Evaluation and Prediction of Ecosystem Services Value in Urban Agglomerations Using Land Use/Cover Change Analysis: Case Study of Wuhan in China

Abstract

The evaluation of ecosystem service value (ESV) is crucial for decision making in regional sustainable development. The close relationship between ecosystem services and land use/cover change (LUCC) is well acknowledged. However, the impact of the mutual transformation among different land use types on the temporal and spatial differences in the ESV is still unclear. To fulfill this gap, this study evaluates the ESV in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations based on LUCC, taking the spatiotemporal characteristics into consideration. The results show that (1) The land use structure in the Wuhan Urban Agglomerations has undergone great changes from 2012 to 2021, and the area of cultivated land converted to forest land is the largest, which may be related to policies such as returning farmland to forests. (2) The total amount of ESV shows a downward trend, and the spatial distribution of ESV is “low in the west and high in the central and eastern regions”, which may be related to the natural factors in study area. (3) The spatial distribution of ESV in the study area will remain unchanged in the future. However, the transformation among land use types may exacerbate the reduction in the total ESV, which will have an adverse impact on the ecological environment and sustainable development of the region. This study initiates a more comprehensive framework to better reflect the real scenario of ESV, which will hopefully provide a reference for regional sustainable development.