Export-oriented Research Articles

Relationship Between Export and Economic Growth: Evidence from West African Countries

The export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH) postulates that export is a major driver of economic growth. This study tests this hypothesis and further analyses the determinants of exports in the case of West African countries. An annual panel data spanning from 2008 to 2018 was used. Findings from the system GMM and OLS estimations validate the ELGH in West Africa. The results also reveal that foreign direct investment, employment, remittances, land area and infrastructure are significant boosters of export while population, real effective exchange rate and taxes on international trade are detrimental to export performance in the region. The study recommends the relaxation of taxes especially on international trade to encourage businesses that produce to feed the export sectors, provide an enabling environment for businesses and also attract foreign investors. JEL Codes: F14, F21, O55

Informatization as a Driver for the Development of Agricultural Exports in Russia

It has been established that informatization which is “end-to-end” in nature increases the connectivity of the world economy in general and its regional and sectoral subsystems. This is good for development of exports of products and services. The implementation of information technology platforms created with the use of modern informatization technologies is a driver for the development of export activities of agricultural enterprises while the platform informatization should cover the majority of agricultural exporters from near and far abroad.

Simulation–optimisation approach for sustainable planning of intermodal logistics in the Brazilian grain export industry

Planning nationwide sustainable logistics for grain exports at a tactical level assumes flexibility in handling uncertainties. Despite the dynamic operations, the solution’s approach focuses mainly on optimisation, leaving out the queuing requirements. This paper presents a simulation–optimisation approach for planning the Brazilian intermodal grain export chain by integrating trucks, railways, and port terminal operations. We evaluate a base scenario, aiming to minimise CO2 emissions in rail transport, meeting demand requirements, and three alternative planning scenarios concerning demand retraction, trend, and expansion. The sustainable grain transportation plan of the base scenario shows a 66.8 kilo tons CO2/year emission reduction while increasing the exports by 2.51% (approximately 146 kilo tons grains/year) and a contribution to profit of $43.82 million in the short term. Scenario analyses open discussions about sustainable investments in intermodal transport for the medium and long term. The proposed approach is suitable for other commodity chains, representing a step towards consistently applying environmentally oriented supply chain planning.

Factors affecting high-quality entrepreneurial performance in small- and medium-sized family firms

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to measure the high-quality entrepreneurial efficiency of family-owned small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) while exploring the potential determinants of their performance. This study places particular emphasis on the firms' technological competencies and internationalization efforts. The authors aim to shed light on the internal and external characteristics that impact the efficiency of family SMEs.Design/methodology/approach This study adopts a two-stage approach. In the first stage, a data envelopment analysis model is utilized to measure the high-quality entrepreneurial efficiency of family SMEs. To achieve this, this study considered as outputs three key quality aspects of entrepreneurship, namely innovativeness, export orientation and turnover rate, while the inputs were the number of employees and the business environment. Then, in the second stage, the efficiency scores are regressed against a set of environmental factors that may affect the efficiency. The proposed efficiency measurement models are utilized with a particularly rich dataset of 1,910 family SMEs from 35 developed countries.Findings The results demonstrated that the efficiency of family SMEs primarily engaged in the production of goods was significantly higher than those providing services. Importantly, the presence of barriers related to innovation and digitalization had a pronounced negative impact on efficiency. Additionally, scale-up firms exhibited higher levels of efficiency. When examining family SMEs within their national context, it was observed that non-EU countries and countries with a higher gross domestic product displayed significantly higher efficiencies.Originality/value The findings of this research provide guidance for the development of entrepreneurship-oriented policies that consider both the internal characteristics of family SMEs and the diverse socioeconomic contexts in which they operate.

Refinement of Drug Regulation and Russian Pharmaceutical Export

Strategy on development of the pharmaceutical industry for the period up to 2030 (Pharma-2030 Strategy), adopted in the Russian Federation this year, includes tasks to further saturate the national market with domestic medicines and to “realize the export potential of the pharmaceutical industry”. National drug regulation has a significant stimulating effect on the export of medicines. To identify the most important elements of this regulation related to the development and maintenance of sustainable pharmaceutical export, different aspects of national drug regulatory systems were studied. Countries belonging to different segments of the global pharmaceutical export market were included in the research. The results of the analysis of drug regulation in top export countries were published earlier. This article presents the results for pharmerging countries with a fastgrowing pharmaceutical sector and formulated common strategies for these countries that are aimed at achieving leadership positions of the national pharmaceutical industry in both the domestic and foreign markets. Several measures have been proposed for inclusion in the implementation plan for the Pharma-2030 Strategy, which, in our opinion, will contribute to achieving the goals set both to stimulate exports and to saturate the Russian market with domestic medicines.

Increasing Information Transparency of the Results of a Regional Export Project in the Urals Federal District

The influence of information on the activities of the authorities is increasing. The problem of the low popularity of the national project "International Cooperation and Export" remains. The purpose of the article is to generalize the theory and develop a methodology for assessing the information transparency of the results of the regional project "Systemic measures for the development of international cooperation and exports" of the regions of the Ural Federal District and to develop applied recommendations. The author has developed signs of information transparency: relevance (relevance, focus, timeliness),sufficiency (completeness, structuring) of information. A program of research and methodological tools for score assessment based on content analysis of government websites and open sources has been developed. The applied signifi cance lies in the systematization of the economic practice of information transparency in the regions of the Ural Federal District. The most significant problem is the lack of linking information with the approved project results. The value of the information relevance subindex (from 0.11 points in the Kurgan Region to 2.50 points in the Tyumen Region) and the information sufficiency subindex (from 0.02 points in the Sverdlovsk Region to 2.22 points in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug) were calculated. Practical recommendations have been developed for the authorities: relevance and focus, reliability of information, comparability of planned and actual values, structuring and detailing of information. The obtained principles of information relevance can be used as a basis for the development of appropriate standards for the provision of information.

ГЛОБАЛЬНА БАГАТОПОЛЯРНІСТЬ: НОВІ МОЖЛИВОСТІ Й ЗАГРОЗИ ДЛЯ РОЗВИТКУ УКРАЇНСЬКОГО ЕКСПОРТУ

Одним з актуальних напрямів сучасної економічної науки є передбачення наслідків глобальної багатополярності. Їх аналіз у сферах міжнародної політики і міжнародного торговельного права дав підстави для висунення припущення, що глобальна багатополярність створює як нові можливості, так і додаткові загрози для розвитку менших економік, що розвиваються (smaller developing economies). Для перевірки припущення на основі даних, зібраних у сфері економіки, запропоновано ці можливості й загрози проаналізувати як сильні й слабкі торговельні стимули, що формують країни – нові реальні й потенційні полюси глобального зростання при закупівлі в менших економіках, що розвиваються, сировини і продукції підвищеної технологічної складності. Для реалізації цього наукового методу розроблено набір методологічних і методичних підходів для уточнення переліку й рейтингування реальних і потенційних полюсів глобального зростання, оцінювання їх часток у закупівлі продукції підвищеної технологічної складності.Апробація запропонованих наукових підходів на прикладі України виявила, що на міжнародних ринках додатковий попит Китаю і потенційних полюсів глобального зростання з-поміж країн з ринками, що прискорено розвиваються, створює сильні торговельні стимули для пожвавлення економічної активності у вітчизняних експортних галузях з виробництва сировини і продукції її неглибокої переробки, а також слабкі – у галузях з виробництва продукції підвищеної технологічної складності. Тому подальше стрімке інерційне розширення торгівлі України з даними країнами неодмінно посилюватиме ризики уповільнення якісних (структурних) змін у вітчизняній зовнішній торгівлі на користь продукції підвищеної технологічної складності. Отримані емпіричні дані підтверджують припущення західних учених, що глобальна багатополярність створює додаткові загрози для розвитку менших економік, що розвиваються, оскільки стимулює збереження за ними ролі постачальника сировинних ресурсів на світові ринки в майбутньому.

Import Uncertainty and Export Dynamics

Abstract A supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Firms are constantly managing uncertainties, including unexpected delays in the provision of a critical input that can slow down or halt the production process, possibly making the manufacturer miss a delivery deadline. As most exporters are also importers of intermediate goods, supply chain unreliability related to import processing times at the border could impact downstream export dynamics. The role of unpredictability in border-clearance times for imports in manufacturing firms’ entry, exit, and survival in export markets is investigated using the PPML estimator on a rich dataset built on firm-level information for 48 developing countries over 2006–2014. Uncertainty in the time to clear imported inputs impacts neither the entry nor the exit rate, but translates into lower survival rates for new exporters, reducing the number of firms that continue serving the foreign market beyond their first year of entry. This effect grows larger over time, owing to rising reputational costs to input-importing exporters and is mainly driven by South-North trade, possibly reflecting the time-sensitivity of buyers in developed countries. Results also reveal heterogeneous effects across export industries, and the mediating role of sunk costs of entry in foreign markets, which attenuate the negative effect of uncertainty on survival rates as firms delay exiting the export market.

Analysis of the chemical crop protection market in Russia

The research is devoted to the analysis of the current state of chemical crop protection market in Russia. Significant industry growth has occurred in last decade due to the attractiveness of agriculture as an export-oriented industry. Russian agricultural products are in stable demand all over the world. Countries in the Middle East, South-Eastern Asia and Africa with constantly growing population rely on foodstuff import, including from the Russian Federation. Thus, country makes a significant contribution in a global food security. However, in order to develop and increase competitiveness, Russian farmers need to intensify crop production. One of technological improvement elements, which let growers to get sufficient yield and quality, is application of innovative chemical crop protection products. Pesticides help farmers struggle with crop diseases, pests and weeds, as well as minimize adverse climate factors in some cases. Agrochemicals market in Russia is represented not only by foreign players, but by domestic manufacturers as well. Market share of these two groups in value terms of market players is approximately equal. However, it’s worth mentioning, that like in many other industries, this sector is heavily dependent on import inputs. Major part of components for local pesticide production are imported and key technological process is constrained as a type of mixing necessary inputs in proper way. Domestic business, together with Russian Government and, probably, in cooperation with some international players, needs to solve the problem of deepening the production cycle, look for stimulus for development of the entire production chain in the long-term perspective, including development of fundamental science in chemical crop protection industry. Learning and adapting foreign experience can be the first step in the process of structural change of the crop protection industry. Simultaneously, it is critical to maintain openness and desire to use best practices at pesticide market, without which the competitiveness of Russian agricultural production will be constrained and development of the entire industry will have a pace inferior to other countries.

Performance Evaluation Using the DEA-Stepwise Modeling Approach Method: Case Study of the Export-Import Sector in Indonesia

The export and import industry are now a significant determinant of a nation's economic progress in the age of globalization. A nation's ability to export helps it earn foreign cash that it can utilize to fund development and spur economic expansion. Conversely, import-related activities might assist in satisfying the need for products or services that cannot be effectively provided domestically. Entrepreneurs can increase the competitiveness of local products and the quality of their products through imports and exports, which will enhance both industrial progress and community welfare. To maximize the nation's economic progress, the government and business owners must continue to boost import-export activity. The objective of this study is to evaluate Indonesia's export-import sector's performance using the stepwise modeling approach and the DEA method. One technique to determine which export-import sector activities are effective and ineffective is performance evaluation. These two sectors can support the country's economy in this way and do so with a long-term approach. The research results indicate that efficient DMUs have the smallest presentation (20%) and inefficient DMUs have the largest percentage (80%). The efficient DMU category is C (1). Inefficient DMU categories, namely: SK (0.285), S (0.193), M-US (0.472), and T-J (0.11).

The impact of firm downsizing on workers: Evidence from Ethiopia’s ready-made garment industry

We analyze matched employee–employer data from Ethiopia’s largest special economic zone during a period of downsizing pressure from the COVID-19 world import demand shock. We observe substantial job displacement during the shock peak, particularly for new hires. These largely female and rural-to-urban migrants persistently “fall off the employment ladder”, remaining unemployed both within and outside the zone even after employers have recovered from the shock. We observe high levels of urban-centered food insecurity and depression symptoms during the crisis peak, regardless of employment status. Our findings highlight the importance of social protection policies within export-oriented development strategies.

Russian Agricultural Exports: Economic and Statistical Analysis

The article presents the results of an economic and statistical analysis of Russian agricultural exports from 2012 to 2021 – a period of intensive growth during which revenue in foreign markets doubled, and the country entered the top twenty leaders in food exports. The in- fluence of the factors of physical volume and price on the dynamics of exports of products from the agricultural sector of Russia is analyzed, and a change in the assessment of the contribution of individual product categories to export growth was revealed when recalculating indica- tors from current prices to comparable prices. It has been established that average prices for Russian agricultural products are half the world pri-ces, which leads to a lack of income from the export of agricultural products for Russia (on average, about 4.9 billion US dollars per year for the last five years). The main reason for this deviation is that a significant share of the structure of Russian food exports is made up of products with a low degree of processing. Additionally, there is a situation with lower prices for some Russian goods of a comparable range, primarily in the food and processing industries.An assessment of the risks to the sustainability of Russian agribusiness in the event of a disruption in export supplies showed that, given the low level of development of intra-industry trade, domestic production remains quite vulnerable to a potential reduction in exports when foreign trade restrictions are introduced. If trade chains are broken, only 20% of exports can be redirected to the domestic market to replace imports.An analysis of the achievement of targets for the development of Russian agricultural exports in 2016–2021 was carried out and indicates that, despite its significant overall growth during the period under study, in some years its dynamics lagged behind the values established in state programs, even considering their repeated adjustments. This is largely due to the dependence of the growth of Russian exports of agricultural products on the increase in the production of grain and oilseeds, which is influenced, among other things, by random weather factors. Thus, based on data for individual years, it is impossible to judge the success or failure in the implementation of Russian agricultural export devel- opment programs, and the methodology for assessing the achievement of target indicators itself requires improvement.

Exports and economic growth: relationships and threshold analysis for the Southern Africa customs union

This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between exports and economic growth in the Sothern Africa Customs Union (SACU), as well as the corresponding threshold level. The study used panel data covering the period 1980 to 2021 and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds to test for co-integration relationships, and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) to determine the respective threshold level. Exports positively support economic growth both in the short-run and in the long-run in SACU. There is long-run bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. The minimum threshold for exports is 59%. That is, exports only start contributing significantly to economic growth when they are above 59% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). SACU should put in place economic policies and regulations that are skewed towards the improvement of the competitiveness of its local products on the global market and also strategically consider export-oriented industrialization strategies. Efforts should also be channeled towards the implementation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and harnessing the synergic benefits through the adoption of deliberate value chain mechanisms and initiatives.

STRATEGIC VECTOR OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE AGRO-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX OF RUSSIA ON THE FOREIGN ECONOMIC COURSE

The article presents the results of a study of trends and prospects of foreign economic activity, priorities of export of agro-industrial products in Russia and the Altai Territory in the conditions of sanctions foreign policy restrictions using methods of strategic economic analysis and expert assessments. The prospects for the development of foreign economic activity in the field of agriculture, taking into account the diversification of foreign markets, are revealed. The agro-industrial business is offered the appropriate resources and ways to find solutions for changing the orientation in foreign markets. In order to maintain the achieved level of exports of agricultural products and its further development, it is necessary to intensify measures to support all market participants. The favorable geographical location of the country, its productive resources and the previously planned course for the development of exports are the foundation for the further development of the foreign economic course in difficult modern conditions. The constraining factors are: the lack of knowledge of new markets, which affects the efficiency of changing the direction of exports by agricultural enterprises; the culture of consumption and the peculiarities of trade in Africa, Southeast Asia, India; the formation of new logical chains, the insufficiency of innovative industries in terms of technological sovereignty, the production of organic agricultural and food products.

The new political economy of public sector wage-setting in Europe: Introduction to the special issue

This special issue (SI) brings the industrial relations scholarship on the public sector into dialogue with the comparative political economy (CPE) literature on growth models/regimes. While the former has paid great attention to the public sector, in CPE the public sector has been analysed less, and mostly as subaltern to the export-sector’s actors, interests and institutions. We posit that the public sector matters for CPE in its own right for three reasons. First, the state remains today the single largest employer in virtually every European economy, providing incomes to a large segment of the middle class. Second, public employers’ wage bill – one of the largest items of governments’ current expenditures – is funded by the taxpayers. Hence, public sector wage policy is fiscal policy, ultimately pursued by public/political employers. Third, public employers are simultaneously public managers and political sovereigns acting in the shadow of hierarchy. Case-study contributions to the SI detail how these insights matter within different European growth regimes: (1) the Mediterranean demand-led growth regime (France, Italy, Spain and Portugal), (2) the German export-led growth regime, (3) the Nordic balanced growth regime (Denmark and Sweden) and (4) the FDI-led Eastern European growth regime (Czechia and Slovakia).

НОВАЯ ИНДУСТРИАЛИЗАЦИЯ: АНАЛИЗ ВОЗМОЖНОСТЕЙ ПРОМЫШЛЕННОГО СЕКТОРА БАШКОРТОСТАНА

The processes of deglobalization and multipolarity, changing the trend of Russia's development in the global economic paradigm require the immediate formation of a new model of economic development of the country, based on new industrialization and a departure from policies focused on the development of raw materials exports. This imperative determines, in particular, the need for an early reorientation of strategic priorities and industrial policy of Russian regions to achieve technological breakthroughs in various industries. The article analyzes the capabilities of the Republic of Bashkortostan to implement the policy of new industrialization, and concludes that it is necessary to take a comprehensive set of measures to overcome the inertia of industrial development with a focus on raw materials.

Technological proximity of countries as a factor of inward foreign direct investment to developing economies

Over the past decades, incoming flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to developing countries have increased significantly. However, the share of accumulated incoming direct investments of these countries in the global volume of incoming direct investments remains unchanged. This may indicate the shortterm nature of these investments due to the lack of investors’ motivation to make long-term investments in these countries. In our paper, we make an attempt to identify the most significant determinants of flows of inward foreign direct investment to developing countries based on statistics on bilateral flows of such investments for the period of 2009—2021. For this purpose, we have constructed a gravity model of foreign direct investment. In contrast to the previous studies we have focused on the factor of technological proximity between countries. Firstly, the estimation results allow us to conclude that technological proximity between a recipient country and an investor country has a significant impact on the volume of FDI inflows to developing countries. Secondly, this influence is heterogeneous. The proximity of the technological structure of exports between countries contributes to an increase in FDI inflows to a recipient country. At the same time, countries which are close to each other in terms of the level of technological development of exports have a smaller volume of mutual FDI, while a significant excess of the level of technological development of the investor country over that of the recipient one is a factor of additional FDI inflows driven by a resource-seeking motive. Thirdly, based on the obtained results, we have revealed a list of countries that are the most attractive for Russia in terms of increasing the volume of outward FDI.

Dynamic capabilities that matter for business failure versus survival

Due to the severity and length of the COVID-19 pandemic, some businesses have failed whereas others, including those in the same industry, have survived. Drawing on dynamic capability theory, we explored the dynamic capabilities, whose presence or absence are conditions for business failure or survival. We conducted 16 in-depth semi-structured interviews with owners/executives of firms from the travel and tourism, catering and hospitality, and agricultural export industries in India. Using fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) technique, we found three causal configurations for the business failure phenomenon, and two causal configurations for business survival phenomenon. The absence of collaborative capability with key stakeholders was observed as key to business failure, and the absence of leadership adaptive capability and the ability to leverage government support were found in two of the three causal configurations. In contrast, leadership adaptive capability and collaborative capability were present in the two causal configurations for business survival. Contrary to common viewpoints, digital transformation capability was neither sufficient to prevent failure nor necessary to ensure survival. By focusing on firms' dynamic capabilities as the conditions that differentiate business failure from survival, this study advances scholarship, and offers guidance to managers on navigating through a crisis.

Diversification in resource-rich Africa, 1999–2019

We survey the performance of Sub-Saharan Africa's resource-dependent economies from 1999 to 2019, a period covering the commodity price supercycle, which generated enormous rents for natural resource producers. We show that despite high overall growth rates, these states failed to convert their windfalls into broader forms of development: their economies diversified more slowly than resource-poor countries in Sub-Saharan Africa; their economies became less complex; their low institutional quality regressed further; and they achieved slower progress on human development than their resource-poor counterparts. Case studies of the top three diversifiers—Botswana, Zambia, and Nigeria—underscore the challenges of diversification. We suggest two broad reasons for these patterns. First, economic diversification, especially export diversification, is intrinsically difficult for low-and-middle income resource-dependent countries, due to both Dutch Disease effects and the isolated product spaces of the oil, gas, and minerals sectors. Second, diversification in resource-dependent states is sensitive to institutional quality, yet institutional quality is sticky and typically constrained by political interests that are hostile to reforms. This implies that the development challenges of oil, gas, and mineral dependent states over the coming decades will be significant and difficult to surmount. We suggest a more modest set of goals focused on diversifying into related activities in the extractives value chain and unrelated sectors in the domestic economy, as well as narrowly-focused efforts to boost non-resource export industries.

Growth regimes, dominant social blocs and growth strategies: towards varieties of export-led growth regimes and strategies in Turkey and Poland

This paper aims to contribute to the literature on growth regimes by combining an operationalization of growth regimes based on growth contributions and sectoral financial balances with an analysis of dominant social blocs (DSBs). We propose the concept of a growth strategy to bridge the political and actor-oriented sphere with the macroeconomic sphere. We employ this framework to analyze the cases of Poland and Turkey. The study identifies a transition from a domestic demand-led regime to a weakly export-led regime in Poland, while Turkey experienced a shift from a domestic demand-led regime to a debt-led private demand regime and subsequently towards a weakly export-led regime, too. Both countries’ new DSBs pursue export-led growth strategies, but Poland’s strategy focuses on non-price competitiveness while Turkey relies on price competitiveness. We lay out the differences between the strategies in terms of policies and the capital fractions supporting them.