Transferable Vote Research Articles

The Strategic Use of Legislative Voting Procedures

Legislative votes can be taken by roll call—noting the position of each individual member—or by some form of indication (sitting or standing, shouting yea or nay, etc.)—noting only an aggregate outcome. Cameral rules define one method of voting as the standard operating procedure and how to invoke any alternative voting methods. We develop a series of hypotheses related to position taking to explain why, when procedures would typically lead to a vote taken by indication, legislators choose to vote by roll call—a means that makes it much easier for actors outside the chamber to observe the positions taken by individual legislators and partisan blocs. With data from Argentina and Mexico, we test these hypotheses regarding the strategic choice of vote procedures and their relationship to observed party unity.

Disproportionality and Party System Fragmentation: Does Assembly Size Matter?

The article examines the impact of assembly size on the degree of disproportionality and party system fragmentation. The hypothesis is as follows: assembly size has a negative effect on the degree of disproportionality and a positive effect on the effective number of parties in systems with single-member districts—in proportional electoral systems, by contrast, such a pattern does not exist. In PR systems, notably the average effective threshold supersedes assembly size in explaining the degree of disproportionality and the effective number of parties. Electoral thresholds, ordinal ballots and apparentement, which also have some impact on disproportionality and party system fragmentation in proportional elections, are absent in systems with single-member districts (with the exception of ordinal ballots in alternative vote systems). Moreover, the district magnitude does not vary between electoral districts and countries. Therefore, assembly size is a significant factor in majoritarian systems. The empirical analysis of 550 elections in democratic countries provides support for the hypothesis.

Voting on Electoral Reform: A Comparative Perspective on the Alternative Vote Referendum in the United Kingdom

Referendums on electoral systems are relatively rare. In most countries changes to the electoral system are enacted through the legislatures. The British referendum in May 2011 is thus one of the rare examples. In this article it is shown that the apparently idiosyncratic factors in the referendum were consistent with general trends identified in other referendums. While the media focused on the harshness of the campaign, the referendum also resulted in surprising coalitions between long‐term foes, thus suggesting that the referendum contributed to cross‐party cooperation rarely seen in a majoritarian system like that of Great Britain.

Vote Transfers, Thwarted Voters and Newcomers in the 2009 Presidential Runoff in Romania

Abstract This article investigates the role of thwarted voters and newcomers in setting the result of the December 6th, 2009 presidential runoff in Romania. For this purpose it employs panel survey data from the Romanian Election Studies, collected across three waves: pre-election, between the two rounds, post-election. Initially, it draws a picture of the main evolutions in turnout and vote between the first and the second round, with a special emphasis on vote transfers and risks associated to turnout and pro-winner overreporting. Then it analyzes the thwarted voters and their rationalities of making second-order electoral choices in the presidential runoff. The influence of campaign developments and long-term party/candidate preferences is assessed. Finally, the article investigates the profile of newcomers (people only voting in the runoff) and the mechanisms of political mobilisation in their case. A special attention is given to how newcomers make the electoral choice in the presidential runoff and to the influence of the campaign developments on that choice.

The coalition and constitutional reform

The author considers the impact of the coalition government formed in Britain in May 2010 on the process of constitutional reform. Looking at the formation of a peacetime coalition following a hung Parliament as a constitutional innovation in itself and reviewing the changes proposed by that government in the areas of Parliamentary voting and equalising of constituencies, fixed-term Parliaments and referendum on the alternative vote method of election. Article by Vernon Bogdanor (Research Professor, Institute of Contemporary History, King’s College London; Emeritus Gresham Professor of Law; Fellow of the British Academy) based on a lecture delivered at the IALS on May 23, 2011 - published in Amicus Curiae - Journal of the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies and its Society for Advanced Legal Studies. The Journal is produced by the Society for Advanced Legal Studies at the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, University of London.

Britain Says NO: Voting in the AV Ballot Referendum

The purpose of this paper is to explain why voters made the choices that they did in Britains Alternative Vote (AV) referendum on 5 May 2011. The paper utilises four alternative theoretical models to analyse individual voting behaviour. They are described as the cost–benefit, cognitive engagement, heuristics and mobilisation models. The explanatory power of these models is investigated using a large survey data set gathered in the AV referendum study conducted in conjunction with the British Election Study. Multivariate analyses show that all four models contribute to explaining why some people voted in favour of electoral reform, with the cost–benefit model exhibiting particularly strong effects. The conclusion discusses public reactions to the referendum and possible implications of the decisive rejection of electoral reform after a campaign characterised by disaffection and disengagement.

The two-party system under alternative voting procedures

Countries that elect their policy-makers by means of Plurality Voting tend to have a two-party system. This observation can be explained by the strategic behavior of voters. This article derives two broad classes of voting procedures under which strategic voting behavior induces a two-party system under standard assumptions on voter preferences. One class consists of the voting procedures with unique top-score, i.e., under which a voter can cast a top-score vote for only one candidate (e.g., Plurality Voting, Borda Count). The other class consists of the voting procedures that permit truncated ballots, i.e., under which voters do not have to cast all their votes (e.g., Approval Voting). This analysis suggests that the key for strategic voting behavior to induce a two-party system is that voters can always cast a different score for the two candidates they rank first and second on their ballots.

On the performance of voting systems in spatial voting simulations

We study the performance of voting systems in terms of minimizing the overall social disutility of making a collective choice in an univariate voting space with ideological voting and perfect information. In order to obtain a distribution of the performance indicator for each of the 12 systems chosen for this study—Baldwin’s Method, Black’s Method, The Borda Count, Bucklin’s Grand Junction System, Coombs’ Method, Dodgson’s System, Instant Run-Off Voting, Plurality, Simpson’s MinMax, Tideman’s Ranked Pairs, Schulze’s Beatpath Method, and Two-Round Majority—we simulate elections using an Agent-Based Computational approach under several different distributions for voters and candidates positioning, with up to 15 available candidates. At each iteration, voters generate complete and strict ordinal utility functions over the set of available candidates, based on which each voting system computes a winner. We define the performance of a system in terms of its capability of choosing among the available candidates the one that minimizes aggregate voter disutility. As expected, the results show an overall dominance of Condorcet completion methods over the traditional and more widely used voting systems, regardless of the distributions of voter and candidate positions.

The Death of a Miserable Little Compromise: The Alternative Vote Referendum

John Curtice analyses the AV campaign, the result and the implications for electoral reform of the vote against AV. On 5 May, the UK electorate voted overwhelmingly against adopting the Alternative Vote system. John Curtice analyses the AV campaign, the result and considers the implications of the referendum on the future of electoral reform in Britain.

Classifying short genomic fragments from novel lineages using composition and homology

BackgroundThe assignment of taxonomic attributions to DNA fragments recovered directly from the environment is a vital step in metagenomic data analysis. Assignments can be made using rank-specific classifiers, which assign reads to taxonomic labels from a predetermined level such as named species or strain, or rank-flexible classifiers, which choose an appropriate taxonomic rank for each sequence in a data set. The choice of rank typically depends on the optimal model for a given sequence and on the breadth of taxonomic groups seen in a set of close-to-optimal models. Homology-based (e.g., LCA) and composition-based (e.g., PhyloPythia, TACOA) rank-flexible classifiers have been proposed, but there is at present no hybrid approach that utilizes both homology and composition.ResultsWe first develop a hybrid, rank-specific classifier based on BLAST and Naïve Bayes (NB) that has comparable accuracy and a faster running time than the current best approach, PhymmBL. By substituting LCA for BLAST or allowing the inclusion of suboptimal NB models, we obtain a rank-flexible classifier. This hybrid classifier outperforms established rank-flexible approaches on simulated metagenomic fragments of length 200 bp to 1000 bp and is able to assign taxonomic attributions to a subset of sequences with few misclassifications. We then demonstrate the performance of different classifiers on an enhanced biological phosphorous removal metagenome, illustrating the advantages of rank-flexible classifiers when representative genomes are absent from the set of reference genomes. Application to a glacier ice metagenome demonstrates that similar taxonomic profiles are obtained across a set of classifiers which are increasingly conservative in their classification.ConclusionsOur NB-based classification scheme is faster than the current best composition-based algorithm, Phymm, while providing equally accurate predictions. The rank-flexible variant of NB, which we term ε-NB, is complementary to LCA and can be combined with it to yield conservative prediction sets of very high confidence. The simple parameterization of LCA and ε-NB allows for tuning of the balance between more predictions and increased precision, allowing the user to account for the sensitivity of downstream analyses to misclassified or unclassified sequences.

Comment on David Sanders et al., 'Simulating the Effects of the Alternative Vote in the 2010 UK General Election'

Sanders, Clarke, Stewart and Whiteley (2011) simulate the 2010 election under the Alternative Vote (AV). Their results show large gains for the Liberal Democrats. I alter their methodology to make the estimation of voters' first preferences under AV more accurate. With this change, the Liberal Democrats gains are considerably smaller, on the order of 10 seats or less. Bootstrap estimation shows that a Lib-Lab majority coalition would probably not have been feasible under AV.

Realities Mar Instant Runoff Voting Flaws and Benefits of IRV

After the United States' 2000 Presidential election, in which Ralph Nader’s candidacy caused G.W.Bush to win rather than Al Gore, a Maryland nonprofit organization led a movement to adopt the instant runoff voting (IRV) method of counting rank choice ballots. IRV was proposed to solve the spoiler effect in the case where a minor third candidate siphons off enough votes to cause the winner of an election to be the second most popular candidate. Presidential elections in 1844, 1848, 1884, 1912, and 2000 were likely not won by the most popular candidate. However, instant runoff voting does not have much academic support. This paper examines a list of IRV’s flaws and benefits, and concludes that IRV threatens the fairness, accuracy, timeliness, and economy of U.S. elections. Scholars have proposed several other alternative electoral methods that preserve existing voter rights and improve upon the plurality method. What features should we look for in an alternative electoral method?

The Two-Party System under Alternative Voting Procedures

Countries that elect their policy-makers by means of Plurality Voting tend to have a two-party system. This observation can be explained by the strategic behavior of voters. The present paper derives two broad classes of voting procedures under which strategic voting behavior induces a two-party system under standard assumptions on voter preferences. One class consists of the voting procedures with unique top-score, i.e., under which a voter can cast a top-score vote for only one candidate (e.g., Plurality Voting, Borda Count). The other class consists of the voting procedures that permit truncated ballots, i.e., under which voters do not have to cast all their votes (e.g., Approval Voting). The present analysis suggests that the key for strategic voting behavior to induce a two-party system is that voters can always cast a different score for the two candidates they rank first and second on their ballots.

Analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) for the selection of solvents in early stages of pharmaceutical process development

The AHP (analytical hierarchy process) mathematical model was implemented into a tool aimed to aid the selection of solvents in the early stages of pharmaceutical process development. The tool assesses environmental implications using the information available in the early stages of development. Solvent properties, characteristics, and their relationship with common operations are exploited. In order to make the approach user-friendly, the tool was incorporated into a VB.NET application. The user obtains a ranked list of potentially good solvents. The result can be used as a starting point in solvent selection. The chemist can explore implications of the solvent selected not only from synthesis perspective, but also from an HSE perspective. A case study is presented for the replacement of benzene, where through a series of steps the chemist inputs ideal solvent characteristics and the importance of each characteristic in the decision. In this case solvent replacement is based in finding a solvent with the same solubility behaviour, but with less toxicity problems and at low cost. The tool considers a wide pool of solvents in a short time and produces ranked choices according to the chemist needs; taking account of both synthesis and HSE perspectives.

The Alternative Vote

Michael Pinto-Duschinsky argues that proposed changes to the first-past-the-post system run counter to the spirit of British democracy, while Iain McLean and Guy Lodge believe that AV will make MPs more accountable. The coalition government is holding a referendum in May on whether to change the system for electing MPs from first-past-the-post to the Alternative Vote. Michael Pinto-Duschinsky argues that the proposed changes to the electoral system run counter to the spirit of British democracy and should be resisted. The Alternative Vote will promote voter choice and make MPs more accountable to their constituents, say Iain McLean and Guy Lodge. In a world defined by declining tribalism this change to the electoral system should be supported.

How Unusual is the United Kingdom Coalition (and What are the Chances of It Happening Again)?

This article draws upon insights from theoretical and empirical studies of coalition behaviour in multiparty politics to examine the formation of the United Kingdom coalition following the general election of 6 May 2010. It argues that the formation of the Conservative‐Liberal Democrat coalition is not unusual in historical terms or in the context of contemporary European politics; and that although it is a break from the more recent pattern of postwar British politics it nevertheless does conform to expectations in the light of the coalition literature. The article also provides a comparative analysis of the impact of Britain's ‘First‐Past‐The‐Post’ (FPTP) electoral system on party competition and an examination of the performance of the Alternative Vote (AV) system and argues that if the United Kingdom retains FPTP then a return to single‐party government in 2015 is highly likely; and it is not inevitable that the introduction of AV would significantly advantage the Liberal Democrats.

Using Quality Function Deployment and Analytical Hierarchy Process for material selection of Body-In-White

Presented manuscript discusses the usage of multi-attribute decision making tools to assist in the material selection for vehicular structures; mainly the automotive Body-In-White (BiW) panels at the conceptual design stage using Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The main advantage of using QFD and AHP is their abilities to rank choices in the order of their effectiveness in meeting the functional objective. AHP discriminates between competing options where interrelated objectives need to be met; AHP is based on straightforward mathematical formulations. QFD on the other side is a customer focused method that usually starts by collecting customer needs and tries to integrate these needs into the product. In this study, following classes of engineering materials are analyzed; forming grade Bake Harden-able steel (BH), Dual Phase steel (DP), High Strength Low Alloy Steel (HSLA), Martenistic steel, Aluminum 5xxx, 6xxx sheets, Magnesium sheets, Titanium sheets, Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) and High Density Polyethylene (HDPE). The presented study showed that the different grades of steel gained the first ranks in the selection process for almost most of the BiW panels; however other alternatives could work in trade-off with cost and manufacturability.

Who Converts to Vote-By-Mail? Evidence From a Field Experiment

Over the past decade, permanent absentee voting, or “Vote-by-Mail” (VBM), has become increasingly popular. More than half the U.S. states offer their citizens the option to vote by mail. Yet until now, we have known relatively little about which voters are most likely to use this option when it is available, and what (if anything) can be done to convert voters effectively to permanent VBM status. In this paper, we address both these issues. We conduct a field experiment with all registered voters in California’s San Joaquin County as our subjects, where a randomly chosen treatment group receives postcards – a low-cost conversion option – offering them the chance to easily obtain permanent VBM status. We supplement this experiment with a survey of a subset of these voters, allowing identification of what types of voters are most likely to convert to VBM. Though the low-cost postcard treatment did significantly increase conversion to permanent VBM status, this effect shows up at disproportionately high rates among groups that already vote at higher rates.

The Political Supply in the 2007 French Presidential Elections: An Analysis Based on Experimental Data

The aim of this paper is to propose a picture of French political supply in 2007 as perceived by voters, with no a priori ideas regarding the relevant political dimensions. Our study is based on experimental data collected during the French presidential elections on April 22nd, 2007. Two alternative voting methods were tested: the approval voting rule and the evaluation voting (2,1,0) rule. We provide an extensive analysis of the political supply in terms of simple political characteristics, derived from an MCA on the ballot data: groups of candidates are associated with different political positions with no a priori conjectures about political programs, societal trends, or candidates' valence.

Inter‐Related Summer Vacation Choices by Swedish Tourists

The aim of our study was to investigate whether and how different vacation choices vary with respect to a number of attributes and whether there are differences in this respect depending on how familiar the tourist is with the destination. In a web‐based survey conducted in the fall of 2007, 681 Swedish residents (response rate 15%) retrospectively reported their vacation trips during the summer. The results warrant the conclusion that it is possible to rank choices of destination, departure date, primary activity, and travel mode according to primacy, importance, inflexibility, and impact on other choices. However, the different measures did not converge in identifying an invariant order of the choices. Individual and situational factors may play important roles for the order. A sequential decision‐making process was still identified for the majority of the respondents and the examined choices were to a large extent made before departure. Familiarity with the destination only had an effect on the importance and inflexibility the respondents experienced in their destination choice. Both managerial and practical implications of the findings are discussed.