Transferable Vote Research Articles

Citizens’ preferences about voting rules: self-interest, ideology, and sincerity

This paper studies the determinants of citizens’ preferences for different electoral systems. We use data collected through a large internet-based quasi-experiment carried out during the 2012 French presidential election where we invited subjects to cast a vote for real candidates according to four voting rules: two-round (the official system), one-round, the alternative vote, and approval voting. After voting with each of the four voting rules, subjects were also asked to report which system they liked the most. We find that voters prefer systems that are beneficial to the candidate they prefer, that their preference for the official two-round system (weakly) depends on how they actually vote under this system, and that right-wing voters are more supportive of voting rules under which one can vote for only one candidate (one-round and two-round).

A group package recommender based on learning group preferences, multi-criteria decision analysis, and voting

This paper proposes a group package recommender framework, which provides recommendations on dynamically defined packages of products and services. It focuses on extending recommender systems in three ways: (1) to consider composite, rather than atomic, recommendations; (2) to deal with multiple, rather than single, criteria associated with recommendations; and, most importantly; (3) to support groups of users rather than individual users. This framework is based on: (1) defining the space of alternatives; (2) eliciting the utility function for each individual decision maker; (3) estimating the group utility function; (4) using the group utility function to find an optimal recommendation alternative; (5) constructing a set of diverse recommendations which contain the optimal recommendation alternative; and (6) applying alternative voting methods from social choice theories, to refine the recommendations. To evaluate the group recommender performance under each applied voting method, a preliminary experimental real-world user study is conducted, which shows that the proposed framework is able to produce a small set of recommendations that retain near optimal recommendations in terms of precision and recall.

A Novel Semi-Supervised Land Cover Classification Technique of Remotely Sensed Images

This research article addresses the problem of land-cover classification from the multi-spectral remotely sensed images using a novel self-training based semi-supervised learning (SSL) technique. The proposed system, instead of using a single classifier, builds an ensemble of classifiers with the hope that the ensemble system will have a lesser generalization error than any of its members. Each component classifier is trained independently using the proposed self-training approach on different training sub-sets and their predictions on test samples are combined using a new instant run-off voting (IRV) based classifier combination method. Each training subset consists of a few labeled samples and a comparatively large number of unlabeled data items. The cluster-and-label method for self-training has been adopted here considering the support vector machines (SVM) as the supervised learner and minimum spanning tree based clustering. A normalized histogram intersection kernel has been proposed which has shown to outperform the state-of-the-art kernel functions in terms of the SVM generalization accuracy. A novel cluster validity index specifically for graph based clustering has also been introduced to access the quality of the clustering. The proposed training method has the advantage that it can find classes for which the labeled training data are unavailable initially. A number of multi-spectral images have been considered for the experimental evaluation and a comparison with some of the well-established techniques from the literature has confirmed the superiority of the proposed classifier system.

Multiple votes, multiple candidacies and polarization

We use the citizen-candidate model to study the differential incentives that alternative voting rules provide for candidate entry, and their effect on policy polarization. In particular, we show that allowing voters to cast multiple votes leads to equilibria which support multiple candidate clusters. These equilibria are more polarized than those obtained under the Plurality Rule. This result differs from the one obtained in the existing literature, where the set of candidates is exogenous. Thus, our paper contributes to the scholarly literature as well as public debate on the merits of using different voting rules by highlighting the importance of endogenous candidacy.

Metody głosowania w okręgach jednomandatowych i ich własności

The paper starts with the definitions of five major voting methods that can be applied in single-member districts. Then the political consequences of single-member districts are discussed. The special attention is paid to those consequences that are considered negative and to potential ways of neutralizing them. The next section compares selected subtle effects of using simple majority rule versus alternative vote. The final section reviews methods that mix proportional representation and majoritarian components.

Multiple Votes, Multiple Candidacies and Polarization

We use the citizen-candidate model to study the differential incentives that alternative voting rules provide for candidate entry, and their effect on policy polarization. In particular, we show that allowing voters to cast multiple votes leads to equilibria which support multiple candidate clusters. These equilibria are more polarized than those obtained under the Plurality Rule. This result differs from the one obtained in the existing literature, where the set of candidates is exogenous. Thus, our paper contributes to the scholarly literature as well as public debate on the merits of using different voting rules by highlighting the importance of endogenous candidacy.

WHEN IT PAYS TO LOSE: THE FUNDAMENTAL FLAW OF THE POSITIVE VOTE TRANSFER ELECTORAL SYSTEM

This comment shows that the positive vote transfer (PVT) system—deemed a preferable alternative to the mixed-member proportional electoral system—suffers from a fundamental flaw. The problem with this system combining elections within single-seat districts and the allocation of compensation seats is that parties may find it rational to try to lose district races in order to gain greater parliamentary representation. The PVT system may suffer from strategic manipulation and in the process can cause a vote cast for a party to be detrimental to its success. The general lesson is that in multitier electoral systems the relative value of votes in different tiers may induce strategic behaviour notwithstanding the number of votes at the voter's disposal.

The Determinants of Electoral Volatility

The last presidential elections gave rise numerous questions and doubts – particularly in the scientific and media environments – regarding the conditions for electoral behaviours in Poles, as signalled by the results achieved by particular candidates. The media discourse abounded in more or less definite statements regarding voter turnout data for particular population groups, the destabilization of the electorate’s political preferences and the phenomenon of the transfer of votes in between the supporters of particular candidates, both in the historical approach and in the course of the election campaign. The intensity and temperature of these discussions were indicative of the fact how poorly this area is penetrated empirically

Temporal Orthogonal Projection Inversion for EMI Sensing of UXO

We present a new approach for inverting time-domain electromagnetic data to recover the location and magnetic dipole polarizations of a limited number of buried objects. We form the multichannel electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensor data as a spatial-temporal response matrix (STRM). The rows of the STRM correspond to measurements sampled at different time channels from one sensor and the columns correspond to measurements sampled at the same time channel from different sensors. The singular value decomposition of the STRM produces the left and right singular vectors that are related to the sensor and the temporal spaces, respectively. If the effective rank of the STRM is r, then the first r singular vectors span signal subspaces (SS), and the remaining singular vectors span the noise subspaces. The original data are projected onto the SS, and the temporal orthogonal projection inversion (TOPI) uses these data in a nonlinear inverse problem to solve for source locations of the objects. The polarizations of the targets are then obtained by solving a linear optimization problem in the original data domain. We present theoretical and numerical analyses to investigate the singular value system of the STRM and the sensitivity of the TOPI to the size of an SS. Only a few subspace vectors are required to generate locations of the objects. The results are insensitive to the exact choice of rank, and this differs from usual methods that involve selecting the number of time channels to be used in the inversion and carefully estimating associated uncertainties. The proposed approach is evaluated using the synthetic and real multistatic EMI data.

Modeling political performance of Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties in Turkey

Turkish experience with Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties spanning nearly half a century is studied to understand the factors that caused their transformation and determined their political performance, both while in office and in opposition. A vote equation built, which takes into account all of the key factors mentioned in the economic voting literature, shows that during their rule such parties suffer much less due to strategic voting than other parties but they face a higher cost of ruling. Also, they are affected by the economy in a similar way or even more than other incumbent parties. Moderation in Islamist and Islamist-rooted parties generated through their participation in the parliament and governments, combined with center-right parties deserting their traditional anti-establishment positions, and getting tainted by corruption and incompetence led to massive vote transfers during the last decade from the latter to the former.

Czy alternatywne metody głosowania i inne ułatwienia wyborcze mogą rozwiązać problem przymusowej absencji wyborczej? Refleksje i spostrzeżenia osoby niepełnosprawnej w świetle wyborów samorządowych 2014

The fundamental claim which accompanied the implementation of alternative voting methods into the Polish Law was the guarantee of the fullest realization of the universal suffrage. The current regulations of the Electoral Code allow people with disabilities to vote by mail or by proxy. This deviation from the rule of voting personally in a polling station and enfranchising people with disabilities is a clear sign of the adaptation of Polish reality to Western European standards. The enactment of the law and implementation of additional legal solutions are only the first step to a greater change. The current challenges of electoral law are both perfecting the new voting methods and educating voters to compel them to vote; that is to exercise their constitutional privilege.

Problematyka lokali wyborczych dostosowanych do potrzeb wyborców niepełnosprawnych w wyborach samorządowych 2014 roku w świetle działań Rzecznika Praw Obywatelskich

Despite the introduction of alternative voting procedures in the Polish electoral system, a significant part of disabled or elderly voters declare that they are willing to vote in a traditional way — at the polling station. The survey carried out in March 2014 shows that over 80% of respondents indicated voting at polling stations as the preferred way of voting in an election. A very important issue is the appropriate adaptation of polling stations to the needs of voters with limited mobility. The Electoral Code significantly increases the number of polling stations adapted to the needs of people with disabilities. The head of the commune shall adapt at least 1∕5 of stations by 31 December 2014. However, as indicated by the results of the inspections carried out by the Ombudsman (Human Rights Defender) in November 2014, the vast majority of polling stations designated by the commune as adapted to the needs of people with disabilities were in fact not accessible for this group of voters. At 179 polling stations inspected by employees of the Office of the Ombudsman shortcomings were noted in 151, which accounted for 84% of all buildings visited. It is therefore necessary to take extensive measures for the real fulfilment of the requirements specified by law. A significant proportion of the voters surveyed expressed the view that of all the possible facilities, free transport of voters to the polling station would be the most useful in the next election.

Ballot (and voter) “exhaustion” under Instant Runoff Voting: An examination of four ranked-choice elections

Some proponents of municipal election reform advocate for the adoption of Instant Runoff Voting (IRV), a method that allows voters to rank multiple candidates according to their preferences. Although supporters claim that IRV is superior to the traditional primary-runoff election system, research on IRV is limited. We analyze data taken from images of more than 600,000 ballots cast by voters in four recent local elections. We document a problem known as ballot “exhaustion,” which results in a substantial number of votes being discarded in each election. As a result of ballot exhaustion, the winner in all four of our cases receives less than a majority of the total votes cast, a finding that raises serious concerns about IRV and challenges a key argument made by the system's proponents.

International scientists' priorities for research on pharmaceutical and personal care products in the environment

Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are widely discharged into the environment via diverse pathways. The effects of PPCPs in the environment have potentially important human and ecosystem health implications, so credible, salient, and legitimate scientific evidence is needed to inform regulatory and policy responses that address potential risks. A recent "big questions" exercise with participants largely from North America identified 22 important research questions around the risks of PPCP in the environment that would help address the most pressing knowledge gaps over the next decade. To expand that analysis, we developed a survey that was completed by 535 environmental scientists from 57 countries, of whom 49% identified environmental or analytical chemistry as their primary disciplinary background. They ranked the 22 original research questions and submitted 171 additional candidate research questions they felt were also of high priority. Of the original questions, the 3 perceived to be of highest importance related to: 1) the effects of long-term exposure to low concentrations of PPCP mixtures on nontarget organisms, 2) effluent treatment methods that can reduce the effects of PPCPs in the environment while not increasing the toxicity of whole effluents, and 3) the assessment of the environmental risks of metabolites and environmental transformation products of PPCPs. A question regarding the role of cultural perspectives in PPCP risk assessment was ranked as the lowest priority. There were significant differences in research orientation between scientists who completed English and Chinese language versions of the survey. We found that the Chinese respondents were strongly orientated to issues of managing risk profiles, effluent treatment, residue bioavailability, and regional assessment. Among English language respondents, further differences in research orientation were associated with respondents' level of consistency when ranking the survey's 15 comparisons. There was increasing emphasis on the role of various other stressors relative to PPCPs and on risk prioritization as internal decision making consistency increased. Respondents' consistency in their ranking choices was significantly and positively correlated with SETAC membership, authors' number of publications, and longer survey completion times. Our research highlighted international scientists' research priorities and should help inform decisions about the type of hazard and risk-based research needed to best inform decisions regarding PPCPs in the environment. Disciplinary training of a scientist or engineer appears to strongly influence preferences for research priorities to understand PPCPs in the environment. Selection of participants and the depth and breadth of research prioritization efforts thus have potential effects on the outcomes of research prioritization exercises. Further elucidation of how patterns of research priority vary between academic and government scientists and between scientists and other government and stakeholders would be useful in the future and provide information that helps focus scientific effort on socially relevant challenges relating to PPCPs in the environment. It also suggests the potential for future collaborative research between industry, government, and academia on environmental contaminants beyond PPCPs.

Is the Future of Electoral Reform Local?

AbstractThe Electoral Reform Society has recently published two reports putting the case for electoral reform in local government. These suggest acceptance, in the wake of defeat in the 2011 Alternative Vote referendum, that the group's ultimate goal of change to the Westminster electoral system is unlikely to be fulfilled soon and that a more gradual strategy is therefore needed. This paper examines this shift by asking three questions. First, is Westminster electoral reform really a dead letter? Second, is local electoral reform more likely—and, if so, just how much more likely? Third, would local electoral reform matter in itself?

Writing the Rules to Rank the Candidates: Examining the Impact of Instant-Runoff Voting on Racial Group Turnout in San Francisco Mayoral Elections

Instant-Runoff Voting (IRV/RCV) is a relatively new reform to the rules of voting and elections that has been adopted by several cities. The impact of IRV/RCV balloting on racial group voter turnout in urban elections has not been subject to rigorous empirical analysis. In order to evaluate the relationship between IRV/RCV and voter turnout, I analyze precinct-level racial group voter turnout rates in five San Francisco mayoral elections from 1995 to 2011. I find significant declines in turnout under IRV/RCV rules, especially among Black voters. Variation in racial group turnout is best explained by factors related to candidate race and racial group competition. In addition, I find that IRV/RCV exacerbates turnout disparities between older and younger groups in the population and between those with high education compared to those with low education.

Empirical social choice: an introduction

The year 2012 was the 30th anniversary of William H. Riker’s modern classic Liberalism against populism (1982) and is marked by the present special issue. In this introduction, we seek to identify some core elements and evaluate the current status of the Rikerian research program and its empirical applications. Special attention is given to three phenomena and their possible empirical manifestations: The instability of social choice in the form of (1) the possibility of majority cycles, (2) the non-robustness of social choices given alternative voting methods, and (3) the possibility of various forms of manipulation of the decisions (heresthetics). These topics are then connected to the contributions to the current special issue.

Overvoting and the Equality of Voice under Instant-Runoff Voting in San Francisco

In 2004 San Francisco began using Instant-Runoff Voting for local elections. Early analyses revealed that after its inaugural use the rate at which voters ranked candidates dropped dramatically, and disqualifying errors on the ballots were more common in neighborhoods where more African-American and foreign-born citizens reside (Neely and Cook 2008). We extend the inquiry over time, examine other types of elections, and refine the methodology. Are some voters more than others able to exercise the franchise in these elections and, if so, what does that imply for the equality of political voice? We find no evidence that ranking candidates is in decline. Overvotes are more common in IRV than plurality contests, but such errors appear to be a function of complexity in general and not IRV per se. While they occur disproportionately in precincts with more African-American residents, and are often more likely where Latino, elderly, foreign-born, and less wealthy citizens reside, the pattern of overvoting is similar in both IRV and non-IRV contests. We discuss what these results imply for San Francisco and other jurisdictions using or considering similar election systems.

WHICH MIXED-MEMBER PROPORTIONAL ELECTORAL FORMULA FITS YOU BEST? ASSESSING THE PROPORTIONALITY PRINCIPLE OF POSITIVE VOTE TRANSFER SYSTEMS

Mixed-member proportional systems (MMP) are a family of electoral systems which combine district-based elections with a proportional seat allocation. Positive vote transfer systems belong to this family. This article explains why they might be better than their siblings, and examines under which conditions full proportionality is reached. A formal model shows that full proportionality depends on the number of compensation mandates available, and on the degree of coordination among voters and parties. The model is applied to six elections in Hungary.

Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections

It has long been recognized that Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) suffers from a defect known as nonmonotonicity, wherein increasing support for a candidate among a subset of voters may adversely affect that candidate’s election outcome. The expected frequency of this type of behavior, however, remains an open and important question, and limited access to detailed election data makes it difficult to resolve empirically. In this paper, we develop a spatial model of voting behavior to approach the question theoretically. We conclude that monotonicity failures in three-candidate IRV elections may be much more prevalent than widely presumed (results suggest a lower bound estimate of 15 % for competitive elections). In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV.