Land Use Cover Change Research Articles

Synergistic approach for land use and land cover dynamics prediction in Uttarakhand using cellular automata and Artificial neural network

Alterations in Land use and Land cover (LULC) stand out as a key catalyst for shifts in global climate patterns, environmental conditions, and ecological dynamics. In order to further enhance our comprehension of the effects of variability and climate shifts on the environment, Remote sensing and GIS analytical approaches have been thoroughly explored and are reflected in an imperative vision. Thus, the objective of this study is to model Uttarakhand’s LULC pattern for 2032 and analyse changes in Uttarakhand's LULC trend between 1992 and 2022. LULC change mapping was conducted utilizing a semi-automated hybrid classification approach for high level of accuracy which integrates both Maximum likelihood and Object based image analysis classification techniques on Landsat datasets. The machine learning techniques of Cellular automata and Artificial neural networks (CA-ANN) within MOLUSCE plugin of QGIS have been applied to model future LULC patterns. The accuracy assessment results showed that the overall accuracy of LULC for the years 1992, 2002, 2012, and 2022 was 96.94 %, 97.77 %, 98.61 % and 98.87 % respectively, and the overall kappa statistics coefficient was 0.92, 0.95, 0.94 and 0.95 respectively. The simulated and projected LULC map for 2022 implies a substantially high level of accuracy, with an overall Kappa coefficient value of 0.77 % and 85.39 % of overall correctness. Then, LULC changes for the year 2032 are predicted using CA-ANN. The observed alterations between 1992 and 2032 are significant, characterized by an augmentation in built-up areas, open land, and water bodies, alongside a decline in snow-covered regions, vegetation cover. Whereas, a slight increase is seen in Forested areas. Planners and policy makers aiming to accomplish a more sustainable future and efficient management of the environment will find the changes in LULC over a prolonged period of time to be a useful asset for optimal land use planning.

Impact of land use/land cover change on surface water hydrology in Akaki river catchment, Awash basin, Ethiopia

Watershed reactions to environmental changes is critical for water resource use and management planning. The change in land use/land cover (LUCC) alters surface water hydrology and water balance, subsequently it affects the availability of water resources. This study examined Akaki River catchment surface hydrological responses to future land use scenarios. The future LULC simulated using Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (CA-Markov) model in IDRISI software for 2031, 2041, and 2051 under Business as Usual (BAU) and Forest Patch Protection (FPP) scenarios. Water yield (WY), sediment export (SE), and soil loss (SL) were simulated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. The findings indicate that under BAU, forest and settlement areas increased 42.64% and 31.47%, whereas water body, grass land, and agriculture dropped 31.99%, 25.72%, and 10.4%, respectively, from 2021 to 2051. The FPP scenario shows a 66.42% increase in forest coverage and a 31.97% decrease in cultivated land between 2021 and 2051. Overall settlement expansion will expand by 31.44%, while water body and grassland will decline by 11.12% and 24.9%. As a result of LULC changes in BAU scenario, the proportions of WY (4.36%), SE (26%), and SL (22.45%) increased. The hydrological components exhibited more gradual variations of 0.55%, 18.8%, and 14.24% for the WY, SE, and SL, respectively, under the FPP scenario. Therefore, the alteration has resulted in a concerning state within the area, necessitating the implementation of comprehensive management techniques to restore the hydrology of the catchment.

Impact of changing urban form and production-living-ecological space on changing ecosystem services of a smart city of Eastern India, Durgapur.

Worldwide land use land cover (LULC) transformation become a serious issue in the last few decades due to its immense importance in environmental and human well-being perspectives. Expansion of urban areas at the expense of natural land covers and changing urban form is mainly responsible for changing environmental conditions. This study focused on identifying the impacts of LULC change on environmental conditions through the assessment of changing ecosystem services (ESs) of the Durgapur Municipal Corporation (DMC) from 1990 to 2020. Changing ESs are assessed based on changing urban forms and production-living-ecological space (PLES) components. Results found that the compactness of urban areas is increasing along with the outward expansion. The core urban area of DMC has risen from 8.11% to 30.11% during 1990-2020. Similarly, living space increased from 15.57% to 42.60%, production space decreased from 53.06% to 25.59%, and ecological space fluctuated from 1990 to 2020. This transformation of PLES components negatively affects DMC's environmental condition, affecting the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These significant results may be utilized to understand changing environmental conditions and priority issues for DMC's future sustainable urban development.

Spatio-temporal analysis of riverbank changes using remote sensing and geographic information system

Fluvial hazards cause severe damage to human lives and properties. The increased intrusion of anthropogenic activities into natural hydrological cycles has increased hazard severity and confounded river channel dynamics. The present article studies the epochal channel erosion, accretion, and unaltered sites along the 42 km stretch between the Polavaram project and Dowleshwaram Barrage on the Godavari River. Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) techniques were used to identify changes in river morphology. A total of five decades of Landsat images were analyzed, classifying the land use with a supervised learning Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm and an ISO cluster unsupervised algorithm to delineate the rivers and study the influence of land use land cover change (LULCC) on river morphology. Accretion and erosion channel changes during the assessment period were measured at all reaches, and the possible driving mechanisms of morphological alterations were studied.The results indicate the susceptibility of human dwellings and agricultural lands to floods due to the shifting of the highly vibrant river shoreline. The study provides the most recent information on Godavari River dynamics. These aspects of the river's evolution will aid in planning and management in the lower portions, which have not been well understood. River channel alterations can be quantitatively and economically analyzed using Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) data.

Analysis of Land Use and Land Cover Changes and Trends in Fantalle Range Land, East Shewa Zone, Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

This study was conducted in Fantalle Range lands in East Shewa zone of, Oromia Region, Ethiopia, to assess land use land cover changes, trends, drivers and their socioeconomics. Household surveys were conducted through simple random sampling to collect qualitative data. Qualitative data are used to investigate the causes and effects of land use and land cover changes. SPSS software (version 20) was used for data analysis, and descriptive research methods were adopted. Additionally, map processing was done using ERDAS Imagine (version 9.1) and ArcGIS (version 10.1). The land use land cover classification activity was started by obtaining Landsat images of 1972, 1990, 2000 and 2020 at different intervals from the Earth Explorer (USGS) from the Landsat 4, Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8, respectively. Land use land cover change (LULCC) maps are generated based on year classification. Range land, agricultural land, woody vegetation, bare land and settlement are the five main LULCC categories generated from satellite data. The findings show that in the presence of LULCC, agricultural land, settlements and bare land expand significantly, while range land and woodland show a decreasing trend. The classification results of the 1972 image show that rangeland/grazing land accounts for the largest proportion of the land in this area, accounting for 31.6%. In addition, due to various factors, the number of livestock owned in pastoral areas is also decreasing. The main cause of changes in livestock types is drought, which can cause different impacts, such as feed and water shortages and health problems. Therefore, intervention in land use manipulation is needed to maintain ecosystems and natural resources. Furthermore, rangeland policies should be developed to maintain pastoral and pastoral systems.

Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in Amibara and Awash-fentale districts, Ethiopia

The analysis of land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes is crucial for rural development planning, food security monitoring, and natural resource conservation. This study focuses on detecting LULC changes in Amibara and Awash-Fentale districts from 1985 to 2021. We utilized five sets of Landsat data (Landsat 5 TM for 1985, 1995, 2002, and Landsat 8 OLI for 2015 & 2020) and applied supervised maximum likelihood classification. Accuracy assessments revealed overall accuracies ranging from 88.9% to 95.3% for Amibara and 89.5%–93.2% for Awash-Fentale. Both districts exhibited six main LULC classes: agriculture, bareland, built-up, mixed forest, shrubland, and water bodies. In Amibara LULC changes from 1985 to 2021 revealed significant shifts, maintaining its primary bareland characteristic, concentrated agriculture, and expanding Prosopis-dominated shrubland due to livestock-mediated seed dispersal. Conversely, in Awash-Fentale bareland dominance decreased from 92.28% to 67.02%, while agriculture, built-up areas, and shrubland expanded. Water bodies emerged between 2015 and 2021 which is associated with the construction of Kesem Kebena dam for sugar cane farm production. The net gains were observed in shrubland (12.9%), agriculture (5.8%), mixed forest (4.1%), water bodies (1.5%), and built-up areas (0.9%), with bareland experiencing a loss of 25.3%. In conclusion, Amibara and Awash-Fentale underwent both comparable and distinct LULC shifts, featuring prevalent bareland and central agriculture, alongside Prosopis-driven shrubland expansion due to livestock dispersal. While mixed forest exhibited fluctuations, built-up areas and water bodies remained limited. Notably, Awash-Fentale showed higher LULC variability. Understanding these land cover changes helps assess vulnerability to climate impacts like droughts and floods, enhancing climate resilience. Insights from this study can inform sustainable land-use planning, conservation strategies, and policy interventions in the Afar region and similar areas. These observations highlight the need for integrated land management approaches that balance socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability.

Deep learning-based modeling of land use/land cover changes impact on land surface temperature in Greater Amman Municipality, Jordan (1980–2030)

Modeling the impacts of Land Use/Land Cover changes (LULCC) on Land Surface Temperature (LST) is crucial in understanding and managing urban heat islands, climate change, energy consumption, human health, and ecosystem dynamics. This study aimed to model past, present, and future LULCC on Land Surface Temperatures in the Greater Amman Municipality (GAM) in Jordan between 1980 and 2030. A set of maps for land cover, LST, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and topography was integrated into the Cellular Automata-Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) and the Long-Short-Term Model (LSTM) models to predict the LULC and LST for 2030. The results showed an expansion of urban areas in GAM from 54.13 km2 (6.6%) in 1980 to 374.1 km2 (45.3%) in 2023. However, agricultural areas decreased from 152.13 km2 (18.5%) in 1980 to 140.38 km2 (17%) in 2023, while barren lands decreased from 54.44 km2 (6.6%) in 1980 to 34.71 km2 (4.22%) in 2023. Forested areas declined from 4.58 km2 (0.56%) in 1980 to 4.35 km2 (0.53%) in 2023. Rangelands/ sparsely vegetated areas declined from 557 km2 (67.7%) in 1980 to 270.71 km2 (32.9%) in 2023. The results of modeling LST showed an increase in average LST for all land cover types, with the most significant increases evident within urban areas and Rangelands/Sparsely vegetated areas. The slightest increase in LST was within forested areas as the average LST increased from 28.42 °C in 1980 to 34.16 °C in 2023. The forecasts for the future showed a continuous increase in LST values in all land cover types. These findings highlight the impact of land surface dynamics and their impact on increasing land surface temperature, which urges the adoption of more sustainable planning policies for more livable and thermally comfortable cities.

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of land use landcover (LULC) change in Wular Lake, Jammu and Kashmir, India.

Landsat land use/land cover (LULC) data analysis to establish freshwater lakes' temporal and spatial distribution can provide a solid foundation for future ecological and environmental policy development to manage ecosystems better. Analysis of changes in LULC is a method that can be used to learn more about direct and indirect human interactions with the environment for sustainability. Neural network technology significantly facilitates mapping between asymmetric and high-dimensional data. This paper presents a methodological advancement that integrates the CA-ANN (cellular automata-artificial neural network) technique with the dynamic characteristics of the water body to forecast forthcoming water levels and their spatial distribution in "Wular Lake." We used remote sensing data from 2001 to 2021 with a 10-year interval to predict spatio-temporal change and LULC simulation. The validation of the calibration of predicted and accurate LULC maps for 2021 yielded a maximum kappa value of 0.86. Over the past three decades, the study region has seen an increase in a net change % in the impervious surface of 22.41% and in agricultural land by 52.02%, while water decreased by 14.12%, trees/forests decreased by 40.77%, shrubs decreased by 11.53%, and aquatic vegetation decreased by 4.14%. Multiple environmental challenges have arisen in the environmentally sustainable Wular Lake in the Kashmir Valley due to the vast land transformation, primarily due to human activities, and have been predominantly negative. The research acknowledges the importance of (LULC) analysis, recognizing it as a fundamental cornerstone for developing future ecological and environmental policy frameworks.

Long-Term Landscape Changes in the Ojców National Park (Poland) and Its Surroundings: Implications for the Effectiveness of Buffer Zones

Protected areas (PAs) serve as crucial elements in biodiversity conservation but are in danger of becoming isolated islands in human-dominated landscapes. It is related to landscape changes, especially changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Over the past decades, most research on the effectiveness of nature conservation has focused mainly on PAs, while the areas surrounding PAs are of key importance for maintaining ecological connectivity and biodiversity. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine the long-term changes in LULC within the selected national park in Poland and its surroundings and to assess the effectiveness of the BZ based on these changes. We hypothesized that, despite restrictions within the buffer zone, land development has intensified and increased, in the nearest surroundings of the analyzed national park. For the analysis, we selected Ojców National Park (southern Poland), one of the oldest national parks in Poland. We analyzed landscape changes before (since the 1930s) and after establishing the park and its BZ. We conducted a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the landscape structure and LULC. We used historical maps and the contemporary national LULC database. Our results showed that almost 40% of the study area consisted of lands with non-persistent LULC. The main changes include a three-fold increase in built-up areas and an increase in forest cover, mainly on abandoned agricultural land. We also found that land development around the national park is at a level similar to the general rate for the area outside the BZ. It suggests the ineffectiveness of the buffer zone in preventing land development. The identified long-term landscape changes the basis for sustainable development land management from the nature conservation perspective.

LULC changes in the region of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project using GIS and remote sensing technique

LULC changes in the region of the proposed Pwalugu hydropower project using GIS and remote sensing technique

Impacts of Forest Management‐Induced Productivity Changes on Future Land Use and Land Cover Change

AbstractAnthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC) is projected to continue in the future. However, the influence of forest management on forest productivity change and subsequent LULCC projections remains under‐investigated. This study explored the impacts of forest management‐induced change in forest productivity on LULCC throughout the 21st century. Specifically, we developed a framework to softly couple the Global Change Analysis Model and Global Timber Model to consider forest management‐induced forest productivity change and projected future LULCC across the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We found future increases in forest management intensity overall drive the increase of forest productivity. The forest management‐induced forest productivity change shows diverse responses across all SSPs, with a global increase from 2015 to 2100 ranging from 3.9% (SSP3) to 8.8% (SSP1). This further leads to an overall decrease in the total area with a change of land use types, with the largest decrease under SSP1 (−7.5%) and the smallest decrease under SSP3 (−0.7%) in 2100. Among land use types, considering forest management‐induced change significantly reduces the expansion of managed forest and also reduces the loss of natural land in 2100 across SSPs. This suggests that ignoring forest management‐induced forest productivity change underestimates the efficiency of wood production, overestimates the managed forest expansion required to meet the future demand, and consequently, potentially introduces uncertainties into relevant analyses, for example, carbon cycle and biodiversity. Thus, we advocate to better account for the impacts of forest management in future LULCC projections.

Uncovering the impacts of LUCC on ecological connectivity in suburban open-pit mining concentration areas: A pattern collection of changing relationships between ecological resistance and ecological network elements

The suburban open-pit mining concentration area couples two human activities, urban sprawl and open-pit mining, while destruction of surface vegetation and ecological restoration coexist. This has also resulted in complex land use shifts that significantly affect regional ecological connectivity. However, the impact of such complex Land use/land cover changes (LUCC) on ecological connectivity in this region is not well understood Therefore, this study takes the suburban open-pit mining concentration area of Jinan City as a case study and uses Land use/land cover (LULC) data from the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 to simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological networks (ENs). Subsequently, a pattern collection of changing relationships was proposed that relate changes in ecological resistance to changes in EN elements, addressing the dynamic transmission process from "spatial field" to "spatial structure entity". Based on this approach, GeoDetector is employed to reveal the response extent of EN elements to LUCC. The results indicate: (1) In the past 20 years, the area of construction land has increased by 100 %, while mining land has increased by 69 %. This significant increase in LUCC has led to a notable enhancement in ecological resistance in the study area, driving the generation of 20 % more ecological pinch points and barriers. Additionally, it has resulted in a twofold increase in both the number and length of level 1 ecological corridors. (2) The dominant status and structure of grassland, agriculture land, and woodland remain relatively stable; however, the interflow among them has caused approximately 25 % of the ecological corridors to undergo changes such as disappearance and path alteration. (3) The implementation of ecological protection and restoration has led to a continuous increase in the area of ecological sources, particularly with the mining rehabilitation increasing by 32.7 times compared to 2000, thereby driving gradual improvement in 25 % of the ecological network elements. (4) Although the quantity and length of ecological corridors in the study area remain relatively stable, evaluation results indicate that its spatial structure is gradually deteriorating, with ecological connectivity decreasing by 7.7 %. This study highlights the importance of restoration of ecological processes in sub-urban open-pit mining concentration areas. The study results can provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration and sustainable development in resource-based cities.

Impact of land use and land cover change on land surface temperature: Comparative studies in four cities in southwestern Ethiopia

The urban climate has undergone significant changes due to rapid population growth, leading to a decline in vegetation cover and an increase in land surface temperature (LST). This study aims to assess the influence of land use land cover (LULC) changes on LST in four major urban areas in southwestern Ethiopia, namely Jimma, Bonga, Mattu and Nekemte, during the period from 2002 to 2024. To investigate the impact of LULC dynamics on LST, 30 m spatial resolution images from Landsat were utilized, including Thematic Mapper (TM) for the year 2002 and Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared (TIRS) for the years 2014 and 2024. Over the past 22 years, the mean LST has increased by 2.81 °C, 2.94 °C, 3.37 °C, and 3.96 °C for Bonga, Nekemte, Mattu, and Jimma, respectively. The increase in LST can be attributed to various factors, but one of the primary reasons is linked to the rapid urbanization and decrease in forest cover. Changes in LULC triggered by rapid urbanization significantly influences LST in major cities. The results highlight the increment of impervious surface and the decline in vegetation cover as key factors contributing to the upward trend in LST. The results indicate that urban centers with less vegetation cover experienced higher LST compared to their surroundings. The results of this study indicate the necessity of effective urban planning to increase vegetation cover through urban greenery and parks to mitigate the increasing trends of LST, which can improve urban thermal comfort levels.

Annual time-series 1 km maps of crop area and types in the conterminous US (CropAT-US): cropping diversity changes during 1850–2021

Abstract. Agricultural activities have been recognized as an important driver of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and have significantly impacted the ecosystem feedback to climate by altering land surface properties. A reliable historical cropland distribution dataset is crucial for understanding and quantifying the legacy effects of agriculture-related LCLUC. While several LCLUC datasets have the potential to depict cropland patterns in the conterminous US, there remains a dearth of a relatively high-resolution datasets with crop type details over a long period. To address this gap, we reconstructed historical cropland density and crop type maps from 1850 to 2021 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km by integrating county-level crop-specific inventory datasets, census data, and gridded LCLUC products. Different from other databases, we tracked the planting area dynamics of all crops in the US, excluding idle and fallow farm land and cropland pasture. The results showed that the crop acreages for nine major crops derived from our map products are highly consistent with the county-level inventory data, with a residual less than 0.2×103 ha (0.2 kha) in most counties (>75 %) during the entire study period. Temporally, the US total crop acreage has increased by 118×106 ha (118 Mha) from 1850 to 2021, primarily driven by corn (30 Mha) and soybean (35 Mha). Spatially, the hot spots of cropland distribution shifted from the Eastern US to the Midwest and the Great Plains, and the dominant crop types (corn and soybean) expanded northwestward. Moreover, we found that the US cropping diversity experienced a significant increase from the 1850s to the 1960s, followed by a dramatic decline in the recent 6 decades under intensified agriculture. Generally, this newly developed dataset could facilitate spatial data development, with respect to delineating crop-specific management practices, and enable the quantification of cropland change impacts on the environment. Annual cropland density and crop type maps are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22822838.v2 (Ye et al., 2023).

Evaluation of groundwater quality for drinking and irrigation purposes, ionic sources and land use/land cover impacts in the Kathua region of Jammu and Kashmir, India

Kathua is one of the fast-growing industrial districts of the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, northern India. The primary source of water in Kathua is groundwater, which is widely used for industrial, agricultural, drinking, and building purposes. The groundwater system is changing significantly both in terms of quantity and quality in the study area due to recent industrial and infrastructural developments. Thus, 40 groundwater samples were collected from different wells in the pre-monsoon season, May 2022, and analyzed for physicochemical variables to determine the impact of geogenic and anthropogenic activities on the groundwater. The drinking groundwater quality appears to be excellent to good. Of the variables that were examined, two—TH and HCO3—had concentrations higher than the recommended limits of the BIS and WHO guidelines. Groundwater contains alkaline earth metals and weak acids, and its hydrochemistry is controlled by rock‒water interactions (silicate weathering or cation exchange and reverse-ion exchange processes). Several parameters (electrical conductivity, sodium percentage, sodium adsorption ratio, permeability index, magnesium adsorption ratio, residual sodium carbonate, and the Kelly’s ratio) were used to evaluate groundwater suitability for irrigation. The permeability index, magnesium adsorption ratio, and residual sodium carbonate indicate that the groundwater of a few samples is unsuitable for irrigation purposes. Land use/land cover (LULC) change analysis was used to determine the potential impacts of LULC changes on groundwater. Anthropogenic interventions are a major cause of LULC changes that are considerably reducing groundwater recharge zones, increasing surface runoff, and artificially polluting groundwater through domestic and industrial wastes, according to the LULC analysis conducted using satellite data for the year 2017 and 2022. Therefore, to minimize the effects of LULC on groundwater, prompt action must be taken, requiring regular monitoring of groundwater quality and LULC changes. The results of the study may be useful to the general public, farmers, and policy makers in the sustainable development and management of groundwater.

Forest Encroachment and Agriculture Land Abandonment in the Context of Land Cover Change in Kailali

Land use land cover (LULC) area has been changing for many decades in the Kailali district but has little been researched. The study aims to examine the spatial and temporal changes of LULC from 1978 to 2021, carrying out major driving factors of forest cover change regarding forest encroachment and abandonment. The researcher employed a mixed-method approach to accomplish this study. Field observation, household survey with 45 participants, Key Informant Interviews (KII) with three participants, and five Focus Group Discussions (FGD) were used as research tools to collect the data. Moreover, the researcher used books, journal articles, official reports, and related previous empirical studies as secondary data [Land Resource Mapping Project (LRMP) data were used to screen LULC status of 1978 and 1990, and digitization on Google Earth Pro to prepare LULC data for 2000 and 2021]. The findings of the study revealed that the forest cover area of the Kailali district was in a decreasing trend [ for instance in 1978 the area of forest cover was 75.38%, in 1990 it was 66.51% in 2000, and was 65% in 2021]. In contrast to forest cover, the agricultural [settlements and infrastructures] land area was on an increasing trend which was followed by 21.77%, 30.28%, 31.75%, and 32.25% in each period. The study also found that the changing rate of forest cover and the agricultural land have been decreasing. Further, the research found the major drivers of forest cover change were encroachment and agricultural land abandonment. In addition, population growth, migration, poverty, development activities, natural hazards, resettlement, public utilities, weak implications of policy, and illegal activities were also the major causes of forest cover change. The research implies that both forest encroachment and land abandonment should be controlled, and are to be considered by the stakeholders.

Effects of disturbances on the spatiotemporal patterns and dynamics of coastal wetland vegetation

The coastal wetlands represented by mangroves are vulnerable to disturbances. To clarify the effects of disturbances quantitatively on mangroves, spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) were compared between the inside and outside of mangroves during 1988 and 2020 in Bangladesh by remote sensing. The mangrove region, which had diverse surface greenness due to natural and anthropogenic disturbances, were surveyed. Changes in greenness were estimated by five vegetation indices (VIs). To increase in the accuracy of land use classification, the five VIs were combined under a random forest (RF) classifier. The five VIs were: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green NDVI (GNDVI), soil-adjusted VI (SAVI), green–red VI (GRVI) and enhanced VI (EVI), using data obtained from Landsat TM (30 m resolution) and Sentinel-2A (10 m) via Google Earth Engine. A Moran’s I analysis showed a random pattern of training samples of LULC classes for integrated RF classification. The classification accuracy was evaluated using the reference point data with multiple comparisons of VIs and κ coefficient. The area was classified into eight LULC classes. Although the respective VIs depicted unique characteristics, the accuracies of them were less than 89 %. The integrated classifier improved the accuracy of 96–97 % with κ of 0.96 in 1988 and 0.97 in 2020. The VI-integrated RF was the most effective classifier for LULC, particularly for separating mangroves from homestead vegetation. The changes for 32 years showed that the dense mangrove occupied 42 % of surveyed area in 1988 but declined ca 622 km2 in 2020, whereas sparse mangrove and aquaculture increased by 487 km2 and 464 km2, respectively, out of the total area of 8,360 km2. The changes in LULC classes were mostly from dense mangroves to sparse mangroves, sparse mangroves to dense mangroves and from cropland to bare land and aquaculture. Inaccessible mangrove degradation should result from natural disturbances, i.e., tropical cyclones, while areas near forest boundaries were distorted by anthropogenic disturbances such as aquaculture development. The restoration of habitat quality, mangrove afforestation and sustainable aquaculture practices were effective indicators for improving the mangrove ecosystems. Since natural and anthropogenic disturbances induce substantial loss of mangrove vegetation, the VI-integrated RF classifier should be applied for monitoring LULC and for developing the sustainable management strategies.

Urban Climate Change in Populated Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: A Case Study

Kathmandu Valley, the capital and commercial hub of Nepal, is experiencing rapid and unmanaged urbanization, leading to poor environmental conditions. The population, a key indicator of urbanization, has been growing at an average rate of 2.08% per year. This population growth from 1990 to 2021 has significantly altered land use, resulting in increased temperatures and transforming the valley into an Urban Heat Island (UHI). This study examines the effects of UHI by comparing normalized Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Kathmandu Valley and assessing the influence of land use changes on UHI intensity between 1990 and 2021. The result shows that built-up area has expanded by 30.7% of the total area, while the agricultural area has decreased by 33.59%. These changes in land use and land cover have caused a significant temperature increase at a rate of 0.038 °C per year. Green space density, measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), has declined from 35.59% to 29.17%, being replaced by built-up areas. LST is inversely related to the presence of surface vegetation. The UHI phenomenon is observed to be stronger in urban centers such as Tribhuvan International Airport, Patan industrial area, Kritipur, and Kalanki, while it is weaker in semi-urban regions like Suryabinayak and Godawari. As climate change poses significant health and environmental challenges, adaptation has become a major issue for developing countries. Therefore, it is essential to implement change control and mitigation strategies specifically tailored to each urban region.

Landslide dynamic susceptibility mapping in urban expansion area considering spatiotemporal land use and land cover change

Landslides pose a noteworthy threat in urban settlements globally, especially in areas experiencing extreme climate and rapid engineering. However, researches focusing on the long-term uninterrupted land use and land cover change (LULCC) impacted on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) in rapid urban expansion areas remains limited, let alone different temporal scenarios adjacency thresholds. This work aims to refine the temporal LSM considering spatiotemporal land use and land cover (LULC) and to provide decision makers with governing factors in landslides control during urbanization in mountainous areas. Herein, annual LULC data and landslide inventory spanning from 1992 to 2022 were utilized to map dynamic landslide susceptibility in Wanzhou District of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, China. Initially, the landslide-related factors were filtered as input features of random forest (RF) model before diagnosis via multicollinearity test and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The advanced patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was then invited to fuel temporal susceptibility prediction powered by LULCC projections. Finally, the performance of various scenarios was evaluated using Receiver Characteristic Curve (ROC) curves and Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique, with discussions on LULCC temporal adjacency thresholds and mutual feedback mechanism between territorial exploitation and landslide occurrences. The results indicate that the precision of LSM is positively correlated with the time horizon, acted by incorporating the latest LULC and LULCC achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.920. The transition of land from forest to cropland and impervious areas should be avoided to minimize the increase in landslide susceptibility. Moreover, a one-year adjacency threshold of LULCC is recommended for optimal model accuracy in future LSM. This dynamic LSM framework can serve as a reference for decision makers in future landslide susceptibility mitigation and land resources utilization in rapid urban expansion areas worldwide.

Sustainable Urban Planning Challenges in the Peri-Urban Landscape: Evaluating LULC Dynamics and the Policy Effectiveness of the Chattogram Metropolitan Region, Bangladesh

Understanding the dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) change in today’s context of rapid urbanization is critical for sustainable urban planning and environmental conservation. Therefore, the research aim is to understand the LULC changes in the Chattogram Metropolitan Area and to assess the policy implications of these changes for sustainable urban development. Through a comparative analysis of LULC maps for two periods (1997–2007; 2007–2017), we investigated the transformation of a detailed planning zone before and after Detailed Area Plan (DAP) approval. Using quantitative data analysis and policy review, we elucidated the impacts of urbanization trends on local ecosystems—specifically the conversion of forest cover and waterscape use. The findings reveal a significant conversion of forested and waterscape areas to urban and peri-urban landscapes, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable planning interventions that focus on these peri-urban areas. The study further critiques the DAP’s effectiveness, revealing a disconnect between regional policy implementation and local outcomes. This research proposes a validated, scalable framework for urban master plans that adapts to the complex socioecological contexts of rapidly urbanizing regions.