Multi-layer multi-objective cooperative regulation of agricultural water resources in large agricultural irrigation areas based on runoff prediction

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Reasonable and optimal allocation of irrigation water is of great significance to improve agricultural water use efficiency for large-area agricultural irrigation systems. To solve the problems of large agricultural production scale, unreasonable water distribution structure, many rivers in the region and large changes in runoff volume, this paper takes the Sanjiang Plain in Heilongjiang Province, China, as the research object to develop an efficient and accurate water optimal allocation method. First, the runoff volume of many rivers in the region was obtained through the ARIMA-SVM-BP combined runoff prediction model, based on which a ‘regional-irrigation district-farmland’ multilayer multiobjective water resource cooperative deployment system model was established to achieve the synergistic enhancement of farmers' interests and the economic-social and regional economic-engineering volume of the irrigation district. The joint optimization method, fuzzy mathematical planning, and large system decomposition-coordination coupling were used to solve the multilayer multiobjective regulation system. The results show that the optimal agricultural water allocation volumes for the current year (2020) and the forecast year (2025) of 37 irrigation districts in the Sanjiang Plain are 3.61 × 109 m3 and 3.89 × 109 m3, saving 17% of water and resulting in a 24% decrease in the agricultural water use ratio compared with the actual situation, respectively. In the process of repeated coordination of the large system, the water distribution error is controlled within 1%. The fairness of water distribution in the multilayer system was improved by 34.7% while obtaining high economic benefits. The method proposed in this study helps the coordinated regulation and planning of multiple water sources in large agricultural irrigation areas, improves the ability of water distribution in irrigation areas to cope with different levels of incoming water, and promotes the sustainable development of regional irrigated agriculture.