Inform Conservation Decisions Research Articles

Enhancing Conservation of a Globally Imperiled Rockland Herb (Linum arenicola) through Assessments of Seed Functional Traits and Multi-Dimensional Germination Niche Breadths.

Humans currently face an extraordinary period of plant biodiversity loss. One strategy to stem further losses involves the development of species-level recovery plans that guide conservation actions. Seeds represent an important component in the life history of plants and are crucial for conservation activities. Yet, most recovery plans contain meager seed biology information. We set out to examine seed functional traits and germination niche breadth of Linum arenicola seeds exposed to a range of thermal, photoperiodic, and salinity gradients to gain perspectives on the seed biology of this endangered species that may inform conservation decision making and assist recovery plan development. We found that fresh seeds possess non-deep physiological dormancy, which may be alleviated via a four-week dry after-ripening treatment. The germination response of non-dormant seeds is subsequently promoted by constant rather than alternating temperatures. The optimum germination temperature range is 20–22 °C. Non-dormant seeds do not possess an absolute light requirement for germination, but are sensitive to low levels of salinity (EC50 = 6.34 ppth NaCl). The narrow thermal and salinity germination niche breadths reported here suggest a specialized reproductive strategy that may require careful consideration when planning ex and in situ conservation activities.

Suitability of passive integrated transponder tags and a new monitoring technique for at-risk madtoms (Noturus spp.)

Representative indices of population abundance for at-risk species are necessary to inform conservation decision-making. Many madtoms (Noturusspp.) are considered imperiled; however, the efficacy of frequent monitoring efforts has been questioned due to their cryptic and nocturnal behaviors. We systematically evaluated a madtom monitoring tool by (1) evaluating the use of small (8 × 2 mm), surgically implanted 125 kHz passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags for frecklebelly madtomN. munitusand (2) assessing the effectiveness of a radio-frequency identification (RFID)-enhanced artificial cover unit to index madtom abundance. Surgically implanted PIT tags had no apparent influence on madtom survival between 45 and 110 mm total length, and all tags were retained throughout a 21 d laboratory study. In experimental mesocosms, the enhanced cover units confirmed occupancy during nearly all replicates (77.6%), even at extremely low densities (n = 2 madtoms). The enhanced cover units provided representative estimates of madtom relative abundance (p < 0.01), whereas catch per unit effort was not significantly associated with previously validated visual observations (p = 0.12). Although madtom density and the number detected using the enhanced cover units were correlated, the gear was potentially saturated at relatively high densities (~20 fish per mesocosm) when deploying a single unit. In most cases, occupancy was confirmed within 12 h, and nearly half of the individuals were detected within ~72 h. Small PIT tags and RFID-enhanced artificial cover units offer novel opportunities to efficiently describe the ecology and population dynamics of madtoms.

Linking genomics and fish conservation decision making: a review

Despite the promising applications of genome-wide information to conservation, the field of conservation genomics remains hindered by a research-practice gap. Identifying the benefits from genomics in relation to fish conservation planning and decision-making could contribute to bridging this gap. The goals of our study were twofold. First, we reviewed the fish conservation genomic literature to determine how genomic information has been used to inform conservation decision making; and second, we examined how genomic information can be linked to an existing conservation decision framework. Our review showed that, as fish conservation genomics studies accumulate over time, collaborations between researchers and conservation practitioners are becoming increasingly frequent. While the field is dominated by studies of economically important families (e.g. salmonids, acipenserids) in first-world countries (North America, Europe), it has a broad taxonomic coverage where species of both local and global conservation concern are well represented. We also show that genomic information can readily be harnessed to guide decisions within existing conservation decision frameworks, from the conceptualization (identification of conservation targets and threats) to the implementation and the monitoring of conservation actions. In addition, our review identifies some limitations related to genomic inferences for conservation and proposes solutions to address these uncertainties and improve communication between conservation genomic scientists and practitioners. For genomic researchers, we outline how conservation decisions are made; for practitioners, we illustrate how genomic information can inform decision-making.

Thermal tolerance and the importance of microhabitats for Andean frogs in the context of land use and climate change.

Global warming is having impacts across the Tree of Life. Understanding species' physiological sensitivity to temperature change and how they relate to local temperature variation in their habitats is crucial to determining vulnerability to global warming. We ask how species' vulnerability varies across habitats and elevations, and how climatically buffered microhabitats can contribute to reduce their vulnerability. We measured thermal sensitivity (critical thermal maximum-CTmax ) of 14 species of Pristimantis frogs inhabiting young and old secondary, and primary forests in the Colombian Andes. Exposure to temperature stress was measured by recording temperature in the understorey and across five microhabitats. We determined frogs' current vulnerability across habitats, elevations and microhabitats accounting for phylogeny and then ask how vulnerability varies under four warming scenarios: +1.5, +2, +3 and +5°C. We found that CTmax was constant across species regardless of habitat and elevation. However, species in young secondary forests are expected to become more vulnerable because of increased exposure to higher temperatures. Microhabitat variation could enable species to persist within their thermal temperature range as long as regional temperatures do not surpass +2°C. The effectiveness of microhabitat buffering decreases with a 2-3°C increase, and is almost null under a 5°C temperature increase. Microhabitats will provide thermal protection to Andean frog communities from climate change by enabling tracking of suitable climates through short distance movement. Conservation strategies, such as managing landscapes by preserving primary forests and allowing regrowth and reconnection of secondary forest would offer thermally buffered microhabitats and aid in the survival of this group.

A comparison of genetic and genomic approaches to represent evolutionary potential in conservation planning

Emerging global change stressors have underlined the importance of informing conservation decisions with molecular diversity, particularly including intraspecific adaptive or evolutionary potential across species and populations. Population-level evolutionary potential is best captured by genomic approaches, yet these data types mostly remain limited to model organisms. In contrast, traditional genetic data are broadly available. The relevance of genomic metrics, and how they differ from genetic metrics in the context of spatial conservation practices, remains unknown. This provides an opportunity to consider the relative contribution and impact of genomic compared to genetic metrics in their efficiency of selecting conservation areas of evolutionary importance. Here, we provide a guideline to include metrics of genetic and genomic variation into spatial planning analyses for multiple conservation objectives, and empirically explore how spatial prioritizations change when including different types of molecular information across multiple species. Specifically, we compare conservation solutions of scenarios including either an increase in molecular information (i.e. either a single locus; mtDNA, or several thousand loci; SNPs), or an increase in species included. We find that including less molecular information from many species leads to similar outcomes to including more molecular information from fewer species. Our work suggests that multi-species genetic data may be a cost- and time-effective surrogate for genomic data in spatial planning.

Ecological forecasts to inform near-term management of threats to biodiversity.

Ecosystems are being altered by rapid and interacting changes in natural processes and anthropogenic threats to biodiversity. Uncertainty in historical, current and future effectiveness of actions hampers decisions about how to mitigate changes to prevent biodiversity loss and species extinctions. Research in resource management, agriculture and health indicates that forecasts predicting the effects of near‐term or seasonal environmental conditions on management greatly improve outcomes. Such forecasts help resolve uncertainties about when and how to operationalize management. We reviewed the scientific literature on environmental management to investigate whether near‐term forecasts are developed to inform biodiversity decisions in Australia, a nation with one of the highest recent extinction rates across the globe. We found that forecasts focused on economic objectives (e.g. fisheries management) predict on significantly shorter timelines and answer a broader range of management questions than forecasts focused on biodiversity conservation. We then evaluated scientific literature on the effectiveness of 484 actions to manage seven major terrestrial threats in Australia, to identify opportunities for near‐term forecasts to inform operational conservation decisions. Depending on the action, between 30% and 80% threat management operations experienced near‐term weather impacts on outcomes before, during or after management. Disease control, species translocation/reintroduction and habitat restoration actions were most frequently impacted, and negative impacts such as increased species mortality and reduced recruitment were more likely than positive impacts. Drought or dry conditions, and rainfall, were the most frequently reported weather impacts, indicating that near‐term forecasts predicting the effects of low or excessive rainfall on management outcomes are likely to have the greatest benefits. Across the world, many regions are, like Australia, becoming warmer and drier, or experiencing more extreme rainfall events. Informing conservation decisions with near‐term and seasonal ecological forecasting will be critical to harness uncertainties and lower the risk of threat management failure under global change.

Circuitscape in Julia: High Performance Connectivity Modelling to Support Conservation Decisions

Connectivity across landscapes influences a wide range of conservation-relevant ecological processes, including species movements, gene flow, and the spread of wildfire, pests, and diseases. Recent improvements in remote sensing data suggest great potential to advance connectivity models, but computational constraints hinder these advances. To address this challenge, we upgraded the widely-used Circuitscape connectivity package to the high performance Julia programming language. Circuitscape.jl allows users to solve problems faster via improved parallel processing and solvers, and supports applications to larger problems (e.g., datasets with hundreds of millions of cells). We document speed improvements of up to 1800\%. We also demonstrate scaling of problem sizes up to 437 million grid cells. These improvements allow modelers to work with higher resolution data, larger landscapes and perform sensitivity analysis effortlessly. These improvements accelerate the pace of innovation, helping modelers address pressing challenges like species range shifts under climate change. Our collaboration between ecologists and computer scientists has led to the use of connectivity models to inform conservation decisions. Further, these next generation connectivity models will produce results faster, facilitating stronger engagement with decision-makers.

Aspects of the ecology of Bartramia halleriana and Crossocalyx hellerianus in oceanic deciduous woodland in Wales

ABSTRACT Introduction. This study investigated the ecology of two boreal-montane bryophytes, the saxicolous moss Bartramia halleriana and the epixylic liverwort Crossocalyx hellerianus, at the edge of their ranges, in oceanic deciduous woodland in Wales. Methods. The study site comprises two adjoining woodlands, Allt Penyrhiw-iar (canopy trees ca. 100 yr old) and Allt Rhyd Groes (ca. 200 yr), Carmarthenshire, UK. The distribution and abundance of B. halleriana and C. hellerianus was surveyed, relevés sampled to record habitat and community composition, and sporophyte frequency and stage of development measured. Light climate of B. halleriana was investigated via hemispherical photography, and abundance of large rotten logs used as a measure of habitat quality for C. hellerianus. Results. Four subpopulations of B. halleriana occured, comprising 21 individual-equivalents (occupied 1 m grid cells), all on mildly base-rich mudstone of north-facing rockfaces, with very little direct solar radiation and a diverse assemblage of bryophytes. Sporophytes were scarce. A total of 143 individual-equivalents (occupied logs or trees) of C. hellerianus was recorded, an exceptional population in Wales. Most of the population was within Allt Rhyd Groes, where large rotten logs were much more abundant due to greater woodland age. The liverwort mainly occupied the sides of decorticated rotten logs, amongst a sparse community composed mainly of other small liverworts and Cladonia lichens. Neither sporophytes nor perianths were found on C. hellerianus specimens. Conclusion. Further research could usefully focus on the description and measurement of favourable habitat conditions for each species and associated physiological tolerances to inform conservation decisions for both species.

Ecology of the Critically Endangered Singidia Tilapia (Teleostei: Cichlidae: Oreochromis esculentus) of lake Kayanja, Uganda and its conservation implications

Singidia Tilapia Oreochromis esculentus is a Critically Endangered native tilapia fish species endemic to lakes Victoria and Kyoga basins of East Africa, however, it disappeared from these main lakes due to overfishing, environmental degradation and predation by the introduced Nile Perch Lates niloticus. Remnant populations of this fish species is now restricted to satellite lakes including Lake Kayanja of the Victoria basin. This study provides updated information about the population abundance, critical habitat, threats and diet of Singidia Tilapia to inform conservation decisions to revive its populations in the wild. Fish data collection and mapping of nursery and breeding habitats of Singidia Tilapia on Lake Kayanja was conducted between February 2016 and October 2017. In all the areas mapped and sampled, Singidia Tilapia (with a size range of 11–27 cm TL) was the most abundant (43%) relative to exotic Nile Tilapia Oreochromis niloticus (21%) and Redbelly Tilapia Coptodon zillii (36%). The emergence of introduced (exotic) tilapias like Nile Tilapia recorded in this study could be attributed to cage fish farming being carried out in this Lake. The diet of Oreochromis esculentus consisted mainly of detritus (60.8 %), plant materials (27.7%) and blue-green algae (5.5%). Destruction of critical habitats and presence of introduced fish species were noted as the major threats to this fish and its habitats. The generated information could contribute to guiding stakeholders to undertake appropriate actions to conserve this threatened fish species and its habitats.

Predation on Multiple Prey Types Across a Disturbance Gradient in Tropical Montane Forests of Peninsular Malaysia

Predation plays a critical role in animal and plant survivorship, and can be highly sensitive to habitat loss and disturbance. Tropical montane forests in Southeast Asia are being modified rapidly by land-use change, and the consequences of this on predation likelihood are poorly understood. In Peninsular Malaysia, we conducted predation experiments at eight tropical montane forest sites along a disturbance gradient. We investigated whether (1) predation pressure in primary forests differs between different mountains; (2) predation probability is linked to habitat degradation; and (3) vegetation variables explain predation occurrence. At each forest site, we placed artificial nests with real and model quail eggs, dishes with real and artificial seeds of the cempedak (Artocarpus champeden), models resembling four-lined tree frogs (Polypedetes leucomystax) and models of the late instar caterpillar of the common Mormon (Papilio polytes) at points 100 m apart for three nights. Using Bayesian binomial simulations, we showed that predation likelihood in primary forests from different mountains can vary (e.g., probability of the difference in predation rate of artificial caterpillars between two primary forests was estimated at 82%–100%). We also found that higher predation was not linked to habitat degradation for all artificial prey and seeds (e.g., comparing forests of varying degrees of disturbance from the same mountain, the probability that predation of an artificial caterpillar is lower at the primary forest was estimated at 2%–20% only). Model selection and hierarchical partitioning showed that vegetation variables can explain predation occurrence, suggesting microhabitat characteristics may be influential. Conducting predation experiments by using artificial prey and seeds is useful for comparing predation likelihood at different sites, making ecological comparisons, and for informing conservation decisions. This novel approach of using multiple prey items also showed that predation for each can vary and thus caution against deploying a single prey type to draw broad inferences of predation in degraded systems.

Projected migrations of southern Indian Ocean albatrosses as a response to climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is altering the geographical distribution and regular movements of species. Highly‐mobile pelagic seabirds, such as albatrosses, are particularly threatened by human activities, such as fisheries bycatch. Predicting the impact of climate change on how these animals roam the ocean is an important step towards making informed conservation decisions. In this study, we used a mechanistic model of migratory movements to predict how the migration of albatross species that breed in the southern Indian Ocean may change between now and the end of the century. The model is able to generate non‐breeding movement patterns of albatrosses that correspond to empirical patterns from tracking data, thus providing confidence in the ability of the model to make future predictions. We projected the model using environmental conditions for 2100 based on a scenario assuming high emissions (IPCC RCP 8.5). Overall, we found very little projected change in the non‐breeding distribution of albatrosses compared to the present. Some change, however, is predicted for large albatrosses, which, due to their size, are more affected by wind, and are projected to migrate further eastwards in the future scenario. These results contrast with previous analyses focusing on the breeding distribution that used statistical modelling, such as habitat and species distributions models, and predicted poleward shifts in geographical distributions of various seabird species including albatrosses. Therefore, it highlights the need for formal comparison of predicted changes in distribution during different phases of the annual cycle of the albatrosses and/or integration of the different approaches. Our analysis also predicts that the overlap of albatrosses with Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) during the non‐breeding season will remain similar in 2100 compared to today. This implies that large‐scale by‐catch mitigation measures implemented through fisheries management organisations will remain important over the next hundred years of climate change.

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird.

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.

Latitudinal patterns in the diet of Andean condor (Vultur gryphus) in Chile: Contrasting environments influencing feeding behavior

Human-dominated environments alter the availability and quality of resources for many species, especially for scavengers that have large home ranges and plastic foraging behaviors that enable them to exploit novel resources. Along the western slope of the Andes, the modification of natural landscapes have resulted in significant declines in native prey, the introduction of non-native species, and an increase in the availability of anthropogenic resources. These factors have likely influenced the resources available to Andean condors (Vultur gryphus), however, data are lacking as to how condor's diet vary along their large latitudinal range. We evaluated differences in Andean condor diet along a ~2500 km latitudinal gradient in Chile from the heavily modified Central zone (32–34°S) to the more pristine Austral zone (44–56°S). We assessed diet composition through the identification of prey remains in condor pellets, and carbon and nitrogen isotope analysis of condor feathers and their primary prey identified from pellet analysis. Our results identified medium- and large-bodied domesticated mammals (ungulates) and introduced exotic species (lagomorphs) as common prey across the study area. Condors from the Central zone had the largest isotopic niche width, probably related to consumption of anthropogenic resources with distinctly high carbon isotope values indicative of C4-based foods likely acquired from landfills or corn-fed livestock. Isotopic niches for condors from the Southern and Austral zones almost completely overlapped. Andean condor diet is strongly influenced by local conditions determining differential access to prey sources. The high dependence of Andean condors on livestock across a large geographical area, and landfills in more (sub)urban areas, may help stabilize their populations via anthropogenic resources subsidies. Long-term dependence on such resources, however, may have health costs including contaminant exposure and greater mortality risk. These data will help identify potential threats related to resource availability and use, and better inform management and conservation decisions.

Population Genetic Structure and Natural Establishment of Hybrids Between Sarracenia flava and Sarracenia minor in Francis Marion National Forest

We assessed population genetic structure and rate of hybridization in Sarracenia flava and S. minor in Francis Marion National Forest. The forest has an abundance of potential habitat for our study species and has suffered less human mediated disturbance than much of the county's longleaf pine savanna and wet pine savanna ecosystems. We examined 63 S. flava and 62 S. minor individuals, as well as one hybrid across a 486.02 km2 study site. We used eight nuclear microsatellite loci and one non-coding chloroplast marker to assess population genetic structure and describe the parentage of the hybrid. We found relatively little population genetic structure across many distinct field sites, even when those sites were separated by unsuitable habitat. In very small populations surviving in shrub-dominated longleaf pine savanna, genetic divergence was greater than in larger populations with more suitable habitat. The single hybrid discovered was an F1 hybrid for which S. flava served as the maternal parent. We found no signs of introgression. We hope that these data can help inform conservation decisions regarding Sarracenia species, as the low genetic structure seems to suggest a high degree of connectivity between geographically distinct populations of plants.

Drivers and Consequences of Alternative Landscape Futures on Wildlife Distributions in New England, United States

In an era of rapid climate and land transformation, it is increasingly important to understand how future changes impact natural systems. Scenario studies can offer the structure and perspective needed to understand the impacts of change and help inform management and conservation decisions. We implemented a scenario-based approach to assess how two high impact drivers of landscape change influence the distributions of managed wildlife species (n = 10) in the New England region of the northeastern United States. We used expert derived species distribution models (SDMs) and scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project (NELFP) to estimate how species distributions change under various trajectories (n = 5) of landscape change. The NELFP scenarios were built around two primary drivers – Socio-Economic Connectedness (SEC) and Natural Resource Planning and Innovation (NRPI) – and provide plausible alternatives for how the New England region may change over fifty years (2010 to 2060). Our models generally resulted in species occurrence and richness declines by 2060. The majority of species (7 of 10) experienced declines in regional occurrence for all NELFP scenarios, and one species experienced a projected increase in mean regional occurrence for all scenarios. Our results indicate that the NRPI and SEC drivers strongly influenced projected distribution changes compared to baseline projections. NRPI had a greater impact on distribution change for five species (coyote, moose, striped skunk, white-tailed deer, and wild turkey), while SEC had a greater impact on four species (American black bear, bobcat, raccoon, and red fox); one species (gray fox) was equally influenced by both NRPI and SEC. These results emphasize the importance of integrating both natural resource planning and socio-economic factors when addressing issues of distribution change and offer insights that can inform proactive management and conservation planning.

Predicting the ecosystem-wide impacts of eradication with limited information using a qualitative modelling approach.

Conservation-motivated eradications may cause unexpected perverse effects, and these undesirable consequences can be difficult to predict due to the paucity of information on species interactions. A probabilistic qualitative approach, which does not require extensive model parameterization, is becoming increasingly accepted and applied to conservation scenarios when information is limited. However, recent work has criticized this approach on philosophical grounds and proposed an alternative non-probabilistic Boolean analysis method, which circumvents the philosophical difficulties. There is a need for exploring the ability of this novel approach for informing conservation decisions. To do so, we applied the first real-world test of the non-probabilistic Boolean approach using a case study of management of Felis catus (feral cat) and Rattus rattus (black rat) on Christmas Island. We also applied the probabilistic approach as a contrast. Our modeling results showed that the probabilistic approach generated ambiguous outcomes, making it impractical to draw management recommendations. In contrast, the non-probabilistic Boolean approach revealed interpretable rules governing species responses, suggesting that while cat management alone is a risky strategy, the risk of negative effects of cat management on native species can be reduced by the addition of rat management. Thus, given limited resources, in combination with cat management it is prudent to prioritize rat management efforts in the habitats of potentially impacted native species of high concern and value. We conclude that the Boolean approach can be very useful when little information is available to model an ecological system and that it provides a way of identifying the potential risks and benefits of management strategies, enabling better informed conservation decision-making in the face of limited knowledge.

IUCN status of important ethno botanical plants of Udyavara village (Udupi, Karnataka)

Introduction: 1/4th of all plant species in the world are at risk of being endangered or going extinct. The IUCN Red List is a critical indicator of the health of the world’s biodiversity. It provides information about range, population size, habitat and ecology, use or trade, threats, and conservation actions that will help inform necessary conservation decisions. Hence the study was conducted to explore the status of plants of Udyavara village in IUCN red list of endangered species. Method: The Plant identification was carried in certain areas of Udyavara village by survey method. Authentication done by referring standard flora and experienced taxonomist. The enlisted drugs were studied for its status in IUCN red list. Result: The endangered plant species were explored from 276 identified plants of Udyavara village. Among them 80 evaluated species were identified with its category of endangered red list. Conclusion: The plants encountered under endangered species available in Udyavara Village of Udupi District will guide the practitioner for its judicial use in medicine. Moreover, the conservation of such plant species is possible by further cultivation of the same.

Past and future climate-driven shifts in the distribution of a warm-adapted bird species, the European Roller Coracias garrulus

ABSTRACT Capsule: The distribution range of the European Roller Coracias garrulus has undergone large changes over geological times, but although the species is warm-adapted, the human induced climate change is predicted to affect negatively the range of the currently large populations. Aim: Information on species-specific vulnerability to climate change is crucial not only for designing interventions and setting conservation goals, but also to inform conservation decision-making. Our goal was to map climate suitability for the European Roller in the Western Palaearctic under current climate, and for past (last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene) and future (2050 and 2070) climate scenarios. Methods: We used MaxEnt for species distribution modelling based on the reconstructed distribution map of the species. Results: Our results suggest that during glacial periods Rollers persisted in small southern refugia, and then spread and colonized northern latitudes during the mid-Holocene. In the future, our models forecast a shift in climatically suitable range towards northern latitudes and an overall small range contraction (4.5–5.5%). Warmer temperatures will increase climate suitability in northern countries where the species is currently declining or became locally extinct. On the other hand, wide suitable areas under current climatic conditions are predicted to become unsuitable in the future (35–38% by 2050 and 2070, respectively), significantly impacting large populations such as those in Romania, Spain, Bulgaria and Hungary. French and Italian populations are identified to be future key populations for Roller conservation. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that future climate changes will likely amplify the impacts of existing threats on the majority of large European Roller populations in Europe.

A citizen science survey discloses the current distribution of the endangered Yellow CardinalGubernatrix cristatain Argentina

SummaryThe Yellow CardinalGubernatrix cristatais a globally endangered passerine from the southern cone of South America. Because of its conspicuous plumage and very attractive song, it suffers considerably from illegal pet trade. The largest remaining populations are found in Argentina, but no coordinated efforts have been made thus far to understand better its current distribution and conservation status. During three annual surveys supported by a citizen science programme, more than 140 volunteers surveyed 644 geographical points during spring and detected 221 Yellow Cardinals. Based on the survey results, we evaluated the presence of cardinals within protected areas in Argentina and found that the species was only detected in four of them, two of which were private reserves with a low level of protection. We also found that the species was not restricted to the ‘Espinal’ ecoregion, but also inhabited ‘Monte’ and ‘Chaco’ ecoregions, which are generally drier. This citizen science programme allowed us to obtain up-to-date information on the remaining populations of the Yellow Cardinal and helped to increase public awareness about the conservation problems faced by the species. We propose some future strategies for monitoring Yellow Cardinals and taking informed conservation decisions.

Estimating population persistence for at-risk species using citizen science data

Population persistence probability is valuable for characterizing risk to species and informing listing and conservation decisions but is challenging to estimate through traditional methods for rare, data-limited species. Modeling approaches have used citizen science data to mitigate data limitations of focal species and better estimate parameters such as occupancy and detection, but their use to estimate persistence and inform conservation decisions is limited. We developed an approach to estimate persistence using only occurrence records of the target species and citizen science occurrence data of non-target species to account for search effort and imperfect detection. We applied the approach to a highly cryptic and data-limited species, the southern hognose snake (Heterodon simus), as part of its USFWS Species Status Assessment, and estimated current (in 2018) and future persistence under plausible scenarios of varying levels of urbanization, sea level rise, and management. Of 222 known populations, 133 (60%) are likely extirpated currently (persistence probability < 50%), and 165 (74%) populations are likely to be extirpated by 2080 with no additional management. Future management scenarios that included strategies to acquire and improve habitat on currently unprotected lands with existing populations lessened the estimated rate of population declines. These results can directly inform listing decisions and conservation planning for the southern hognose snake by Federal, State, and other partners. Our approach – using occurrence records and auxiliary data from non-target species to estimate population persistence – is applicable across rare and at-risk species for evaluating extinction risk with limited data and prioritizing management actions.