Network Investment Research Articles

Improving the potential of fifth-generation district heating and cooling networks through robust design and operational optimization under future energy market and demand uncertainties

Network investments and projected energy prices greatly impact the financial viability and environmental impact of fifth-generation district heating and cooling (5GDHC) networks. Compared to the previous generation, the upfront investment costs in 5GDHC networks are relatively high due to the decentralized energy demand and supply of the participating prosumers. The transition to 5GDHC is also hindered by uncertain energy markets and the fluctuating energy demands of the prosumers. It makes investors hesitant to commit, even for promising business cases. In this work, a framework is presented to assess the economic and environmental performance of a 5GDHC business case, based on a multi-objective robust optimization algorithm (MO-RDO), to identify the optimal trade-offs between environmental and economic designs. The proposed methodology consists of four steps. In the first two steps, a specific business case is modeled, and techno-economic and environmental performances are analyzed against uncertain energy markets. In the third step, the techno-economic and environmental indicator responses are used to develop a data-driven machine-learning model. This model offers better computational efficiency than a high-fidelity nonlinear model and assesses the most influential parameters driving economic and environmental performance via a global sensitivity analysis. This aids in refining the multi-objective robust design optimization (MO-RDO) framework by pinpointing key design variables and objectives amid data uncertainties. Additionally, the formulated MO-RDO provides a mix of environmentally and economically optimal network designs and operational parameters and highlights the trade-offs between them. The designs and trade-offs are evaluated using financial metrics like net present value (NPV), return on investment, and discounted payback period. These metrics are calculated over the project life, considering the initial investment and net savings. For the considered case, the environmental design has a 10% higher investment cost compared to the economically optimal solution but reduces total emissions (TE) by 13% and improves operational cost savings, which is crucial for better financial indicators. The proposed framework aligns with the EU transition plan to incorporate waste energy sources and decarbonization paths, estimating only a 3% increase in NPV as a risk for the environmentally optimal solution on a financial scale.

Quantifying the economic value of a national hydrometric network for households

This study reports the results of a Choice Experiment to quantify households’ willingness-to-pay for river gauging programmes in Scotland. The hydrometric network is operated and maintained by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA), Scotland’s principal environment regulator, a non-department public body of the Scottish Government. Results from mixed logit and latent class modelling show that most households (‘Hydrometric Maximisers’ − around 70 %) have significant, positive willingness-to-pay values for river gauging programmes, but a minority (‘Hydrometric Satisficers’ − around 30 %) do not view this as a major public policy priority. On average, hydrometric data collection delivers non-market benefits worth £84,625,562 to the Scottish economy, with a minimum economic Benefit-to-Cost ratio of 25:1. This is in addition to the infrastructure value and any private returns made by commercial users of the data. The findings demonstrate that traditional approaches to assessing the benefits of hydrometric networks often underestimate their value. The research also highlights the importance of public information campaigns and household engagement initiatives to increase awareness of hydro-meteorological services, and to develop the business case more fully for public investment in environmental observation networks.

Learning from COVID-19: strengthening Australia's research capacity through preparedness and collaboration.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted that preparedness for and responsiveness to pandemics requires public health platforms and processes which are nimble and evidence-based and a research ecosystem which is rapidly responsive to the evolving needs of society and decision-makers. The national BEAT COVID-19 research consortium was funded in 2020 by the Snow Medical Research Foundation (Snow Medical). Its Expert Advisory Committee met with the consortium post-pandemic to summarise the research undertaken and to consider lessons learned through the research response to COVID-19 in Australia. The panel observed that philanthropy offered an important 'kick-starter' funding mechanism for urgent research, which facilitated leveraging of additional funds. It further agreed that research requirements for strengthening Australia's pandemic preparedness and response include: (1) development of a national health and medical research strategy for pandemic research; (2) long-term investment in pre-established research partnerships and networks; (3) systemic procedural improvements, e.g. in ethics, governance and resource allocation; (4) responsive funding mechanisms including philanthropy; and (5) integration of research outputs into health practice and decision-making, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Mandated MVNO access and MNO investment in mobile network markets: evidence from Germany and Spain

Mandated MVNO access and MNO investment in mobile network markets: evidence from Germany and Spain

Multi-Stage Rolling Grid Expansion Planning for Distribution Networks Considering Conditional Value at Risk

Existing single-stage planning and multi-stage non-rolling planning methods for distribution networks have problems such as low equipment utilization efficiency and poor investment benefits. In order to solve the above problems, this paper firstly proposes a multi-stage rolling planning method for distribution networks based on analyzing the limitations of the existing planning methods, which divides the planning cycle of the distribution network into multiple planning stages, and makes rolling amendments to the planning scheme of each stage according to the latest information during the planning cycle. Then, a multi-stage rolling planning model of distribution network taking into account conditional value at risk is established with the objective of minimizing the total investment and operation cost of the distribution network. On the one hand, the users’ electricity bill is taken into account in the objective function, and the necessity of this part of the benefits is demonstrated. On the other hand, the conditional value at risk is used to quantify the uncertainty of the operation cost in the process of the expansion planning of the distribution network, which reduces the operation cost risk of the distribution network. Next, this paper uses the rainflow counting method to characterize the capacity decay characteristics of energy storage in the distribution network, and proposes an iterative solution framework that considers energy storage capacity decay to solve the proposed model. Finally, the proposed method is applied to an 18-node distribution network planning case. This confirms that the multi-stage rolling planning method could improve the investment benefits and reduce the investment cost by approximately 27.27%. Besides, it will increase the total cost by approximately 2750 USD in the case if the users’ electricity bill is not taken into account. And the maximum capacity of energy storage may decay to 87.6% of the initial capacity or even lower during operation, which may cause the line current to exceed the limit if it is not taken into account.

Comparative Analysis of Conventional (Financial, Network) and Optimized Mixed Integer Linear Programming Scenarios for Telecom Network Investment Decision Making

The telecommunications industry in Indonesia faces numerous challenges in allocating resources for network development, including network complexity, technological changes, market competition, and customer expectations. To achieve optimal financial outcomes and customer satisfaction, investments must be well-managed, well-placed, and well-executed. This study analyses network investment portfolio selection outcomes at Telkomsel; Indonesia's largest cellular operator, comparing conventional scenarios (financial and network) with an optimized scenario using Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP). The research evaluates these scenarios based on total portfolio score, incremental revenue, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Financial indicators such as net present value (NPV), IRR, EBIT margin, incremental revenue, and network indicators such as capacity and customer satisfaction (download/upload throughput, latency, packet loss, jitter) assess investment feasibility. The MILP optimization scenario strongly correlates with incremental revenue, NPV, and IRR, indicating higher financial performance. Sites selected in the MILP optimization outperscenario formed others in total score (22% better than the financial scenario, 63% better than the network scenario), incremental revenue (3.5% better than the financial scenario, 90.2% better than the network scenario), and portfolio IRR (4% better than the financial scenario, 70% better than the network scenario).

Estimating electrical distribution network length and capital investment needs from real-world topologies and land cover data

Green technologies such as solar photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles play a fundamental role in the global decarbonization effort. To enable their diffusion, electricity distribution networks need to be upgraded, which is a complex and expensive endeavor. However, utilities face budgetary constraints and seek to reduce planning uncertainty. Here, we utilize 7,527 real-world grid topologies and land cover data to develop a model for estimating conductor and capital investment needs for electrifying a specific area. Our work yields three main contributions: First, we demonstrate the important role of land cover data in power line planning. We show that, for medium and large networks, distinct methodologies are needed due to the significant impact of land cover, particularly buildings and roads. Second, we introduce a parsimonious model of power line length and identify the number of consumption points as the primary determinant of network investment costs. Third, we present a cost assessment model tailored for regulators and investors, offering valuable insights for network planning, policymaking, due diligence, and research. Our work highlights the importance of combining land cover data and operations research algorithms in distribution network planning and provides policymakers with a tool to ensure cost-efficient network expansion.

Start doing the right thing: Indicators for socially responsible start-ups and investors

This paper explores the gap in the literature on social responsibility guidance for start-ups and start-up investors. It begins by evaluating research conducted in two different fields (namely, socially responsible investment (SRI) and responsible research and innovation (RRI)) and how they can guide social responsibility in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) start-ups. To do this, we evaluate an industry-standard SRI catalogue of metrics - the Global Impact Investing Network's (GIIN) Impact Reporting and Investment Standards (IRIS+) - and indicators from 12 EC-funded RRI projects. Based on this analysis, we propose a framework of 24 indicators to assess the social responsibility of start-ups and investors. The purpose of our framework is twofold: firstly, to provide clear guidance for start-ups aiming to implement socially responsible behaviours, and secondly, to provide start-up investors with criteria to identify if start-ups are socially responsible. While the indicators are phrased in a prescriptive way for start-ups, they can also be used by investors to identify if start-ups are implementing the indicators in practice.

Exploring the pre-disaster evacuation network design problem under five traffic equilibrium models

This paper explores modeling approaches for the pre-disaster Evacuation Network Design Problem (ENDP) considering different flow equilibrium conditions. We combine this problem with the modeling idea of Continuous Network Design Problem (CNDP), which we call Continuous Evacuation Network Design Problem (CENDP) in this paper. We develop five CENDP models, which are under the consideration of User Equilibrium (UE), Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE), Boundedly Rational User Equilibrium (BRUE), and Non-equilibrium (NONE), among which we develop two types of models based on BRUE. The modeling is mainly to consider the single objective of optimizing the total evacuation time, and then to provide reasonable road expansion solutions under certain budget constraints and different equilibrium conditions. Our main motivation for developing models is to introduce various types of equilibrium conditions into models and design algorithms to solve these problems while mining for key insights. We design the corresponding five heuristic algorithms to solve models and verify the applicability of the models and algorithms by two test networks (Nguyen-Dupuis network and Sioux-Falls network). We demonstrate whether evacuation flow equilibrium need or not need to be considered in the CENDP, the applicability of different equilibrium conditions, and the correlation between the total evacuation time, the network investment cost, and the network congestion degree. Additionally, we conduct model and algorithm tests on 40 instance networks, dividing them into medium-sized networks (20 instances) and large-sized networks (20 instances). Not only do we further validate the insights obtained from the test networks, but we also expand upon them. Specifically, the main findings of this study are as follows: (1) We demonstrate that considering evacuation flow equilibrium in CENDP is essential to reduce total evacuation time, construction costs, and mitigate congestion. (2) While increased investment in road construction can meet evacuation time requirements, it is crucial to make informed decisions, as investment alone does not directly reduce total evacuation time and congestion. (3) Optimizing road evacuation time is more effective than merely increasing road capacity for reducing total evacuation time and mitigating congestion. (4) From the perspectives of total evacuation time, investment cost, and network congestion degree, the CENDP model considering user equilibrium performs better in medium-sized networks, while the CENDP model considering stochastic user equilibrium performs better in large-sized networks. Conversely, the CENDP model that does not consider flow equilibrium performs the worst across all above three metrics. Based on this, we also provide recommendations on which model to choose for different metrics. In summary, this study not only reveals the importance of different flow equilibrium conditions in evacuation network design but also provides valuable strategic recommendations for practical applications to optimize evacuation effectiveness and resource allocation.

Collaborative operation strategy of multiple microenergy grids considering demand‐side energy‐sharing behavior

AbstractIn recent years, as the energy market continues to change, an emerging business model is gradually emerging as an energy provider (EP). The participation of EP as an independent entity in the distribution network investment model not only helps realize a win–win situation for multiple stakeholders but also promotes the innovation and sustainable development of the energy industry. However, in the energy system, EPs, grids, microenergy grids (MEGs), and shared energy storage service providers usually belong to different stakeholders, and their respective pursuit of profit maximization can easily lead to uncontrolled competition, which greatly reduces market efficiency. To address the varying ownership structures within the energy system, a refined bilevel coordinated optimization operation model is introduced, rooted in the master–slave game theory. In this model, the EP assumes the role of the master, while the MEG operator and the shared energy storage operator (SESO) act as slaves. A peer‐to‐peer energy‐sharing mechanism between MEGs and an energy trading mechanism between MEGs and shared energy storage is used to further increase the local consumption rate of new energy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method not only boosts the revenues of an EP, SESO, and MEG operators but also effectively accounts for the MEG's energy storage needs and SESOs' profitability.

Can digital technology promote market participation among smallholder farmers?

Abstract Digital technology holds significant potential for enhancing business efficiency in agricultural marketing. However, empirical research on the use of digital technology among smallholder farmers engaged in staple crop marketing in Sub-Saharan Africa remains limited. Recognizing the pivotal role of digital technology in agriculture, this study aims to analyse and synthesize existing knowledge regarding the impact of mobile phones on market participation among smallholder farmers. Through a comprehensive analysis, we seek to provide a robust understanding that can inform policies and programs aimed at enhancing smallholder market integration. To achieve this objective, we collected cross-sectional data from 360 farmers in southeast Nigeria and implemented a double hurdle model to analyse market participation decisions and the extent of farmers’ involvement in staple crop markets. In addition to traditional econometric methods, we employed propensity score matching to further investigate the impact of mobile phone ownership on market participation. Our analysis revealed that ICT tools, particularly mobile phones and radios, significantly influence both the decision and intensity of market participation among smallholder farmers. Specifically, mobile phones were found to play a crucial role in facilitating access to market pricing information and disseminating knowledge on improved production methods. Given the volatility of farm prices, the timely dissemination of market information through mobile phones is essential for farmers to make informed decisions. With a high percentage of mobile phone ownership and substantial investments in mobile networks in Nigeria, the digitalization of extension services and marketing information delivery systems could catalyse rapid improvements in agribusiness and marketing. This shift towards digital platforms has the potential to address information asymmetry, particularly among smallholder farmers, thereby fostering greater market integration and economic empowerment within rural communities.

Optimal planning and partitioning of multiple distribution Micro-Grids based on reliability evaluation.

Power system researcher have turned to Micro-Grids (MG) for higher reliability, greater flexibility, lower operating costs and losses, and lower CO2 emissions at the distribution system. This paper presents a single-level stochastic optimization framework for planning and partitioning of a distribution system including Multiple Micro-Grids (MMGs). The main objective is to minimize the total cost of the system including investment, operation, total losses and reliability costs of the distribution network. The proposed model takes into account the viewpoints of MG owners and distribution system operators, simultaneously. The voltage stability index is introduced to identify the optimal site of MG investment. To deal with uncertainties caused by renewable generations, the Firefly Algorithm (FA) and probability-tree method is used to create various operation scenarios of Photo-Voltaic (PVs) and Wind Turbines (WTs). This model is solved through the genetic algorithm in MATLAB, and to evaluate its effectiveness, numerical studies have been carried out on the experimental IEEE distribution network with four specified locations for investing MGs and seven Tie Switches (TS) for network partitioning. Simulation results reveal that optimal locations for MG investment are determined in such a way all MGs connect to the buses near the beginning of the feeder and as a result, load point reliability is improved, total active power losses are reduced, and the energy program becomes more optimized.

Representing Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Network Investments within Power System Planning Models

Carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) is frequently identified as a potential component to achieving a decarbonized power system at least cost; however, power system models frequently lack detailed representation of CO2 transportation, injection, and storage (CTS) infrastructure. In this paper, we present a novel approach to explicitly represent CO2 storage potential and CTS infrastructure costs and constraints within a continental-scale power system capacity expansion model. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the future costs and performance of CTS components and carbon capture technologies. We find that the quantity of CO2 captured within the power sector is relatively insensitive to the range of CTS costs explored, suggesting that the cost of CO2 capture retrofits is a more important driver of CCS implementation than the costs of transportation and storage. Finally, we demonstrate that storage and injection costs account for the predominant share of total costs associated with CTS investment and operation, suggesting that pipeline infrastructure costs have limited influence on the competitiveness of CCS.

Strategic behavior in TSO-DSO coordinated flexibility markets: A Nash equilibrium and efficiency analysis

This paper investigates the way in which the design of a TSO-DSO coordinated flexibility market can enable strategic behavior by flexibility service providers (FSPs). Multiple flexibility market models are considered for the procurement of flexibility services by transmission and distribution system operators, namely: a common (joint) market, a fragmented market, and a sequential multi-level market. Considering these market models, three non-cooperative games are introduced to investigate the strategic bidding and interaction between FSPs therein. Detailed conclusions are then drawn on the existence and uniqueness of Nash Equilibria (NEs) in the developed games, including derivations of closed-form expressions of the resulting NEs and corresponding price-of-anarchy, capturing the FSPs’ strategic bidding impact on the markets’ efficiency. The analysis considers – first in a duopoly setting, then with multiple players – three different use cases representing when: (1) a sufficient flexible capacity exists (sufficient flexibility offered from the FSPs and adequate interconnection/grid capacity between systems); (2) participants have a scarce flexibility capacity; and (3) a restrictive interface capacity exists between the systems. A case study considering an interconnected transmission–distribution system and multiple FSPs corroborates the analytical findings. The obtained results show that market participants have incentives to set bid prices greater than their marginal costs, thus decreasing the markets’ efficiency. This aspect is shown to be more pronounced when the available flexible capacity is limited, a restrictive line limit is present, or when the market is fragmented, thus supporting the need for additional network investments and the creation of joint flexibility market formats.

Merchant investment in electricity transmission networks

Many electricity economists have long hoped that it might be possible to establish competition, not just in providing generation and load assets, but also in the provision of the transmission network itself. Attempts in the 1990s to achieve so-called merchant transmission investment using conventional Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) proved disappointing. We develop an extension of screening-curve models to include the optimal choice of both generation and transmission. Such models, although stylised, provide valuable insight into the long-run co-optimisation of generation and transmission. We propose new regulatory and merchant transmission investment mechanisms that achieve the socially optimal investment.

Investments in Electricity Distribution Grids: Strategic versus Incremental Planning

The ongoing electrification of the transport sector is expected to cause an increase in electricity demand and, therefore, trigger significant network investments to accommodate it. This paper focuses on investment decision-making for electricity distribution grids and specifically on the strategic and incremental investment network planning approaches. In particular, the former involves network planning with the consideration of a long-term multi-stage study horizon, as opposed to a shorter–term view of the future that applies to the latter case. An investment analysis that is carried out underlines the economic savings generated from adopting a strategic investment perspective over an incremental one. These economic savings are achieved from the fact that the associated fixed investment costs are incurred only once in the horizon under strategic planning. On the other hand, incremental planning involves a series of network reinforcement decisions, thereby incurring the fixed cost multiple times. In addition, sensitivity analyses that are carried out capture the effect of key parameters, such as investment cost, discount rate and investment delay, on the generated economic savings.

Optimizing large-scale hydrogen storage: A novel hybrid genetic algorithm approach for efficient pipeline network design

As hydrogen production technologies continue to advance, efficient and high-capacity hydrogen storage solutions become increasingly crucial. To address the complex optimization challenges in the design of large-scale hydrogen storage pipeline networks, the study introduces a mixed integer nonlinear optimization model inspired by hydrogen pipeline design optimization theory. The model not only focuses on optimizing network design parameters but also aims to minimize investment costs. To achieve this, the study proposes an innovative hybrid genetic algorithm that combines the Modified Feasible Directions Method (MFDM) and Genetic Algorithm Theory (GAT), specifically targeting the optimization of pipeline diameter's discrete distribution challenges. Comparative analyses with SUMT and GA algorithms demonstrate the superiority of the approach. In continuous space, the algorithm achieves a lower convergence cost of 232.4437 × 104 Yuan, while in discrete space, the cost further decreases to 212.1636 × 104 Yuan. Additionally, the study delves into the sensitivity of the HGA-MFDM algorithm to ambient temperature and wellhead temperature in hydrogen storage facilities. The analysis reveals that wellhead temperature has a more significant impact on pipeline network investment, whereas ambient temperature exhibits a more pronounced effect on iteration curves. The findings provide valuable insights for the precise adjustment and optimization of hydrogen storage pipeline networks in practical applications.

On supply and network investment in power systems

On supply and network investment in power systems

Deep Learning-Based Stock Market Prediction and Investment Model for Financial Management

This study explores the potential application of deep learning techniques in stock market prediction and investment decision-making. The authors used multi-temporary stock data (MTS) for effective multi-scale feature extraction in reverse cross attention (RCA), combined with improved whale optimization algorithm (IWOA) to select the optimal parameters for the bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) and constructed an innovative RCA-BiLSTM stock intelligent trend prediction model. At the same time, a complete RCA-BiLSTM-DQN stock intelligent prediction and investment model was established by combining the deep Q network (DQN) investment strategy. The research results indicate that the model has excellent sequence modeling and decision learning capabilities, which can capture the nonlinear characteristics and complex correlations of the market and provide more accurate prediction results. It can continuously improve the robustness and stability of the model through adaptive learning and automatic optimization.

Assessing the impact of renewable energy penetration and geographical allocation on transmission expansion cost: A comparative analysis of two large-scale systems

Ambitious renewable energy development plans require an efficient electricity grid connection of massive generation capacity. Significant transmission network investments are considered necessary to support the energy transition. This paper analyses the transmission grid reinforcement requirements of two large-scale electricity systems with notably different geographical distributions of renewable resource availability and load density. The results indicate that optimal transmission expansion accounts for less than 10% of total annualised system investment (generation capacity + transmission grid). This is true even in transmission systems with significant existing bottlenecks. The study includes a sensitivity analysis of the location of renewable energy source (RES) capacity. The sensitivities examine the impact of varying the concentration of RES in resource-rich areas, as well as the proportion of RES capacity connected at the distribution level. Both sensitivities are evaluated over a common base case scenario. The results show that a higher concentration of RES capacity in resource-rich network zones can more than double the optimal transmission expansion requirements. In contrast, the implementation of distributed generation (DG) leads to the allocation of generation closer to demand centres, resulting in transmission grid savings of up to 30%. These effects are more pronounced in networks where RES capacity is located further away from major demand centres. This is because existing bottlenecks are exacerbated by higher RES concentration and relieved as the share of DG increases.