Risk Assessment Index System Research Articles

Risk Assessment of Shield Tunnel Construction in Karst Strata Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Cloud Model

Karst is an unfavorable geology that is very undesirable in tunnel construction. It is extremely risky due to the complexity and fuzziness of shield excavation in karst strata. To reduce the construction risk of shield tunneling in karst strata, a risk assessment method based on cloud model and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed. A risk assessment index system is established, including four first-level indices of karst geological conditions, hydrogeological conditions, tunnel design, and shield construction, as well as seventeen second-level indices. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the evaluation indices weights. The numerical characteristics of each index and the risk cloud diagram are obtained via the backward cloud generator and forward cloud generator, respectively. The certainty degrees of the assessment indices corresponding to each risk level are calculated, and the final risk level is determined based on the comparison of the risk cloud diagram and the principle of maximum certainty. The proposed model is applied to the risk analysis and calculation of shield tunnel engineering, and the risk assessment results indicate that the comprehensive risk level of shield tunnel construction in karst strata is level II, which is consistent with the actual project. It demonstrates that the proposed method can provide a reference for the risk assessment of shield tunnels construction in karst strata.

Ensemble Flood Risk Assessment in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under CMIP6 SSP-RCP Scenarios

The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important part of China’s “two screens and three belts” strategic ecological security barrier, and the urban agglomeration along the YREB is the core of its economic development. However, it has suffered the most from frequent and severe flood disasters that were affected by torrential rains, urbanization, and human activities, with climate change intensifying the potential occurrence of flood disasters in this area. Based on the CMIP6 climate data, this study constructed a flood risk assessment index system and assessed the temporal and spatial changes of the flood risk in the YREB during 2020–2050 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios, including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. From the perspective of temporal change, the results showed that at the grid level, the area of middle-low risk (0.55 < R ≤ 0.65) accounted for 60% of the total area of the YREB and area of high-risk (R > 0.85) fluctuated first and then decreased under the four scenarios, with the area of high-risk being largest in the future under the SSP585 scenario. Specifically, at the city level, around half of the cities in the YREB had faced high flood risk and the risk showed an increasing trend during 2020–2050 under the SSP370 scenario. From the perspective of spatial change, the flood risk of the YREB presented a spatial pattern of low in the west and high in the east, with high risk mainly concentrated in the cities in the lower reaches of the YREB and also Chongqing and Sichuan. Compared with SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, it showed that high-risk areas were larger under high emission scenarios SSP370 and SSP585, which were mostly concentrated in middle and lower reaches of the YREB and the cities of Chongqing and Chengdu during 2020–2050. Especially, flood risk showed an increasing trend in the middle and lower reaches of the YREB during 2020–2050, and the regions with high vulnerability would have greater socio-economic losses. The finding would provide scientific support for resilience improvement, risk reduction and management, and formulating policies to achieve green and sustainable development in the YREB.

Gray relational analysis based assessment of escalator accident risk in subway stations

In order to better achieve active defense in the escalator risk management, this study based on the vulnerability theory, task driven theory, management error theory, proposed a Gray Relational Analysis (GRA) based fuzzy assessment of escalator accident risk approach. The risk assessment index system of subway station escalator accident was constructed based on the commonness and essence of management defects; the weight of risk index was calculated scientifically and reasonably by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); escalator accident risk was evaluated by the combination of GRA and Fuzzy approach. The results show that escalator equipment, environment, safety knowledge of riders are all in good condition in the station. However, ‘Maintenance’ of escalator in the Beijing subway station is in an extremely high risk level. The contributions of this studies are: (1) general risk elements analysis model for escalator accidents which enable to compose any risk factor possible to induce escalator accident in subway station; (2) GRA based risk assessment approach can avoid the problem when expend the range to left and right. It can also judge whether the continuous improvement effect of the object is significant by the difference degree of each risk level before and after.

Risk Assessment of Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes (Diptera: Culicidae) Invading China under Climate Change.

Simple SummaryClimate change has a significant impact on the quantity and distribution of vectors and may thus threaten the health of the population. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the near-current distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes in the world, as well as the distribution of potentially suitable areas in China under future climate scenarios. We also constructed a vector risk assessment system to assess the possibility of the two mosquito species invading China. Among the meteorological factors, the precipitation in September makes the greatest contribution to the distribution of areas suitable for the two mosquito species, which have a moderate risk of invading China. The relevant management departments should formulate scientific prevention and control measures for the two mosquitoes according to meteorological factors and the risk level of invasion.Background: Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes are morphologically similar and are considered to be effective vectors of malaria transmission in northeastern India. Environmental factors such as temperature and rainfall have a significant impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of disease vectors driven by future climate change. Methods: In this study, we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potential global distribution of the two mosquito species in the near future and the trend of future distribution in China. Based on the contribution rate of environmental factors, we analyzed the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the two mosquito species. We also constructed a disease vector risk assessment index system to calculate the comprehensive risk value of the invasive species. Results: Precipitation has a significant effect on the distribution of potentially suitable areas for Anopheles philippinensis and Anopheles nivipes. The two mosquito species may spread in the suitable areas of China in the future. The results of the risk assessment index system showed that the two mosquito species belong to the moderate invasion risk level for China. Conclusions: China should improve the mosquito vector monitoring system, formulate scientific prevention and control strategies and strictly prevent foreign imports.

Weighted clustering-based risk assessment on urban rainstorm and flood disaster

In recent years, the rainstorm and flood disasters frequently happened in cities and posed increasingly wide challenges. Therefore, the whole development process of urban rainstorm and flood disaster should be carried out for the reasonable and quantitative assessment on cities' ability to respond to rainstorm and flood disasters, and the index system of risk assessment on regional flood disaster is constructed based on the three attributes of vulnerability, adaptability and restorability. 3 first-class and 14 s-class indexes are set up accordingly. The weight of each index is calculated by weighting methods which are both subjective and objective based on entropy-weight order relation. Then, the theoretical model for risk assessment is established by weighted clustering assessment. Finally, the empirical analysis was conducted on the current situation of rainstorm and flood disaster in 8 regions of a city in China. The results show that among the risk grade of rainstorm and flood disaster in 8 regions, there are 2 regions with grade-II higher risk, 5 regions with grade-III general risk and 1 region with grade-IV low risk. The consistency between assessment results and actual operation of cities indicates this model can be applied and effective to some extent.

Risk Evaluation Indicator System for Lightning Disaster in Oil Storage Depots

Since oil storage depots typically hold large quantities of oil or gas, they are prone to the build-up of high energy and density levels. This paper established a lightning disaster risk assessment index system for oil storage depots that considered the primary causes for accidental explosions due to lightning and included four first-level, 13 second-level, and 13 third-level indexes. Furthermore, this index system was based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying lightning-causing accidents in different types of storage tanks. Furthermore, it involved the establishment principle for the comprehensive evaluation indicator system, denoting a “comprehensive system, distinct layering, and simplicity.” This system includes four first-level evaluation index, 13 second-level evaluation index and 13 third-level evaluation index. It visualizes the affiliation relationship between different risks that may cause lightning accidents in oil storage depots, introduces the method used to obtain each underlying risk indicator and lays a theoretical foundation for assessing the lightning disaster risk in oil storage depots.

Flood Risk Assessment under Land Use and Climate Change in Wuhan City of the Yangtze River Basin, China

Frequently occurring flood disasters caused by extreme climate and urbanization processes have become the most common natural hazard and pose a great threat to human society. Therefore, urban flood risk assessment is of great significance for disaster mitigation and prevention. In this paper, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to quantify the spatiotemporal variations in flood risk in Wuhan during 2000–2018. A comprehensive flood risk assessment index system was constructed from the hazard, sensitivity, and vulnerability components with seven indices. The results showed that the central urban area, especially the area in the west bank of the Yangtze river, had high risk due to its high flood sensitivity that was determined by land use type and high vulnerability with dense population and per unit GDP. Specifically, the Jianghan, Qiaokou, Jiangan, and Wuchang districts had the highest flood risk, more than 60% of whose area was in medium or above-medium risk regions. During 2000–2018, the flood risk overall showed an increasing trend, with Hongshan district increasing the most, and the year of 2010 was identified as a turning point for rapid risk increase. In addition, the comparison between the risk maps and actual historical inundation point records showed good agreement, indicating that the assessment framework and method proposed in this study can be useful to assist flood mitigation and management, and relevant policy recommendations were proposed based on the assessment results.

Risk Assessment of Government Debt Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

Government debt risk is an important factor affecting macroeconomic stability and public expectation. The key to its prevention and control lies in early warning and early prevention. This paper builds an effective government debt risk assessment system based on machine learning algorithm. According to forming the performance of local government debt risk and its internal and external influencing factors, this study applies the analytic hierarchy process, entropy method, and BP neural network method to construct the local government risk assessment index system, which includes the primary and secondary indexes including the explicit debt risk, the contingent implicit debt risk, and the financial and economic operation risk. Using this system, this study carries on the government debt risk comprehensive weight assignment, the fiscal revenue forecast, the default probability calculation, the safety scale forecast, and finally the government debt risk assessment of the validity analysis. The system can provide signal guidance and policy reference for finance to cope with risks in advance, arrange the priority order of debt repayment, optimize the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, etc.

Smart Supply Chain Risk Assessment in Intelligent Manufacturing

ABSTRACT This paper identifies risk factors in the smart supply chain and develops a risk assessment index system for reducing potential losses in intelligent manufacturing. Specifically, based on the supply chain operation reference theory, we investigate the performance indicators and characteristics of the smart supply chain in intelligent manufacturing in China. A conceptual model for identifying risks of the smart supply chain is developed, and a questionnaire is designed to measure the risks of the smart supply chain in intelligent manufacturing. Using the hierarchical clustering analysis, an improved risk assessment model is derived with 22 risk factors based on 814 valid sample data. Moreover, the information entropy weight method is used to compute the risk weights for the smart supply chain in intelligent manufacturing. The risk weights are further verified by simulation and proved that these risk factors and risk weights have high practical efficiency. Theoretical and practical implications are also presented.

Environmental Risk Assessment of Subway Station Construction to Achieve Sustainability Using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Set Pair Analysis

Environmental risks have a significant impact on the sustainability of subway station construction projects. This paper proposes an environmental risk assessment model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP) and set pair analysis (SPA) to deal with the ambiguity and uncertainty in the assessment. An index system for environmental risk assessment is established based on a literature review and the rough set method. Subsequently, the IFAHP is used to calculate the indicator weights to describe the certainty, uncertainty, and hesitation degree of expert decisions in the weighting calculation by means of affiliation, nonaffiliation, and hesitation. Finally, SPA, which can deal with the randomness, uncertainty, and ambiguity of the indicators, is used to assess environmental risk. A case study of two typical stations (Lushan Avenue Station and Huilong Road West Station) of Metro Line 11 in Chengdu, China, is conducted. The case study results are consistent with field surveys. The evaluation results of the proposed model are more objective and reasonable than those of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the entropy weight method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey correlation analysis, and technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). The research results prove the scientific validity and superiority of the proposed model.

Progress of risk assessment index systems on infectious disease

Risk assessment plays an essential role in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. A sound index system is critical to obtain accurate risk assessment results. The spread of different types of infectious diseases in various situations has complex influencing factors. Thus, the results of different risk assessment index system of infectious disease transmission could be varying. This paper summarizes the risk assessment index systems of infectious disease transmission established at home and abroad according to the transmission route and the specific situations in which they occur. This paper also quoted China's references to formulate a new index system for risk assessment of infectious disease transmission.

Risk and Economic Evaluation of Aircraft Program Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

The commercial aircraft development program is generally confronted with huge risks from various aspects. To improve the economic benefits of the aircraft program and increase the competitiveness of aircraft manufacturers, the risk analysis and economic evaluation of the aircraft program are studied in this paper, within which the qualitative risk assessment index system of the aircraft program is introduced and summarized. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the uncertainties of key parameters in the aircraft program value model, such as the decision period, initial demand quantity, volatility, and price inflation, are analyzed. The range of aircraft program value and the probability distribution corresponding to each parameter are calculated, respectively. A statistical analysis of the simulation results is conducted to prove the rationality of the simulation. To obtain different state combinations, the cost and price of the aircraft are seen as risk variables directly, and the expected value and discrete coefficient are calculated to verify the profitability and feasibility of the program. By analyzing the risk assessment and economic evaluation of the aircraft program, the overall trend of the program value can be obtained, and data support for program research can be achieved.

Design of risk assessment and decision support system for transportation of hazardous chemicals

According to the needs of risk assessment, path planning and emergency rescue of hazardous chemicals transportation, a risk assessment and decision support system of hazardous chemicals transportation was designed, including system structure, implementation process and main functions. The feasibility analysis of key technologies was carried out. This system took Geographic Information System (GIS) as the support platform, and integrated multi-source information such as hazardous chemicals, global positioning system (GPS), geographic environment, Meteorological information, etc. Based on classical pollution diffusion models and relevant domestic and foreign standards, the index system of transportation risk assessment was built. Then the quantitative index of risk assessment and the early warning sign could be given, and the hazard area of the chemical accident was determined. At last, this risk assessment and decision support system provided suggestions on route optimization for hazardous chemicals transport, which could be severed as scientific basis for emergency rescue and command decision.

Flood Risk Assessment in Small Watershed Based on Catastrophe Theory

Flood system is a complex system affected by many control factors and has typical system characteristics, such as irreversibility, fuzzy characteristics, gray characteristics, etc. Catastrophe theory is a well developed singularity theory, which has been initially applied in some leaping disaster systems. However, in the field of flood risk management, the application of catastrophe theory is relatively few. In this paper, a small watershed in the mountainous area of southwest China is taken for an example. The catastrophe assessment theory is adopted to conduct flood risk assessment. By analyzing the characteristics of the flood system and selecting flood risk factors, the flood risk assessment index system is established and the catastrophe theory flood risk assessment model is conducted, thus conducting flood risk zoning and management according to the assessment result, which provides a new reliable method for flood risk assessment and offers foundation for disaster reduction department.

An ensemble risk assessment model for urban rainstorm disasters based on random forest and deep belief nets: a case study of Nanjing, China

Effective management of rainstorm risk is essential for reducing regional rainstorm disaster risks and losses. In this paper, we discussed the influencing factors of urban rainstorm disaster (URSD) risk from four aspects and then constructed the index system of URSD risk assessment which includes 16 influencing factors. Furtherly, important indexes were extracted as the input of deep belief nets (DBN) model after analyzing the types and risk characteristics of URSD. As well as a coupling risk assessment model of URSD based on random forest and deep belief nets (RF–DBN) was established due to the capacity of high-dimensional data processing of RF and robustness of DBN. To test the validity of this risk assessment model, it was applied to evaluate the rainstorm disaster risk in 11 districts of Nanjing, China, from May to September during 2009 and 2017. Finally, the risk grade map of rainstorm disaster in Nanjing was drawn and the corresponding countermeasures for the regulation and control of URSD were put forward. The results show that the rainstorm risk in Nanjing is generally high during the period of rainy season and the risk of rainstorm disaster has egional features during the flood season.

Preliminary Study on Fire Risk Assessment Index System of Detention Center

According to the basic theory of fire safety management, combined with the particularity of supervision function of detention center, the factors affecting fire risk of detention center were analyzed, The fire risk evaluation index system of detention center was established from six aspects: fire hazard control, fire prevention ability, fire extinguishing ability, safety evacuation ability, fire safety management and personnel characteristics. The weight of each index in the evaluation system was determined by AHP, the analysis results showed that the safety evacuation ability affected the fire risk of detention center.

Research on Prevention and Control of Risk Index of Groundwater Pollution System in Northeast China

The background of this paper is that groundwater pollution risk assessment and zoning is an important basis for regional groundwater resources protection. The research progress and deficiency of Groundwater Hazard Risk Assessment at home and abroad are analyzed. Based on the data of 18 water quality indexes such as ammonia and nitrogen in 18 groundwater monitoring sites in Jinzhou area, the pollution factors and pollution sources were analyzed with the improved Mero comprehensive index. At present, due to the long-term exploitation of shallow groundwater in the west of Liaoning Province, the pollution degree of the groundwater is relatively large, and the cause of the pollution is unknown. The research methods are literature research and case analysis. On the basis of defining the risk of groundwater pollution, the index system of groundwater pollution risk assessment and the index system of groundwater pollution risk assessment are established. The results show that nitrate is the main factor of regional groundwater pollution, and the contribution of variance is 49.30%. Domestic sewage is the main source of regional shallow groundwater pollution. At the same time, an improved Mero composite index was proposed to strengthen the control of domestic sewage and agricultural non-point source pollution in Jinzhou, and to strengthen groundwater recharge, the impact of transgression on groundwater quality in Jinzhou should also be the focus of follow-up studies.

Research on Risk Assessment Index System of Expressway

The safety of road infrastructure is the basis for safe operation of roads, and expressways, as high-grade expressways between freeways and non- freeways, involve roads, bridges, tunnels, traffic safety facilities and other infrastructure. Therefore, constructing a risk assessment index system for expressways is a prerequisite for the safety management of expressway operations, which helps to transform "passive processing" into "active prevention". In order to establish a comprehensive and systematic expressway risk assessment system, this paper from the perspective of systems engineering, uses the Interpretive Structural Modelling method to construct many risk factors of the expressway into a causal and hierarchical structure model. For solving the shortcomings of the poor accuracy of the subjective analysis method and the lack of interpretability of the objective analysis method, this paper adopts an improved subjective and objective analysis method to give weight to the indicators at various levels. So as to improve the scientificity of the risk assessment system of the expressway.

Analysis of Military Training Security Risk Assessment Method Based on F-ANP

Combining the arm training practice after the Strong Army Reform, this paper put forwards using the F-ANP method for military training security risks to semi- quantitative evaluation, builds the safety risk assessment index system of military training, semi-quantitative calculation and analysis, and put forwards the opinions of the security risk prevention and control suggestions. This paper enriches the military training of security risk assessment methods, and provides the reference to the research of military training safety risk assessment.

Security and Privacy Risk Assessment of Energy Big Data in Cloud Environment.

Considering the importance of energy in our lives and its impact on other critical infrastructures, this paper starts from the whole life cycle of big data and divides the security and privacy risk factors of energy big data into five stages: data collection, data transmission, data storage, data use, and data destruction. Integrating into the consideration of cloud environment, this paper fully analyzes the risk factors of each stage and establishes a risk assessment index system for the security and privacy of energy big data. According to the different degrees of risk impact, AHP method is used to give indexes weights, genetic algorithm is used to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BP neural network, and then the optimized weights and thresholds are given to BP neural network, and the evaluation samples in the database are used to train it. Then, the trained model is used to evaluate a case to verify the applicability of the model.