Cities of Kampala and Mbarara

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is undergoing rapid urbanization, yet research comparing urban expansion and agricultural land loss in peri-urban areas is scarce. This study utilizes multi-temporal Landsat imagery to examine the impact of urban growth on agricultural land and fragile ecosystems in Kampala (a mega city) and Mbarara (a regional urban center) in Uganda. We distinguish between random and systematic land-use and land-cover (LULC) transitions in the landscape. The results reveal substantial urban expansion. Kampala’s urban area surged from 7.14% in 1989 to 55.10% in 2015, while Mbarara increased from 6.37% in 2002 to 30.95% in 2016. Correspondingly, agricultural land decreased, from 48.02% to 16.69% in Kampala, and from 39.92% to 32.08% in Mbarara. Notably, a significant proportion of urban growth in both cities encroached upon agricultural land (66.7% in Kampala and 57.8% in Mbarara). The transition from agricultural to built-up areas accounted for 14.72% to 28.45% of the landscapes. Additionally, unsustainable practices led to the conversion of wetlands and forests to agricultural land, with approximately 13% of wetlands and 23% of Savannah and forests being converted between 2001 and 2015. These findings underscore the necessity of monitoring LULC changes for sustainable urban growth management, emphasizing the importance of preserving agricultural land and ecosystems to ensure present and future food security. This research contributes to the understanding of urbanization’s impact on peri-urban agricultural land and ecosystems in SSA, providing insights that are crucial for informed urban planning and policy formulation aimed at sustainable development in the region.

Predicting Land Use Changes under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway–Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios to Support Sustainable Planning in High-Density Urban Areas: A Case Study of Hangzhou, Southeastern China

Amidst the challenges posed by global climate change and accelerated urbanization, the structure and distribution of land use are shifting dramatically, exacerbating ecological and land-use conflicts, particularly in China. Effective land resource management requires accurate forecasts of land use and cover change (LUCC). However, the future trajectory of LUCC, influenced by climate change and urbanization, remains uncertain. This study developed an integrated multi-scenario framework by combining system dynamics and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future LUCC in high-density urban regions under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)–Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results showed the following: (1) From 2020 to 2050, cultivated land, unused land, and water are projected to decrease, while construction land is expected to increase. (2) Future land use patterns exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity across three scenarios. Construction land will expand in all districts of Hangzhou, particularly in the main urban areas. Under the SSP585 scenario, the expansion of construction land is most significant, while it is the least under the SSP126 scenario. (3) Distinct factors drive the expansion of different land use types. The digital elevation model is the predominant factor for the expansion of forest and grassland, contributing 19.25% and 30.76%, respectively. Night light contributes the most to cultivated land and construction land, at 13.94% and 20.35%, respectively. (4) The average land use intensity (LUI) in central urban districts markedly surpasses that in the surrounding suburban areas, with Xiacheng having the highest LUI and Chun’an the lowest. Under the SSP126 scenario, the area with increased LUI is significantly smaller than under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These findings offer valuable guidance for sustainable planning and built environment management in Hangzhou and similarly situated urban centers worldwide.

Integrated use of the CA–Markov model and the Trends.Earth module to enhance the assessment of land cover degradation

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of assessing future land cover degradation status by combining the forecasting capabilities of the Cellular-Automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) models in Idris Selva with the land cover degradation (LCD) model in the Trends.Earth module. The study focuses on the upper Zambezi Basin (UZB) in southern Africa, which is one of the regions with high rates of land degradation globally. Landsat satellite imagery is utilised to generate historical (1993–2023) land cover and land use (LCLU) maps for the UZB, while the global European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) LCLU maps are obtained from the Trends.Earth module. The CA-Markov chain model is employed to predict future LCLU changes between 2023 and 2043. The LCD model in the Trends.Earth module in QGIS 3.32.3 is then used to assess the historical and forecasted land cover degradation status. The findings reveal that land cover degradation maps produced from local LCLU classifications provide more detailed information compared to those produced from the global ESA CCI LCLU product. Between 2023 and 2043, the UZB is predicted to experience a net reduction of approximately 3.2 million hectares of forest cover, with an average annual reduction rate of − 0.13%. In terms of land cover degradation, the UZB is forecasted to remain generally stable, with 87% and 96% of the total land cover area expected to be stable during the periods 2023–2033 and 2033–2043, respectively, relative to the base years 2023 and 2033. Reduction in forest cover due to the expansion of grassland, human settlements, and cropland is projected to drive land cover degradation, while improvements in forest cover are anticipated through the conversion of grassland and cropland into forested areas. It appears that using locally produced LCLU with high-resolution images provides better assessments of land degradation in the Trends.Earth module than using global LCLU products. By leveraging the opportunities offered by models with capacity to predict LCLU such as the CA–Markov model and the capabilities of the LCD model, as evidenced in this study, valuable forecasted information can be effectively obtained for monitoring land cover degradation. This information can then be used to implement targeted interventions that align with the objective of realising the United Nations' land degradation neutral world target by 2030.

Ecosystem health assessment of East Kolkata Wetlands, India: Implications for environmental sustainability

The East Kolkata Wetlands (EKW) in Kolkata, India, span 12,500 ha and are a vital ecological zone providing several benefits, including water purification, flood control, and biodiversity support. This study investigated land use and land cover (LULC) alterations in the EKW from 1991 to 2023, using a random forest (RF) machine learning model. Significant LULC changes were observed over the 32 years, with wetland areas decreasing from 91.2 km2 in 1991 to 33.4 km2 in 2023, reflecting substantial habitat loss and reduced ecosystem services. Conversely, agricultural land expanded from 27.8 km2 to 58.7 km2, driven by economic and food production needs, and built-up areas increased dramatically from 0.2 km2 to 10.5 km2, indicating rapid urbanization. This study evaluated the health, resilience, and ecosystem functionality of EKW by analysing human-induced land use changes and using ecological indicators and landscape metrics. Landscape and class level metrics such as PLAND, largest patch index (LPI), total edge (TE), edge density (ED), number of patches (NP), and patch density (PD) were used to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of the wetlands. This study revealed a significant increase in fragmentation, with the number of patches increasing from 2689 in 1991 to 4532 in 2023, despite a consistent decrease in core wetland areas. Ecosystem health indicators, such as the ecosystem structure index (ESI) and landscape deviation degree (LDD), were used to assess landscape metrics and fragmentation changes. The ESI and other metrics revealed significant temporal fluctuations, providing insights into landscape structure, connectivity, and heterogeneity. The ESI improved from 0.87 in 1991 to 1.03 in 2023, indicating enhanced connectivity and diversity. Conversely, the LDD increased from 20.6% to 56.85%, indicating a shift towards impervious surfaces. The vegetation productivity and ecosystem health index (EHI) decreased, indicating biodiversity loss and reduced carbon sequestration. The EHI also dropped from 0.67 to 0.55, signifying ongoing environmental stress. This study emphasizes the need for conservation efforts to maintain the ecological integrity of the EKW amidst urbanization and land use changes and recommends a balanced approach for sustainable urban development and enhanced wetland resilience.