Land Uplift Research Articles

A System Dynamics Simulating Model of Groundwater Level Changes and Its Impacts on Land Uplift

The global effort to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources results in the closure of surface and underground coal mines, subsequently affecting the environment, society, and the economy. Land uplift is one of the challenges since the coal mine closure in Germany. Using computational modeling and simulation helps understand the long-term land uplift behavior related to variables’ complexity and dynamic interactions of groundwater level changes. This study proposes a system dynamics (SD) model to study the complexity of variables and consider the upstream groundwater impacts on land uplift in abandoned mines in the Ruhr district in Germany. The proposed model utilized causal loop diagrams (CLD) and stock flow diagrams (SFD) to provide a conceptual and simulation framework. The individual and combined effects of increasing rainfall, groundwater level, effective stress, porosity, porewater pressure, total stress, etc., on land uplift are studied. The model was evaluated by analyzing different scenarios based on stochastic and random variables in the Eastern Ruhr region of Germany. The scenario result showed that with a 10% increase in groundwater level, the land uplift increased by about + 6%, and a rise of 200% in total stress caused an 18% increase in effective stress, which decreased the land uplift by about 20%. Additionally, decreasing porosity leads to reduced land uplift. The land uplift trend was very high in the first 15 years after mine closure. Some scenarios are considered to delay and decrease the land uplift in the long-term.

Field survey of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan: Characteristics of damage patterns to coastal communities

On January 1st, 2024, a major earthquake near the Noto Peninsula, Japan, triggered tsunami waves that impacted coastal communities in the region. This study reports findings from two field surveys conducted four days and two months after the event to understand the tsunami's mechanisms and effects, respectively. The proximity of the epicenter to land and the complex topography of the Noto Peninsula caused spatial variability in the observed damage. The observed tsunami inundation and run-up heights along the peninsula ranged from 1.02 to 4.10 m, with the maximum of 6.64 m measured at Naoetsu, located approximately 100 km away from the peninsula. However, areas experiencing earthquake-induced land uplift of up to 4 m observed no coastal inundation. Coastal protection structures were crucial in mitigating damage; areas behind breakwaters suffered minimal impact, while unprotected locations and weak points in hydraulic structures allowed increased damage. The relatively infrequent occurrence of large tsunamis on the Japan Sea side, compared to the Pacific side, may have led to lower preparedness levels. However, despite the limited time for evacuation of less than 10 min, one community experienced no casualties, highlighting the effectiveness of prompt evacuation and increased social awareness following the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami.

Scientific, Educational and Geotourism Value of the Ballota Beach that Recorded the Old and Most Recent Geological Histories of the North-Northwest Part of the Iberian Peninsula

One of the enclaves that exhibits the best features to understand the old and most recent geological history of the north-northwest portion of the Iberian Peninsula is the Ballota Beach, located in Asturias, Spain. In the cliff above sea level that borders this beach to the south, a succession of Carboniferous “griotte” limestones crops out, deformed by spectacular ramp and detachment folds, as well as thrusts, backthrusts and duplexes. These structures are testimonies of the shortening produced in the cordillera originated during the Variscan orogeny of Devonian-Permian age, which extended throughout central Europe, northern Africa and eastern North America. Additionally, from a viewpoint located on the cliff, one can recognize a flat surface over the carbonate coastal cliffs and higher flat surfaces developed on quartzites. These flat surfaces, known as “rasas”, are marine abrasion surfaces elevated above current sea level resulting from Cenozoic-Quaternary land uplift and/or sea level fall. This region, already mentioned in the XIX century, has an extraordinary scientific and educational value, from the Structural Geology, Geomorphology, Historical Geology and Stratigraphy points of view, and is a great geotourism attraction due to its beauty. To make this region known, we propose to declare this area a geological interest site in the Global Geosites Spain project, make this article open access, upload a virtual outcrop model we have built in open-access online repositories, make information available to public entities that promote outreach and tourism, propose the realization of a “Geolodía” (Geology day), and make a video to celebrate the Geodiversity International Day.

Coastal vertical land motion across Southeast Asia derived from combining tide gauge and satellite altimetry observations

Vertical land motion (VLM) is complex in Southeast Asia because this region is subject to a range of natural processes (e.g., earthquakes) and anthropogenic activities (e.g., groundwater withdrawal) that can change land heights. To aid in coastal management, long-term observations of VLM are as crucial as observations for climate-induced sea surface height changes; however, such long-term observations are sparse for Southeast Asian coasts. To fill this observational gap, here we derive monthly VLM time series from 1993 to 2020 at 50 coastal sites across Southeast Asia by combining tide-gauge records and newly generated satellite altimetry observations. These altimetry observations are reproduced sea-level products using new altimetry standards and more accurate geophysical corrections. Our 27-year-long VLM dataset shows high spatial variability and non-linear temporal changes in VLM across Southeast Asia. We identify several major sources that dominate the regional land-height changes, which include large subsidence due to groundwater extraction in Manila and Bangkok, land uplift in Indonesia and subsidence in Thailand from postseismic deformation resulting from the sequence of large Sumatran earthquakes since 2004, and land subsidence as a result of sediment compaction in Malaysia. Those signals are quantitatively or qualitatively consistent with observations from other sources. This VLM dataset can be used to advance our understanding of the physical mechanisms behind land-height changes and to improve sea level projections in the region.

Subsidence and Uplift in Active and Closed Lignite Mines: Impacts of Energy Transition and Climate Change

This study examines the combined effects of decommissioning lignite mining operations and long-term climate trends on groundwater systems and land surface movements in the Konin region of Poland, which is characterised by extensive open-pit lignite extraction. The findings reveal subsidence rates ranging from −26 to 14 mm per year within mining zones, while land uplift of a few millimetres per year occurred in closed mining areas between 2015 and 2022. Groundwater levels in shallow Quaternary and deeper Paleogene–Neogene aquifers have declined significantly, with drops of up to 26 m observed near active mining, particularly between 2009 and 2019. A smaller groundwater decline of around a few metres was observed outside areas influenced by mining. Meteorological data show an average annual temperature of 8.9 °C from 1991 to 2023, with a clear warming trend of 0.0050 °C per year since 2009. Although precipitation patterns show a slight increase from 512 mm to 520 mm, a shift towards drier conditions has emerged since 2009, characterised by more frequent dry spells. These climatic trends, combined with mining activities, highlight the need for adaptive groundwater management strategies. Future research should focus on enhanced monitoring of groundwater recovery and sustainable practices in post-mining landscapes.

Land surface response to groundwater drawdown and recovery in Taiyuan city, Northern China, analyzed with a long-term elevation change measurements from leveling and multi-sensor InSAR

In recent years, a comprehensive program of groundwater management was adopted in Taiyuan city, Northern China, with the aim to prevent the lowering of groundwater level and manage land subsidence due to excessive groundwater pumping in the past decades. Groundwater recovery has been observed in this city following the termination of groundwater pumping. While the link between land subsidence and groundwater pumping is well documented, how the land surface responds to the recovery of groundwater has not been studied in detail. In this study, we analyzed the leveling data from 1956 to 2000 to investigate changes in ground elevation in response to groundwater drawdown prior to the termination of groundwater pumping and combined them with InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) displacement data during 2003–2020 to evaluate the effect of groundwater recharge after the termination of groundwater pumping. A method was proposed to merge InSAR time series of displacement derived from multiple satellites (ENVISAT, COSMO-SkyMed, TerraSAR-X, and Sentinel-1) to achieve a consistent, long-term continuous deformation. We found that previous groundwater depression cones in Taiyuan (Xizhang, Wanbailin, Wujiabao, and Xiayuan) have turned into groundwater recovery and the corresponding subsidence centers have switched to land uplift. The subsidence center of Xizhang, north of Taiyuan city, experienced a total subsidence of 749 mm by Aug 2003; it then turned into uplift with an amount of rebound of 9.2 % of previous subsidence by the end of 2020. In central area of Taiyuan, the cumulated subsidence is 1127 mm in Wanbailin, 1817 mm in Xiayuan, and 3343 mm in Wujiabao. Beginning in Aug 2010, they all turned into land uplift, with a rebound of 7.9 %, 4.8 % and 3.6 % of the previous subsidence in each center, respectively. An analysis of the correlation between groundwater level and ground displacement suggests that the ground uplift is related to the poro-elastic rebound mechanism in the porous aquifer system, which is caused by the rise in pore pressure with groundwater recovery, and the amount of subsidence/uplift is controlled by the stratigraphic properties. The adverse impacts on the built environment due to the rising groundwater level were discussed. The findings improve our understanding of anthropogenic ground deformation in complex urban aquifers influenced by groundwater pumping and recharge and provides essential information that can contribute to future groundwater management and groundwater-related hazard mitigation over the Taiyuan city.

Land deformation due to earthquake in Cianjur, West Java, Indonesia: A multisensor-multitemporal study

Background The Java Island is located in a seismically active region, which makes it vulnerable to earthquakes. On 21 November 2022, an earthquake of magnitude 5.6 struck Java, with its epicentre located in Cianjur, West Java. The earthquake caused significant damage to the buildings and infrastructure in the region, and several injuries and fatalities. Methods In this study, we used multisensor and multitemporal data to investigate the land deformation. Multi-pairs of Sentinel-1 SAR and aerial orthomosaic photos are used. Sentinel-1 SAR data were acquired from the Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem and the SNAP software was used to do inSAR analysis, while aerial orthomosaic data were acquired using DJI Drone Mavic Pro. Results Our results show that the earthquake caused significant land deformation in the area, with surface displacements of up to 9.8 cm and 11 cm for land uplift and land subsidence, respectively. We also found that deformation was primarily concentrated in the south-eastern and north-western parts of the study area. We identified the possibility of an unmapped fault that could trigger earthquakes in the future. Conclusions Our findings highlight the usefulness of radar and remotely sensed optical data in studying the effects of earthquakes. This data can be used to effectively design future disaster response and recovery efforts.

Restoring charophytes is still a challenge: A call for developing successful methods

Submerged aquatic vegetation, and especially charophytes, which are an important habitat for many species, have declined in the Baltic Sea due to changes in light climate, eutrophication and physical disturbance. Physical disturbance in the form of small-scale dredging activities is commonplace in Sweden due to land uplift, but causes fragmentation of coastal habitats. Here we test three planting methods for restoration of the charophyte Chara aspera on an area of deposited sediment, and a single method for restoration of C. tomentosa in a dredged area. We found that none of the planting methods tested was more successful than natural recolonization of C. aspera on the deposited sediment. C. tomentosa planting was unsuccessful in the dredged area and was likely outcompeted for light by taller species. The C. aspera meadow was resilient to smaller disturbances, as experimental removal of up to 2.5% of C. aspera and sediment from the donor area did not reduce C. aspera coverage a month after removal. Even after an uncontrolled event that removed up to 50% of C. aspera in the experimental plots, C. aspera coverage had returned to pre-removal levels a year after the disturbance. We suggest future restoration experiments test transplanting sediment rich in oocytes and bulbils into areas with suitable light climates and low competition with other species. Restoration efforts are costly and highly uncertain of success, therefore we recommend discontinuing dredging activities in charophyte meadows to protect this important habitat.

A multi-source proxies approach to identifying local processes in lower Permian black shale impacting on the sedimentary environment of eastern Palaeo-Tethys Ocean

Foreland basin tectonics along the eastern Palaeo-Tethys Ocean produced a complex and dynamic pattern of sediment delivery to adjacent basins. Environmental processes at the local scale significantly disrupt regional ones, making the analysis of sedimentary evolution difficult. This study investigated the Lower Permian Liangshan Formation black shale formed in such geological setting, rich in cherts with exceptionally high silica and fluctuating major and trace element concentrations, detected using XRD, XRF, and ICP-MS techniques. Different types of silica, including detrital quartz, recrystallised radiolaria, microcrystalline quartz, and quartz veins, were identified using SEM and SEM-CL imaging. Geochemical characterisation and enrichment pattern analyses indicated that the structural setting was characterised by proximity to the oceanic island arc, continental island arc, and passive margin, and the major zone of sediment accumulation was a semi-restricted back-arc basin under the subduction zone. The processes controlling sediment accumulation included hydrothermal activity, upwelling, biogenic silica, and terrestrial inputs. Although upwelling interfered with the mobility and migration of hydrothermal elements, it introduced abundant nutrients, and together with hydrothermal fluids, it contributed to the subsequent boom in siliceous organisms. Terrigenous inputs induced by land uplift significantly diluted the components from other sources. This multi-source proxies approach not only enables researchers to disentangle local from regional processes but also sheds light on how these diverse environmental forces interact within intricate earth systems, which enhance our comprehension of geologic history and inform ongoing studies focused on climate change mitigation strategies.

Ground deformation monitoring via PS-InSAR time series: An industrial zone in Sacco River Valley, central Italy

Persistent Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR) is an advanced technique enabling effective ground deformation monitoring. In this study, PS-InSAR time series of Sentinel-1 ascending and descending orbits for period 2015–2022 are utilized for an industrial zone in Sacco River Valley, Central Italy. The Sequential Turning Point Detection (STPD) is applied to estimate the trend turning points and their directions in PS-InSAR time series. In addition, river flow and climate time series for Sacco River near the industrial zone are analyzed using the coefficient of determination and the Least-Squares Cross-Wavelet Analysis (LSCWA) to investigate their potential impact on ground deformation. A significant land subsidence was observed prior to Fall 2016 likely as the result of drought and excessive water extraction followed by land uplift after Fall 2017 likely due to groundwater rebound. The LSCWA showed statistically significant seasonal coherency between precipitation and streamflow in 2018 when relatively much higher precipitation and streamflow were observed in this year compared to 2016 and 2017, potentially contributing to the land uplift in the study zone during 2018. These results not only highlight the capabilities of STPD for detecting trend turning points and LSCWA for analyzing streamflow and precipitation time series but also can help policymakers and stakeholders for developing a sustainable city and environment.

Reconstructing the Underwater Topography in the Medieval Harbour of Oslo

Abstract Many known factors are continuously affecting and changing the landscape. This can lead to challenges in interpreting archaeological remains found underwater, or in areas that used to be underwater, when their depth below the water surface at the time of deposition is unknown. This article is an attempt to investigate if it is possible to reconstruct how the underwater (submarine) landscape might have looked in Oslo in the Late Middle Ages based on data gathered in an archaeological excavation at site B8a. Calculating the known parameters that affect the underwater topography in Oslo – land uplift, sea level change, subsidence of the ground, and technical adjustment of mean sea level – resulted in a model. This model of the seabed around AD 1400 is based on up-to-date information and shows that it is possible to create a relevant framework for archaeological interpretation. Yet, there are challenges like the degree of inaccuracy of the data used, where our calculations end up with an uncertainty range of around ± 0.64 m.

Deglaciation of the highest mountains in Scandinavia at the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition: evidence from surface exposure‐age dating of ice‐marginal moraines

Surface exposure–age dating was applied to rock surfaces associated with ice‐marginal moraines at elevations of ~1520–1780 m a.s.l. on the slopes of Galdhøpiggen and Glittertinden, the two highest mountains in Scandinavia located in the Jotunheimen mountains of central southern Norway. This is important for understanding the pattern and timing of wastage of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet at the Younger Dryas–Holocene transition. Cosmogenic exposure dating (here 10Be dating) of boulders from the moraine ridges yielded overall mean ages (corrected for glacio‐isostatic uplift, surface erosion and snow shielding) of ~11.6 ka from Galdhøpiggen and ~11.2 ka from Glittertinden. Similar 10Be ages were also obtained from additionally collected proximal and distal erratic boulders and bedrock samples. These enabled age calibration of Schmidt‐hammer R‐values and independent Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) of the moraine ridges, which yielded comparable mean SHD ages of ~10.8 and ~10.6 ka from the Galdhøpiggen and Glittertinden sites, respectively. Taking account of the age resolution and other limitations of both dating techniques, the results suggest that the two sets of moraines have approximately the same age but that neither technique can distinguish unambiguously between moraine formation in the late Younger Dryas or Early Holocene. Together with features of moraine‐ridge morphology and estimates of equilibrium‐line altitude depression of ~360–575 m (corrected for land uplift), the results imply moraine formation during short‐lived re‐advances of active glaciers, at least the lower reaches of which were warm‐based. It is concluded that the local glaciers remained active and advanced during deglaciation either very late in the Younger Dryas or very early in the Holocene, possibly in response to the Preboreal Oscillation at ~11.4 ka. The study supports the concept of a thin Younger Dryas ice sheet and places time constraints on the timing of final deglaciation in southern Norway.

Hälsingska ortnamn på -åck, -uck med sörmländska motsvarigheter

This article aims to demonstrate how the final element of some place-names with a modern or reconstructed older pronunciation [-ɔk], [-ok], [-ʊk] can be traced back phonetically to the appellative vik ʻbay, inlet, coveʼ. In the province of Södermanland there are six place-names in which [-ɔk] appears in both modern pronunciation and in older spellings, rendered there as -aak, -ack, etc. In a majority of cases the names later took the form -åker (åker ʻarable landʼ). In the province of Hälsingland the final element of three of the names was phonetically replaced by [-ɪk], and given an orthography accordingly. The [-ɪk] element occurs in several place-names throughout the region, all of which can be traced back to vik. The older spellings of the two remaining names – now lost – seem to indicate an [-ɔk], [-ok] pronunciation. Certain appellatives, personal names and other place-names appear to have undergone a similar phonological development and are presented here as evidence. The first elements of the majority of the Södermanland place-names were previously discussed by another onomastician, and in the current study the first elements of the Hälsingland names have been scrutinised by the author. All of the eleven Hälsingland and Södermanland names occur quite close to bays or inlets that either still exist or have dried up owing to land uplift.

A first step towards a national realisation of the international height reference system in Sweden with a comparison to RH 2000

Abstract The International Height Reference System (IHRS) was defined by the International Association of Geodesy in 2015. Since then, the international geodetic community has been working on the specification and establishment of its realisation, the International Height Reference Frame (IHRF). This frame will primarily be realised by geopotential numbers (or physical heights) in a sparse global reference network. In Sweden, only one such global station is planned. Regional and national realisations (or densifications) computed in accordance with the IHRS definition are needed to enable the best possible unification of height datums. The main purpose of this article is to make a case study for Sweden regarding the national realisation of IHRS and to investigate in what way preliminary IHRF differs from the current Swedish levelling-based realisation of the European Vertical Reference System, RH 2000. The two different quasigeoid models that we consider best over Sweden at the present time are used to compute the preliminary IHRS realisations in the study. The realisations are compared to each other and to RH 2000. It is shown that a very significant part of the difference to RH 2000 is due to the different postglacial land uplift epochs, permanent tide concepts, and zero levels. The standard deviation for the difference between one of the preliminary national IHRS realisations and RH 2000 is reduced from 75.5 to 19.2 mm after correction of the postglacial land uplift and permanent tide effects. The corresponding mean differences are –208.5 and –454.7 mm, respectively. The magnitude of the mean difference thus increases when the corrections in question are applied.

Permafrost saline water and Early to mid-Holocene permafrost aggradation in Svalbard

Abstract. Deglaciation in Svalbard was followed by seawater ingression and deposition of marine (deltaic) sediments in fjord valleys, while elastic rebound resulted in fast land uplift and the exposure of these sediments to the atmosphere, whereby the formation of epigenetic permafrost was initiated. This was then followed by the accumulation of aeolian sediments, with syngenetic permafrost formation. Permafrost was studied in the eastern Adventdalen valley, Svalbard, 3–4 km from the maximum up-valley reach of post-deglaciation seawater ingression, and its ground ice was analysed for its chemistry. While ground ice in the syngenetic part is basically fresh, the epigenetic part has a frozen freshwater–saline water interface (FSI), with chloride concentrations increasing from the top of the epigenetic part (at 5.5 m depth) to about 15 % that of seawater at 11 m depth. We applied a one-dimensional freezing model to examine the rate of top-down permafrost formation, which could be accommodated by the observed frozen FSI. The model examined permafrost development under different scenarios of mean average air temperature, water freezing temperature and degree of pore-water freezing. We found that even at the relatively high air temperatures of the Early to mid-Holocene, permafrost could aggrade quite fast down to 20 to 37 m (the whole sediment fill of 25 m at this location) within 200 years. This, in turn, allowed freezing and preservation of the freshwater–saline water interface despite the relatively fast rebound rate, which apparently resulted in an increase in topographic gradients toward the sea. The permafrost aggradation rate could also be enhanced due to non-complete pore-water freezing. We conclude that freezing must have started immediately after the exposure of the marine sediment to atmospheric conditions.

Detection of time variable gravity signals using terrestrial clock networks

The relativistic redshift between two earth-bound clocks can be interpreted in terms of gravity potential variation between the clock locations. A clock with a fractional frequency uncertainty of 10-18 is sensitive to a gravity potential variation of 0.1 m2/s2 or a height difference of 1 cm. Case studies for four regions affected by different mass change processes - Himalaya, Amazon, Greenland, and Fennoscandia - have been carried out. As the clocks rest on the deformable Earth’s surface, clock observations do not only include potential variations due to mass changes but also associated variations due to the vertical deformation of the land. For the simulations, vertical displacements were derived from real GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems) measurements, and mass variations were computed from GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) solutions. In the Himalayan region, seasonal variations with a maximum range of -0.20.2 m2/s2 were obtained. There, early and long-lasting precipitation patterns in North-East India and the gradual spreading towards the West can be observed by a dedicated clock network. For the Amazon region, seasonal variations with a maximum range of -0.50.5 m2/s2 observed by clocks also reveals the Amazon’s seasonal properties of annual rainfall variability at the North and South of the equator. The rainy season in the North of the equator is during the summer season from June to August, but from November to April in the South of the equator. The long-term trend of the ice mass loss in Greenland between 2004 and 2015 causes signals of potential variations of 1 m2/s2 that again can clearly be observed by clock measurements. Especially, the higher rates of mass variations in the west and south parts of Greenland can well be observed. The land uplift pattern of Fennoscandia due to the GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) can also be detected using optical clocks, however, the vertical deformations dominate the signal and not the mass changes. These examples illustrate that terrestrial clock networks can be used in the future as a modern tool for detecting various time-variable gravity signals for understanding the regional/local patterns of the variations and for providing complementary information to other geodetic techniques.

Sea Level Rise and Future Projections in the Baltic Sea

This article aimed to provide an overview of relative and absolute sea level rise in the Baltic Sea based on different studies, where researchers have used data from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, sea level rise, and land uplift models. These results provide an opportunity to get an overview of the sea level rise in the Baltic Sea. However, to better understand the impact of sea level rise on the coastal area of the Baltic Sea, and especially in Estonia, two post-glacial land uplift models, the latest land uplift model NKG2016LU of the Nordic Commission of Geodesy (NKG) and Estonian land uplift model EST2020VEL, were used. These models enabled to eliminate post-glacial land uplift from absolute sea level rise. To determine the relative sea level rise in the coastal area of the Baltic Sea, the rates from land uplift models were compared to ESA’s BalticSEAL absolute sea level rise model. It was found that the relative sea level rise between 1995–2019 was −5 to 4.5 mm/yr (based on NKG2016LU) in the Baltic Sea. In addition, the southern area is more affected by relative sea level rise than the northern part. During the research, it was also found that the IPCC AR5 sea level projections predict a maximum relative sea level rise in the Baltic Sea by the year 2100 of between 0.3 to 0.7 m. As coastal areas in the southern part of the Baltic Sea are predominantly flat, the sea level may reach the real estate properties by the end of the 21st century. In the coastal area of Estonia, the relative sea level rise in the period 1995–2019 was −1.1 to 3.1 mm/yr (based on NKG2016LU) and −0.3 to 3.4 mm/yr (based on EST2020VEL), the difference between the land uplift models is −0.9 to 0.1 mm/y. In Estonia, the west and southwest area are most threatened by sea level rise, where the coast is quite flat. One of the largest cities in Estonia, Pärnu, is also located there. Using the ESA’s sea level and EST2020VEL land uplift models, it was found that the relative sea level rise will be 0.28 m by the year 2100. Based on the large spatial resolution IPCC AR5 sea level projections, the relative sea level rise will be on the same scale: 0.2–0.4 m.

Simulating horizontal crustal motions of glacial isostatic adjustment using compressible Cartesian models

SUMMARY Significant land uplift and horizontal motions have been recorded with Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in areas such as Alaska, Iceland and the Northern Antarctic Peninsula (NAP) as a result of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) due to ice melt after the Little Ice Age. Here, analysis of horizontal displacement rates can be of extra importance, as they are more sensitive to Earth properties in shallower layers than vertical displacement rates. Proper modelling of horizontal displacement rates with dedicated GIA models requires a spherical Earth with compressible rheology. However, in these small areas, the used GIA models are often incompressible using a Cartesian geometry to ease computation and in some cases allow for lateral viscosity changes or more complex rheology. We investigate the validity of modelled horizontal displacement rates using different approximations, that is using spherical or Cartesian Earth structures, and incompressible, material compressible or compressible rheology. Although the lack of self-gravity and sphericity compensate each other in the vertical, this is less the case for the horizontal. For a disc ice sheet with a radius just over 200 km and a thickness of 1000 m, differences due to sphericity are minimal and the modelled horizontal displacement rates of compressible Cartesian models differ from those simulated by a compressible spherical model by 0.63 mm a−1. Thus, compressible Cartesian GIA models can be applied for modelling horizontal displacement rates of small ice sheets like those in Alaska, Iceland and NAP. Unfortunately, the implementation of compressibility in Abaqus that we use here cannot be extended to spherical models as gravity can not be specified for a spherical body. Other modelling approaches are recommended in such cases.

Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium-emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 % to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from −28 (−54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.

Genomic footprints of bottleneck in landlocked salmon population

At the end of the last ice age, several Atlantic salmon populations got caught up in the lakes and ponds of the Northern Hemisphere. Occasionally, the populations also got locked when the flow of rivers terminated from reaching the sea due to land upheaval. Therefore, the pattern of evolution shaping the landlocked salmon populations is different from the other anadromous salmons, which migrate between the sea and rivers. According to the theories of population genetics, the effect of genetic drift is expected to be more pronounced in the former compared to the latter. Here we examined this using the whole genome data of landlocked and anadromous salmon populations of Norway. Our results showed a 50–80% reduction in the genomic heterozygosity in the landlocked compared to anadromous salmon populations. The number and total size of the runs of homozygosity (RoH) segments of landlocked salmons were two to eightfold higher than those of their anadromous counterparts. We found the former had a higher ratio of nonsynonymous-to-synonymous diversities than the latter. The investigation also revealed a significant elevation of homozygous deleterious Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs) in the landlocked salmon compared to the anadromous populations. All these results point to a significant reduction in the population size of the landlocked salmons. This process of reduction might have started recently as the phylogeny revealed a recent separation of the landlocked from the anadromous population. Previous studies on terrestrial vertebrates observed similar signatures of a bottleneck when the populations from Island and the mainland were compared. Since landlocked waterbody such as ponds and lakes are geographically analogous to Islands for fish populations, the findings of this study suggest the similarity in the patterns of evolution between the two.