Subsidence and Uplift in Active and Closed Lignite Mines: Impacts of Energy Transition and Climate Change

Abstract

This study examines the combined effects of decommissioning lignite mining operations and long-term climate trends on groundwater systems and land surface movements in the Konin region of Poland, which is characterised by extensive open-pit lignite extraction. The findings reveal subsidence rates ranging from −26 to 14 mm per year within mining zones, while land uplift of a few millimetres per year occurred in closed mining areas between 2015 and 2022. Groundwater levels in shallow Quaternary and deeper Paleogene–Neogene aquifers have declined significantly, with drops of up to 26 m observed near active mining, particularly between 2009 and 2019. A smaller groundwater decline of around a few metres was observed outside areas influenced by mining. Meteorological data show an average annual temperature of 8.9 °C from 1991 to 2023, with a clear warming trend of 0.0050 °C per year since 2009. Although precipitation patterns show a slight increase from 512 mm to 520 mm, a shift towards drier conditions has emerged since 2009, characterised by more frequent dry spells. These climatic trends, combined with mining activities, highlight the need for adaptive groundwater management strategies. Future research should focus on enhanced monitoring of groundwater recovery and sustainable practices in post-mining landscapes.