Exploring the driving force and mitigation contribution rate diversity considering new normal pattern as divisions for carbon emissions in Hebei province

Abstract

Abstract Estimated annual level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were roughly 50GtCO2e in 2016 and must constraint to nearly net zero by the mid-term upon 21st century for responding to global warming. As the largest emitting countries, carbon emissions in China have been extensively increasing under a traditional development pathway. New normal mode is identified as the gradually emerging influencing context for Chinese economy-social-environment system. This study employed structural decomposition analysis in accordance with a row arrange series updated input-output approach to assess the driving effectiveness changes of Hebei province’s carbon emissions during the simulation time phrase ranging from new normal pre-period 2007–2012 to post-period 2012–2016. Several lines of variations have been occurred due to the shock of new normal pattern. Carbon emissions increasing rate was decreased from 39.22% during new normal pre-period to 10.11% among post-period. Energy consumption structure effectiveness and input-output coefficient effectiveness make the critical mitigation contribution for curbing the carbon emissions growth rate in a percent of −153.16 and a percent of 60.18, respectively. Alternatively, the annual average level of carbon emissions in agriculture sector, construction sector, and other sectors would be declined at 0.327, 0.658, and 0.367 million tons beyond the stimulation of new normal development pattern, respectively.