Impacts of land use/land cover and climate change on landscape sensitivity in Tunca River sub-basin: Use in spatial planning and sectoral decision processes

Abstract

Managing landscape change is increasingly challenging due to rapid anthropogenic shifts. A delicate balance must be struck between the environment and change to ensure landscapes can withstand these impacts. This study conducted in the Tunca River sub-basin of Edirne province, aims to assess landscape sensitivity by examining the influence of land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change on landscape function processes. For this purpose, a methodology was developed based on ecosystem services to determine landscape sensitivity. The results revealed a LULC transformation that could lead to a 60% reduction in forest areas and a 5% and 20% increase in urban and irrigated agricultural areas, respectively. Water and erosion emerged as the most affected landscape function processes. Future scenarios from 2050 to 2070 indicate noteworthy changes in landscape sensitivity, showing an increase in sensitivity in the upper regions of the basin. The study identified high sensitivity in forested areas, moderate sensitivity in agricultural zones, and low sensitivity in micro-basins near residential areas. Protection and improvement strategies are recommended for areas with high and moderate sensitivity, while use-oriented strategies are suggested for those with low sensitivity. This study also establishes a scientific foundation for guiding the protection and management of ecologically sensitive basin areas, offering insights into the effects of landscape change processes at the micro-basin level in connection with climate change models.