Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for sliding displacement of slopes: an application in Turkey

Abstract

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the major sources of earthquake hazards in near fault regions. Simplified tools such as Newmark’s sliding block (NSB) analysis are widely used to estimate the sliding displacement of slopes during earthquake shaking. Additionally, empirical models for predicting NSB displacement using single or multiple ground motion intensity measures based on global (e.g. NGA-W1 database, Chiou et al. 2008) or regional datasets are available. The objective of this study is to evaluate the compatibility of candidate NSB displacement prediction models for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) applications in Turkey using a comprehensive dataset of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. Then, application of the most suitable NSB displacement prediction model in the vector-valued PSHA framework is demonstrated using the seismic source characterization models developed for Bolu-Gerede Region (in northwest Turkey). The results are presented in terms of the NSB displacement hazard curves and the hazard curves are evaluated for the influence of parameter selection (site conditions, yield acceleration, distance to the fault plane, and other seismic source model parameters) on the final hazard output.