Agricultural irrigation areas are vital for ensuring food security under climate change conditions with extensive water and energy consumption, which will inevitably exert pressures on ecosystem especially in arid and semi-arid areas normally with higher ecosystem degradation risk. The key to realize sustainable development lies in a quantitative analysis framework for analyzing impacts of climate change on water-food-energy-ecosystem nexus. Climate change exacerbates these challenges by impacting food production, water resources utilization, energy consumption for water supply and ecological conditions in irrigation areas. In this work, a quantitative analysis framework to analyze the trade-offs and synergies among various scenarios within the water-food-energy-ecosystem nexus in irrigation area was proposed. Two climate models (BCC and MIR1) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were employed to quantitatively evaluate different sustainable development strategies among water, food, energy and ecosystem sectors from five key aspects: irrigation demand, food production, groundwater supply for irrigation, ecological base flow and irrigation water shortage. The results show that the sustainability index (SI) of combined management scenarios CC1-IM, CC5-IM, CC1-WSI and CC5-WSI could be 12% to 25% higher than that of the corresponding single management scenario. Among the four climate change and management scenarios, the SI of the integrated measures scenario (CC1-IM, CC5-IM) was the highest, with values of 1.39 and 1.12 respectively. This work highlights the pomising results of the integrated measures scenario in alleviating food production challenges, protecting ecological base flows, reducing groundwater extraction, alleviating irrigation water shortages and improving water supply efficiency when dealing with climate change challenges.
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