Risk and Economic Evaluation of Aircraft Program Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

The commercial aircraft development program is generally confronted with huge risks from various aspects. To improve the economic benefits of the aircraft program and increase the competitiveness of aircraft manufacturers, the risk analysis and economic evaluation of the aircraft program are studied in this paper, within which the qualitative risk assessment index system of the aircraft program is introduced and summarized. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation method, the uncertainties of key parameters in the aircraft program value model, such as the decision period, initial demand quantity, volatility, and price inflation, are analyzed. The range of aircraft program value and the probability distribution corresponding to each parameter are calculated, respectively. A statistical analysis of the simulation results is conducted to prove the rationality of the simulation. To obtain different state combinations, the cost and price of the aircraft are seen as risk variables directly, and the expected value and discrete coefficient are calculated to verify the profitability and feasibility of the program. By analyzing the risk assessment and economic evaluation of the aircraft program, the overall trend of the program value can be obtained, and data support for program research can be achieved.