Dry Air Intrusion Research Articles

Initiation of prefrontal convection within a Northeast China cold vortex: The roles of elevated front and dry air intrusion

AbstractConvective initiation ahead of a surface cold front within the Northeast China cold vortex of June 1, 2021, is investigated using observations and a convection‐permitting simulation. The initiation of the convection is elevated without identifiable surface mesoscale forcing. Air feeding the initial convective cells originates from at least 1 km above the ground where parcel‐based convective available potential energy is sufficiently large. An elevated front with large equivalent potential temperature gradient and flow convergence across is primarily responsible for the initiation of elevated convection and later organization into a deep convective line. The elevated front is similar to the upper cold front within extratropic cyclones studied elsewhere, but its altitude is lower in this case. Backward‐trajectory analysis of air parcels on the cold side of the elevated front shows that dry air intrusion reinforces the elevated front by increasing the equivalent potential temperature gradient and moment convergence across the front. The convergence forcing combined with access to convective unstable air at the leading edge of the westerly flows east of the elevated front causes the initiation of convection. The development and spreading of a surface cold pool help push the convective line eastward away from the surface cold front located to the west. Orographic gravity waves provide additional forcing so that convection cells are initiated first at the upward branches of the gravity waves, but the overall organization of initial cells into a solid convective line is controlled mainly by mesoscale structures associated with the elevated front.

Climate variability and hydrology impacts in east Africa’s Rwenzori Mountains

Study regionThe eastern flank of the 4 km Rwenzori Mountains and the Mobuku catchment 0.25–0.4 N, 29.85–30.1E are the geographic area for detailed analysis. Research focusHydro-climate variability is studied using high resolution satellite- and model- assimilated products in the period 1980–2023. The Mobuku catchment receives rainfall of 3–6 mm/day which generates an eastward discharge of 100 m3/s that declines rapidly downstream, thereby limiting hydro-power availability. New insightsLong-term trends in cloud fraction and potential evaporation reveal a tendency for drying associated with increasing easterly winds, subsidence near the mountain top, and warming of +.04 C/year that is melting glaciers. These constrain runoff on the eastern flank of the Rwenzori Mountains. Low river flows in Dec-Mar correspond with dry air intrusions from the northeast. High river flows in Jul-Nov are modulated by sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean that oscillate east-west at ∼3 year interval. Improved understanding of climate variability will contribute to better management of Uganda’s hydro-power resources.

Top-Down Phenomenon Observed in the Outer Rainbands of Typhoon Maysak (2020): Insights from the Comparative Analysis of Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics with a Typical Precipitation Event in Northeast China

Abstract Cloud and precipitation microphysics in tropical cyclones (TCs) moving toward Northeast China may exhibit significant distinctions compared with the typical precipitation of this region. In this study, observations from ground-based particle size velocity (Parsivel) disdrometers in Liaoning Province, China, and cloud property data from the Himawari geostationary satellite were utilized to analyze the raindrop size distribution (DSD) characteristics and cloud vertical evolution associated with the outer rainbands of Typhoon Maysak (2020). A comparative analysis was conducted with a typical precipitation event in Northeast China induced by a cold vortex (cold-core low). Our findings reveal distinctive DSD characteristics related to the TC, where medium-sized raindrops dominate, with a smaller diameter but higher concentration in the TC case compared to the typical cold-vortex-induced precipitation case in Northeast China. Convective precipitation falls between maritime-like and continental-like patterns, leaning more toward continental convection. This varies significantly with TCs in Southeast China but is similar to that observed in coastal-front-like rainbands, suggesting extratropical influence. A detailed analysis of the vertical profile of cloud droplets shows a unique “top-down” phenomenon during the extratropical transition process of the TC, where the development of lower-level clouds follows that of upper-level clouds, inconsistent with previous studies and the case for comparison. Further investigation indicates the significant role of the intrusion of dry and cold air from upper levels and the presence of high humidity in low levels in driving this phenomenon. Our results will provide novel insights into cloud and precipitation microphysics associated with TCs in midlatitude regions.

Latent Heat Flux Trend and Its Seasonal Dependence over the East China Sea Kuroshio Region

Investigating latent heat flux (LHF) variations in the western boundary current region is crucial for understanding air–sea interactions. In this study, we examine the LHF trend in the East China Sea Kuroshio Region (ECSKR) from 1959 to 2021 using atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis datasets and find that the LHF has a significant strengthening trend. This strengthening can be attributed to sea surface warming resulting from the advection of sea surface temperatures. More importantly, the LHF trend has an apparent seasonal dependence: the most substantial increasing trend in LHF is observed in spring, while the trends are weak in other seasons. Further analysis illustrates that the anomaly of air–sea humidity difference plays a pivotal role in controlling the seasonal variations in LHF trends. Specifically, as a result of the different responses of the East Asian Trough to global warming across different seasons, during spring, the East Asian Trough significantly deepens, resulting in northerly winds that facilitate the intrusion of dry and cold air into the ECSKR region. This intensifies the humidity difference between the sea and air, promoting the release of oceanic latent heat. These findings can contribute to a better understanding of the surface heat budget balance within western boundary currents.

A Comparison between the Only Two Documented Tornado Outbreak Events in China: Tropical Cyclone versus Extratropical Cyclone Environments

Abstract This study documents the features of tornadoes, their parent storms, and the environments of the only two documented tornado outbreak events in China. The two events were associated with Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yagi on 12 August 2018 with 11 tornadoes and with an extratropical cyclone (EC) on 11 July 2021 (EC 711) with 13 tornadoes. Most tornadoes in TC Yagi were spawned from discrete minisupercells, while a majority of tornadoes in EC 711 were produced from supercells imbedded in QLCSs or cloud clusters. In both events, the high-tornado-density area was better collocated with the K index rather than MLCAPE, and with entraining rather than non-entraining parameters possibly due to their sensitivity to midlevel moisture. EC 711 had a larger displacement between maximum entraining CAPE and vertical wind shear than TC Yagi, with the maximum entraining CAPE better collocated with the high-tornado-density area than vertical wind shear. Relative to TC Yagi, EC 711 had stronger entraining CAPE, 0–1-km storm relative helicity, 0–6-km vertical wind shear, and composite parameters such as an entraining significant tornado parameter, which caused its generally stronger tornado vortex signatures (TVSs) and mesocyclones with a larger diameter and longer life span. No significant differences were found in the composite parameter of these two events from U.S. statistics. Although obvious dry air intrusions were observed in both events, no apparent impact was observed on the potential of tornado outbreak in EC 711. In TC Yagi, however, the dry air intrusion may have helped tornado outbreak due to cloudiness erosion and thus the increase in surface temperature and low-level lapse rate.

Dynamical study of three African Easterly Waves in September 2021

AbstractThree convectively active African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagated south of the African easterly jet were observed over the northeast Atlantic Ocean in September 2021. Their evolution is studied using a suite of theoretical frameworks, as well as the European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecast reanalyses and satellite‐derived brightness temperature observations. The environment of these AEWs was sampled during the Cloud–Atmospheric Dynamics–Dust Interactions in West Africa campaign near Cape Verde with the goal to assess their potential for developing into tropical cyclones. We highlight the processes that inhibited the development of the first AEW (which evolved into tropical disturbance Pierre‐Henri) and that played a role in the development of the later two into tropical storms Rose and Peter on September 19, 2021. The three AEWs developed a so‐called “marsupial protective” pouch. For Peter and Rose, the pouch was associated with a vertically aligned vortex at low levels and efficiently protected the convective systems inside from dry and dusty air intrusion. The development of this low‐level vortex is associated with an interaction with the monsoon trough for Rose and with a vorticity center associated with a wave propagating north of the African easterly jet (AEJ) in the case of Peter. The presence of a dust flux toward the convective core near the surface is highlighted for Rose and Peter in spite of the presence of the protective marsupial pouch. On the other hand, Pierre‐Henri interacted positively with both the monsoon trough and an AEW north of the AEJ but failed to develop into a tropical cyclone. The wave north of the AEJ brought Saharan air layer air masses inside the pouch that led to a drying of the circulation that may explain the decrease in convective activity.

Climatological features of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

AbstractThe study investigates the climatological variation of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RITCs) developed in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) using observational and reanalysis data from 1982 to 2020. The analysis reveals that out of 153 tropical cyclones (TC) developed in the NIO, 59 TCs underwent rapid intensification (RI). The monthly variation of RITCs exhibited bimodal distribution with a primary peak in November and a secondary peak in May. The percentage of RITCs during April–June is higher as compared to October–December. The study identifies the core zones of RI initiation in the Arabian Sea (AS) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. The occurrences of RITCs over the AS have been observed to increase since 2000. Over 65% of RITCs occurred within 12 h of TC formation, and the duration of RI varies from 24 to 48 h. TCs with lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) less than 55 kt have not undergone RI. The trend in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity changes is positive but insignificant (p‐value >0.05) in the AS, and for the BoB, it is negative and significant (p‐value <0.05). We infer that there has been an insignificant increase in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity change at the rate of 0.32 kt per year in the AS and a significant decrease in the 95th percentile of 24‐h intensity change at the rate of −0.21 kt per year in the BoB. The analysis further reveals that during the RI phase the composite SST of RITCs exceeds 30°C in the core zone, and the mid‐tropospheric (700–500 hPa) relative humidity at the centre of RITCs is high, preventing the intrusion of dry air from the west and aiding in the sustenance and intensification of TCs. The study not only provides insight into the climatology of RITCs in the NIO but also delineates the interplay of large‐scale atmospheric and oceanic parameters in fostering rapid intensification of TCs.

Impact of the Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low on the Genesis of Typhoon Hagupit (2020)

Abstract Typhoon Hagupit (2020), which formed unexpectedly close to land, posed great challenges for forecasters. During its genesis, there was a westward-moving upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) to its north. This study investigated the impact of this UTCL on the genesis process using numerical simulations. In the semi-idealized experiment with this UTCL removed (run-Rcold), pre-Hagupit develops faster, but its track drifts southward in the later stage compared with the control experiment (run-cnl). In the experiment with enhanced UTCL (run-Ecold), the simulated track is similar to that in run-cnl, but pre-Hagupit does not develop into a tropical storm. In run-cnl and run-Ecold, the environmental vertical wind shear is larger than that in run-Rcold in the first 2 days, and the simulated pre-Hagupit experiences two prominent dry-air intrusions in the middle and upper troposphere. At the second intrusion, when the weakened UTCL has moved within 2° of pre-Hagupit, the convection in both experiments decays significantly, and the development of the midlevel vortex begins to lag behind that in run-Rcold, and so does the vertical alignment of the low- and midlevel vortices. The UTCL influences the movement of pre-Hagupit by modifying the large-scale steering flows, especially those above 600 hPa. In run-Rcold, due to the absence of the northward component of wind fields related to the UTCL circulation, pre-Hagupit starts to move west-northwestward instead of northwestward as in run-cnl and run-Ecold. Significance Statement Typhoon Hagupit (2020) got named near the 24-h warning line of China. TCs crossing this line are considered to have a significant impact on China within 24 h, or may make landfall within 24 h. After formation, Hagupit rapidly intensified to its peak intensity of 42 m s−1 in 48 h, and made landfall in Zhejiang Province at severe typhoon strength after another 8 h. Both the unexpected genesis and the rapid intensification of Hagupit posed great challenges for forecasters and deserve further investigation. This study focused on the genesis process. We noticed that there was a westward-moving upper-tropospheric cold low (UTCL) in the north during the formation of Hagupit. We have conducted three numerical experiments to investigate the impact of this UTCL on the genesis of Hagupit, and found that the UTCL is an important factor affecting the genesis process. It is detrimental to the vortex development. If the UTCL is removed, Hagupit will develop into a tropical storm more quickly, but its potential landfall point of Hagupit will shift from the southeast coast of China to the Philippines.

Mid‐level dry air intrusions over the southern Maritime Continent

AbstractPatterns in extreme precipitation across the Maritime Continent in southeast Asia are known to be modulated by many processes, from large‐scale modes of variability such as the Madden–Julian oscillation, to finer‐scale mechanisms such as the diurnal cycle. Transient mid‐level dry air intrusions are an example of a feature not extensively studied over the Maritime Continent, which has the potential to influence rainfall patterns. Here, we show that these dry air intrusions originate from upper level disturbances along the subtropical jet. Mid‐level cyclonic circulation anomalies northwest of Australia from December to February (DJF) intensify westerlies in the southern Maritime Continent, advecting dry air eastward. In contrast, mid‐level anticyclonic circulation anomalies northwest of Australia from June to August (JJA) intensify southern Maritime Continent easterlies, advecting dry air westward. The resultant transport direction of associated air parcels is also dependent on the seasonal low‐level monsoon circulation. Dry air intrusions are important in influencing low‐level wind and rainfall patterns, suppressing rainfall over seas near the southern Maritime Continent in both seasons, as well as over southern Maritime Continent islands in DJF and the Indian Ocean in JJA. In both seasons there is enhanced rainfall to the east of the intrusion, where there is moist return flow to the extratropics. This study highlights the importance of synoptic‐scale extratropical features in influencing meteorological patterns in the Tropics.

The role of large-scale atmospheric circulations on long-term variations of PM10 concentrations over Turkey.

PM10 is widely identified as an important atmospheric pollutant posing a serious threat to human health and environment as well as it influences the climate system. To unearth the mechanism involved in its sources and circulation behavior in environment, this study focuses on the role of large-scale atmospheric circulation on the long-term variability of PM10 over Turkey by applying rotated empirical orthogonal functions (REOF) analysis. As a result of the implementation of REOF to the daily PM10 data for 80 air quality stations throughout the period 2010-2020, first REOF mode (REOF1 44.9% in winter, 43.2% in spring, 39.5% in summer and 31.6% in fall) for all the four seasons indicated the role of local emission sources on the variations of PM10, which show high PM10 values in different geographical regions. The results of the second mode (REOF2, 17.9% in winter, 14.0% in spring, 14.0% in summer and 16.3% in fall) indicate the role of large-scale atmospheric circulations on the values of PM10. From the REOF2 analysis and extracted synoptic composite maps, the strength of southerly winds and the presence of southwesterly winds at low levels are very important in transporting of dust pollutants from the Arabian Peninsula and Northern Africa, respectively, to the eastern (EAR) and southeastern (SEAR) regions of Turkey during winter. In spring, sand particles in the interior terrestrial part of the country are carried to the northern regions by the effect of large-scale southerly winds, which cause above-normal PM10 concentrations in the Black Sea region of Turkey. In summer, dust particles together with warm dry air intrusion to the eastern region of Turkey by strong easterly winds are sourced by Caspian Sea and result in high PM10 values. Our findings emphasize that the long-term variations in air quality over Turkey are affected secondary by the variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulations with primary contributions from the changes in local emission sources.

Tropical cyclogenesis: Controlling factors and physical mechanisms

In this review, advances in the understanding of the controlling factors and physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) are summarized from recent (2018–2022) research on TCG, as presented in the Tenth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-10). Observational, theoretical, and numerical modeling studies published in recent years have advanced our knowledge on the influence of large-scale environmental factors on TCG. Furthermore, studies have shown clearly that appropriate convective coupling with tropical equatorial waves enhances the development chances of TCG. More recently, illuminating research has been carried out on analyzing the mechanisms by which oscillations and teleconnections (El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in particular) modulate TCG globally, in association with changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). In addition to this, recent research has diligently addressed different aspects of TCG. Multiple studies have reported the applicability of unified theories and physical mechanisms of TCG in different ocean basins. Recently, research has been carried out on TCG under different flow pattern regimes, dry air intrusion, importance of marsupial pouch, genesis of Medicanes, wind shear, convection and vertical structure. Furthermore, studies have discussed the possibility of near equatorial TCG provided that there is enough supply of background vertical vorticity and relatively low vertical wind shear. Progress has been made to understand the role of climate change on global and regional TCG. However, there are still significant gaps which need to be addressed in order to better understand TCG prediction.

A review of recent research progress on the effect of external influences on tropical cyclone intensity change

Over the past four years, significant research has advanced our understanding of how external factors influence tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. Research on air-sea interactions shows that increasing the moisture disequilibrium is a very effective way to increase surface heat fluxes and that ocean salinity-stratification plays a non-negligible part in TC intensity change. Vertical wind shear from the environment induces vortex misalignment, which controls the onset of significant TC intensification. Blocking due to upper-level outflow from TCs can reduce the magnitude of vertical wind shear, making for TC intensification. Enhanced TC-trough interactions are vital for rapid intensification in some TC cases because of strengthened warm air advection, but upper-level troughs are found to limit TC intensification in other cases due to dry midlevel air intrusions and increased shear. Aerosol effects on TCs can be divided into direct effects involving aerosol-radiation interactions and indirect effects involving aerosol-cloud interactions. The radiation absorption by the aerosols can change the temperature profile and affect outer rainbands through changes in stability and microphysics. Sea spray and sea salt aerosols are more important in the inner region, where the aerosols increase precipitation and latent heating, promoting more intensification. For landfalling TCs, the intensity decay is initially more sensitive to surface roughness than soil moisture, and the subsequent decay is mainly due to the rapid reduction in surface moisture fluxes. These new insights further sharpen our understanding of the mechanisms by which external factors influence TC intensity changes.

A 16-year climatology of the link between dry air intrusions and large-scale dust storms in North Africa

Understanding the underlying processes causing large-scale dust storms and their transport in North Africa is essential for their accurate prediction. Different atmospheric mechanisms have been identified to govern the emission of dust and its transport, ranging in scale and season, from Rossby wave breaking to local, low-level cold and dry jets. Connecting these features in a Lagrangian sense is a coherent airflow from the midlatitude upper troposphere to the surface where dust concentrations peak. Such dry intrusions (DIs) are linked to reduced static stability and strong, dry winds and indeed have been recently shown to play a central role in four of the largest dust storm in the region. Yet, the climatological link between DIs and dust storms over a long time period has not been studied yet. The aim of this paper is to identify objectively dust events that co-occur with DIs, and understand their spatio-temporal characteristics and underlying dynamical drivers. Combining Lagrangian-based DI identification in ERA-Interim and dust optical depth data in CAMS reanalyses, 325 events during 2003–2018 are identified. The events occur mostly in late winter and spring, when they are also larger in size and last longer, compared to summer events. When occurring with DIs, dust optical depth is generally higher, compared to events that are not accompanied by DIs. We focus on March events, and find coherent large-scale precursors and atmospheric conditions of dust-DI events: a northward jet shift over the North Atlantic with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking occurs on average 4–5 days prior to the events. The lower troposphere responds with dry and cold conditions in northwest Africa, coinciding with the outflow of the DI airstream that is initially guided by the upper trough. Finally, elevated near-surface dust concentrations prevail on the leading edge of the DI in tropical west Africa, and in northeast Africa, where dust is exported to the Mediterranean in association with a Mediterranean cyclone.

Enhancement of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by cross-equatorial dry intrusions

The Indian summer monsoon affects the lives of over 1/6 of the world’s population. Precipitation extremes during summer monsoons have dire socioeconomic impacts. Yet, the mechanisms leading to these extremes are poorly understood, making their accurate forecasts and reliable future projections a longstanding challenge. Using a Lagrangian-based method, we show that precipitation extremes link to dry air intrusions from the southern midlatitudes upper troposphere, crossing the equator, and reaching the Arabian Sea. By triggering intense ocean evaporation, these dry intrusions are associated with modulated moisture transport patterns toward India and enhanced precipitation by >17% on average, often embedding local extremes. A notable example is the excessive rain that caused the devastating Kerala flood of 2018. However, depending on the wind pattern, these dry intrusions may, in some cases, decrease rainfall over land. The emerging connection of rainfall variability with midlatitude weather systems opens opportunities for improving the forecast of precipitation extremes and understanding their future projections.

Analysis of Landfalling Rapidly Weakening Tropical Cyclones in the Philippines

Rapid weakening (RW) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is defined as the 90th percentile of all 24-h over-water weakening rates in the Western North Pacific (WNP) basin, corresponding to a decrease of at least 20 kt in the JMA dataset and 25 kt in the JTWC dataset. RW tends to occur along the 20 – 30° N latitude of the WNP, which makes the probability of RW TC landfall in the Philippines low. Over the study period from 1951–2020, a total of 468 and 563 WNP RW TCs were recorded, where only 17 and 19 of those made landfall in the country based on the JMA and JTWC datasets, respectively. Analysis of potential wind threats of landfalling RW TCs shows significantly lower hazards than non-RW TCs, except for those that make landfall on northern Luzon. RW occurs more frequently outside of the southwest monsoon or Habagat season. Simulations of two recently landfalling RW TCs – Typhoon (TY) Maysak (2015) and TY Yutu (2018) – using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show the decrease in the equivalent potential temperature (𝜽e), a measure of the amount of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, in the TC inner core region can be used to diagnose RW. Constantly decreasing 𝜽e values below 400 𝑲 caused by cooler underlying sea surface temperature and/or dry air intrusion lead to TC RW. RW can also occur in low-shear environments. Environmental conditions that result in RW are typically observed from October–April of the following year, which explains the higher occurrence frequency of RW in the inactive TC season of the WNP. While the impacts of RW TCs are lower, over-forecasting a TC in one event can lead to a complacent populace for the next, as well as damage the reputation of forecasters, hence the importance of understanding RW.

Modulation of Asymmetric Inner‐Core Convection on Midlevel Ventilation Leading up to the Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima (2019)

AbstractThis study investigates how the asymmetric inner‐core convection can modulate midlevel ventilation preceding rapid intensification (RI) of sheared tropical cyclones (TC) based on two numerical experiments of Typhoon Lekima (2019) with warm (CTL) and relatively cool (SSTA0) sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The midlevel ventilation is dominated by an inflow layer between heights of 5 and 10 km in the upshear‐left quadrant, while the convective development in the upshear‐left quadrant acts to induce asymmetric midlevel outflow. These outflows, together with the reduced tilt, lessen the strength of midlevel inflow in a quadrant‐mean sense. Due to a slower boundary‐layer recovery of low‐entropy air over cooler SST, convective development in the upshear‐left quadrant in SSTA0 is suppressed, causing stronger midlevel inflows than that in CTL. A backward trajectory analysis initialized near the RI onset of CTL shows that the TC in CTL is less susceptible to the intrusion of midlevel dry air from left‐of‐shear and upshear‐left quadrant due to the weaker upshear‐left midlevel inflow. Moreover, the intruding air parcels in SSTA0 tend to originate farther away from TC center and lower the eyewall equivalent potential temperature more effectively. A column‐integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget reveals a dramatic increase in MSE in inner‐core region associated with the positive changes of horizontal MSE advection radially outward of enhanced convective rainbands preceding RI onset in CTL. In contrast, the MSE increases more slowly in SSTA0 due to the weaker upshear convection, inducing a less favorable thermodynamic conditions that is potentially responsible for a delayed RI onset.

The precipitation distribution set by eddy fluxes: the case of boreal winter

The latitudinal precipitation distribution shows a secondary peak in midlatitudes and a minimum in the subtropics. This minimum is widely attributed to the descending branch of the Eulerian Hadley cell. This study however shows that the precipitation distribution aligns more closely with the transformed Eulerian mean (TEM) vertical motion. In Northern Hemisphere winter, maximum TEM descent (ascent) and precipitation minimum (maximum) are collocated at ~20°N (~40°N). The subtropical descent is mostly driven by the meridional flux of zonal momentum by large-scale eddies, while the midlatitude ascent is driven by the meridional flux of heat by the eddies. When the poleward eddy momentum flux is sufficiently strong, however, the secondary precipitation peak shifts to 60°N corresponding to the location of the TEM ascent driven by the eddy momentum flux. Moisture supply for the precipitation is aided by evaporation which is enhanced where the TEM descending branch brings down dry air from the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere. This picture is reminiscent of dry air intrusions in synoptic meteorology, suggesting that the descending branch may embody a zonal mean expression of dry air intrusions. Moist air rises following the TEM ascending branch, suggesting that the ascending branch may be interpreted as a zonal mean expression of warm conveyor belts. This study thus offers a large-scale dynamics perspective of the synoptic description of precipitation systems. The findings here also suggest that future changes in the eddy momentum flux, which is poorly understood, could play a pivotal role in determining the future precipitation distribution.

Dry air intrusions link Rossby wave breaking to large-scale dust storms in Northwest Africa: Four extreme cases

Large dust storms in the Saharan desert and the subsequent transport of airborne dust over large distances are a major meteorological hazard. Several mechanisms associated to dust emission, occurring on a range of scales, have been previously documented, notably involving Rossby wave breaking and a low-level jet. However, the mechanistic link between the different features and actual dust concentrations has not been coherently established. Here, using a Lagrangian approach, and the conceptual view of extratropical cyclone airstreams, the role of the dry intrusion airstream for translating the influence of the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave perturbation to near-surface flow conductive for the highest dust concentrations is examined. To this end, four large-scale dust storms that were accompanied by dry intrusions in west Africa are studied. Data from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (validated against AERONET station data) are combined with atmospheric data from reanalysis and objectively-identified Lagrangian trajectories of dry intrusions. Common, coherent structures highlighting the role of dry intrusions link the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave breaks with the lower-tropospheric dry and cold jets. These conditions favor dust uplift and transport along an arc-shaped cold front trailing from a Mediterranean cyclone. Consequently, the southwest side of the front is characterized by the highest near-surface dust concentrations ahead of the dry intrusion outflow, where the Intertropical Discontinuity shifts equatorward by 3 to 7°. The northeast part of the front is, however, accompanied by southerly, warm conveyor belt-like flow transporting the dust northward to the Mediterranean, Middle East and/or Europe at mid and upper-tropospheric levels. While case-to-case variations exists, the central role of dry intrusions in all cases calls for systematic investigation of its occurrence as a predictive tool for large dust transport events.

A Tale of Two Vortex Evolutions: Using a High-Resolution Ensemble to Assess the Impacts of Ventilation on a Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Event

Abstract The multiscale nature of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change under moderate vertical wind shear was explored through an ensemble of high-resolution simulations of Hurricane Gonzalo (2014). Ensemble intensity forecasts were characterized by large short-term (36-h) uncertainty, with a forecast intensity spread of over 20 m s−1, due to differences in the timing of rapid intensification (RI) onset. Two subsets of ensemble members were examined, referred to as early-RI and late-RI members. The two ensemble groups displayed significantly different vortex evolutions under the influence of a nearby upper-tropospheric trough and an associated dry-air intrusion. Mid-to-upper-tropospheric ventilation in late-RI members was linked to a disruption of inner-core diabatic heating, a more tilted vortex, and vortex breakdown, as the simulated TCs transitioned from a vorticity annulus toward a monopole structure. A column-integrated moist static energy (MSE) budget revealed the important role of horizontal advection in depleting MSE from the TC core, while mesoscale subsidence beneath the dry-air intrusion acted to dry a deep layer of the troposphere. Eventually, the dry-air intrusion retreated from late-RI members as vertical wind shear weakened, the magnitude of vortex tilt decreased, and late-RI members began to rapidly intensify, ultimately reaching a similar intensity as early-RI members. Conversely, the vortex structures of early-RI members were shown to exhibit greater intrinsic resilience to tilting from vertical wind shear, and early-RI members were able to fend off the dry-air intrusion relatively unscathed. The different TC intensity evolutions can be traced back to differences in the initial TC vortex structure and intensity. Significance Statement Despite recent advances, tropical cyclone intensity forecasts struggle to accurately predict episodes of rapid intensification. Such forecasts become increasingly challenging when a storm is embedded within an environment of moderate vertical wind shear. This study uses an ensemble of high-resolution simulations to examine how environmental influences can affect the tropical cyclone vortex and precipitation structure, which, in turn, modulate the intensity of the storm and the onset of rapid intensification. We propose a feedback that exists where slightly weaker and less resilient vortices are more susceptible to ventilation from dry, environmental air, aided in part by differential advection from the tilted circulation, resulting in a degradation of vortex organization and a delayed onset of rapid intensification.

Dry air valley in the upper troposphere over the eastern Mediterranean-western Tibetan Plateau

Based on AIRS satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, we investigated the seasonal evolution of the dry air valley (DAV) in the upper troposphere over regions from the eastern Mediterranean to the western Tibetan Plateau (EM-WTP). We find that monsoon-related descending motion is the main driver for the DAV, and its contribution to the DAV is 61%. The intensity of DAV increases rapidly in June, reaches its maximum in late July and early August, then weakens gradually until it disappears in early October. From May to July, zonal temperature gradient over the Mediterranean Sea increases and the southerly wind in the western South Asia High enhances, resulting in an enhancement of descending motion over the Mediterranean. Meanwhile, the northerly wind and zonal vorticity gradient over south of the Aral Sea strengthen due to the thermal-dynamical effect of the Tibetan-Iranian Plateau, consequently, descending motion over south of the Aral Sea intensifies. From August to September, the descending motion weakens quickly over the Mediterranean but remains nearly steady over south of the Aral Sea. As a result, the east-west water vapor gradient increases over the DAV, and water vapor in the DAV converges horizontally due to the transport of westerlies. Accordingly, the DAV intensity decreases. Apart from the descending motion, the dry air intrusion from the lower stratosphere associated with tropopause fold events also has an impact on the DAV intensity. However, the contribution of the tropopause fold events to the DAV is rather small, no >10%.