Ground Motion Intensity Measures Research Articles

Ground Motion Intensity Measures to Evaluate II: The Performance of Shallow-Founded Structures on Liquefiable Ground

A reliable mitigation of the liquefaction hazard requires an accurate estimation of the consequences of liquefaction in the context of building performance. Knowledge and use of an optimal intensity measure (IM) will reduce variability and improve accuracy of the predicted measure of performance. This paper presents the results of a three-dimensional, fully coupled, nonlinear, dynamic parametric numerical simulation of shallow-founded structures on layered, liquefiable soils, previously validated with centrifuge results. The generation and redistribution of excess pore pressures as well as soil-structure interaction effects were directly considered in the simulations. The influence of different IMs recorded at the base rock, far-field soil surface, and foundation was evaluated and compared on engineering demand parameters (EDP) that relate to structural performance and damage potential, such as foundation settlement and peak, transient, inter-story drift ratios. The IMs identified with the best combination of efficiency, sufficiency, and predictability in predicting the structural EDPs of interest were identified at the base rock as: CAV and CAV5 for permanent settlement, PSA[ T STo] for total and flexural drift ratios, and PGV for rocking drift ratio.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for sliding displacement of slopes: an application in Turkey

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools such as Newmark’s sliding block (NSB) analysis are widely used to estimate the sliding displacement of slopes during earthquake shaking. Additionally, empirical models for predicting NSB displacement using single or multiple ground motion intensity measures based on global (e.g. NGA-W1 database, Chiou et al. 2008) or regional datasets are available. The objective of this study is to evaluate the compatibility of candidate NSB displacement prediction models for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) applications in Turkey using a comprehensive dataset of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Then, application of the most suitable NSB displacement prediction model in the vector-valued PSHA framework is demonstrated using the seismic source characterization models developed for Bolu-Gerede Region (in northwest Turkey). The results are presented in terms of the NSB displacement hazard curves and the hazard curves are evaluated for the influence of parameter selection (site conditions, yield acceleration, distance to the fault plane, and other seismic source model parameters) on the final hazard output.

Relations between Some Horizontal‐Component Ground‐Motion Intensity Measures Used in Practice

Various measures using the two horizontal components of recorded ground motions have been used in a number of studies that derive ground‐motion prediction equations and construct maps of shaking intensity. We update relations between a number of these measures, including those in Boore et al. (2006) and Boore (2010), using the large and carefully constructed global database of ground motions from crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed as part of the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center–Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 project. The ratios from the expanded datasets generally agree to within a few percent of the previously published ratios. We also provide some ratios that were not considered before, some of which will be useful in applications such as constructing ShakeMaps. Finally, we compare two important ratios with those from a large central and eastern North American database and from many records from subduction earthquakes in Japan and Taiwan. In general, the ratios from these regions are within several percent of those from crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. [Electronic Supplement:][1] Figures of ground‐motion intensity measure (GMIM) ratios, and csv files with average ratios and the coefficients of fits to the ratios. [1]: http://www.bssaonline.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1785/0120160250/-/DC1

Preliminary engineering analysis of the August 24th 2016, ML 6.0 central Italy earthquake records

An earthquake of estimated local magnitude (ML) 6.0 struck central Italy on the 24th of August (01:36:32 UTC) in the vicinity of Accumoli (close to Rieti, central Italy) initiating a long-lasting seismic sequence that also featured events of larger magnitude within a few months. The earthquake caused widespread building damage and around three-hundred fatalities. Ground motion was recorded by hundreds of seis-mic stations. This work uses accelerometric records for a preliminary discussion, from the earthquake en-gineering perspective, of strong motion caused by the earthquake. Peak and integral ground motion inten-sity measures, are presented. The response spectra at some select stations are analysed with respect to the code-mandated design actions for various return periods at the recording sites. Hazard disaggregation for different return periods is discussed referring to the site of the epicentre of the earthquake. Finally, some preliminary considerations are made concerning the impact of rupture propagation on near-source ground motion; i.e., the records are scanned for traces of pulse-like forward-directivity effects.

Implications of Intensity Measure Selection for Seismic Loss Assessment of 3-D Buildings

Present building-specific loss assessment state-of-art involves the convolution of seismic hazard and building seismic demands. The latter is conditioned on spectral acceleration, Sa( T1), at the building's first mode as the ground motion intensity measure (IM) and is typically estimated by carrying out nonlinear dynamic analyses on a two-dimensional (2-D) model. By new proposals on the use of improved IMs that can introduce higher fidelity, the accuracy in loss estimation becomes an open question. In reply, we offer a uniform basis for comparing the loss estimates for a set of eight different scalar and vector IMs whose hazard can be predicted with existing GMPEs. Despite all eight being legitimate IMs, and despite the consistent use of conditional spectrum record selection, we find large differences in the estimated loss hazard. This points to the large uncertainty still lingering when connecting hazard to loss. Among the IMs considered here, the vector IMs and at least a scalar average of spectral accelerations showed a remarkable stability in their predictions for the three-dimensional (3-D) buildings, pointing to a potential for reliable applications.

Simulation of large earthquakes and its implications on earthquake insurance rates: a case study in Bursa region (Turkey)

Ground motion intensity parameters of past and potential earthquakes are required for a range of purposes including earthquake insurance practice. In regions with no or sparse earthquake recordings, most of the available methods generate only peak ground motion parameters. For cases where full ground motion time histories are required, simulations that consider fault rupture processes become necessary. In this study, a major novel use of simulated ground motions is presented in insurance premium calculations which also require ground motion intensity measures that are not always available through observations. For this purpose, potential earthquakes in Bursa are simulated using stochastic finite-fault simulation method with dynamic corner frequency model. To ensure simulations with reliable synthetic ground motions, input parameters are derived from regional data. Regional model parameters are verified by comparisons against the observations as well as ground motion prediction equations. Next, a potential large magnitude event in Bursa is simulated. Distribution of peak ground motion parameters and time histories at selected locations are obtained. From these parameters, the corresponding Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) are estimated. Later, these MMIs are used as the main ground motion parameter in damage probability matrices (DPM). Return period of the scenario earthquake is obtained from the previous regional seismic hazard studies. Finally, insurance rates for Bursa region are determined with implementation of two new approaches in the literature. The probability of the scenario event and the expected mean damage ratios (MDR) from the corresponding DPMs are used, and the results are compared to Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) rates. Results show that insurance premiums can be effectively computed using simulated ground motions in the absence of real data.

A dominant vibration mode-based scalar ground motion intensity measure for single-layer reticulated domes

A suitable ground motion intensity measure (IM) plays a crucial role in the seismic performance assessment of a structure. In this paper, we introduce a scalar IM for use in evaluating the seismic response of single-layer reticulated domes. This IM is defined as the weighted geometric mean of the spectral acceleration ordinates at the periods of the dominant vibration modes of the structure considered, and the modal strain energy ratio of each dominant vibration mode is the corresponding weight. Its applicability and superiority to 11 other existing IMs are firstly investigated in terms of correlation with the nonlinear seismic response, efficiency and sufficiency using the results of incremental dynamic analyses which are performed for a typical single-layer reticulated dome. The hazard computability of this newly proposed IM is also briefly discussed and illustrated. A conclusion is drawn that this dominant vibration mode-based scalar IM has the characteristics of strong correlation, high efficiency, good sufficiency as well as hazard computability, and thereby is appropriate for use in the prediction of seismic response of single-layer reticulated domes.

Testing strong motion stations continuity of operation using random fields and intensity data

In the present work we perform a test of the continuity of operation of 76 strong motion stations selected for the validation and ranking of different Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment models within the framework of the project “Constraining observations into Seismic Hazard”. We exploit a web tool developed within the project to select, for each one of the 76 stations, the earthquakes that might have affected the station but were not recorded by it. To perform the check we produce potential “observations” at the test sites (i.e. the location of the stations that did not record the selected earthquakes), based on the modeling of spatially correlated random fields of a ground motion intensity measure (IM), constrained by the available instrumental and macroseisimic intensity observations. The proposed methodology allows one to produce, for each earthquake considered, a ground motion distribution at the sites of interest that can be used to check whether the given earthquake should have triggered or not the stations selected. Here the IM of interest is PGA, since this is the IM used to set the triggering threshold of the older analogue instruments. The actual threshold value used in the test is PGA = 0.01 g. More than the specific On–Off status of a station however, what is of practical relevance here is whether a potential observation is larger than the maximum acceleration available in the seismic history of the given station, since this is the actual observation that is used in the PSHA testing procedure.

Vector and Scalar IMs in Structural Response Estimation, Part I: Hazard Analysis

A realistic assessment of building economic losses and collapse induced by earthquakes requires the monitoring of several response measures, both story-specific and global. The prediction of such response measures benefits from using multiple ground motion intensity measures (IMs) that are, in general, correlated. To allow the inclusion of multiple IMs in the risk assessment process, it is necessary to have a practical tool that computes the vector-valued hazard of all such IMs at the building site. In this paper, vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (VPSHA) is implemented here as a post-processor to scalar PSHA results. A group of candidate scalar and vector IMs based on spectral acceleration values, ratios of spectral acceleration values, and spectral accelerations averaged over a period range are defined and their hazard evaluated. These IMs are used as structural response predictors of three-dimensional (3-D) models of reinforced concrete buildings described in a companion paper ( Kohrangi et al. 2016 ).

Vector and Scalar IMs in Structural Response Estimation, Part II: Building Demand Assessment

The advantages and disadvantages of using scalar and vector ground motion intensity measures (IMs) are discussed for the local, story-level seismic response assessment of three-dimensional (3-D) buildings. Candidate IMs are spectral accelerations, at a single period ( Sa) or averaged over a period range ( Sa avg). Consistent scalar and vector probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results were derived for each IM, as described in the companion paper in this issue ( Kohrangi et al. 2016 ). The response hazard curves were computed for three buildings with reinforced concrete infilled frames using the different IMs as predictors. Among the scalar IMs, Sa avg tends to be the best predictor of both floor accelerations and inter story drift ratios at practically any floor. However, there is an improvement in response estimation efficiency when employing vector IMs, specifically for 3-D buildings subjected to both horizontal components of ground motion. This improvement is shown to be most significant for a tall plan-asymmetric building.

A vector-valued ground motion intensity measure incorporating normalized spectral area

A vector-valued intensity measure is presented, which incorporates a relative measure represented by the normalized spectral area. The proposed intensity measure is intended to have high correlation with specific relative engineering demand parameters, which collectively can provide information regarding the damage state and collapse potential of the structure. Extensive dynamic analyses are carried out on a single-degree-of-freedom system with a modified Clough–Johnston hysteresis model, using a dataset of 40 ground motions, in order to investigate the proposed intensity measure characteristics. Response is expressed using the displacement ductility, and the normalized hysteretic energy, both of which are relative engineering demand parameters. Through regression analysis the correlation between the proposed intensity measure and the engineering demand parameters is evaluated. Its domain of applicability is investigated through parametric analysis, by varying the period and the strain-hardening stiffness. Desirable characteristics such as efficiency, sufficiency, and statistical independence are examined. The proposed intensity measure is contrasted to another one, with respect to its correlation to the engineering demand parameters. An approximate procedure for estimating the optimum normalized spectral area is also presented. It is demonstrated that the proposed intensity measure can be used in intensity-based assessments, and, with proper selection of ground motions, in scenario-based assessments.

Probabilistic seismic demand modeling of local level response parameters of an RC frame

Probabilistic methods to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC) frames are largely used in the context of performance based design and assessment, often describing the structural response using global engineering demand parameters (EDPs) such as the maximum interstory drift. While such EDPs are able to synthetically describe the structural behavior, the use of local EDPs is necessary to provide a more realistic and thorough description of failure mechanisms of low-ductility frames lacking seismic details. The objective of this paper is to investigate viable probabilistic seismic demand models of local EDPs, which may be used in developing fragility curves for the assessment of the low-ductility RC frames. The present work explores adequate regression models, probability distributions and uncertainty variation of the demand models. In addition, the adequacy of several ground motion intensity measures (IMs) to be used for predictive modeling of local EDPs is investigated. A realistic benchmark three-story RC frame representative of non-ductile buildings is used as a case study to identify key considerations.

A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation for Europe and the Middle East

A partially non-ergodic ground-motion prediction equation is estimated for Europe and the Middle East. Therefore, a hierarchical model is presented that accounts for regional differences. For this purpose, the scaling of ground-motion intensity measures is assumed to be similar, but not identical in different regions. This is achieved by assuming a hierarchical model, where some coefficients are treated as random variables which are sampled from an underlying global distribution. The coefficients are estimated by Bayesian inference. This allows one to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in the coefficients, and consequently in model predictions, in a rigorous way. The model is estimated based on peak ground acceleration data from nine different European/Middle Eastern regions. There are large differences in the amount of earthquakes and records in the different regions. However, due to the hierarchical nature of the model, regions with only few data points borrow strength from other regions with more data. This makes it possible to estimate a separate set of coefficients for all regions. Different regionalized models are compared, for which different coefficients are assumed to be regionally dependent. Results show that regionalizing the coefficients for magnitude and distance scaling leads to better performance of the models. The models for all regions are physically sound, even if only very few earthquakes comprise one region.

A spatial correlation model of peak ground acceleration and response spectra based on data of the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System

Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (Mw3.5–Mw5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5s) exceed 6km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a Mw7.2 scenario earthquake.

Seismic fragility assessment of highway bridges using support vector machines

Seismic fragility curves provide a powerful tool to assess the reliability of structures. However, conventional fragility analysis of structures comprising a large number of components requires enormous computational efforts. In this paper, the application of probabilistic support vector machines (PSVM) for the system fragility analysis of existing structures is proposed. It is demonstrated that support vector machine based fragility curves provide accurate predictions compared to rigorous methodologies such as component based fragilities developed by Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed method is applied to an existing bridge structure in order to develop fragility curves for serviceability and collapse limit states. In addition, the efficiency of using the PSVM method in the application of vector-valued ground motion intensity measures (IM) as well as traditional single-valued IM are investigated. The results obtained from an incremental dynamic analysis of the structure are used to train PSVMs. The application of PSVM in binary and multi-class classifications is used for the fragility analysis and reliability assessment of the bridge structure.

A one-step Newmark displacement model for probabilistic seismic slope displacement hazard analysis

Estimating the earthquake-induced sliding displacement is important in assessing the stability of slopes during earthquakes. Current Newmark displacement models generally use ground motion intensity measures (IMs) as predictors, and the uncertainties of predicting IM values need to be accounted for in probabilistic seismic slope displacement hazard analysis. This paper aims at developing a simple one-step predictive model for the Newmark displacement based on only four seismological parameters (moment magnitude, rupture distance, fault categories and shear wave velocity at top 30m Vs30) rather than any IMs. The predictive model is suitable for critical acceleration from 0.02g to 0.25g, covering most of the susceptible earthquake-induced landslide cases. First, the proposed one-step model is compared with some recently developed IM-based Newmark displacement models. It is found that both the median predictions and the variabilities of the proposed one-step model are in reasonable agreement with those obtained by the IM-based models. Second, several hypothetical slopes are used to compare the slope displacement hazard curves between the one-step model and the IM-based models. The new model can be used as an alternative method for a fully probabilistic analysis of the earthquake-induced slope displacements. In addition, spatial correlations of the Newmark displacement residuals are also investigated using strong-motion data from the Northridge and Chi-Chi earthquakes.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using a new ground motion intensity measure

The main objective of this work is to compute the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a region of Mexico using a new ground motion intensity measure which is based on the spectral acceleration and a parameter proxy of the spectral shape named Np. The motivation of using this new ground motion intensity measure is because recently it has demonstrated its potential in predicting the response of buildings subjected to earthquakes. In fact, it was demonstrated that intensity measures based on Np are more efficient compared with other parameter of the literature. It is important to mention that this is the first time that a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is performed using this new intensity measurement.

Development of a Risk Framework for Forecasting Earthquake Losses in Port Systems

Ports play a critical role in transportation infrastructure but are vulnerable to seismic hazards. Downtime and reduced throughput from seismic damage in ports results in significant business interruption losses for port stakeholders. Managing risks from systemwide disruptions resulting from earthquake damage has been studied as a central element of a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) program. Presented are the concepts and methods developed for the seismic risk management of a portwide system of berths. The framework used to calculate port losses is discussed, particularly the use of spatially correlated ground motion intensity measures that estimate damage to pile-supported wharves and container cranes, the repair costs and downtimes subsequently determined via repair models for both types of structures, and the impact on cargo handling operations calculated via logistical models of the port system. Results, expressed in the form of loss exceedance curves, are calculated.

Seismic Risk Assessment of Nonengineered Residential Buildings in Developing Countries

AbstractA previous study by the authors provides an overview of existing seismic risk assessment approaches and available seismic fragility information and highlights the lack of relevant information for nonengineered residential buildings. The current paper proposes a procedure for developing empirical seismic fragility curves for nonengineered residential buildings using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) seismic ground motion and shaking intensity maps presented in a geographic information system (GIS) format, to overcome the lack of ground motion recordings. The proposed procedure has been applied to a damage data set collected in Bantul Regency, Indonesia, in the aftermath of the May 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Fragility curves for nonengineered single-story unreinforced masonry (URM) residential buildings have been derived using the damage data set for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and pseudospectral acceleration (PSA) as the ground motion intensity measures. The developed fragility curves indic...

Intensity measures for the assessment of the seismic response of buried steel pipelines

To estimate the demand of structures, investigating the correlation between engineering demand parameters and intensity measures (IMs) is of prime importance in performance-based earthquake engineering. In the present paper, the efficiency and sufficiency of some IMs for evaluating the seismic response of buried steel pipelines are investigated. Six buried pipe models with different diameter to thickness and burial depth to diameter ratios, and different soil properties are subjected to an ensemble of 30 far-field earthquake ground motion records. The records are scaled to several intensity levels and a number of incremental dynamic analyses are performed. The approach used in the analyses is finite element modeling. Pipes are modeled using shell elements while equivalent springs and dashpots are used for modeling the soil. Several ground motion intensity measures are used to investigate their efficiency and sufficiency in assessing the seismic demand and capacity of the buried steel pipelines in terms of engineering demand parameter measured by the peak axial compressive strain at the critical section of the pipe. Using the regression analysis, efficient and sufficient IMs are proposed for two groups of buried pipelines separately. The first one is a group of pipes buried in soils with low stiffness and the second one is those buried in soils with higher stiffness. It is concluded that for the first group of pipes, \(\sqrt {{\text{VSI}}[\upomega_{1} ({\text{PGD}} + {\text{RMS}}_{\text{d}} )]}\) followed by root mean square of displacement (RMSd) are the optimal IMs based on both efficiency and sufficiency; and for the second group, the only optimal IM is PGD2/RMSd.