Trade Issues Research Articles

Expedition turned Invasion: The 1888 Sikkim Expedition through British, Indian and Chinese eyes

AbstractA fresh look at the 1888 Sikkim Expedition using both Chinese and English language sources yields very different conclusions from that of previous research on the subject. During the course of policymaking, the British Foreign Office and the British Government of India did not collaborate to devise a plan to invade Tibet; conversely, their aims differed and clashed frequently. During the years leading to war, the largest newspapers in British India gave plenty of coverage to the benefits of trade with Tibet, thus influencing British foreign policy and contributing indirectly to the outbreak of war. The Tibetan army was soundly defeated in the war, while the British troops suffered only light casualties. Although the Tibetan elites remained committed to the war, the lower classes of Tibetan society quickly grew weary of it. During the war, the British made much use of local spies and enjoyed an advantage in intelligence gathering, which contributed greatly to their victory. Finally, although the war was initially fought over trade issues, the demarcation of the Tibetan-Sikkim border replaced trade issues as the main point of contention during the subsequent peace negotiations. During the negotiations, Sheng Tai, the newly appointed Amban of Tibet, tried his best to defend China's interests.

Agriculture after a year with COVID‐19: Any long‐term implications for international trade policy?

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) initiated shocks to the Canadian agri‐food industry moving the sector away from its prepandemic equilibrium. Disequilibrium can mean, postshock, that sectors follow different paths of adjustment. The public and politicians appear to desire that economic activity returns to prepandemic norms—but this is far from assured. In the case of the Canadian agri‐food industry, the postshock path of adjustment appears to be returning to the preshock equilibrium, or near to it. This provides a familiar and stable anchor for those whose lives are otherwise considerably disrupted by the pandemic. The multilateral international trade system has long been in need of reform—reforms that would benefit Canada's agri‐food exporting sector. The pandemic has raised trade issues that require urgent action and some countries see this as an opportunity for reform. Canada has been at the forefront of this activity through the fostering, hosting, and chairing of the Ottawa Group of 13 World Trade Organization members that have been charged with bringing forward proposals for reform that will break the log jam in multilateral negotiations. The work of the Ottawa Group is examined and the likelihood of the initiative succeeding assessed.

An analysis of trends in international trade issues using big data-based news articles : From 2011 to 2020

본 연구는 한국언론진흥재단(Korea Press Foundation)의 뉴스 기사 분석 서비스인 빅카인즈(BIGKinds)를 활용하여 최근 10년간(2011～2020)의 무역 관련 주요 이슈 변화를 살펴보았다. 또한, 코로나19 이전(2019)과 이후(2020) 무역 관련 기사 건수와 이슈의 변화를 비교분석하여 시각화방법을 통해 제시하였다. 분석 결과, 최근 10년(2011～2020)간의 무역 분야에 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 주목받았던 사건은 한국과 세계 각국이 맺는 FTA와 관련된 이슈로 미국과 중국이 맺는 FTA가 특히 높은 관심을 받았다. 또한 코로나19 발생 이전(2019)과 이후(2020)의 무역 관련 이슈는 2019년 심화된 미·중 무역전쟁에 2020년의 코로나19와 홍콩 보안법 등의 사건이 복합적으로 작용하여 무역 관련 분야에 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 무역 분야는 어떠한 분야보다 정치, 경제, 사회 등의 다각적인 영향을 받고 있으며, 시기적 접근이 중요한 특징이 있다. 본 연구에서는 빅데이터 뉴스 기사를 중심으로 시기별로 무역 이슈와 사건을 반영한 트렌드를 분석하여 제시하였다. 이러한 접근 방법은 현재 중요도 높은 무역이슈를 제공하고, 코로나19 이후의 무역 관련 분야의 변화와 향후 주력해야 할 연구주제를 찾을 수 있는 탐색적 연구로서의 의미가 있다.

Biden, National Security, Law & Global Trade: Less Subterfuge & More Strategy in the New Era of Crisis

The US has entered a new era of crisis. President Biden has just been inaugurated. He faces historical challenges to return the US to global leadership. The primacy purpose of this article is to discuss national security and trade policy in the new Biden administration. First, I look at the historic and dubious claims made by the Trump administration in utilizing national security as a cover for protectionist trade actions, as well as at the federal court cases addressing these claims. I then assess the cases that have come before the WTO over the last two years, raising for first time the issue of the national security exception under GATT Article XXI. Finally, I conclude that President Biden’s overwhelming priority is to resurrect American democracy and alliances. But he will also need to address a broad range of trade issues and to restrict reliance on national security as a cover for populist and protectionist policies.

Pak-Iran Relations: Challenges and Expectations (2001-2012)

This paper endeavors to analyze the relations between Pakistan and Iran, during the ‎past ‎more ‎than seven decades, especially after 9/11. The relations between both countries ‎remained ‎normal and friendly, but with ‎a slight ‎divergence. ‎These relations became very critical ‎after 9/11 ‎due to the huge pressure of the US. There are many areas of divergence between these ‎two countries ‎such as the gas pipeline treaty, diplomatic support of Pakistan in the Iranian nuclear ‎program, trade, and ‎economic issues. In this paper, an attempt has been made to critically ‎highlight and discuss the ‎challenges and expectations emerging after the Islamic revolution and ‎during 2001 to 2012. The ‎core objectives of the study are to know about the nature of Pak-Iran ‎relations in the past, to ‎describe the nature of Pak-Iran relations from 2001-2012, to measure the ‎influence of world ‎powers on Pak-Iran relations to analyze the challenges facing both the ‎countries, etc. Suggestions ‎are also made to improve the relations between both Islamic republics’ countries in the region. Pakistan's and Iran’s concerns and interests are related to the new regional and ‎international atmosphere. New problems and new opportunities have been created for both ‎countries, affecting their bilateral and multilateral relations since the events of September 9, ‎‎2001. The two countries should devote more energy to increase their economic trade, strengthen ‎security cooperation, and identify practical ways to cope with the problems of the region.

The European Union and the political economy of enforcing international trade rules

The European Commission keeps track of foreign trade barriers through its Market Access Strategy. In this study, we examine some of the key political-economic conditions under which the European Union decides whether and how to address these trade issues. Drawing on an original dataset of (allegedly) illegal foreign trade barriers faced by European Union businesses, we show that industries dominated by a few large companies are more successful in gaining the support of the Commission to challenge these foreign trade barriers. Moreover, we find that the European Commission’s strategy depends on the economic power relationship with the trading partner: the European Union privileges negotiations when seeking to enforce international trade rules against economically weaker states, while it prefers to use litigation against stronger trading partners.

The Magnitude of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Compared to Industry Studies

In Malaysia, the illicit cigarette trade issue has been a priority for the government. The Malaysian government has enacted the necessary laws and regulations to combat the trade in illicit cigarettes. In order to discourage the expansion of these illegal activities, the government increased penalties in January 2014 by imposing fines of up to RM 10,0001 and jail terms of up to two years for those involved in the purchase or sale of illicit cigarettes. Later, former Customs director-general Datuk T. Subromaniam proposed to parliament in July 2017, a minimum fine of RM 100,0002 for selling illicit cigarettes and approved amendments to the Customs Act 1967 and Excise Act 1967 in January 2019. With the higher penalty in place, only 466.16 million sticks of illicit cigarettes were seized by the Royal Malaysia Customs Department (RMCD) in the year 2019 compared to 1,266.2 million sticks of illicit cigarettes seized in the year 2018. The stark difference in the numbers demonstrates the effectiveness of imposing higher penalties in reducing illicit trade activities. According to International Tobacco Control (ITC) Project’s Southeast Asia surveys, the average price of illicit cigarettes was about RM 1.62 per pack in 2004 and increased to only RM 4.23 between 2011 and 2012 (Liber et al., 2015). In May 2017, former Customs director-general Datuk T. Subromaniam told the New Straits Times that illicit cigarettes were sold between the price of RM 3.50 to RM 8.00 for a twenty-sticks cigarette pack. In contrast, the retail price of the most popular brand of legal cigarette is sold at RM 17, which is much higher than those illicit cigarettes. According to the ITC project (2012)’s survey-based study, by collecting used cigarette packs from self-reporting smokers in Malaysia, illicit packs of cigarettes often do not include pictorial health warnings. From the used cigarette packs, the market share of illicit cigarettes in Malaysia was estimated to be 19% in 2009 (ITC Project, 2012). However, this study was only published for the year 2009; therefore, the latest information and magnitude of illicit cigarette trade remains inadequate in Malaysia.

The Determinants of Illicit Cigarette Trade in Malaysia

Tobacco use is the leading cause of some preventable deaths and it imposes a heavy burden on countries. Realizing the threat that tobacco use inflicts on global public health, the World Health Organization (WHO) has implemented the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) since 2003. Apart from controlling the consumption of legal tobacco products, the existence of illicit tobacco products in the market is becoming a prevalent problem and a severe challenge to public health. The term “illicit trade” has been well-defined in the WHO FCTC (WHO, 2003) as any practice or conduct prohibited by law and which relates to production, shipment receipt, possession, distribution, sale, or purchase, including any practice or conduct intended to facilitate such activity. To mitigate the illicit trade problem, WHO FCTC established a Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (WHO, 2013) based on Article 15 and entered into force on 25 September 2018 (WHO, 2018). This protocol consists of a package of measures in combating illicit trade issues and the forfeiture and confiscation of proceeds acquired from the illicit tobacco trade. Several strategies were implemented by Malaysia to minimize illicit tobacco trade, and Malaysia is considering the idea of ratifying the current protocol (Hassan et al., 2019).

Import Penetration Effect of a Major Trade Partner, Korea, on Chinese Technological Development

This paper investigates the effect of import penetration as a cause of the acceleration of technological development. The trade intensity and engagement level have been a long-debated bilateral trade issue, especially when there is a regional supply chain. China is the base of a relatively big regional supply chain formed in East Asia. Korea is one of the key contributors to this unique trade structure. This paper aims to illustrate Korea’s import penetration as one of the key contributors to China’s industry-level technological development. This paper adapts Autor’s baseline investigation on the import penetration and follows the latest research of a Key Paper using different country and industry group. As a robustness check, we analyzed a periodic gap effect of the independent variable to reflect the time between the period when a relatively high competition in each industry has occurred and the time firms in each industry became more competitive. Regardless of the large size of Chinese economy, Korea’s import penetration over Chinese industry showed a significant influence. Although the influence vary differently over each industry, industries where Korea has relatively high competitiveness showed significant effect over technological development. Through the research of periodic gap effect, this paper proved the intuitive idea of the time gap existence. Apparently, the import penetration of t-1 showed stronger coefficient than t and diminishes after t-2. Existing studies in trade somewhat ignored such analysis between countries where relatively big difference in the scale of economy exist. This paper tried to describe that even there is a big difference in scale between sample countries, if there is a significant level of engagement and a global level competitiveness, small countries could affect the large ones. This paper used a time lag variable to analyze the different period of observation over variables.

Black–Litterman and Beyond: The Bayesian Paradigm in Investment Management

The Black–Litterman model is one of the most popular models in quantitative finance, with numerous theoretical and practical achievements. From the standpoint of investment theory, the Black–Litterman model allows seamless incorporation of Bayesian statistics into the portfolio optimization process. From a practical standpoint, it provides portfolio managers with a structured approach to express subjective views, thereby freeing their investment processes from a total reliance on backward-looking historical data. In this article, the authors provide an overview of the original Black–Litterman model and its various extensions and enhancements addressing issues in real-world trading and investment management. <b>TOPICS:</b>Statistical methods, portfolio construction, performance measurement <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ The authors provide an overview of the original Black–Litterman model and its various extensions and enhancements, addressing issues in real-world trading and investment management. ▪ Many important practical considerations in implementing the Black-Litterman model are discussed including choice of priors, view generation, and transaction costs. ▪ Particular emphasis is given to the extensions of the Black-Litterman model of significant practical relevance to today’s investors such as factor models, model misspecification, non-normality, and multiperiod portfolio optimization.

Migration, Trade and Investment: Towards a New Common Concern of Humankind

This article explores linkages between migration, international trade and investment from both economics and legal perspectives. The literature review reveals that the migration-investmenttrade triangle shows complex interdependencies, both in terms of substitution and complementarities, though its components remain largely separated both institutionally and legally. The 2018 Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration addresses a number of trade and investment-related issues. Recent treaty developments also encourage considering the three in a more integrated manner. The article suggests undertaking such an integration effort under the emerging principle of Common Concern of Humankind and sets out a number of preliminary ideas suggesting ways in which migration could be addressed in policies on international trade regulation and in the field of investment protection. Migration, trade, investment, Global Compact, Common Concern of Humankind

Biden, National Security and Global Trade: Less Subterfuge and More Strategy in the Era of Crisis.

The primacy purpose of this article is to discuss national security and trade policy of the new Biden administration. First, I will look at the historic and dubious claims of the Trump administration in utilizing national security as a cover for protectionist trade actions, as well as at the federal court cases addressing these claims. I will then assess the cases that have come before the WTO over the last two years, raising for first time the issue of the national security exception under GATT Article XXI. Finally, I conclude that President Biden’s overwhelming priority is to resurrect American democracy and alliances. But he will also need to address a broad range of trade issues and to restrict reliance on national security as a cover for populist and protectionist policies.

Will India's Disengaging Trade Policy Restrict It from Playing a Greater Global Role?

AbstractIndia's ambition of playing a prominent role in regional and global affairs has been particularly visible since the assumption of office by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2014. The ambition has resulted in India's external engagement, abandoning the posturing of non-alignment for a more proactive multi-alignment strategy. Its efforts to engage with major powers such as the US and China, as well as other global middle powers such as Japan, the UK, and Australia, have been positioned on rapid economic progress, enabled by one of the fastest rates of growth among major economies. Attempts to expand global strategic influence, a natural outcome of robust economic expansion, should have seen India pursuing an aggressive outward-oriented external trade policy for increasing its share in global trade. India, though, has shown a marked resistance to open trade, including being reluctant to engage in regional and bilateral trade negotiations. This paper examines the dichotomy between India's desire to play a prominent global role and its aversion to open trade policies. Attributing the inward-looking approach to lack of competitiveness of Indian industry, absence of domestic pro-trade constituencies, and discomfort in negotiating new-generation trade issues, the paper argues India's quest for greater global strategic influence might be adversely affected by its restrictive trade policies.

“Exit” vs. “Voice”: Global Sourcing, Multinational Production, and the China Trade Lobby

AbstractThis paper examines the influence of three different forms of global economic engagement on the lobbying behavior of US businesses with regard to trade relations with China: (a) input sourcing; (b) downstream export; and (c) vertical foreign direct investment. It will be hypothesized that firms involved in all three forms of global economic activities should have incentives to lobby over China-related trade issues in order to maintain unimpeded access to sources of supply or markets and to ensure the smooth operation of the entire supply chain. Going further, drawing on the exit-voice framework developed by Albert Hirschman (1972), it will be argued that compared to firms in those industries mainly involved in input sourcing from China, American multinational corporations that have verticalized their production should have even stronger incentives to engage in lobbying activities and “voice” their policy preferences due to their greater “sunk costs” and hence the higher cost of “exit.” Statistical analysis of the China trade-related lobbying activities of US firms between 2006 and 2016 lends substantial support to these conjectures.

Food and nutrition security under global trade: a relation-driven agent-based global trade model.

This paper addresses the highly relevant and timely issues of global trade and food security by developing an empirically grounded, relation-driven agent-based global trade model. Contrary to most price-driven trade models in the literature, the relation-driven agent-based global trade model focuses on the role of relational factors such as trust, familiarity, trade history and conflicts in countries' trade behaviour. Moreover, the global trade model is linked to a comprehensive nutrition formula to investigate the impact of trade on food and nutrition security, including macro and micronutrients. Preliminary results show that global trade improves the food and nutrition security of countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America. Trade also promotes a healthier and more balanced diet, as countries have access to an increased variety of food. The effect of trade in enhancing nutrition security, with an adequate supply of macro and micronutrients, is universal across nutrients and countries. As researchers call for a holistic and multifactorial approach to food security and climate change (Hammond and Dubé 2012 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 12 356–12 363. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0913003109)), the paper is one of the first to develop an integrated framework that consists of socio-economic, geopolitical, nutrition, environmental and agri-food systems to tackle these global challenges. Given the ongoing events of Brexit, the US–China trade war and the global COVID-19 pandemic, the paper will provide valuable insights on the role of trade in improving the food and nutrition security across countries.

On the issue of Russian textile products trade in China in the the second half of the 19th - earle 20th centuries

The article considered the issue of trade in Russian textiles on the territory of the Qing Empire during the second half of the 19th – early 20th century. Russian textiles were the main products in Russian exports to China during this period, but at the same time, they were significantly inferior to the sale of textiles from other countries on the Chinese market. This problem shows the general deficit of Russian trade in China. The reasons for the decline in sales are studied using the example of Russian trade in various regions of China. Interestingly, with their higher quality, Russian cloth and cotton fabrics lost competition to foreign textiles in the Chinese market. The reasons for the failure of trade were the high prices of the Russian products, as well as their unsuitability for the taste of the Chinese consumer. The high price was dictated mainly by the need for a long and expensive transit from Russia to China. In the same time, the level of development of Russian factories didn’t allow to reduce the cost of fabric production. This was added to the disinterest of Russian trade circles in the Chinese market, unwillingness to interest a Chinese buyer in their product. At the beginning of the 20th century when the internal and external economic characteristics of China changed, the development of Russian exports became unpromising in comparison with the concession policy on Chinese territory. The basis for the research was largely pre-revolutionary works and materials of the Central archives of Russia.

XVII əsr Azərbaycan şəhərlərinin ticarət həyatı Yan Streysin məlumatlarında

Many cities of Azerbaijan, which are important centers of trade and trade, have not lost their significance in international trade for centuries. Silk-cheese, various silky fabrics, tastefully executed by our masters of elegant decorations, textiles, world-famous carpets, etc. spread the glory of Azerbaijan to the whole world. In the XVII century, many European countries tried to establish trade relations with Azerbaijan. The European states sent messages to the rulers of Azerbaijan, tried to trade in Azerbaijan with trade privileges, fought with each other for dominance in the eastern markets. The Netherlands also joined this fight. Well-known Dutch seafarer and traveler Jana Streis wrote a book in the book "Three Journeys" in which she wrote about the trade life of separate Azerbaijani cities. Although he was more concerned with the issues of trade, he also made some notes on the traditions, holidays and the existence of the Azerbaijani people. Jan Streis provided interesting information about the trade life of Irevan, Derbent, Shemakhi, Ardebil, Isfahan, Zenjan, Sultani and other cities.

ИНВЕСТИЦИОННАЯ ПОЛИТИКА ПОЛЬШИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ ТОРГОВО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА С РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИЕЙ

The article reveals the evolution of Poland’s investment policy and the peculiarities of the formation of the country’s legal system for the protection of foreign investments. The article describes the current stage of development of the Polish economy, reveals the role of foreign investment in the modernization of the national economy. The article discusses the controversial issue of the role of the European Union subsidies in the transformation of the Polish economy. The issues of trade, economic and investment cooperation between Russia and Poland are analyzed separately and it is concluded that the anti-Russian foreign policy of Poland hinders the development of the trade, economic and investment cooperation between the two countries.

African continental free trade area: Is there a trade potential for Côte d’Ivoire?

Many studies present the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as one of Africa’s most new trade issues. Previous assessments show that this AfCFTA will catalyze Intra African trade. The cum...

Biden’s China policy

Donald Trump upended America’s long-standing, post-Cold war bipartisan China consensus. Initially focused on trade issues, particularly trade imbalances, Administration policy moved toward a more confrontational approach encompassing major security initiatives in the neighborhood. Focusing on the first year of Joe Biden’s China policy, this article seeks to demonstrate the broad continuity between the Biden and Trump Administrations approach to Beijing.