Input-output Coefficients Research Articles

Exploring the driving force and mitigation contribution rate diversity considering new normal pattern as divisions for carbon emissions in Hebei province

Abstract Estimated annual level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were roughly 50GtCO2e in 2016 and must constraint to nearly net zero by the mid-term upon 21st century for responding to global warming. As the largest emitting countries, carbon emissions in China have been extensively increasing under a traditional development pathway. New normal mode is identified as the gradually emerging influencing context for Chinese economy-social-environment system. This study employed structural decomposition analysis in accordance with a row arrange series updated input-output approach to assess the driving effectiveness changes of Hebei province’s carbon emissions during the simulation time phrase ranging from new normal pre-period 2007–2012 to post-period 2012–2016. Several lines of variations have been occurred due to the shock of new normal pattern. Carbon emissions increasing rate was decreased from 39.22% during new normal pre-period to 10.11% among post-period. Energy consumption structure effectiveness and input-output coefficient effectiveness make the critical mitigation contribution for curbing the carbon emissions growth rate in a percent of −153.16 and a percent of 60.18, respectively. Alternatively, the annual average level of carbon emissions in agriculture sector, construction sector, and other sectors would be declined at 0.327, 0.658, and 0.367 million tons beyond the stimulation of new normal development pattern, respectively.

G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis

We motivate and detail the newly developed G-RDEM recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model as a tool for long-term counterfactual analysis and baseline generation from given GDP and population projections. It encompasses an AIDADS demand system with non-linear Engel curves, debt accumulation from foreign saving and introduces sector specific productivity changes, endogenous aggregate saving rates, as well as time-varying input-output coefficients. Parameters for these relationships are econometrically estimated or taken from published work. The core of the model is derived from the GTAP standard model and seamlessly incorporated into the modular and flexible CGEBox modelling platform. Accordingly, it can be applied with various other extensions such as GTAP-AEZ, GTAP-Water or a regional breakdown for Europe to 280 NUTS2 regions. G-RDEM maintains the flexible aggregation from the GTAP data base. It is open source, encoded in GAMS and can be steered by a Graphical User Interface, which also encompasses a tool to analyse results with tables, graphs and maps. Existing GDP and population projections for the Socio-Economic Pathways 1-5 can be directly incorporated for baseline construction. A comparison of the generated long-term structural composition of the economy against a simple recursive-dynamic variant, using the basic CDE demand system of the standard GTAP model, uniform productivity growth, fixed saving rates and technology parameters, and no debt accumulation shows that G-RDEM brings about much more plausible results, as well as a more realistic, internally consistent representation of the economic structure in a hypothetical future.

A new dawn for MENA firms: service trade liberalization for more competitive exports

ABSTRACTWhile micro-level empirical evidence has emerged to highlight the positive effect of services deregulation on the productivity and exports of manufacturing firms in developing countries, the MENA region has been neglected in the literature. The current paper fills the gap by exploring the effect of service protection on the extensive and intensive trade margins of manufacturing and services firms in selected MENA countries for 2013. The service protection variable is constructed using two different measures: the service trade restrictiveness index and the tariff equivalent of services, weighted by the input-output technical coefficient of service sectors. Our results show that service protection is a fixed export cost, exerting a negative and significant effect on the extensive margin, without having a significant effect on the intensive margin of the firm. We also find that the burden of service barriers falls on small firms that struggle to enter international markets, and on firms operating in high value-added sectors such as ‘motor vehicles’.

Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas

We develop an N-sector business cycle network model a la Long and Plosser (1983), featuring heterogenous money demand a la Bewley (1980) and Lucas (1980). Despite incomplete markets and a well-defined distribution of real money balances across heterogeneous households, the Bewley–Lucas–Long–Plosser model remains analytically tractable with closed-form solutions. Relying on the tractability, we establish several important results: (i) The economy’s input-output network linkages become endogenously time varying over the business cycle—thanks to the endogenous time-varying distribution of money demand and its influence on cross-sector allocations of commodities. (ii) Despite flexible prices, transitory money injections can generate highly persistent effects on sectoral output, also thanks to the time-varying distribution of money demand and its effect on input-output coefficients. (iii) Although money injection is distributed equally across households by design, the real effects are asymmetric across production sectors; e.g., the impact of money is strongest on downstream sectors that purchase intermediate goods from the rest of the economy, but weakest on upstream sectors that supply intermediate goods to the other sectors, in sharp contrast to the case of sectoral technology shocks and government spending shocks. Our model also provides a micro-foundation for the labor wedge and shows that movements in the distribution of money demand can explain the cyclical behavior of the labor wedge.

The persistent statistical structure of the US input–output coefficient matrices: 1963–2007

ABSTRACTThe paper finds evidence for the existence of a statistical structure in the US input–output coefficient matrices for 1963–2007 and characterizes the identified statistical regularities. For various aspects of matrices, we find smooth and unimodal empirical distributions (EDs) with a remarkable stability in their functional form for most of the samples. The EDs of all entries, row sums, and the entries of the (left- and right-hand) Perron–Frobenius eigenvectors are well described by fat-tailed distributions, while the EDs of column sums and eigenvalues' moduli are explained by the normal and the beta distribution. The paper provides several economic interpretations of these statistical results as well as some implications and potential uses for structural and stochastic input–output analysis.

On the accuracy of international forest product statistics

To judge the accuracy of international forest product statistics, we checked the consistency of the reported consumption of wood and fiber with the production of wood products. Using goal programming, we estimated for 180 countries the consumption of industrial roundwood and of paper-making fibers nearest to the reported consumption, given the reported production of sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp and paper and paperboard, and prior estimates of the input–output coefficients. The results suggested that for the 3-year average 2013–2015, industrial roundwood consumption was under-reported in 57 countries by a total amount of 368 million m³ and over reported in 44 countries by a total of 16 million m³. The largest under-reporting was for China for which the reported consumption of industrial roundwood was 237 million m³, or 57 per cent less than the estimated. The largest over reporting was for India, by 11 million m³, or 24 per cent. For paper-making fibers, reported consumption was less than the estimated in 62 countries for a total of 11.3 million t, and it was more than the estimated in 61 countries, for a total of 3.2 million t. The largest under-reported amount was for India: 2.6 million t, or 20 per cent of the estimated, a difference that was entirely attributed to the under-reporting of recovered paper consumption. The largest over reported consumption of paper-making fibers was for Spain, nearly 1 million t, or 24 per cent, attributed to over reporting of recovered paper consumption. The main source of the discrepancies was in the production statistics rather than trade. Only in some instances was the presumption of illegal logging consistent with the discrepancy, or lack thereof, between reported and estimated consumption of industrial roundwood.

Antalya İli Tarıma Dayalı Sanayinin Yapısal Analizi

Bu çalışmada Antalya ili tarıma dayalı sanayi sektörünün Input-Output Analizi ile yapısal ilişkileri incelemiştir. Bu amaçla Antalya ilinde faaliyet gösteren tarıma dayalı sanayi işletmeleri ile anket yapılmıştır. Anketlerden elde edilen veriler yardımıyla endüstriyel işlemler tablosu oluşturulmuştur. Bu tablo üzerinden input-output katsayılar matrisine ulaşılmış ve leontief matrisi işlemleri ile sektörler üzerinde üretim çoğaltanları hesaplanmıştır. Çalışmada tarıma dayalı sanayi sektörleri toplulaştırılarak 9 sektöre indirgenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre üretim çoğaltanları açısından en yüksek katkıyı sağlayan sektör bitkisel üretimdir. Bu sektörün Leontief Ters Matrisi sütun toplamları 3,26904 olup bu şu anlama gelmektedir; bitkisel üretim sektöründe 1 birimlik bir üretim artışına karşılık diğer dokuz sektörde yaratacağı üretim artışı 3,26904 kat olacaktır. Bu sektörü 3,07305 katsayı bitkisel yağlar ve 2,736016 ile de ile meyve-sebze işleme sanayi izlemektedir. Şekerli ürünler sanayi alanında 1,767583 katsayı hesaplanmıştır. Bu katsayılarla bu alt sektörlerin önemli katkılar sağladığı söylenebilir. İncelenen sektörlerin tümünde birde üretimin bir birim artırılması halinde ilgili satırdaki sektörün üretiminde ortaya çıkacak üretim artışını veren bir başka çoğaltanda söz konusudur. Buna göre unlu mamuller sektörü katsayısı 2,660875 olup en yüksektir. Bu rakama göre incelenen diğer sekiz sektörün üretimlerini bir birim artırmaları halinde unlu mamuller sanayi sekiz sektöre verdiği girdi düzeyini 2,66 kat artırmak durumunda kalacağı söylenebilir.

Exploring Long Run Structural Change with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

In this paper we present a computable general equilibrium model (G-RDEM), specifically designed for the generation of long run scenarios of economic development, featuring a non-homothetic demand system, endogenous saving rates, differentiated industrial productivity growth, interest payments on foreign debt and time-varying input-output coefficients. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model of this kind. We illustrate how parameters of the five modules of structural change have been estimated, and we test the model by comparing its results with those obtained by a more conventional recursive dynamic CGE model. Both models are driven by the same GDP and population data, exogenously provided by the IPCC Shared Socio-economic Pathway 3. GDP levels determine the endogenous productivity parameters. Population affects the definition of per capita income, which in turn affects the household demand system and the variation of input-output coefficients. Information on the demographic structure is also employed to modify the aggregate saving rate parameters. It is found that the two models do produce different findings, both globally and at the regional and industrial level. Understanding the origins of such differences sheds some light on how mechanisms of structural change operate in the long run.

Toolkit for the Input–Output Analysis of the Performance of Russian Economy in 1991–2013

Input–output analysis has been used to study the impact made by microstructure factors such as final demand and the matrix of input–output coefficients on the performance of the total gross output of the Russian Federation in 1990–2013. The contribution of these factors to the economic dynamics during the transformational recession in 1991–1998 and the subsequent restoration growth of 1999–2013 have been numerically estimated.

A multi-period perspective on tourism’s economic contribution – a regional input-output analysis for Sweden

PurposePrevious studies on tourism input-output (IO) primarily focus on a single year’s snapshot or utilize outdated IO coefficients. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the multi-period development of regional tourism capacities and its influence on the magnitude of the industry’s regional economic contribution. The paper highlights the importance of applying up-to-date IO coefficients to avoid estimation bias typically found in previous studies on tourism’s economic contribution.Design/methodology/approachFor the period 2008-2014, national IO tables are regionalized to estimate direct and indirect economic effects for output, employment, income and other value-added deffects. A comparison of Leontief inverse matrices is conducted to quantify estimation bias when using outdated models for analyzing tourism’s economic contribution.FindingsOn the one hand, economic linkages strengthened, especially for labour-intensive sectors. On the other hand, sectoral recessions in 2012 and 2014 led to an economy-wide decline of indirect effects, although tourists’ consumption was still increasing. Finally, estimation bias observed after applying an outdated IO model is quantified by approximately US$4.1m output, 986 jobs full-time equivalents, US$24.8m income and US$14.8m other value-added effects.Research limitations/implicationsPrevailing assumptions on IO modelling and regionalization techniques aim for more precise survey-based approaches and computable general equilibrium models to incorporate net changes in economic output. Results should be cross-validated by means of qualitative interviews with industry representatives.Practical implicationsAdditional costs for generating IO tables on an annual base clearly pay off when considering the improved accuracy of estimates on tourism’s economic contribution.Originality/valueThis study shows that tourism IO studies should apply up-to-date IO models when estimating the industry’s economic contribution. It provides evidence that applying outdated models involve the risk of estimation biases, because annual changes of multipliers substantially influence the magnitude of effects.

G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis

We motivate and detail the newly developed G-RDEM recursive-dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model as a tool for long-term counterfactual analysis and baseline generation from given GDP and population projections. It encompasses an AIDADS demand system with non-linear Engel curves, debt accumulation from foreign saving and introduces sector specific productivity changes, endogenous aggregate saving rates, as well as time-varying input-output coefficients. Parameters for these relationships are econometrically estimated or taken from published work. The core of the model is derived from the GTAP standard model and seamlessly incorporated into the modular and flexible CGEBox modelling platform. Accordingly, it can be applied with various other extensions such as GTAP-AEZ, GTAP-Water or a regional breakdown for Europe to 280 NUTS2 regions. G-RDEM maintains the flexible aggregation from the GTAP data base. It is open source, encoded in GAMS and can be steered by a Graphical User Interface, which also encompasses a tool to analyse results with tables, graphs and maps. Existing GDP and population projections for the Socio-Economic Pathways 1-5 can be directly incorporated for baseline construction. A comparison of the generated long-term structural composition of the economy against a simple recursive-dynamic variant, using the basic CDE demand system of the standard GTAP model, uniform productivity growth, fixed saving rates and technology parameters, and no debt accumulation shows that G-RDEM brings about much more plausible results, as well as a more realistic, internally consistent representation of the economic structure in a hypothetical future.

Input–output coefficients in the evaluation of a scientific and technological component of the macrostructural forecasting

Approaches to the quantitative evaluation of technological development parameters based on input–output coefficients of the input–output table and possibilities of their application in the estimation of quantitative characteristics of scientific and technological forecasts have been considered. This work is a continuation of studies related to the assessment of the influence of the technological coefficient on the economic dynamics.

Input and Output Analysis of Light Industry

This paper analyzes the data in the statistical yearbook of Jiangsu Province, analyzes the overall composition, the labor force input, the investment of fixed assets, the light output value per capita of in the light industry of Jiangsu Province, analyzes the changes of labor force and fixed assets in the light industry of Jiangsu Province, and finds out the existing problems. In the calculation of the input-output coefficient, the data processing is carried out by using matlab software, and the policy suggestions are put forward for the development of light industry in Jiangsu Province.

Cross-border Vertical Integration and Intra-firm Trade: New Evidence from Korean and Japanese Firm-level Data

This paper establishes two facts about cross-border vertical integration and intra-firm trade of firms in Korean and Japanese manufacturing industries. First, the intra-firm trade between a parent firm and its affiliates is highly concentrated in a small number of large multinational corporations. Second, the input–output coefficient between the parent firm's industry and the affiliate's industry is weakly related to the presence and magnitude of intra-firm trade between the parent firm and its affiliates. Furthermore, these two characteristics are also found in domestic vertically integrated firms. In particular, the second point identifies a need for further research on the motivation of cross-border vertical integration between two manufacturers, the final good producers at home and the input suppliers abroad.

A new way to estimate the direct and indirect rebound effect and other rebound indicators

Some progress has been done during the last years on the methods and provision of empirical evidence on the direct and indirect rebound effect. However, these methods are complex, and sometimes require some specific economic knowledge. The development of risk and vulnerability rebound indicators for economies can be a useful tool to help the research community, policy-makers and other practitioners to understand and tackle the rebound effect. This research shows a new analytical way to obtain the direct and indirect rebound effect from the direct rebound effect and the use of energy input-output coefficients, and proposes three risk and vulnerability rebound indicators to show the effects of energy efficiency improvements in households on overall energy consumption. An estimation of these indicators has been conducted for the EU-27 countries.

On the financial balance of input–output constructs: revisiting an axiomatic evaluation

ABSTRACTFinancial balance is fundamental to input–output (IO) analysis, and consequently the respect of this balance is one of the dominant criteria in evaluating IO constructs. Kop Jansen, and ten Raa [(1990) The Choice of Model in the Construction of Input–Output Coefficients Matrices. International Economic Review 31, 213] proved that the byproduct-technology construct (BTC) and the industry-technology construct (ITC) do not generally conserve financial balance. In contrast, Majeau-Bettez et al. [(2016) When do Allocations and Constructs Respect Material, Energy, Financial, and Production Balances in LCA and EEIO? Journal of Industrial Ecology 20, 67–84] demonstrated that the BTC necessarily respects financial balance and that the ITC is always financially balanced when applied to data recorded in monetary units. The present article resolves this paradox.

Constructing joint production chains: An enterprise input-output approach for alternative energy use

Although there is already an extensive literature on waste and end-of-life (EOL) product recycling methods, the contribution of such methods to the environmental sustainability of entire production chains (PC) seems to have been ignored. Since many PCs belonging to diverse sectors have become more interconnected through recycling, the above mentioned problem is of vital importance to promoting cooperation among the actors of these PCs.The aim of this paper is to propose several sustainable PC combinations, namely joint production chains (JPCs), and to foresee how potential environmental effects can be mitigated by linking these PCs. To this end, in this paper an enterprise input-output (EIO) model is introduced to evaluate the potential environmental benefits of cooperative actions taken by the actors in these joint production chains (JPC). Moreover, it is aimed that the proposed model serves as a material planning tool for the companies involved in JPCs.Two main cases are investigated from structural perspective: (i) waste to main product substitution and (ii) EOL product to main product substitution. The proposed model provides dynamicity to input-output coefficients, thereby facilitating the calculation of the impacts of resource use change that stems from waste/main product recycling. This makes the model a novel material planning tool for modelling possible alternative material/energy use scenarios.Two empirical case examples from second-generation bioenergy PC and EOL tires PC validate the constructed model to demonstrate its applicability.The results indicate that the proposed model is able to compute not only the direct influence of recycling but also its indirect and resultant consequences on the all processes carried out by the involved actors. Substantial savings of energy and natural resources, and reductions in waste and CO2 emissions are found in the case examples. The model is particularly useful for implementing policy shifts, planning future material purchasing strategies, and foreseeing the necessary actor involvement to reach complete material substitution for companies.

An Analysis of Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy

This paper attempts to analyze sources of output growth in the Indian economy using Input-Output based Structural Decomposition Analysis over the period 1993-4 to 2003-4. The decomposition results show that overall output expansion of the economy was primarily driven by increase in domestic demand followed by export expansion. At the aggregate level, import liberalization contributed to output expansion. Contribution of improved technology is realized through changes in input-output coefficients and has been rather limited. It can be said that easier and cheaper access to better quality imports, had a rather limited technological change at an aggregate level. However, the relationship between the two sources varied at sector level.

Intrafirm trade and vertical fragmentation in U.S. multinational corporations

Using firm-level data, we document two new facts regarding intrafirm trade and the activities of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational corporations. First, intrafirm trade is concentrated among a small number of large affiliates within large multinational corporations; the median affiliate ships nothing to the rest of the corporation. Second, we find that the input–output coefficient linking the parent's and affiliate's industries of operation — a characteristic commonly associated with production fragmentation — is not related to a corresponding intrafirm flow of goods.

Mathematical Model of Kazakhstan Economy

This article gives a description of a model of the Republic of Kazakhstan modern economy. The model takes into account the specific character of economic brunches and the peculiarities of the competition between the domestic production and imported analogues at the domestic market. A particular attention is paid to the problem of formation of intersectional balance for the enlarged structure of economy. This article also analyzes questions of adaptation of classic approaches offered by Leontiev V.V. to the calculation of input-output coefficients for the brunches that compete with import at the domestic markets.