Influenza Transmission Research Articles

Quantifying the impact of vaccination on transmission and diversity of influenza A variants in pigs.

Global evolutionary dynamics of influenza A virus (IAV) are fundamentally driven by the extent of virus diversity generated, transmitted, and shaped in individual hosts. How vaccination affects the degree of IAV genetic diversity that can be transmitted and expanded in pigs is unknown. To evaluate the effect of vaccination on the transmission of genetically distinct IAV variants and their diversity after transmission in pigs, we examined the whole genome of IAV recovered from the nasal cavities of pigs vaccinated with different influenza immunization regimens after being infected simultaneously by H1N1 and H3N2 IAVs using a seeder pig model. We found that the seeder pigs harbored more diversified virus populations than the contact pigs. Among contact pigs, H3N2 and H1N1 viruses recovered from pigs vaccinated with a single dose of an unmatched modified live vaccine generally accumulated more extensive genetic mutations than non-vaccinated pigs. Furthermore, the non-sterilizing immunity elicited by the single-dose-modified live vaccine may have exerted positive selection on H1 antigenic regions as we detected significantly higher nonsynonymous but lower synonymous evolutionary rates in H1 antigenic regions than non-antigenic regions. In addition, we observed that the vaccinated pigs shared significantly less proportion of H3N2 variants with seeder pigs than unvaccinated pigs. These results indicated that vaccination might reduce the impact of transmitted influenza variants on the overall diversity of IAV populations harbored in recipient pigs and that within-host genetic selection of IAV is more likely to occur in pigs vaccinated with improperly matched vaccines.IMPORTANCEUnderstanding how vaccination shapes the diversity of influenza variants that transmit and propagate among pigs is essential for designing effective IAV surveillance and control programs. Current knowledge about the transmission of IAV variants has primarily been explored in humans during natural infection. However, how immunity elicited by improperly matched vaccines affects the degree of IAV genetic diversity that can be transmitted and expanded in pigs at the whole-genome level is unknown. We analyzed IAV sequences from samples collected daily from experimentally infected pigs vaccinated with various protocols in a field-represented IAV co-infection model. We found that vaccine-induced non-sterilizing immunity might promote genetic variation on the IAV genome and drive positive selection at antigenic sites during infection. In addition, a smaller proportion of H3N2 viral variants were shared between seeder pigs and vaccinated pigs, suggesting the influence of vaccination on shaping the virus genomic diversity in recipient pigs during the transmission events.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce influenza transmission in households: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Influenza pandemic plans often recommend non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in household settings, including hand hygiene and face masks. We reviewed the evidence supporting the recommendations of these measures to prevent the spread of influenza in households. We performed systematic reviews between 26 May and 30 August 2022 in Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL to identify evidence for the effectiveness of selected measures recommended by representative national influenza pandemic plans. We prioritized evidence from randomized controlled trials conducted during influenza pandemics and seasonal influenza epidemics. Fixed-effects models were used to estimate the overall effects. Systematic reviews were registered in the OSF registry (https://osf.io/8kyth). We selected 9 NPIs for evidence review. We identified 9 randomized-controlled trials related to hand hygiene and face masks in household settings. 2 studies reported that measures could delay the introduction of influenza virus infections into households. However, we did not identify evidence from randomized controlled trials that indicated a substantial effect of hand hygiene and face masks in preventing the spread of influenza within households. Limited evidence indicated that within-household measures may likely be effective only when implemented before or as soon as possible after symptom onset in an infected case. Improving the evidence base for NPIs in households and elsewhere is a continuing priority. World Health Organization and the Strategic Topic Grants Scheme.

Multiplexed Antibody Sequencing and Profiling of the Human Hemagglutinin-specific Memory B Cell Response following Influenza Vaccination.

Influenza virus is a highly contagious respiratory pathogen causing between 9.4 and 41 million infections per year in the United States in the last decade. Annual vaccination is recommended by the World Health Organization, with the goal to reduce influenza severity and transmission. Ag-specific single B cell sequencing methodologies have opened up new avenues into the dissection of the Ab response to influenza virus. The improvement of these methodologies is pivotal to reduce the associated costs and optimize the operational workflow and throughput, especially in the context of multiple samples. In this study, PBMCs and serum samples were collected longitudinally from eight influenza vaccinees either vaccinated yearly for four consecutive influenza seasons or once for one season. Following the serological and B cell profiling of their polyclonal Ab response to a panel of historical, recent, and next-generation influenza vaccine hemagglutinin (HA) and virus strains, a single multiplexed Ag-specific single B cell sequencing run allowed to capture HA-specific memory B cells that were analyzed for preferential Ig H chain/L chain pairing, isotype/subclass usage, and the presence of public BCR clonotypes across participants. Binding and functional profiles of representative private and public clonotypes confirmed their HA specificity, and their overall binding and functional activity were consistent with those observed at the polyclonal level. Collectively, this high-resolution and multiplexed Ab repertoire analysis demonstrated the validity of this optimized methodology in capturing Ag-specific BCR clonotypes, even in the context of a rare B cell population, such as in the case of the peripheral Ag-specific memory B cells.

Knowledge and Awareness on Swine Origin Influenza A(H1N1) Among Health Care Providers and Civil Employees in a Tertiary Level Hospital, Dhaka Bangladesh

Background: Swine Origin Influenza A(H1N1) viruses create yearly epidemics and rarely pandemics that cost millions of lives worldwide. Health care providers and civil employees at hospital can help in prevention of transmission of influenza by acquiring knowledge and awareness. Methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted at Combined Military Hospital Dhaka from July to December 2023. Total 213 participants were interviewed that comprises doctors, nurses, medical assistants and civil employees. Purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. Face to face interview was done through a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Data were analysed by using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.0. Informed consent were obtained from the respondents addressing proper ethical issues. Results: In this study out of total participants 70.4% had previously heard about H1N1 influenza A. Total 38% participants said that internet was found as major source of information. Among the participants 64.3% told fever was common symptom and use of facemask at duty hour was consented by 33.8% as an important means for prevention. Maximum (66.3%) civil employees do not know about washing hand after contact as a preventive procedure leading to spread of infection. Maintaining distance as preventive measures observed by 13.6% participants. Moreover, all participants were aware of transmission through droplet infection except civil employees. In the present study, 50% doctors and 38.1% nurses had knowledge that drug Oseltamivir is very effective against swine Influenza A(H1N1). Remarkable differences were identified among doctors, nurses, medical assistants and civil employees regarding knowledge of quarantine and availability of vaccine. RT-PCR laboratory test is the confirmatory method to defect swine influenza A(H1N1) were exactly known by 9.9% participants, while 70.9% participants don't know the confirm diagnostic method. Conclusion: Knowledge and awareness regarding swine influenza A(H1N1) was low among study participants. For controlling epidemic or even pandemic, awareness by mass media is important. Remarkable gap observed regarding knowledge and awareness about swine influenza A(H1N1) among the health care providers and civil employees, needs to be addressed by proper training and motivation. Bangladesh Armed Forces Med J Vol 57 No (1) June 2024, pp 1-7

Reverse zoonotic transmission of human seasonal influenza to a pig herd in Sweden.

In January 2023, a Swedish piglet-producing farm with 2800 sows in production (SIP) was diagnosed with IAV (Influenza A virus) and the isolates were shown to cluster with the human seasonal influenza (2022/2023). In December 2022, employees with flu like symptoms tended to the pigs and a few weeks later, respiratory signs appeared in different age groups; sows in farrowing units were anorectic and pyrectic. Lung and nasal swabs were tested positive for IAV and other respiratory infectious agents. Blanket vaccination against H1N1pdm09 of sows and gilts was initiated but discontinued for sows after 2 treatments. Biosecurity measures aiming to reduce the spread of virus were implemented. However, the compliance to follow the protocol was moderate.Combining immunity and strict sanitary measures is crucial to control virus circulation. As the farmer discontinued sow vaccination and just partly increased biosecurity, this may have contributed to ongoing virus circulation and clinical signs in pigs, even 5 months post-diagnosis. Although H1N1pdm09 already had been found in the herd in 2017, there were no clinical signs or diagnostic results indicating continuous circulation of this or other IAV strains afterwards. However, this cannot be entirely excluded. Swine IAVs pose a risk of reintroduction into the human population, highlighting the importance of vaccination of farm workers against seasonal influenza.

Modulation of human-to-swine influenza a virus adaptation by the neuraminidase low-affinity calcium-binding pocket

Frequent interspecies transmission of human influenza A viruses (FLUAV) to pigs contrasts with the limited subset that establishes in swine. While hemagglutinin mutations are recognized for their role in cross-species transmission, the contribution of neuraminidase remains understudied. Here, the NA’s role in FLUAV adaptation was investigated using a swine-adapted H3N2 reassortant virus with human-derived HA and NA segments. Adaptation in pigs resulted in mutations in both HA (A138S) and NA (D113A). The D113A mutation abolished calcium (Ca2+) binding in the low-affinity Ca2+-binding pocket of NA, enhancing enzymatic activity and thermostability under Ca2+-depleted conditions, mirroring swine-origin FLUAV NA behavior. Structural analysis predicts that swine-adapted H3N2 viruses lack Ca2+ binding in this pocket. Further, residue 93 in NA (G93 in human, N93 in swine) also influences Ca2+ binding and impacts NA activity and thermostability, even when D113 is present. These findings demonstrate that mutations in influenza A virus surface proteins alter evolutionary trajectories following interspecies transmission and reveal distinct mechanisms modulating NA activity during FLUAV adaptation, highlighting the importance of Ca2+ binding in the low-affinity calcium-binding pocket.

Meeting Report: Controlled Human Influenza Virus Infection Model Studies: Current Status and Future Directions for Innovation.

On November 13-14, 2023, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) in partnership with the Task Force for Global Health, Flu Lab, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention convened a meeting on controlled human influenza virus infection model (CHIVIM) studies to review the current research landscape of CHIVIM studies and to generate actionable next steps. Presentations and panel discussions highlighted CHIVIM use cases, regulatory and ethical considerations, innovations, networks and standardization, and the utility of using CHIVIM in vaccine development. This report summarizes the presentations, discussions, key takeaways, and future directions for innovations in CHIVIMs. Experts agreed that CHIVIM studies can be valuable for the study of influenza infection, immune response, and transmission. Furthermore, they may have utility in the development of vaccines and other medical countermeasures; however, the use of CHIVIMs to de-risk clinical development of investigational vaccines should employ a cautious approach. Endpoints in CHIVIM studies should be tailored to the specific use case. CHIVIM studies can provide useful supporting data for vaccine licensure but are not required and do not obviate the need for the conduct of field efficacy trials. Future directions in this field include the continued expansion of capacity to conduct CHIVIM studies, development of a broad panel of challenge viruses and assay reagents and standards that can be shared, streamlining of manufacturing processes, the exploration of targeted delivery of virus to the lower respiratory tract, efforts to more closely replicate natural influenza disease in CHIVIM, alignment on a definition of breadth to facilitate development of more broadly protective/universal vaccine approaches, and continued collaboration between stakeholders.

Respiratory pathogen dynamics in community fever cases: Jiangsu Province, China (2023–2024)

BackgroundRespiratory infectious diseases have the highest incidence among infectious diseases worldwide. Currently, global monitoring of respiratory pathogens primarily focuses on influenza and coronaviruses. This study included influenza and other common respiratory pathogens to establish a local respiratory pathogen spectrum. We investigated and analyzed the co-infection patterns of these pathogens and explored the impact of lifting non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the transmission of influenza and other respiratory pathogens. Additionally, we used a predictive model for infectious diseases, utilizing the commonly used An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA), which can effectively forecast disease incidence.MethodsFrom June 2023 to February 2024, we collected influenza-like illness (ILI) cases weekly from the community in Xuanwu District, Nanjing, and obtained 2046 samples. We established a spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing and analysed the age distribution and clinical symptom distribution of various pathogens. We compared age, gender, symptom counts, and viral loads between individuals with co-infections and those with single infections. An autoregressive comprehensive moving average model (ARIMA) was constructed to predict the incidence of respiratory infectious diseases.ResultsAmong 2046 samples, the total detection rate of respiratory pathogen nucleic acids was 53.37% (1092/2046), with influenza A virus 479 cases (23.41%), influenza B virus 224 cases (10.95%), and HCoV 95 cases (4.64%) being predominant. Some pathogens were statistically significant in age and number of symptoms. The positive rate of mixed infections was 6.11% (125/2046). There was no significant difference in age or number of symptoms between co-infection and simple infection. After multiple iterative analyses, an ARIMA model (0,1,4), (0,0,0) was established as the optimal model, with an R2 value of 0.930, indicating good predictive performance.ConclusionsThe spectrum of respiratory pathogens in Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, was complex in the past. The primary age groups of different viruses were different, causing various symptoms, and the co-infection of viruses did not correlate with the age and gender of patients. The ARIMA model estimated future incidence, which plateaued in subsequent months.

A comprehensive review of influenza B virus, its biological and clinical aspects.

Influenza B virus (IBV) stands as a paradox, often overshadowed by its more notorious counterpart, influenza A virus (IAV). Yet, it remains a captivating and elusive subject of scientific inquiry. Influenza B is important because it causes seasonal flu outbreaks that can lead to severe respiratory illnesses, including bronchitis, pneumonia, and exacerbations of chronic conditions like asthma. Limitations in the influenza B virus's epidemiological, immunological, and etiological evolution must be addressed promptly. This comprehensive review covers evolutionary epidemiology and pathogenesis, host-virus interactions, viral isolation and propagation, advanced molecular detection assays, vaccine composition and no animal reservoir for influenza B virus. Complex viral etiology begins with intranasal transmission of influenza B virus with the release of a segmented RNA genome that attacks host cell machinery for transcription and translation within the nucleus and the release of viral progeny. Influenza B virus prevalence in domesticated and wild canines, sea mammals, and birds is frequent, yet there is no zoonosis. The periodic circulation of influenza B virus indicates a 1-3-year cycle for monophyletic strain replacement within the Victoria strain due to frequent antigenic drift in the HA near the receptor-binding site (RBS), while the antigenic stability of Yamagata viruses portrays a more conservative evolutionary pattern. Additionally, this article outlines contemporary antiviral strategies, including pharmacological interventions and vaccination efforts. This article serves as a resource for researchers, healthcare professionals, and anyone interested in the mysterious nature of the influenza B virus. It provides valuable insights and knowledge essential for comprehending and effectively countering this viral foe, which continues to pose a significant public health threat.

Mechanistic Models of Influenza Transmission in Commercial Swine Populations: A Systematic Review.

Influenza in commercial swine populations leads to reduced gain in fattening pigs and reproductive issues in sows. This literature review aims to analyze the contributions of mathematical modeling in understanding influenza transmission and control among domestic swine. Twenty-two full-text research articles from seven databases were reviewed, categorized into swine-only (n = 13), swine-avian (n = 3), and swine-human models (n = 6). Strains of influenza models were limited to H1N1 (n = 7) and H3N2 (n = 1), with many studies generalizing the disease as influenza A. Half of the studies (n = 14) considered at least one control strategy, with vaccination being the primary investigated strategy. Vaccination was shown to reduce disease prevalence in single animal cohorts. With a continuous flow of new susceptible animals, such as in farrow-to-finish farms, it was shown that influenza became endemic despite vaccination strategies such as mass or batch-to-batch vaccination. Human vaccination was shown to be effective at mitigating human-to-human influenza transmission and to reduce spillover events from pigs. Current control strategies cannot stop influenza in livestock or prevent viral reassortment in swine, so mechanistic models are crucial for developing and testing new biosecurity measures to prevent future swine pandemics.

Influenza virus shedding and symptoms: Dynamics and implications from a multiseason household transmission study.

Isolation of symptomatic infectious persons can reduce influenza transmission. However, virus shedding that occurs without symptoms will be unaffected by such measures. Identifying effective isolation strategies for influenza requires understanding the interplay between individual virus shedding and symptom presentation. From 2017 to 2020, we conducted a case-ascertained household transmission study using influenza real-time RT-qPCR testing of nasal swabs and daily symptom diary reporting for up to 7 days after enrolment (≤14 days after index onset). We assumed real-time RT-qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values were indicators of quantitative virus shedding and used symptom diaries to create a score that tracked influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms (fever, cough, or sore throat). We fit phenomenological nonlinear mixed-effects models stratified by age and vaccination status and estimated two quantities influencing isolation effectiveness: shedding before symptom onset and shedding that might occur once isolation ends. We considered different isolation end points (including 24 h after fever resolution or 5 days after symptom onset) and assumptions about the infectiousness of Ct shedding trajectories. Of the 116 household contacts with ≥2 positive tests for longitudinal analyses, 105 (91%) experienced ≥1 ILI symptom. On average, children <5 years experienced greater peak shedding, longer durations of shedding, and elevated ILI symptom scores compared with other age groups. Most individuals (63/105) shed <10% of their total shed virus before symptom onset, and shedding after isolation varied substantially across individuals, isolation end points, and infectiousness assumptions. Our results can inform strategies to reduce transmission from symptomatic individuals infected with influenza.

Stochastic modeling of influenza transmission: Insights into disease dynamics and epidemic management

The stochastic SEIR model was employed to investigate the dynamics of influenza transmission. By incorporating transmission rates and prevalence ratios, this model provides the most comprehensive explanation of the virus’s unpredictable dissemination. To simulate the stochastic components of influenza transmission, we implemented conventional Brownian motions and stochastic differential equations. The investigation examines the uniqueness and presence of the solutions to demonstrate the conditions needed for eliminating the infection under random disturbances. The transmission rate coefficient (β) strongly impacts disease transmission speed. as demonstrated by the simulation results.Thus, the proper usage of safe transmission control methods is another decisive factor that determines the outcome of epidemics. Actual data of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was used. The results highlighted practicality of stochastic models and their usefulness to address and formulate and even execute the public health related policies. Regarding this, this study sets a high bar for other studies on modeling viral diseases on the grounds that stochastic and dynamic factors are also very important. These subsequent improvements in the model shall enable us to pinpoint the best strategies for the prevention and eradication of influenza and any other subsequent epidemic diseases, with reference to epidemic, epidemiology and public health.

Estimating the generation time for influenza transmission using household data in the United States.

The generation time, representing the interval between infections in primary and secondary cases, is essential for understanding and predicting the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza, including the real-time effective reproduction number (Rt). However, comprehensive generation time estimates for seasonal influenza, especially post the 2009 influenza pandemic, are lacking. We estimated the generation time utilizing data from a 7-site case-ascertained household study in the United States over two influenza seasons, 2021/2022 and 2022/2023. More than 200 individuals who tested positive for influenza and their household contacts were enrolled within 7 days of the first illness in the household. All participants were prospectively followed for 10 days completing daily symptom diaries and collecting nasal swabs, which were tested for influenza via RT-PCR. We analyzed these data by modifying a previously published Bayesian data augmentation approach that imputes infection times of cases to obtain both intrinsic (assuming no susceptible depletion) and realized (observed within household) generation times. We assessed the robustness of the generation time estimate by varying the incubation period, and generated estimates of the proportion of transmission before symptomatic onset, infectious period, and latent period. We estimated a mean intrinsic generation time of 3.2 (95% credible interval, CrI: 2.9-3.6) days, with a realized household generation time of 2.8 (95% CrI: 2.7-3.0) days. The generation time exhibited limited sensitivity to incubation period variation. Estimates of the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, the infectious period, and the latent period were sensitive to variation in incubation periods. Our study contributes to the ongoing efforts to refine estimates of the generation time for influenza. Our estimates, derived from recent data following the COVID-19 pandemic, are consistent with previous pre-pandemic estimates, and will be incorporated into real-time Rt estimation efforts.

Forecasting influenza epidemics in China using transmission dynamic model with absolute humidity

BackgroundAn influenza forecasting system is critical to influenza epidemic preparedness. Low temperature has long been recognized as a condition favoring influenza epidemic, yet it fails to justify the summer influenza peak in tropics/subtropics. Recent studies have suggested that absolute humidity (AH) had a U-shape relationship with influenza survival and transmission across climate zones, indicating that a unified influenza forecasting system could be established for China with various climate conditions. MethodsOur study has generated weekly influenza forecasts by season and type/subtype in northern and southern China from 2011 to 2021, using a forecasting system combining an AH-driven susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Model performance was assessed by sensitivity and specificity in predicting epidemics, and by accuracies in predicting peak timing and magnitude. ResultsOur forecast system can generally well predict seasonal influenza epidemics (mean sensitivity>87.5%; mean specificity >80%). The average forecast accuracies were 82% and 60% for peak timing and magnitude at 3–6 weeks ahead for northern China, higher than those of 42% and 20% for southern China. The accuracy was generally better when the forecast was made closer to the actual peak time. DiscussionThe established AH-driven forecasting system can generally well predict the occurrence of seasonal influenza epidemics in China.

A decavalent composite mRNA vaccine against both influenza and COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has had a persistent and significant impact on global public health for 4 years. Recently, there has been a resurgence of seasonal influenza transmission worldwide. The co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal influenza viruses results in a dual burden on communities. Additionally, the pandemic potential of zoonotic influenza viruses, such as avian Influenza A/H5N1 and A/H7N9, remains a concern. Therefore, a combined vaccine against all these respiratory diseases is in urgent need. mRNA vaccines, with their superior efficacy, speed in development, flexibility, and cost-effectiveness, offer a promising solution for such infectious diseases and potential future pandemics. In this study, we present FLUCOV-10, a novel 10-valent mRNA vaccine created from our proven platform. This vaccine encodes hemagglutinin (HA) proteins from four seasonal influenza viruses and two avian influenza viruses with pandemic potential, as well as spike proteins from four SARS-CoV-2 variants. A two-dose immunization with the FLUCOV-10 elicited robust immune responses in mice, producing IgG antibodies, neutralizing antibodies, and antigen-specific cellular immune responses against all the vaccine-matched viruses of influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Remarkably, the FLUCOV-10 immunization provided complete protection in mouse models against both homologous and heterologous strains of influenza and SARS-CoV-2. These results highlight the potential of FLUCOV-10 as an effective vaccine candidate for the prevention of influenza and COVID-19.IMPORTANCEAmidst the ongoing and emerging respiratory viral threats, particularly the concurrent and sequential spread of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza, our research introduces FLUCOV-10. This novel mRNA-based combination vaccine, designed to counteract both influenza and COVID-19, by incorporating genes for surface glycoproteins from various influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2 variants. This combination vaccine was highly effective in preclinical trials, generating strong immune responses and ensuring protection against both matching and heterologous strains of influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2. FLUCOV-10 represents a significant step forward in our ability to address respiratory viral threats, showcasing potential as a singular, adaptable vaccine solution for global health challenges.

Molecular epidemiology and phylogenetic analysis of influenza viruses A (H3N2) and B/Victoria during the COVID-19 pandemic in Guangdong, China

BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical measures and travel restrictions have halted the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and influenza. Nonetheless, with COVID-19 restrictions lifted, an unanticipated outbreak of the influenza B/Victoria virus in late 2021 and another influenza H3N2 outbreak in mid-2022 occurred in Guangdong, southern China. The mechanism underlying this phenomenon remains unknown. To better prepare for potential influenza outbreaks during COVID-19 pandemic, we studied the molecular epidemiology and phylogenetics of influenza A(H3N2) and B/Victoria that circulated during the COVID-19 pandemic in this region.MethodsFrom January 1, 2018 to December 31, 2022, we collected throat swabs from 173,401 patients in Guangdong who had acute respiratory tract infections. Influenza viruses in the samples were tested using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction, followed by subtype identification and sequencing of hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genes. Phylogenetic and genetic diversity analyses were performed on both genes from 403 samples. A rigorous molecular clock was aligned with the phylogenetic tree to measure the rate of viral evolution and the root-to-tip distance within strains in different years was assessed using regression curve models to determine the correlation.ResultsDuring the early period of COVID-19 control, various influenza viruses were nearly undetectable in respiratory specimens. When control measures were relaxed in January 2020, the influenza infection rate peaked at 4.94% (39/789) in December 2021, with the influenza B/Victoria accounting for 87.18% (34/39) of the total influenza cases. Six months later, the influenza infection rate again increased and peaked at 11.34% (255/2248) in June 2022; influenza A/H3N2 accounted for 94.51% (241/255) of the total influenza cases in autumn 2022. The diverse geographic distribution of HA genes of B/Victoria and A/H3N2 had drastically reduced, and most strains originated from China. The rate of B/Victoria HA evolution (3.11 × 10−3, P < 0.05) was 1.7 times faster than before the COVID-19 outbreak (1.80 × 10−3, P < 0.05). Likewise, the H3N2 HA gene’s evolution rate was 7.96 × 10−3 (P < 0.05), which is 2.1 times faster than the strains’ pre-COVID-19 evolution rate (3.81 × 10−3, P < 0.05).ConclusionsDespite the extraordinarily low detection rate of influenza infection, concealed influenza transmission may occur between individuals during strict COVID-19 control. This ultimately leads to the accumulation of viral mutations and accelerated evolution of H3N2 and B/Victoria viruses. Monitoring the evolution of influenza may provide insights and alerts regarding potential epidemics in the future.

Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023.

Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated. Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023). Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children.

Forecasting of influenza activity and associated hospital admission burden and estimating the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on 2019/20 winter season in Hong Kong.

Like other tropical and subtropical regions, influenza viruses can circulate year-round in Hong Kong. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant decrease in influenza activity. The objective of this study was to retrospectively forecast influenza activity during the year 2020 and assess the impact of COVID-19 public health social measures (PHSMs) on influenza activity and hospital admissions in Hong Kong. Using weekly surveillance data on influenza virus activity in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2019, we developed a statistical modeling framework to forecast influenza virus activity and associated hospital admissions. We conducted short-term forecasts (1-4 weeks ahead) and medium-term forecasts (1-13 weeks ahead) for the year 2020, assuming no PHSMs were implemented against COVID-19. We estimated the reduction in transmissibility, peak magnitude, attack rates, and influenza-associated hospitalization rate resulting from these PHSMs. For short-term forecasts, mean ambient ozone concentration and school holidays were found to contribute to better prediction performance, while absolute humidity and ozone concentration improved the accuracy of medium-term forecasts. We observed a maximum reduction of 44.6% (95% CI: 38.6% - 51.9%) in transmissibility, 75.5% (95% CI: 73.0% - 77.6%) in attack rate, 41.5% (95% CI: 13.9% - 55.7%) in peak magnitude, and 63.1% (95% CI: 59.3% - 66.3%) in cumulative influenza-associated hospitalizations during the winter-spring period of the 2019/2020 season in Hong Kong. The implementation of PHSMs to control COVID-19 had a substantial impact on influenza transmission and associated burden in Hong Kong. Incorporating information on factors influencing influenza transmission improved the accuracy of our predictions.

Developing a Research Network of Early Warning Systems for Infectious Diseases Transmission Between China and Australia.

This article offers a thorough review of current early warning systems (EWS) and advocates for establishing a unified research network for EWS in infectious diseases between China and Australia. We propose that future research should focus on improving infectious disease surveillance by integrating data from both countries to enhance predictive models and intervention strategies. The article highlights the need for standardized data formats and terminologies, improved surveillance capabilities, and the development of robust spatiotemporal predictive models. It concludes by examining the potential benefits and challenges of this collaborative approach and its implications for global infectious disease surveillance. This is particularly relevant to the ongoing project, early warning systems for Infectious Diseases between China and Australia (NetEWAC), which aims to use seasonal influenza as a case study to analyze influenza trends, peak activities, and potential inter-hemispheric transmission patterns. The project seeks to integrate data from both hemispheres to improve outbreak predictions and develop a spatiotemporal predictive modeling system for seasonal influenza transmission based on socio-environmental factors.

Healthcare workers’ perspectives on mandatory influenza vaccination: a scoping review

Background: Vaccination is efficacious at preventing influenza disease transmission, morbidity and mortality. Benefits of influenza vaccination for healthcare workers (HCW) are emphasized, yet vaccine uptake among HCW remains suboptimal. Mandatory vaccination programs may increase influenza vaccine uptake, however, attitudes and beliefs of HCW towards these mandates are not well known. Aims: This scoping review examined the attitudes and beliefs of HCW to ascertain the barriers and enablers to the implementation and acceptance of mandatory vaccination programs in healthcare settings. Design: Scoping review, guided by the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews. Methods: Literature published between 2019 and 2023 was reviewed from five electronic databases, between June and October 2023. Data sources: Quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods studies were obtained. Studies were limited to full-text English articles, published within peer-reviewed journals over the last five years. Data were extracted by both authors and documented using a modified version of the JBI’s scoping review data extraction instrument, and analyzed thematically. Results: The original search yielded 319 articles. Forty-two articles were screened, with 10 studies included. Most HCW had negative views towards mandatory influenza vaccination, influenced by geographical location, age and discipline. The protection of patients and affordability/accessibility of vaccination were described as enablers to the acceptance of mandatory measures. The belief that mandatory vaccination was a violation of autonomy and misconceptions concerning influenza transmission, vaccine mechanism of action, side effects and effectiveness, were described as common barriers. Conclusions: Health services must carefully consider the context in which mandatory vaccination programs are implemented and employ strategies that incorporate education and promote vaccine accessibility, affordability and HCW autonomy. The quality of evidence retrieved was moderate to poor, with high heterogeneity between studies. Minimal Australian research was evident, limiting the generalisability of findings. These results should be interpreted with caution and further high-quality research is recommended.