Interprovincial Migration Research Articles

Motivations in transition: destination choices of inter-provincial migration among Chinese older adults

AbstractDespite the growing interest in the migration of older adults in China, the intricacies linking migration motivations with destination choices remain insufficiently explored. Drawing from China’s unique context, we categorize inter-provincial older migrants into three types: employment-led, dependent, and lifestyle. Using microdata from the Sixth Population Census of 2010 and the 1% Population Sampling Survey of 2015, we examine their evolving motivations and corresponding shifts in destination preferences. The analysis shows an increase in lifestyle-oriented migration and a decrease in dependent migration, while employment-led migration has remained stable relative to the total. Older migrants seeking employment tend to favor destinations further south, prioritizing regional economic conditions. In contrast, those motivated by lifestyle factors exhibit a broader range of destination choices, largely due to their preference for amenities. Dependent older adult migrants consider both job-related and amenity-related factors and demonstrate a stronger tendency to relocate to the east. Amenity-related factors have increasingly influenced the destination choices across all three types of migration over time. Our findings provide deeper insights into the intricacies of migration in old adulthood and highlight the need for tailored policymaking.

Changing patterns and determinants of China's interprovincial migration: Evidence from the 2020 census

AbstractInterprovincial migration in China has changed in recent years due to the socioeconomic transformation. Yet, less attention has been paid to the current spatial patterns of interprovincial migration, especially the spatial heterogeneity of the determinants. Based on the newly released 2020 census data, this study explored the spatial patterns and determinants of interprovincial migration in China using a spatial analysis and geographically weighted regression. The results revealed multiple trends in interprovincial migration, including flow from developing provinces in the central region to eastern and western regions and returning flow from developed to developing provinces in the central and western regions. The Beijing‐Tianjin‐Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations remained centres of population inflow. Moreover, key western development areas, such as the Chengdu‐Chongqing area and Xinjiang, emerged as centres of population inflow. Economic and social development, social safety, and living environment significantly and positively affected interprovincial migration. Furthermore, significant spatial heterogeneity in factors influencing migration was detected. The findings provide a systematic understanding of China's interprovincial migration in 2020 and the spatial heterogeneity of determinants can guide the population development strategy design of governments.

Dynamics of Intercity Migration Propensity in China: Evidence from an Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

This research conducts a disaggregation of three major temporal interrelations – age, period, and cohort (APC) – to fully grasp variations in intercity migration propensity in China. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Sixth Population Census in 2010 and the 1% Population Sampling Surveys in 2005 and 2015, we disentangle APC effects on the two-stage migration decision-making process through the Hierarchical APC model. The empirical findings are as follows: the likelihood of migration decreases as individuals age, persisting until their early 60s, after which a slight upward trend is observed. Migrants from the 1940–1985 cohorts exhibit an increasing propensity for migration, which later reverses in subsequent cohorts. However, the average intercity migration propensity does not significantly vary across periods. Furthermore, the decision of where to migrate – whether to move across provincial boundaries – also varies across APC factors. The propensity for interprovincial migration steadily declines with age. The contextual period effects are significant and partially result from the development of foreign-invested enterprises. Individuals born in the 1960s and 1970s are more likely to migrate interprovincially compared to their post-1980s counterparts. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of these results. Our findings shed light on more nuanced mechanisms underlying the dynamics of intercity migration in China, particularly the effects of cohort replacement on migration.

Does the Inter-Provincial Floating Population Affect Regional Economic Development in China? An Empirical Analysis

In recent decades, significant changes in the urban–rural structure of population mobility have profoundly impacted provincial development, urbanization, and population redistribution in China. Based on China’s fifth, sixth, and seventh national population census datasets, this study explores the effects of the inter-provincial floating population on regional economic development through statistical and empirical analysis, identifying both the scale and structural impacts of the floating population on regional economic development. The results found that while the scale of China’s floating population has been continuously increasing, the spatial distribution pattern remains relatively unchanged, and the pattern is summed up as low in the middle and high on both sides. The floating population exerts both scale and structural effects on the economic development of both inflow and outflow regions, altering regional populations and production efficiency, and thereby influencing regional economic outcomes. Specifically, this study finds that the inflow population has no significant differential impact on high- and low-density regions. In contrast, the outflow population exhibits a significant differential impact, with the negative impact of the outflow population on low-density regions being more substantial than that on high-density regions. Inter-provincial migration supports achieving sustainable development goals (SDG-8 and 11) by shaping regional economic development. To address these dynamics, the high-density regions of China should transform and upgrade the industrial and population structure by promoting the trend of population return to low-density regions. This can be achieved by transferring low-end industries and low-skilled labor, thereby alleviating the pressure of overcrowding. Meanwhile, low-density regions should seize the opportunities for population return and industrial transfer, implement talent introduction, and accurately undertake industrial transfer. This approach can foster the in-depth development of new urbanization and rural revitalization initiatives, promoting balanced regional growth and sustainability.

The changing geography of interprovincial migration in China: history and new trends

ABSTRACT This paper elucidates how the geography of interprovincial migration in China has evolved with the country’s structural changes over the past 35 years and explores how this geography has developed in the past decade. In synthesizing existing literature, we demonstrate that the coast-inland migration discrepancy emerged in the late 1980s when migration control was relaxed and a coastal development strategy was adopted, reinforced in the 1990s when globalization, marketization, and decentralization unfolded and interprovincial economic disparities increased, and stabilized in the 2000s when the growth of interprovincial economic disparities came to a halt with the country’s shift to a coordinated regional development strategy. Using 2020 Census data, the geography is revealed to have become less skewed between 2010 and 2020, driven primarily by two groups of provinces. One group includes five southeast coastal provinces and two coastal municipalities; the other includes nine southern inland provinces. The southern inland-coast migration flows, which had been growing prior to 2010, have decreased between 2010 and 2020, whereas counterflows have increased greatly. These emerging trends can be attributed to several significant transformations in China’s demography and economic landscape, including the aging of a large number of first-generation migrants, a declining workforce, the relocation of manufacturing industries, and people’s increasing emphasis on public services, the access to which are often tied to the hukou place. Interprovincial migration in China has reached a turning point in terms of geographic changes. The policies on this migration and the geographical framework for analyzing it may need updating.

Stay, leave late, leave early, return, or move onward? Interprovincial migration decisions of older adults in China, 2000–2005 and 2010–2015

AbstractExisting studies on the migration of older adults in China have tended to treat older migration as a one‐off activity and have failed to investigate the multiple processes involved. Based on the microdata samples of the 1% national population sample surveys in 2005 and 2015, this study examines the effect of regional and personal attributes on older adults' two‐phase migration decisions. In the first phase, older adults decide whether to leave the province of household registration, while in the second phase, they decide to stay in the same province, return to the province of household registration, or move onward to a new province. In the first phase of migration, older adults' decisions were affected by several regional amenities, including medical services, public green areas, air pollution, and temperature differences. In the second phase of migration, older adults who had decided to remain in the first phase tended to leave provinces with a lower cost of living, fewer public green areas, and more extreme temperature differences. Older adults who, in the first phase, had moved to a new province with fewer medical services, more severe air pollution, and larger temperature differences were more likely to return to their province of household registration in the second phase in 2000‐2005, while those residing in provinces with more extreme temperature differences tended to move onward to a new province in 2010‐2015. This study enhances our understanding of the heterogeneity of older migration in China by disentangling the complexity of multiple migration processes.

Urbanization and economic growth in China: empirical evidence based on a SIVQR approach

PurposeWe seek to quantify the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China using recent advances in econometric techniques.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a smoothed instrumental variables quantile regression (SIVQR) estimator to obtain consistent estimates of the effects of urbanization on economic growth in China. Our approach accounts for the differential impacts of urbanization across the conditional distribution of economic growth while allowing for an identification strategy that addresses the endogeneity of urbanization. Our main findings reveal that ignoring urbanization endogeneity leads to inconsistent estimates of urbanization effects. Further, we find a positive relationship between urbanization and growth resembling an inverted U-shape. This supports the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of urbanization intensify at initial stages while diminishing beyond a certain threshold, due perhaps to weakening scale economies.FindingsOur main results indicate that the individual productivity gains brought by urbanization outweigh the negative effects thereof that impede productivity, thus contributing to the economic growth in China. Further, we find that ignoring differential impacts of urbanization underestimates the beneficial effects of urbanization for provinces whose quality of governance is in the vicinity of the center of quality distribution. Ignoring the endogeneity of urbanization generates inconsistent estimates of the elasticity of economic growth with respect to urbanization. Finally, we estimate an inverted U-shape resembling relationship between urbanization and growth.Research limitations/implicationsFirst, future studies would benefit from incorporating more data as provinces further east on the mainland become more urbanized and urbanization runs its course. Second, controlling the barriers to rural-urban mobility would contribute to the robustness of the estimated relationship between urbanization and growth once such data became available. Unveiling the impact of government-imposed barriers is key to designing optimal policies that help fuel economic growth in the country. Finally, future research could benefit from information on urbanization sources not considered here such as inter-provincial migration, as such data become publicly available.Practical implicationsQuantifying the beneficial effects of urbanization on economic growth can help guide the government in China to further fuel the growth through a set of relevant policy tools that promote urbanization.Social implicationsRural-urban migration in China lays the groundwork for economic advancement in recipient cities and economies, as it may induce scale economies. This can benefit both the economy at large and the migrants.Originality/valueThe SIVQR estimator accounts for potential heterogeneous effects of urbanization across the entire conditional distribution of growth while allowing for an identification strategy that addresses the endogeneity of urbanization. An additional distinguishing feature of the current study is our use of the most recent novel, provincial-level data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Our focus on a single country allows sidestepping issues arising from the inconsistency of the definition of urban across different countries while accounting for intra-country urbanization drivers intrinsic to China, such as natural features and geographic characteristics. Therefore, our approach has the potential to sidestep the bias resulting from the differences in mechanisms behind urbanization-growth relationships across different countries.

Climatic Variability and Internal Migration in Asia: Evidence from Big Microdata

AbstractThe effects of climate change on human migration have received widespread attention, driven in part by concerns about potential large‐scale population displacements. Recent studies demonstrate that climate‐migration linkages are often complex, and climatic variability may increase, decrease, or have null effects on migration. However, the use of noncomparable analytic strategies across studies makes it difficult to disentangle substantive variation in climate effects across populations and places from methodological artifacts. We address this gap by using harmonized census and survey microdata from six Asian countries (n = 54,987,838) to measure climate effects on interprovincial migration, overall and among subpopulations defined by age, sex, education, and country of residence. We also evaluate whether climate effects differ according to the distance and type of move. Exposure to precipitation deficits leads to substantively large reductions in out‐migration, and, surprisingly, these overall effects do not vary meaningfully by age, sex, or educational attainment. However, there are significant differences in the strength and direction of temperature and precipitation effects by country and within countries. Multinomial models show that precipitation deficits reduce internal migration to both adjacent and nonadjacent provinces. Finally, consistent with expectations that climate effects operate through economic mechanisms, spells of low precipitation reduce the probability of work‐related moves in the countries where the reason for migration is measured. Our findings provide further evidence that adverse environmental conditions can reduce migration, underlining the need for policymakers to consider how to support both displaced and trapped populations.

The NB Housing Summit: Solutions to Promote Housing Affordability in the Mid-sized City of Saint John, New Brunswick

Canada is in the midst of a national housing crisis that renders households vulnerable to unstable and unaffordable housing, and various forms of homelessness. New Brunswick is a largely rural Canadian province with three mid-sized cities that have lower housing values than larger Canadian centres. However, affordability is eroding in the province’s housing market, and the rental market offers few options for low-to-moderate-income renters. Simultaneously, visible homelessness and encampments are on the rise. Saint John, one of the mid-sized cities, is a relatively new destination for housing market investment and interprovincial migration, which is leading to higher rents and housing purchase prices. Through an analysis of World Café data collected with 85 individuals (representatives from government, people with lived experience of housing instability, non-profit agencies, housing developers, etc.) in Saint John, New Brunswick, this paper presents locally driven, on-the-ground solutions to the housing and homelessness crises in a mid-sized city.

Environmental health, economy, and amenities interactively drive migration patterns among China's older people.

The increasing number of older adult migrants is rapidly changing regional demographic and social structures in China. There is an urgent need to understand the spatial patterns and factors that influence older adults to migrate, especially the role of environmental health. However, this issue has been under-studied. This study focused on intra-provincial and inter-provincial older adult migrants as research subjects, estimated their spatial concentration index based on the iterative proportional fitting approach, and explored the factors influencing their migration using the GeoDetector Model. The results showed the following: (1) In 2015, more than 76% of inter-provincial older adult migrants were distributed in Eastern China, and most intra-provincial older adult migrants were scattered in sub-provincial cities. (2) Compared to factors relating to economy and amenities, environmental health by itself played a relatively weak role in the migration of older adults, but the interaction among environmental health, economy, and amenities was a key driving force of older adult migration. (3) There were significant differences in the dominant environmental health factors between inter-provincial migration and intra-provincial migration, which were temperature and altitude, respectively. Our findings can help policymakers focus on the composition of older adult migrants based on urban environmental health characteristics and rationally optimize older adult care facilities to promote supply-demand matching.

Slipping Through the Gap: Exploring the Influence of Social Health Insurance on Access to Healthcare for Older Migrant Workers.

Objectives: Older migrant workers (OMWs) frequently confront barriers to accessing care, as their Social Health Insurance (SHI) coverage may not extend beyond their hometown. This study seeks to investigate whether Chinese OMWs can still derive benefits from SHI in accessing healthcare services, even when their SHI is not registered in the same location as their current residence. Methods: This study used data from 2015 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and focused on OMWs aged 60years and older (N = 3,050). Logistic regression models were employed to investigate the factors influencing healthcare use. Results: Having SHI registered in current place of residence and interprovincial migration were significantly associated with increased likelihoods of doctor visits among OMWs. However, inpatient services use did not appear to be associated with the SHI registration place and migration range. Conclusion: Chinese OMWs derive fewer benefits from SHI in accessing healthcare services when their SHI is not registered in current residence. Governments in Low- and Middle-Income Countries should consider implementing targeted policies to provide adequate protection for OMWs and expand the coverage of direct reimbursement for cross-province healthcare services.

Dynamics and implications of the age profiles of inter-provincial migration in China

AbstractThis research examines the shifts in age profiles among migrants in China, utilizing microdata derived from four national censuses and two 1% population sample surveys conducted since 1990. Our findings indicate: (1) there has been a surge in age-specific migration intensity across all age groups over the past two decades; (2) the age profiles of the flow floating population differ from both the entire and the residual migrant populations; and (3) the age profiles of China's flow floating population exhibit a blend of Asian and Western patterns—a prevalence among individuals in their early 20s, typical of Asian patterns, and a broad range of ages post-peak, indicative of Western patterns. Consequently, we propose that future population projections prioritize the flow floating population over the traditionally employed entire floating population. Furthermore, recognizing heterogeneity is critical for accurately understanding migrants in China, necessitating a comprehensive migration policy that safeguards the rights and welfare of these individuals.

Distribution and Migration of Recent Healthcare Graduates in Canada.

Although data on new graduates are available and typically included in the health workforce planning (HWP) model, information on their interprovincial migration pattern is less known. This paper aims to understand the mobility pattern of recent healthcare graduates - family physicians and regulated nurses - across the different Canadian jurisdictions. Health workforce data from the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI) were used to identify recent family physician and regulated nurse graduates. We identified new graduates (between 2015 and 2019) in a particular province and distributed them according to the province/territory in which they registered to practise. The jurisdiction where they are trained is a key factor in determining their migration rates. For both professions, Ontario and British Columbia have the lowest rates of new graduate out-migration and the highest rates of in-migration, leaving them with a positive net interprovincial migration. This analysis can be used to inform better HWP at the jurisdictional level in these professions. Working and community conditions matter to keep and attract new graduates.

Spatio-temporal process and influencing factors of polluting enterprises' migration: an empirical study based on the Yangtze River Delta

The migration of polluting enterprises (MPE) is a crucial subject within the fields of Environmental Economic Geography and Enterprise Geography. An analysis was conducted on the temporal-spatial evolution and influencing factors of the MPE by employing the full-sample enterprises data from the "Qichacha" system. The main findings were obtained: (1) The polluting enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have undergone an evolutionary process of proximity migration, intra-provincial proximity to intra-provincial long distance migration, with intra-provincial migration being the main focus supplemented by inter-provincial migration, and coexisting intra-provincial and inter-provincial migration. (2) The estimation results, based on the panel negative-binomial model, reveal that the variables having a greater impact on the MPE encompass environmental regulation, industrial upgrading policies, cost factors, geographical distance, coastal and inter-provincial boundaries, etc. These influencing factors display time heterogeneity and industry heterogeneity. (3) By taking the Nijiaxiang Group, which was involved in the 321 Explosion Accident in Xiangshui, as an example, it was discovered that insufficient inheritance of environmental protection concepts, corruption of officials, and social governance problems have resulted in shortcomings in the area. This has led to a lowered level of local environmental regulation, transforming the local area into a haven for polluting enterprises such as the Nijiaxiang Group. The contribution of this study lies in observing the MPE from the perspective of "inter-regional association," and within the group enterprises. It addresses the deficiencies of existing research that mainly examines the evolution of industrial geographic patterns and statically observes polluting enterprises' entry and exit behavior. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the Pollution Shelter Hypothesis is not universal and has an impact in the Yangtze River Delta region after 2012.

The Spatiotemporal Elasticity of Age Structure in China’s Interprovincial Migration System

The supply and demand of labour in the market can often experience profound transformations as a result of an ageing population. This can substantially impact the sustainable development of human society. Since the 1970s, China’s internal migration has continued to increase, but there has been a shift toward an ageing trend since the year 2000. How does the change of age structure interact with socioeconomic development to produce changes in the supply and demand of labour over space and time? This study constructs a spatial dynamic panel data model of interprovincial migration flows in China from 1985 to 2015 in order to quantify the spatiotemporal impacts of age structure on migration. The preliminary results indicate that age structure plays the most important role among regional socioeconomic characteristics of migration, dominated by the large supply, demand, and cross elasticities of labour population. Labour demand and the cross elasticities of total dependency ratio rank second. Comparatively, the total elasticities of regional GDP and wage levels on migration flows are not as significant as expected. This study lays the groundwork for identifying the interaction mechanisms of migration systems and provides important insights on regional sustainable development from the perspective of ageing.

Changes in migration determinants along the urban hierarchy in China

ABSTRACT This paper examines trends of internal migration in China across two decades, with a focus on changes in socio-demographic predictors of origin-destination patterns. We use four microdata samples of the China decennial census and minicensus. After introducing a description of overall internal migration trends and providing a discussion of the utility of the urban hierarchy framework, we proceed with a two-step statistical approach. We look first descriptively at interprovincial bilateral migration flows. We then turn to a multivariate analysis of outmigration and destination selection as a function of age, sex, educational attainment and hukou status. Our results reveal the differential attractiveness of origins (for retention) and destinations by demographic characteristics and position within the urban hierarchy, and also indicate shifts in the strength of predictors over time. Greater educational attainment and urban hukou strongly favour the selection of a destination within the top levels of the urban hierarchy. Over time, selectivity by gender weakens. Although urban hukou and schooling become slightly less powerful predictors of interprovincial migration, attractiveness of top-tier destinations increases once individual demographic characteristics are controlled.

The effect of equalization of public health services on the health China's migrant population: Evidence from 2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey.

China has implemented an equalization of public health Services policy for migrants in 40 pilot cities since 2013. The main objective of this study is to explore the effect of this migrant-based reform policy on the health status of the migrant population in China. Using the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), we included 152,000 migrants aged 15 years or over in 2018. Standardized questionnaires were used to collect socio-economic information and self-reported health status. The Associations between the equalization of public health services and health status were estimated using Multiple regression estimation models and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) methods. Public health equalization reform in China has a significant and positive effect on the health status of the migrant population (β = 0.033, p < 0.001). Compared to males, higher income, under 60 years of age, inter-provincial mobility, and migrants those already living in urban areas, the equalization of public health Services had shown more significant positive effects on the groups who were inter-provincial migration (β = 0.055, p < 0.001), females (β = 0.055, p < 0.001), having low-income (β = 0.077, p < 0.001), aged over 60 years old (β = 0.191, p < 0.001), and living in rural areas (β = 0.038, p < 0.001). And multiple robustness tests prove that the above results are reliable. Our findings confirmed the positive health effect of the equalization of public health services reform on china's migrant population, especially among vulnerable groups such as those in low income groups, in rural areas and females. And we recommend that it is necessary to further promote the practices and experiences of the pilot cities. First, strengthen health education for the mobile population and improve their health literacy. Second, further increase the financial investment to improve the coverage of public health services and the equity in resource allocation among regions. Last, strengthen the information-based management of the migrant population and prevent and control infectious diseases.

Globalization and internal migration: evidence from inter-provincial mobility in Vietnam

ABSTRACT This paper explores the link between globalization and internal mobility in Vietnam. We find that Vietnam’s internationalization processes have an asymmetric economic impact on the provinces. Using data on inter-provincial migration flows, we show that this asymmetry is also detectable in terms of differences in the levels of provincial attraction vis-à-vis internal migration. In particular, provinces receiving higher foreign direct investment are found to be the most attractive for internal migrants. The existence of a pull-through effect associated with migrant networks also emerges in our findings. Overall, the results corroborate the idea that globalization processes are key determinants of internal migration flows.

‘Pa-uli na’: Filipino familial intimacy and entreaties to returning interprovincial migrants

ABSTRACT This article explores how family intimacy and traditional values interplay in the return of rural interprovincial migrants in the Philippines, in response to entreaties made by family members. Specifically, it looks at how Filipino behavioural patterns for social acceptance underlie interprovincial migrants’ decision to return. Jacqui Gabb’s concept of family intimacy and Virginia Miralao’s discourse on Filipino family and traditional values provide a theoretical framework to further understand the complexities of family practices and interprovincial migration in the country. Ethnographic narratives and observations were collected to highlight family intimacy and the cultural foundation of ‘pa-uli na’ entreaties. By unravelling the different forms of entreaties and patterns of the decision to return, this article conceptualizes family as an affective space of intimacy that constitutes the socio-cultural context for the analysis.

Evidence of self-selection and spatial mismatch in interregional migration: the case of Italy

Abstract Selective migration does not necessarily imply a unique unidirectional or ‘synchronized’ flow from the poorer to the richer regions. Indeed, migration is selective to individual characteristics of migrants, but also places. Therefore, it is likely that migrants with different skill levels, age, and gender select different destinations—irrespective of regional disparities—with a greater degree of synchronization by similar individuals. The article explores these processes in Italy using inter-provincial migration flows (NUTS3) data for the years 1975, 1985, 1995, and 2005 and dividing migrants into 18 categories based on their human capital (proxied by education), age, and gender. Findings confirm the hypothesis of selective migration flows with clear-cut differences in choosing locations according to individual characteristics.