Joinpoint Regression Analysis Research Articles

Incidence distributions, risk factors and trends of vaginal cancer: A global population-based study.

This study aimed to investigate the incidence, risk factors and trends for vaginal cancer. Retrospective observational design. Data were collected from multiple sources, including the Global Cancer Observatory, Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus, Global Burden of Disease, World Bank and the United Nations. Individuals diagnosed with vaginal cancer. The study collected data on vaginal cancer from the specified sources. The age-standardised rate (ASR) of vaginal cancer was calculated for different regions and age groups. Multivariable and univariable linear regression analyses were performed to examine the associations between risk factors and the incidence of vaginal cancer. Trend analysis was conducted using joinpoint regression analysis, and the average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trend. The main outcome measures of the study were the incidence of vaginal cancer, risk factors associated with the disease and the trend of its incidence over time. There were 17 908 newly reported cases of vaginal cancer (ASR = 0.36, 95% CI 0.30-0.44) in 2020, with the highest ASRs reported in South-Central Asia and Southern Africa. Risk factors associated with a higher incidence of vaginal cancer included a higher prevalence of unsafe sex and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. The temporal trend showed an overall rising incidence globally, with Iceland (AAPC = 29.56, 95% CI 12.12-49.71), Chile (AAPC = 22.83, 95% CI 13.20-33.27), Bahrain (AAPC = 22.05, 95% CI 10.83-34.40) and the UK (AAPC = 1.40, 95% CI 0.41-2.39) demonstrating the most significant rising trends. The significant regional disparities and risk factors associated with vaginal cancer underscore the necessity for targeted interventions and education, particularly in regions with a lower human development index (HDI) and a higher prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. The increasing incidence trend emphasises the need for enhanced HPV vaccination rates to prevent the development of vaginal cancer.

Trend Analysis of Unintentional Fall Mortality and Years of Life Lost in the Fars Province of Iran, 2004-2019

Background: Unintentional falls are one of the main causes of death and a significant burden on victims, families, and communities. This study aimed to determine the trend analysis of mortality rate and years of life lost (YLL) due to unintentional falls in Fars Province, Iran. Methods: All deaths due to unintentional fall in Fars Province, central Iran from the electronic population-based death registration system (EDRS) were obtained. Crude and age-standardized mortality rate, YLL and YLL rate data were calculated and to examine the trend, joinpoint regression was used. Results: During the 16-year study period (2004-2019), 1816 deaths due to falls occurred in Fars Province. Crude mortality rate had stable trend in men and increasing trend in women. The total years of life lost due to falls, were 25,437 in men and 5,720 in women. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the 16-year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was decreasing in males. The annual percent change (APC) was -2.8% (95% CI -4.5 to -1.0, P=0.005). However, there were stable trends for females, APC was 3.5% (95% CI -1.8 to 9.1, P=0.181). Conclusion: Due to the increase in mortality caused by falls in women and stable trend in men, there is an urgent need to plan and implement preventive strategies to reduce the incidence of injuries caused by falls. Home and behavioral modifications such as increasing home lighting, providing handrails on stairs and bathrooms, and educating the people may play an important role in reducing fall deaths.

Trends and Patterns of Top Ten Common Cancers in Eastern India from 2014 to 2021: A Retrospective Hospital-based Cancer Registry Data Update.

India is a vast and diverse country with existing variations in the frequency and distribution of cancers across its various parts. In regions lacking population-based cancer registries (PBCRs) in a vast country like India, hospital-based cancer registry (HBCR) data become an important source of information on the trends and patterns of a region. To determine the numerical trends of cases of the top ten cancer sites reporting to HBCR of a tertiary care cancer center in Bihar from 2014 to 2021. The details of all histopathologically confirmed cancer cases registered in the HBCR department of radiation oncology, State Cancer Institute, Indira Gandhi Institute of Medical Sciences, Patna, India between January 2014 and December 2021 were included in this retrospective observational study. All these cases were grouped site-wise and listed in descending order of the total number of cases reported in each group. Cross-tabulation with age and sex distribution was done. The frequency distribution of the top ten leading cancers for every consecutive calendar year was plotted in line diagrams for time trend analysis. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, Version 20.0. Armonk, NY: IBM Corp.). was used for analysis. Annual percent change (APC) was determined for the number of cases of all ten cancer sites using joinpoint regression analysis (Joinpoint Regression Software, Version 4.0.4-May 2013; Statistical Methodology and Applications Branch, Surveillance Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute; Bethesda, MD, USA). Out of 32,057 total cancer cases registered between Jan 2014 and Dec 2021, 21,848 patients (68.2%) cases constituted the top ten cancers. The top ten cancers among both sexes were cancer gallbladder (n = 4204, 13.1%), head and neck (n = 3395, 10.6%), breast (n = 3392, 10.6%), lung (n = 2069, 6.5%), cervix (n = 2039, 6.4%), hematolymphoid (n = 1930, 6.0%), liver (n = 1572, 4.9%), stomach (n = 1116, 3.5%), ovary (n = 1103, 3.4%), and colon-rectum (n = 1028, 3.2%). Except for cervical and hematolymphoid cancers, the rest all showed a rising trend over consecutive years. Cancer of the gallbladder continues to be among the most common cancers in the region. Focused research in all aspects of this deadly disease is needed. Strengthening of prevention and screening programs for common cancers and upliftment of the existing infrastructure for diagnosis and treatment of cancer in the region are necessitated.

Trends in commonly used and potentially inappropriate medications in older Korean patients with polypharmacy

BackgroundPolypharmacy is a global public health concern. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of polypharmacy and trends in the use of commonly used and potentially inappropriate medications among older Korean patients.MethodsIndividuals aged ≥ 65 years who were prescribed any medication between 2014 and 2018 were selected from the Korean National Health Information Database. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to determine trends in the age-adjusted polypharmacy rates by age group. The prescription rates of the most commonly used medications and the most commonly used potentially inappropriate medications were analysed by year or age group for patients with polypharmacy using the chi-square and proportion difference tests.ResultsThis study included 1,849,968 patients, 661,206 (35.7%) of whom had polypharmacy. Age-adjusted polypharmacy rates increased significantly between 2014 and 2018 (P = 0.046). Among patients with polypharmacy, the most commonly prescribed medications were aspirin (100 mg), atorvastatin, metformin, glimepiride, and rosuvastatin. The most commonly prescribed and potentially inappropriate medications were alprazolam, diazepam, amitriptyline, zolpidem, and dimenhydrinate. There was a significant decrease in the prescription rates for each of these drugs in 2018 compared with 2014 among patients with polypharmacy (all P < 0.001), whereas there was a significant increase in alprazolam prescription among patients aged ≥ 85 years when analysed by age group (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThis study revealed an increasing prevalence of polypharmacy among older adults. Additionally, it highlighted that the utilisation of commonly prescribed potentially inappropriate medications, such as benzodiazepines and tricyclic antidepressants, has remained persistent, particularly among patients aged ≥ 85 years who practiced polypharmacy. These findings provide evidence-based guidance for the development of robust polypharmacy management strategies to ensure medication safety among older adults.

Acute kidney injury after non-cardiac major surgery: has it reduced?

ABSTRACT Background It remains unclear whether the incidence of post-operative acute kidney injury (PO-AKI) has been reduced despite the recent emphasis on its early recognition and prevention in clinical practice. We aimed to investigate the trend in the incidence of PO-AKI and to identify the associated factors affecting its changes. Methods We gathered clinical data from patients who underwent non-cardiac major surgeries at three referral hospitals from 2005 to 2020. PO-AKI was defined as KDIGO AKI criteria within 7 days after surgery. Severe PO-AKI (S-PO-AKI) was defined as stage 2 or 3 AKI. The temporal change of PO-AKI was evaluated by joinpoint regression analysis and multivariable logistic regression based on a 3-year interval. Results Among 138 235 patients, 8156 (5.9%) PO-AKI and 1127 (0.8%) S-PO-AKI occurred, respectively. The patients enrolled in recent years were older and more were women. They had more comorbidities and a higher PO-AKI risk compared with those included in past years. As time passed, the PO-AKI incidence decreased from 8.6% in 2005–07 to 5.1% in 2017–20, whereas S-PO-AKI incidence did not change (0.8% to 0.9%). In joinpoint analysis, PO-AKI incidence tended to decrease with annual percentage change (APC) of –4.2% per year [95% confidence interval (CI) –5.5% to –2.8%, P-value &amp;lt;.001), although S-PO-AKI did not (APC 0.9%, 95% CI –1.1 to 2.9%, P-value = .347). Similarly, the overall PO-AKI incidence decreased but S-PO-AKI did not, even after adjusting covariables. Conclusion The incidence of PO-AKI has decreased recently despite the increase in known risk factors; however, the incidence of S-PO-AKI has not decreased in recent years. Trial registration information ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05986474. Name of registry: Development of Synthetic Medical Data Generation Technology to Predict Postoperative Complications. URL: https://classic.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT05986474. Date of registration: 14 August 2023. Date of enrollment of the first participant to the trial: 27 September 2022, retrospectively registered.

Sex and Racial Disparities in Proportionate Mortality of Premature Myocardial Infarction in the United States: 1999 to 2020.

The incidence of premature myocardial infarction (PMI) in women (<65 years and men <55 years) is increasing. We investigated proportionate mortality trends in PMI stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity. CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify PMI deaths within the United States between 1999 and 2020, and trends in proportionate mortality of PMI were calculated using the Joinpoint regression analysis. We identified 3 017 826 acute myocardial infarction deaths, with 373 317 PMI deaths corresponding to proportionate mortality of 12.5% (men 12%, women 14%). On trend analysis, proportionate mortality of PMI increased from 10.5% in 1999 to 13.2% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 1.0 [0.8-1.2, P <0.01]) with a significant increase in women from 10% in 1999 to 17% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 2.4 [1.8-3.0, P <0.01]) and no significant change in men, 11% in 1999 to 10% in 2020 (average annual percent change of -0.2 [-0.7 to 0.3, P=0.4]). There was a significant increase in proportionate mortality in both Black and White populations, with no difference among American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Hispanic people. American Indian/Alaska Natives had the highest PMI mortality with no significant change over time. Over the last 2 decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportionate mortality of PMI in women and the Black population, with persistently high PMI in American Indian/Alaska Natives, despite an overall downtrend in acute myocardial infarction-related mortality. Further research to determine the underlying cause of these differences in PMI mortality is required to improve the outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in these populations.

Temporal Analysis of the Incidence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Benign Gallbladder and Biliary Diseases in High-Income Nations, 1990-2019.

The aim of this observational study was to analyze trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of benign gallbladder and biliary diseases across high-income countries between 1990 and 2019. Benign gallbladder and biliary diseases place a substantial burden on healthcare systems in high-income countries. Accurate characterization of the disease burden may help optimize healthcare policy and resource distribution. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and DALYs data for gallbladder and biliary diseases in males and females were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. A mortality-incidence index (MII) was also calculated. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed. The median ASIRs across the European Union 15+ countries in 2019 were 758/100,000 for females and 282/100,000 for males. Between 1990 and 2019 the median percentage change in ASIR was +2.49% for females and +1.07% for males. The median ASMRs in 2019 were 1.22/100,000 for females and 1.49/100,000 for males with a median percentage change over the observation period of -21.93% and -23.01%, respectively. In 2019, the median DALYs was 65/100,000 for females and 37/100,000 among males, with comparable percentage decreases over the observation period of -21.27% and -19.23%, respectively. International variation in lifestyle factors, diagnostic and management strategies likely account for national and sex disparities. This study highlights the importance of ongoing clinical efforts to optimize treatment pathways for gallbladder and biliary diseases, particularly in the provision of emergency surgical services and efforts to address population risk factors.

Thyroid cancer trends in China and its comparative analysis with G20 countries: Projections for 2020-2040.

Thyroid cancer, a leading type of endocrine cancer, accounts for 3-4% of all cancer diagnoses. This study aims to analyse and compare thyroid cancer patterns in China and the Group twenty (G20) countries, and predict these trend for the upcoming two decades. This observational longitudinal study utilised data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. We used metrics including incidence, mortality, mortality-incidence ratio (MIR), age-standardised rate (ASR) and average annual percent change (AAPC) to examine thyroid cancer trends. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify periods manifesting notable changes. The association between sociodemographic index (SDI) and AAPC were investigated. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict thyroid cancer trends from 2020 to 2040. From 1990 to 2019, thyroid cancer incidence cases in China increased by 289.6%, with a higher AAPC of age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) in men. Contrastingly, the G20 demonstrated a smaller increase, particularly among women over 50. Despite the overall age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) was higher in the G20, the increase in mortality was less pronounced than in China. Age-standardised incidence rate increased across all age groups and genders, with a notable rise among men aged 15-49. ASMR decreased in specific age groups and genders, especially among women. Conversely, the ASMR significantly increased in group aged over 70. The MIR exhibited a declining trend, but this decrease was less noticeable in men and the group aged over 70. Joinpoint analysis pinpointed significant shifts in overall ASIR and ASMR, with the most pronounced increase in ASIR during 2003-2011 in China and 2003-2010 in the G20. Predictions suggested a continual ASIR uptrend, especially in the 50-69 age group, coupled with a predicted ASMR downturn among the elderly by 2040. Moreover, the proportion of thyroid cancer deaths attributable to high body mass index (BMI) escalated, with significant increase in Saudi Arabia and a rise to 7.4% in China in 2019. Thyroid cancer cases in incidence and mortality are escalating in both China and the G20. The increasing trend may be attributed to factors beyond overdiagnosis, including environmental and genetic factors. These findings emphasise the necessity for augmenting prevention, control, and treatment strategies. They also highlight the significance of international collaboration in addressing the global challenge posed by thyroid cancer.

Trends in cardiovascular risk factor prevalence, treatment, and control among US adolescents aged 12 to 19 years, 2001 to March 2020

BackgroundEarly-life cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) are known to be associated with target organ damage during adolescence and premature cardiovascular morbidity and mortality during adulthood. However, contemporary data describing whether the prevalence of CVRFs and treatment and control rates have changed are limited. This study aimed to examine the temporal trends in the prevalence, treatment, and control of CVRFs among US adolescents over the past 2 decades.MethodsThis is a serial cross-sectional study using data from nine National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey cycles (January 2001—March 2020). US adolescents (aged 12 to 19 years) with information regarding CVRFs (including hypertension, elevated blood pressure [BP], diabetes, prediabetes, hyperlipidemia, obesity, overweight, cigarette use, inactive physical activity, and poor diet quality) were included. Age-adjusted trends in CVRF prevalence, treatment, and control were examined. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to estimate changes in the prevalence, treatment, and control over time. The variation by sociodemographic characteristics were also described.ResultsA total of 15,155 US adolescents aged 12 to 19 years (representing ≈ 32.4 million people) were included. From 2001 to March 2020, there was an increase in the prevalence of prediabetes (from 12.5% [95% confidence interval (CI), 10.2%-14.9%] to 37.6% [95% CI, 29.1%-46.2%]) and overweight/obesity (from 21.1% [95% CI, 19.3%-22.8%] to 24.8% [95% CI, 21.4%-28.2%]; from 16.0% [95% CI, 14.1%-17.9%] to 20.3% [95% CI, 17.9%-22.7%]; respectively), no improvement in the prevalence of elevated BP (from 10.4% [95% CI, 8.9%-11.8%] to 11.0% [95% CI, 8.7%-13.4%]), diabetes (from 0.7% [95% CI, 0.2%-1.2%] to 1.2% [95% CI, 0.3%-2.2%]), and poor diet quality (from 76.1% [95% CI, 74.0%-78.2%] to 71.7% [95% CI, 68.5%-74.9%]), and a decrease in the prevalence of hypertension (from 8.1% [95% CI, 6.9%-9.4%] to 5.5% [95% CI, 3.7%-7.3%]), hyperlipidemia (from 34.2% [95% CI, 30.9%-37.5%] to 22.8% [95% CI, 18.7%-26.8%]), cigarette use (from 18.0% [95% CI, 15.7%-20.3%] to 3.5% [95% CI, 2.0%-5.0%]), and inactive physical activity (from 83.0% [95% CI, 80.7%-85.3%] to 9.5% [95% CI, 4.2%-14.8%]). Sex and race/ethnicity affected the evolution of CVRF prevalence differently. Whilst treatment rates for hypertension and diabetes did not improve significantly (from 9.6% [95% CI, 3.5%-15.8%] to 6.0% [95% CI, 1.4%-10.6%]; from 51.0% [95% CI, 23.3%-78.7%] to 26.5% [95% CI, 0.0%-54.7%]; respectively), BP control was relatively stable (from 75.7% [95% CI, 56.8%-94.7%] to 73.5% [95% CI, 40.3%-100.0%]), while glycemic control improved to a certain extent, although it remained suboptimal (from 11.8% [95% CI, 0.0%-31.5%] to 62.7% [95% CI, 62.7%-62.7%]).ConclusionsFrom 2001 to March 2020, although prediabetes and overweight/obesity increased, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, cigarette use, and inactive physical activity decreased among US adolescents aged 12 to 19 years, whereas elevated BP, diabetes, and poor diet quality remained unchanged. There were disparities in CVRF prevalence and trends across sociodemographic subpopulations. While treatment and control rates for hypertension and diabetes plateaued, BP control were stable, and improved glycemic control was observed.

Cardiovascular mortality among patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: a population-based study

We aim to investigate cardiovascular mortality risk among diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients and explore cardiovascular mortality trends in the past decades in United States. We extracted data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for adult patients diagnosed with DLBCL between 1975 and 2019. Standardized mortality ratio, joinpoint regression analysis, and competing risk model were analyzed. Overall, 49,918 patients were enrolled, of whom 4167 (8.3%) cardiovascular deaths were observed, which was 1.22 times the number expected (95%CI, 1.19–1.26). During 1985–2019, the incidence-based cardiovascular mortality rate increased by 0.98% per year (95%CI, 0.58–1.39%), with statistically significant increases in age groups younger than 75 years. The cumulative mortality from cardiovascular disease increased by age but never exceeded that from DLBCL. Older age, male sex, earlier year of diagnosis, lower tumor stage at diagnosis, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery were all poor prognostic factors for cardiovascular mortality.

Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions

PurposeTo use data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report the global, regional and national rates and trends of deaths incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Nasopharynx cancer (NPC) in adolescents and young adults (AYAs).MethodsData from the GBD 2019 were used to analyze deaths incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to NPC at global, regional, and national levels. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percentage changes (AAPC). The association between incidence, prevalence and DALYs and socioeconomic development was analyzed using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Finally, projections were made until 2030 and calculated in Nordpred.ResultsThe incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs rates (95%UI) due to NPC 0.96 (0.85–1.09, 6.31 (5.54–7.20),0.20 (0.19–0.22), and 12.23(11.27–13.29) in 2019, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence and prevalence rates increased by 1.79 (95% CI 1.03 to 2.55) and 2.97(95% CI 2.13 to 3.82) respectively while the deaths and DALYs rates declined by 1.64(95%CI 1.78 to 1.49) and 1.6(95%CI 1.75 to 1.4) respectively. Deaths and DALYs rates in South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and Middle East decreased with SDI. Incidence and prevalence rates in East Asia increased with SDI. At the national level, the incidence and prevalence rates are high in China, Taiwan(China), Singapore, Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Malta. Meanwhile, the deaths and DALYs rates are still high in Malaysia, Brunel Darussalam, Greenland and Taiwan(Province of China). The deaths and DALYs rates are low in Honduras, Finland and Norway. From the 2020 to 2030, ASIR、ASPR and ASDR in most regions are predicted to stable, but DALYs tends to decline.ConclusionNPC in AYAs is a significant global public problem. The incidence, prevalence, and DALYs rates vary widely by region and country. Therefore different regions and countries should be targeted to improve the disease burden of NPC.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of acute myocardial infarction in Shandong Province

Objective: To understand the characteristics and trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Shandong Province and to provide evidence for formulating prevention and control strategies. Methods: Data were derived from the AMI incidence reports of Shandong Province's Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System in 2012-2021. The crude and standardized incidence rates were used as indicators to describe the incidence level of AMI. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trends in the incidence and age of onset over the years. The contribution of population aging to the increase in AMI incidence was assessed using the rate difference decomposition method. The incidence of AMI in each district (county) in Shandong Province was visualized using ArcGIS 10.8 software, and global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using DeoDa 1.12 software. Results: From 2012 to 2021, 198 233 cases of AMI were reported from 19 provincial monitoring sites in Shandong Province, of which 53.13% were males and 97.12% were ≥45 years old. The reported crude incidence increased from 90.12 per 100 000 in 2012 to 176.54 per 100 000 in 2021, with an average annual increase of 7.01% (Z=7.35, P<0.001). There was no significant upward trend in standardized incidence (Z=1.64, P=0.140), but the standardized incidence of male residents showed an increasing trend (Z=2.76, P=0.028). Before 2014, the reported crude incidence of males was similar to that of females, but after 2014, the reported crude incidence of males was continuously higher than that of females. However, males' standardized incidence was higher than females in all years. Both crude and standardized incidence rates were higher in rural residents than in urban areas. The median onset of AMI increased from 71.6 years old in 2012 to 73.5 years old in 2021. The median age of onset in males was lower than that in females in all years, and in most years, the median age of onset in urban residents was lower than that in rural residents. The incidence of AMI in males showed a trend in younger age groups. According to the seasonal decomposition, the incidence peak of AMI was in January, and the trough was in September. The contribution of aging population to the increase in crude incidence of AMI increased from 8.63% in 2013 to 52.58% in 2021. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of AMI presented an obvious spatial clustering distribution. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the high-incidence areas (counties) were mainly concentrated in Liaocheng City and Dezhou City in the northwest region of Shandong Province and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions: The incidence of AMI among residents in Shandong Province was rising, with spatial clustering and seasonal clustering characteristics. People aged 45 years and older, male residents, and rural residents were at high risk of developing AMI. There was a certain trend of younger age at onset among men. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-incidence seasons, high-risk groups, and high-incidence clustering areas in northwestern Shandong Province.

Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021

Objective: The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed, and the tuberculosis mortality rate from 2022 to 2027 was predicted to provide a reference for tuberculosis prevention and control in China. Methods: The data set of tuberculosis deaths from 2006 to 2021 was published regularly by the China CDC, and the crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated according to the population structure of China in 2000. The distribution characteristics of age, sex, region, and time of tuberculosis deaths were analyzed, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze the changing trend, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results: From 2006 to 2021, the CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis showed a downward trend among males and females, urban and rural areas, and all age groups, in a word, all the Chinese residents. Except for the age group ≥85 years old, the mortality trend was insignificant. In the eastern, central, or western regions. CMR and ASMR were significantly higher in males than in females.CMR and ASMR were significantly lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In general, active tuberculosis patients present a higher mortality rate. The CMR and ASMR in the western region were higher than those in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern region than in the central region, but the differences were less obvious. The ASMR of the eastern cities was lower than that of the central and western regions, and the ASMR of the central cities was higher than that of the western region from 2006 to 2009 and 2012 and lower than that of the western region in other years. The ASMR in the western countryside was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern part than in the central region, but the difference was not obvious. The grey model prediction results show that the CMR (/100 000) of Chinese residents from 2022 to 2027 is 1.585, 1.471, 1.360, 1.250, 1.143, and 1.038, and the ASMR (/100 000) is 0.779, 0.653, 0.531, 0.411, 0.295 and 0.181, respectively. Conclusions: The CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis will continue to decline, and extraordinary achievements have been made in tuberculosis prevention and control in Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and, presumably, from 2022 to 2027. However, tuberculosis screening and treatment programs in the western region, men, the elderly population, and rural areas should be further strengthened, and targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated to reduce mortality.

Impact of alcohol control policy on hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality rates in Lithuania: An interrupted time series analysis.

Given the causal impact of alcohol use on stroke, alcohol control policies should presumably reduce stroke mortality rates. This study aimed to test the impact of three major Lithuanian alcohol control policies implemented in 2008, 2017 and 2018 on sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rates, among individuals 15+ years-old. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed for each sex- and stroke subtype-specific group to identify timepoints corresponding with significant changes in mortality rate trends. To estimate the impact of each policy, interrupted time series analyses using a generalized additive mixed model were performed on monthly sex- and stroke subtype-specific age-standardized mortality rates from January 2001-December 2018. Significant average annual percent decreases were found for all sex- and stroke subtype-specific mortality rate trends. The alcohol control policies were most impactful on ischemic stroke mortality rates among women. The 2008 policy was followed by a positive level change of 4,498 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women and a negative monthly slope change of -0.048 ischemic stroke deaths per 100,000 women. Both the 2017 and 2018 policy enactment timepoints coincided with a significant negative level change for ischemic stroke mortality rates among women, at -0.901 deaths and -1.431 deaths per 100,000 population, respectively. Hemorrhagic stroke mortality among men was not affected by any of the policies, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality among women and ischemic stroke mortality among men were only associated with the 2008 policy. Our study findings suggest that the impact of alcohol control policies on stroke mortality may vary by sex and subtype.

Trends and disparities in the incidence and mortality of stomach cancer in the United States.

e16102 Background: Stomach cancer is the fifth most common cancer worldwide and has one of the lowest survival rates across all malignancies. There is a constant need to define current stomach cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates among different population groups for improved clinical practice. We aimed to investigate the trends of stomach cancer incidence and IBM by population characteristics of age groups, gender and ethnic groups. Methods: Data obtained from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End results (SEER) Registry 12 were obtained to determine the incidence and IBM rate of stomach incidence from 1992 to 2020. Joinpoint Regression Analysis program was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) for trend analysis. Results: A total of 82,810 stomach cancer patients were identified from the dataset. Most of the patients were males; N = 49,909(60.27%) and Non-Hispanic Whites, N = 40,894 (49.38%). The overall incidence rate was 8.00 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 7.95 to 8.06) and the overall IBM rate was 6.44 (95%CI: 6.39 to 6.49). The incidence rate of stomach cancer decreased significantly by 1.28 % per year from 1992 to 2020; however the degree of decline from 1992 to 2017, APC (-1.18, 95% CI: -1.27 to -1.04, p &lt; .001) was lower compared to between 2017 and 2020, APC (-3.42, 95% CI: -6.08 to -1.69, p = 0.01). Conversely, IBM rate increased significantly from 1992 to 1994, APC (36.59, 95% CI: 22.51 to 52.29, p &lt; .001) followed by a significant decrease from 1994 to 2020, APC (-1.29, 95%CI: -1.43 to -1.15, p &lt; .001).Incidence rates reduced significantly from 1992 to 2020 for all gender, ethnic and age groups except among the Non-Hispanic Asian Indian or Alaska Native (NHAIAN) population with APC (-0.67, 95 CI% -1.93 to 0.61, p = 0.29) and &lt; 60 years age group with APC (0.03, 95 CI % : 0.18 to 0.25, p = 0.76). Significant decline in IBM rate was observed from 2000 to 2020 across all gender, ethnicities and age groups except among the NHAIAN, APC (-0.21, 95 CI%: -1.26 to 0.84, p = 0.68) and the &lt; 60 years age group, APC (0.16, 95 CI%: -0.33 to -0.65, p = 0.52). Conclusions: Stomach cancer incidence and IBM rates have decreased significantly over the last 20 years except in NHAIAN and &lt; 60 years age populations. These findings suggest the need for further research focused efforts in these potentially high-risk groups.

Trend Analysis of Suicide Mortality and Years of Life Lost from 2016 to 2021 in Southern Iran.

Suicide as the commonest psychiatric emergency imposes a heavy burden on communities. We aimed to evaluate the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death from suicide in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran. Data regarding suicidal deaths were extracted from the Forensic Medicine Organization. The YLL of each year were calculated among gender and age groups. The YLL calculation was performed using the 2015 WHO excel calendars template. The Join Point Regression method was used to examine the trend of the crude mortality rate, the standardized mortality rate, and the YLL rate. Overall, 572 people died by suicide between 2016 and 2021 (63.5% in males and 36. 5% in females). The main method of death in most cases was hanging (52.8%). The total YLL due to premature death in the 6 year- period was 9248 (4.2 per 1000 persons) in males, 5602 (2.6 per 1000 persons) in females. Hanging (7909) compromised the largest YLL category between different methods of suicide. According to the joinpoint regression analysis, the 6-year trend of YLL rate due to premature mortality was increasing in males: the annual percent change (APC) was 4.8% (95% CI 1.0 to 8.7, P=0.024) and stable trend for females. The YLL was higher in men than in women. Effective training interventions should be designed and implemented to reduce the incidence of suicide.

Global, regional, and national burdens of cancer in children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019.

The description of long-term trends in the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years from 1990 to 2019 reveals significant changes in children's health. It helps in resource allocation and health policy planning. We analysed data on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) by sex and age group in children aged zero to nine. Estimates of DALYs for children aged zero to nine years, appeared as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study 2019, by age, sex, and location for 1990-2019. We also provided estimations by the sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile, a systematic measure to indicate educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. We used age-period-cohort models to investigate paediatric cancers prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates and auto-regressive integrated moving average models to predict cancer in children of different age groups in males and females. A total of 6 224 010 DALY numbers for cancer cases occurred globally in 2019 among children aged zero to nine years. Additionally, the incidence of paediatric cancers in 2019 in the middle SDI countries was the highest, including 60 662 cases, and the highest mortality and DALYs cases of paediatric cancers were in the low SDI countries (25 502 and 2 199 790). The joinpoint regression analysis revealed that the trend of total cancer burden in age-standardised mortality rates and age-standardised DALYs rates showed a significant decrease with an average annual percentage change of -2.10 and -2.03 from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the paediatric cancer spectrum was changing. Other malignant neoplasms and other leukaemia were the major components of cancer in all age groups of children. The disease burden in children aged zero to nine years decreased significantly globally from 1990 to 2019. However, the overall prediction of childhood cancer increased slightly from 2020 to 2040. Our findings may help guide investments and inform policies. This highlights the necessity to improve current treatment measures and establish effective prevention strategies to reduce the cancer burden among children aged zero to nine years.

Joinpoint regression analysis of recent trends in desmoplastic malignant melanoma incidence and mortality: 15-year multicentre retrospective study.

Recent data reveal a marked rise in the detection and mortality rates of Desmoplastic Malignant Melanoma (DMM). This trend underscores the imperative for an in-depth analysis of DMM's epidemiology, which is crucial for the formulation of precise medical and public health strategies. This investigation seeks to elucidate the variations in the incidence and mortality of DMM over a 15-year period (2005-2019). Data on DMM patients was sourced from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Both incidence and incidence-based mortality rates (IBM) were directly extracted from the SEER database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze and calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). Between 2005 and 2019, 3,384 DMM cases were identified, boasting an age-adjusted incidence rate of 36.3 cases per 1000,000 person-years (95% CI 3.51-3.76) and an IBM of 1.65cases per 1000,000 person-years (95% CI 1.57-1.74). Of these, 2,353 were males (69.53%) and 1,031 were females (30.47%). There were 1894 patients (55.97%) who were over 70years old. Predominantly, DMM lesions manifested in exposed areas: Limbs (955, 28.22%), Face (906, 26.77%), and Scalp and Neck (865, 25.56%). The incidence of DMM increased significantly at a rate of APC = 0.9% during 2005-2019, while the incidence-based mortality showed a significant upward trend (APC = 7%) during 2005-2012, and slowly increasing trend (APC = 0.6%) during 2012-2019. In contrast to the modest upward trajectory in female incidence and mortality, male incidence initially surged, later declining, while male mortality peaked and stabilized post-2012. The primary sites for incidence and mortality were chronically sun-exposed areas: Face, Scalp and Neck, and Limbs. In recent years, the incidence and incidence-based mortality of DMM have significantly increased. Each subgroup analysis has different trends, and these trends can provide better support for our exploration of DMM.

Public and Research Interest in Telemedicine From 2017 to 2022: Infodemiology Study of Google Trends Data and Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Literature.

Telemedicine offers a multitude of potential advantages, such as enhanced health care accessibility, cost reduction, and improved patient outcomes. The significance of telemedicine has been underscored by the COVID-19 pandemic, as it plays a crucial role in maintaining uninterrupted care while minimizing the risk of viral exposure. However, the adoption and implementation of telemedicine have been relatively sluggish in certain areas. Assessing the level of interest in telemedicine can provide valuable insights into areas that require enhancement. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the level of public and research interest in telemedicine from 2017 to 2022 and also consider any potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Google Trends data were retrieved using the search topics "telemedicine" or "e-health" to assess public interest, geographic distribution, and trends through a joinpoint regression analysis. Bibliographic data from Scopus were used to chart publications referencing the terms "telemedicine" or "eHealth" (in the title, abstract, and keywords) in terms of scientific production, key countries, and prominent keywords, as well as collaboration and co-occurrence networks. Worldwide, telemedicine generated higher mean public interest (relative search volume=26.3%) compared to eHealth (relative search volume=17.6%). Interest in telemedicine remained stable until January 2020, experienced a sudden surge (monthly percent change=95.7%) peaking in April 2020, followed by a decline (monthly percent change=-22.7%) until August 2020, and then returned to stability. A similar trend was noted in the public interest regarding eHealth. Chile, Australia, Canada, and the United States had the greatest public interest in telemedicine. In these countries, moderate to strong correlations were evident between Google Trends and COVID-19 data (ie, new cases, new deaths, and hospitalized patients). Examining 19,539 original medical articles in the Scopus database unveiled a substantial rise in telemedicine-related publications, showing a total increase of 201.5% from 2017 to 2022 and an average annual growth rate of 24.7%. The most significant surge occurred between 2019 and 2020. Notably, the majority of the publications originated from a single country, with 20.8% involving international coauthorships. As the most productive country, the United States led a cluster that included Canada and Australia as well. European, Asian, and Latin American countries made up the remaining 3 clusters. The co-occurrence network categorized prevalent keywords into 2 clusters, the first cluster primarily focused on applying eHealth, mobile health (mHealth), or digital health to noncommunicable or chronic diseases; the second cluster was centered around the application of telemedicine and telehealth within the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of search and bibliographic data over time and across regions allows us to gauge the interest in this topic, offer evidence regarding potential applications, and pinpoint areas for additional research and awareness-raising initiatives.

Impact of HIV preexposure prophylaxis prescriptions on HIV diagnoses in New York City.

HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has proven to be efficacious and effective in preventing HIV infections, but few studies have reported its impact in the real world. We conducted an ecological analysis and compared the trends in HIV PrEP prescriptions with the trends in age-adjusted HIV diagnosis rates in New York City (NYC). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify any temporal trends in HIV diagnosis rates in NYC. The number of people filling at least one PrEP prescription in NYC increased from 2551 in 2014 to 35 742 in 2022. The overall age-adjusted HIV diagnosis rate steadily decreased from 48.1 per 100 000 in 2003 to 17.1 per 100 000 in 2022. After the rollout of PrEP, accelerated decreases were detected in some subpopulations including white men [2014-2019 annual percentage change (APC): -16.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) -22.7 to -10.0], Asian/Pacific Islander men (2016-2022 APC: -9.8%), men aged 20-29 years (2017-2020 APC: -9.4%) and 40 -49 years (2014-2020 APC: -12.2%), Latino/Hispanic people aged 40-49 years (2015-2020 APC: -13.0%), white people aged 20-29 years (2012-2022 APC: -11.4%) and 40-49 years (2014-2018 APC: -27.8%), and Asian/Pacific Islander people aged 20-29 years (2017-2022 APC: -13.0%). With a high coverage, PrEP can have a long-term impact in reducing HIV infections in a population, but if preexisting social determinants that contribute to racial, ethnic, and gender inequities are not well addressed, the implementation of PrEP can exacerbate these inequalities.