Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of acute myocardial infarction in Shandong Province

Abstract

Objective: To understand the characteristics and trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Shandong Province and to provide evidence for formulating prevention and control strategies. Methods: Data were derived from the AMI incidence reports of Shandong Province's Chronic Disease Surveillance Information Management System in 2012-2021. The crude and standardized incidence rates were used as indicators to describe the incidence level of AMI. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the trends in the incidence and age of onset over the years. The contribution of population aging to the increase in AMI incidence was assessed using the rate difference decomposition method. The incidence of AMI in each district (county) in Shandong Province was visualized using ArcGIS 10.8 software, and global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using DeoDa 1.12 software. Results: From 2012 to 2021, 198 233 cases of AMI were reported from 19 provincial monitoring sites in Shandong Province, of which 53.13% were males and 97.12% were ≥45 years old. The reported crude incidence increased from 90.12 per 100 000 in 2012 to 176.54 per 100 000 in 2021, with an average annual increase of 7.01% (Z=7.35, P<0.001). There was no significant upward trend in standardized incidence (Z=1.64, P=0.140), but the standardized incidence of male residents showed an increasing trend (Z=2.76, P=0.028). Before 2014, the reported crude incidence of males was similar to that of females, but after 2014, the reported crude incidence of males was continuously higher than that of females. However, males' standardized incidence was higher than females in all years. Both crude and standardized incidence rates were higher in rural residents than in urban areas. The median onset of AMI increased from 71.6 years old in 2012 to 73.5 years old in 2021. The median age of onset in males was lower than that in females in all years, and in most years, the median age of onset in urban residents was lower than that in rural residents. The incidence of AMI in males showed a trend in younger age groups. According to the seasonal decomposition, the incidence peak of AMI was in January, and the trough was in September. The contribution of aging population to the increase in crude incidence of AMI increased from 8.63% in 2013 to 52.58% in 2021. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of AMI presented an obvious spatial clustering distribution. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis found that the high-incidence areas (counties) were mainly concentrated in Liaocheng City and Dezhou City in the northwest region of Shandong Province and Heze City in the southwest. Conclusions: The incidence of AMI among residents in Shandong Province was rising, with spatial clustering and seasonal clustering characteristics. People aged 45 years and older, male residents, and rural residents were at high risk of developing AMI. There was a certain trend of younger age at onset among men. Targeted prevention and control measures should be taken for high-incidence seasons, high-risk groups, and high-incidence clustering areas in northwestern Shandong Province.