Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland

Abstract

Abstract. We explore past trends and future projections of mean sea level (MSL) at the Finnish coast, in the northeastern Baltic Sea, during the period 1901–2100. We decompose the relative MSL change into three components: regional sea level rise (SLR), postglacial land uplift, and the effect of changes in wind climate. Past trends of regional SLR can be calculated after subtracting the other two components from the MSL trends observed by tide gauges, as the land uplift rates obtained from the semi-empirical model NKG2016LU are independent of tide gauge observations. According to the results, local absolute SLR trends are close to global mean rates. To construct future projections, we combine an ensemble of global SLR projections in a probabilistic framework. In addition, we use climate model results to estimate future changes in wind climate and their effect on MSL in the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea. This yields probability distributions of MSL change for three scenarios representing different future emission pathways. Spatial variations in the MSL projections result primarily from different local land uplift rates: under the medium-emission scenario RCP4.5/SSP2-4.5, for example, the projected MSL change (5 % to 95 % range) over the 21st century varies from −28 (−54 to 24) cm in the Bothnian Bay to 31 (5 to 83) cm in the eastern Gulf of Finland.