Abstract
The observation-based analysis of drought development in the Chorotega region showed that, despite the area being relatively small, agricultural drought exhibits high spatial variability across the region. However, the lack of net radiation data hinders the capacity to provide reliable estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), affecting the assessment of drought occurrence, since its propagation across the hydrological system is very sensitive to the ET estimation method. The coarse resolution of satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products and the lack of information on irrigation in agricultural areas limits the ability to properly establish a relationship between drought and vegetation response. Based on the observations, the most prominent precipitation deficits occur between September and October (–100 mm on average), showing that changes in the large-scale circulation are responsible for the impact of severe drought in the region. In agreement with previous studies, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main modulator of the drought severity, with the warm ENSO phase favoring an enhanced drought development and its influence being more significant between August and October, displaying correlations greater than –0.6. The climate change projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest the intensification of drought events in the Chorotega region at mid-century, with the Tempisque-Bebedero basin being the most affected area in terms of precipitation decrease and warming. The projected scenarios correspond to an increase of 1 oC for mean temperature and more of 2 oC for minimum and maximum temperature in the 2050 horizon, as well as a decrease of 400 to 800 mm for annual precipitation under both RCPs.
Published Version (
Free)
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
