Dynamics and implications of the age profiles of inter-provincial migration in China

Abstract

AbstractThis research examines the shifts in age profiles among migrants in China, utilizing microdata derived from four national censuses and two 1% population sample surveys conducted since 1990. Our findings indicate: (1) there has been a surge in age-specific migration intensity across all age groups over the past two decades; (2) the age profiles of the flow floating population differ from both the entire and the residual migrant populations; and (3) the age profiles of China's flow floating population exhibit a blend of Asian and Western patterns—a prevalence among individuals in their early 20s, typical of Asian patterns, and a broad range of ages post-peak, indicative of Western patterns. Consequently, we propose that future population projections prioritize the flow floating population over the traditionally employed entire floating population. Furthermore, recognizing heterogeneity is critical for accurately understanding migrants in China, necessitating a comprehensive migration policy that safeguards the rights and welfare of these individuals.