Multi-Stage Rolling Grid Expansion Planning for Distribution Networks Considering Conditional Value at Risk

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Existing single-stage planning and multi-stage non-rolling planning methods for distribution networks have problems such as low equipment utilization efficiency and poor investment benefits. In order to solve the above problems, this paper firstly proposes a multi-stage rolling planning method for distribution networks based on analyzing the limitations of the existing planning methods, which divides the planning cycle of the distribution network into multiple planning stages, and makes rolling amendments to the planning scheme of each stage according to the latest information during the planning cycle. Then, a multi-stage rolling planning model of distribution network taking into account conditional value at risk is established with the objective of minimizing the total investment and operation cost of the distribution network. On the one hand, the users’ electricity bill is taken into account in the objective function, and the necessity of this part of the benefits is demonstrated. On the other hand, the conditional value at risk is used to quantify the uncertainty of the operation cost in the process of the expansion planning of the distribution network, which reduces the operation cost risk of the distribution network. Next, this paper uses the rainflow counting method to characterize the capacity decay characteristics of energy storage in the distribution network, and proposes an iterative solution framework that considers energy storage capacity decay to solve the proposed model. Finally, the proposed method is applied to an 18-node distribution network planning case. This confirms that the multi-stage rolling planning method could improve the investment benefits and reduce the investment cost by approximately 27.27%. Besides, it will increase the total cost by approximately 2750 USD in the case if the users’ electricity bill is not taken into account. And the maximum capacity of energy storage may decay to 87.6% of the initial capacity or even lower during operation, which may cause the line current to exceed the limit if it is not taken into account.