Dynamics of Intercity Migration Propensity in China: Evidence from an Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Abstract

This research conducts a disaggregation of three major temporal interrelations – age, period, and cohort (APC) – to fully grasp variations in intercity migration propensity in China. Using repeated cross-sectional data from the Sixth Population Census in 2010 and the 1% Population Sampling Surveys in 2005 and 2015, we disentangle APC effects on the two-stage migration decision-making process through the Hierarchical APC model. The empirical findings are as follows: the likelihood of migration decreases as individuals age, persisting until their early 60s, after which a slight upward trend is observed. Migrants from the 1940–1985 cohorts exhibit an increasing propensity for migration, which later reverses in subsequent cohorts. However, the average intercity migration propensity does not significantly vary across periods. Furthermore, the decision of where to migrate – whether to move across provincial boundaries – also varies across APC factors. The propensity for interprovincial migration steadily declines with age. The contextual period effects are significant and partially result from the development of foreign-invested enterprises. Individuals born in the 1960s and 1970s are more likely to migrate interprovincially compared to their post-1980s counterparts. Sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of these results. Our findings shed light on more nuanced mechanisms underlying the dynamics of intercity migration in China, particularly the effects of cohort replacement on migration.