Independent Predictor Of Long-term Mortality Research Articles

Clinical Outcomes After Durable Mitral Valve Repair for Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation

BackgroundThis study aimed to clarify the incidence and determinants of postoperative adverse events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy who achieved long-term durable mitral valve repair. MethodsBetween 1999 and 2015, 166 patients with chronic ischemic mitral regurgitation (MR) and a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% underwent restrictive mitral annuloplasty. During follow-up (65 ± 34 months), echocardiographic assessments were performed 809 times (mean, 4.9 ± 2.4 times), and 20 patients who had postoperative recurrent MR (moderate or severe) were excluded. Finally, 146 patients (aged 68 [63-75] years) whose MR was well controlled over time were included. ResultsA total of 61 deaths or 27 readmissions for heart failure were observed in 76 patients (52%). Among hospital survivors, age (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.05; P = .001) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.61; P = .001) were identified as independent predictors of long-term mortality or readmission for heart failure. The degree of postoperative left ventricular function recovery was comparable between patients with and without adverse events. However, the former group showed greater values for systolic pulmonary artery pressure, tricuspid regurgitation severity, inferior vena cava dimension, and plasma brain natriuretic peptide level throughout the follow-up period (group effect P < .05 for all). ConclusionsApproximately 50% of patients died or were hospitalized for heart failure even in the absence of recurrent MR during the 5-year follow-up, a finding indicating that durable mitral repair does not always lead to favorable clinical outcomes. The adverse events may have been related to volume overload secondary to impaired renal function and less favorable pulmonary hemodynamics.

Predictors of long-term mortality in left-sided infective endocarditis: an historical cohort study in 414 patients

Introduction: Very limited data are available on the long-term outcome of infective endocarditis (IE) and its determinants. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of long-term mortality in patients affected by left sided IE (LSIE). Methods: This was an historical retrospective observational study on prospectively collected data from patients with LSIE hospitalized in our Unit (January 2000-December 2017). Multiple variables relevant to history, physical examination, laboratory tests, echocardiography, comorbidities, complications and outcome were analysed by Cox regression to identify predictors of long-term mortality. Results: 414 patients were included, and followed up for a median of 39 months [IQR 11-74]. Median age was 59 years [range 3-89], and most patients were male. Over 50% showed at least one comorbidity. Hyperglycaemia, increased creatinine and an indication for surgery predicted in-hospital mortality, while a prior myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease (CKD) on hemodialysis and a larger vegetation were independent predictors of 1-year mortality. At multivariate analysis, peripheral arterial disease (p= 0.017), hyperglycemia on admission (p=0.013) and a higher BMI (p=0.009) were independent predictors of long-term mortality in 1-year survivors. At multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression, peripheral arterial disease (p=0.002), hyperglycemia (p=0.041) and CKD on hemodialysis (p=0.025) confirmed to be independently associated with an increased risk of long-term mortality in the overall 414 patient cohort. Conclusions: Cardiovascular and metabolic risk signals, specifically peripheral arterial disease and hyperglicemia, affect long-term mortality of LSIE. An active and long-term follow up seems warranted in IE survivors showing these conditions at outset.

Prognostic impact of malnutrition in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction.

We aimed to investigate the prevalence and the prognostic impact of malnutrition using the geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) in elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We investigated 130 consecutive patients aged ≥ 75years who were discharged following successful primary coronary intervention between March 2009 and December 2016. The mean age of the patients was 81.5 ± 5.0years, and 55.4% of them were male. At discharge, the patients' nutritional statuses were evaluated using the GNRI, which were calculated as follows: 14.89 × serum albumin (g/dL) + 41.7 × body mass index/22. The patients were divided into two groups, a low GNRI group (GNRI < 92) with nutrition-related risk and a high GNRI group (GNRI ≥ 92) without nutrition-related risk. The mean GNRI score of all patients was 95.2 ± 11.0, and 46 patients (35.4%) had a low GNRI score. During the mean follow-up of 1030 ± 850days, the all-cause mortality was significantly higher in the low GNRI group than in the high GNRI group (32.6% vs. 13.1%, p < 0.001), while the event rates of AMI recurrence and hospitalization due to heart failure did not differ significantly between the two groups. Multivariate Cox proportional analysis revealed that low GNRI was a modest but independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval 0.90-0.98; p = 0.01). Among elderly patients with AMI, malnutrition assessed using the GNRI was often encountered and was an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Long-Term Outcome with New Generation Prostheses in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

The aim of this study was to compare patients with transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) receiving new generation prostheses SAPIEN 3 (S3, Edwards Lifesc.) and Evolut R (ER, Medtronic Inc.) in terms of periprocedural and long-term outcome. Our retrospective, single-center analysis included 359 consecutive patients with severe aortic stenosis who underwent TAVR with S3 or ER from 2014–2016 (mean age 82 ± 7 years, 47% male, mean EuroSCORE II 8.0 ± 8%, mean follow-up 3.8 years). Device Success was equal (S3 93.0% vs. ER 92.4%, p = 0.812). We report a 30-day mortality of 2.8% in the S3 group, and 2.1% in the ER group (p = 0.674). There was no difference in stroke, conversion to open surgery, vascular and bleeding complications or myocardial infarction. While prosthesis mean gradients were higher with S3 (12.0 mmHg vs. 8.2 mmHg, p < 0.001), there was a trend to less paravalvular regurgitation (PVR moderate or severe: 1% vs. 3.6%, p = 0.088). All-cause mortality up to 5 years did not show a difference (mean survival S3 3.5 ± 0.24 years, ER 3.3 ± 0.29 years, p = 0.895). Independent predictors of long-term mortality were impaired LVEF, chronic kidney injury, peripheral artery disease, malignant tumor and periprocedural stroke. New generation TAVR valves offer an excellent implant and outcome success rate. Long-term survival was independent of prostheses choice and mainly attributed to comorbidities and complications.

Baseline Anemia Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation.

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between baseline anemia and long-term mortality in a single-center retrospective study involving patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). The study population included 412 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI at a center for severe aortic valve stenosis between August 2011 and November 2018. The primary end point of the study was all-cause mortality. Baseline anemia was present in 50% of our study cohort. During the median follow-up of 29 months, all-cause mortality was observed in 40.3% of the whole study population and was more frequently observed in the anemic group compared with the nonanemic group (53.5% vs 27.1%, P < .001, respectively). Cox-regression analysis revealed that Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, previous stroke, pericardial tamponade, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio count are independent predictors of long-term mortality after TAVI. Additionally, the presence of anemia at baseline was an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a 2.3-fold difference in the anemic group compared with the nonanemic group (hazard ratio: 2.31, 95% CI: 1.59-3.37, P < .001). Baseline anemia was observed in half of our patient population undergoing TAVI, and baseline anemia was found to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality after TAVI.

Outcomes of Orthotopic Heart Transplantation in the Setting of Acute Kidney Injury and Renal Replacement Therapy

Heart transplantation in the setting of renal insufficiency is controversial. The objective of this study was to perform a descriptive analysis of patients who underwent orthotopic heart transplantation and renal replacement therapy (RRT) due to acute kidney injury (AKI). An observational cohort study with retrospective data collection. A tertiary care hospital. Fifty-one patients underwent orthotopic heart transplantation with cardiogenic shock under inotrope dependence, with nine patients having preoperative RRT and 42 patients not having preoperative RRT. There were no interventions. Hospital mortality occurred in eight (15.6%) patients. Although there were no significant differences between the study groups (preoperative RRT 33.3% v controls 11.9%, p=0.1), this study was underpowered to detect differences in mortality. Dialysis also was required in 52.4% of patients who were not on preoperative RRT. All survivors had full recovery of kidney function with similar timing after transplant (18.5 days v 15 days, p=0.75). Actuarial survival was 82.4%, 76.5%, and 66.5% at six months, one year, and five years, respectively. A cold ischemic time greater than 180 minutes (hazard ratio [HR] 4.37 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.51-12.6; p=0.006) and pretransplant RRT (HR=7.19 95% CI 1.13-45.7; p=0.04) were independent predictors of long-term mortality. In a health system with limited funding and availability of mechanical circulatory support, heart transplantation in the setting of AKI, RRT, and low Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support profile was associated with important hospital mortality. Among hospital survivors, however, all patients had full renal recovery and by 25 months there was no difference in mortality between those who required preoperative RRT and those who did not.

Long-term mortality in patients undergoing lower-limb revascularization with Paclitaxel eluting devices

BackgroundPaclitaxel-eluting devices (PED) reduce restenosis and target lesion revascularization (TLR) in femoropopliteal intervention. Recent data suggest a two-fold increased long-term mortality in patients treated with PED. The aim of our study is to evaluate if endovascular therapy (EVT) with PED increases mortality risk in patients with symptomatic lower limb peripheral artery disease (PAD) compared to non-eluting devices (NED). MethodsThe study is a retrospective, single-center registry on patients undergoing EVT for PAD from January 2009 to June 2018. Propensity score analysis on logistic regression model for independent predictors of long-term mortality was used to match PED and NED patients. Mortality was assessed at 2, 5 and 7 years in the entired matched population and in a sub-group of patients ≤75 years. ResultsDuring the study period, 1294 patients, 718 NED and 576 PED, met the inclusion/exclusion criteria and entered in the study. Propensity score matching analysis identified 854 matched patients, 414 PED and 440 NED. The population was mainly characterized by diabetic patients with CLI (80%) and high prevalence of CAD (30%), heart failure (15%) and renal insufficiency (20%). Mean follow-up length was 58 ± 34 months, (median 52.5). Mortality was 18% in NED vs 12% in PED patients at two years (p = 0.01), 36% vs 30% at 5 years (p = 0.03) and 41% vs 39% at seven years (p = 0.2) respectively. In patients ≤75 years, mortality at 7-year was 28% in PED vs 36% in NED, p = 0.07. ConclusionThese results suggest a reduced mortality at 2 and 5 years with PED as compare to NED treatment in a real-world CLI scenario. At 7-year follow-up, the advantage was numerically evident only in patients ≤75 years.

Monocyte-to-albumin ratio as a novel predictor of long-term adverse outcomes in patients after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Background: Monocyte count and serum albumin (Alb) have been proven to be involved in the process of systemic inflammation. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic value of monocyte-to-albumin ratio (MAR) in patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).Methods: We enrolled a total of 3561 patients in the present study from January 2013 to December 2017. They were divided into two groups according to MAR cut-off value (MAR < 0.014, n=2220; MAR ≥ 0.014, n=1119) as evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The average follow-up time was 37.59 ± 22.24 months.Results: The two groups differed significantly in the incidences of all-cause mortality (ACM; P<0.001), cardiac mortality (CM; P<0.001), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs; P=0.038), and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs; P=0.037). Multivariate Cox regression analyses revealed MAR as an independent prognostic factor for ACM and CM. The incidence of ACM increased by 56.5% (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.565; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.086–2.256; P=0.016) and that of CM increased by 76.3% (HR = 1.763; 95% CI, 1.106–2.810; P=0.017) in patients in the higher-MAR group. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis suggested that patients with higher MAR tended to have an increased accumulated risk of ACM (Log-rank P<0.001) and CM (Log-rank P<0.001).Conclusion: The findings of the present study suggested that MAR was a novel independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients who underwent PCI.

Relationship between Vitamin D Deficiency, Albuminuria, Peripheral Artery Disease and 5-year Mortality in Chronic Kidney Disease.

To investigate the effects of vitamin D deficiency, albuminuria and peripheral artery disease (PAD) relationships, on 5-year mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) . Observational study. Department of Internal Medicine, Kartal Dr Lutfi Kırdar City Hospital, İstanbul, Turkey, from August 2015 to August 2020. The study included patients with stage 2-4 CKD, who were not previously diagnosed with peripheral artery disease (PAD) and were not on hemodialysis. Each patient's ankle-brachial index (ABI) was measured at rest with a portable vascular hand doppler; and an ABI of <0.9 was considered to be PAD. The mortality status of the participants were confirmed by the national death reporting system. A total of 110 CKD patients, mean age of 62.1±9.7 years, 36.4% women, were included in the study. It was found that 17.3% of the patients had vitamin D deficiency, 15.4% had vitamin D insufficiency, 32.7% had asymptomatic PAD, 33.9% had microalbuminuria and 39.4% had macroalbuminuria. It was observed that as vitamin D levels decreased, the frequency of albuminuria, and the prevalence of PAD, was on an increasing trend. A significant correlation was found between 5-year mortality, gender, body mass index (BMI), glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urine albumin creatinine ratio (UACR), hemoglobin A1c (A1c), calcium (Ca), phosphate (P), vitamin D, ankle brachial index (ABI), and the neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) as a result of univariate cox-regressionanalysis. In the multivariate cox-regression model, it was observed that vitamin D, ABI and UACR levels continued being significant, independent of age, gender, BMI and eGFR levels. Conclusion: Vitamin D deficiency, PAD and albuminuria, which are separate predictors of mortality, were shown to be independent predictors of long-term mortality in CKD patients. Key Words: Chronic kidney disease, Mortality, Peripheral arterial disease, Vitamin D deficiency, Albuminuria, Ankle-brachial index.

Sex-specific differences and long-term outcome of patients with coronary artery disease and chronic kidney disease: the Coronary Artery Disease and Renal Failure (CAD-REF) Registry

BackgroundCardiovascular morbidity and mortality are closely linked to chronic kidney disease (CKD). Sex-specific long-term outcome data of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and CKD are scarce.MethodsIn the prospective observational multicenter Coronary Artery Disease and REnal Failure (CAD-REF) Registry, 773 (23.1%) women and 2,579 (76.9%) men with angiographically documented CAD and different stages of CKD were consecutively enrolled and followed for up to 8 years. Long-term outcome was evaluated using survival analysis and multivariable Cox-regression models.ResultsAt enrollment, women were significantly older than men, and suffered from more comorbidities like CKD, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and multivessel coronary disease. Regarding long-term mortality, no sex-specific differences were observed (Kaplan–Meier survival estimates: 69% in women vs. 69% in men, plog-rank = 0.7). Survival rates decreased from 89% for patients without CKD at enrollment to 72% for patients with CKD stages 1–2 at enrollment and 49% for patients with CKD stages 3–5 at enrollment (plog-rank < 0.001). Cox-regression analysis revealed that sex or multivessel coronary disease were no independent predictors of long-term mortality, while age, CKD stages 3–5, albumin/creatinine ratio, diabetes, valvular heart disease, peripheral artery disease, and left-ventricular ejection fraction were predictors of long-term mortality.ConclusionsSex differences in CAD patients mainly exist in the cardiovascular risk profile and the extent of CAD. Long-term mortality was not depended on sex or multivessel disease. More attention should be given to treatment of comorbidities such as CKD and peripheral artery disease being independent predictors of death.Clinical Trail Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00679419Graphic abstract

ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction Complicated by Cardiogenic Shock: Early Predictors of Very Long-Term Mortality.

Background. Cardiogenic shock (CS) is the leading cause of in-hospital mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Only limited data are available on the long-term outcome of STEMI patients with CS undergoing contemporary treatment. We aimed to investigate long-term mortality and its predictors in STEMI patients with CS and to develop a risk score for long-term mortality prediction. Methods and Results. We retrospectively included 465 patients with STEMI complicated by CS and treated with primary angioplasty and intra-aortic balloon pump between 2005 and 2018. Long-term mortality, including both in-hospital mortality and all-cause mortality following discharge from the index hospitalization, was the primary endpoint. The long-term mortality (median follow-up 4 (2.0–5.2) years) was 60%, including in-hospital mortality (34%). At multivariate analysis, independent predictors of long-term mortality were age (HR 1.41, each 10-year increase), admission left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 1.51, each 10%-unit decrease) and creatinine (HR 1.28, each mg/dl increase), and acute kidney injury (HR 1.81). When these predictors were pooled together, the area under the curve (AUC) for long-term mortality was 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.84). Using the four variables, we developed a risk score with a mean (cross-validation analysis) AUC of 0.79. When the score was applied to in-hospital mortality, its AUC was 0.79, and 0.76 when the score was applied to all-cause mortality following discharge. Conclusions. In STEMI patients with CS, the risk of death is still substantial in the years following the index event. A simple clinical score at the time of the index event accurately predicts long-term mortality risk.

The relationship between self-care, long-term mortality, and heart failure hospitalization: insights from a real-world cohort study.

The assumption that improved self-care in the setting of heart failure (HF) care necessarily translates into improvements in long-term mortality and/or hospitalization is not well established. We aimed to study the association between self-care and long-term mortality and other major adverse HF events (MAHFE). We conducted an observational, prospective, cohort study of 1123 consecutive patients with chronic HF. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. We used the European Heart Failure Self-care Behaviour Scale 9-item version (EHFSCBS-9) to measure global self-care (overall score) and three specific dimensions of self-care including autonomy-based adherence, consulting behaviour and provider-based adherence. After a mean follow-up of 3.3 years, all-cause death occurred in 487 patients (43%). In adjusted analysis, higher EHFScBS-9 scores (better self-care) at baseline were associated with lower risk of all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 0.993, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.988-0.997), P-value = 0.002], cardiovascular (CV) death [HR 0.989, 95% CI (0.981-0.996), P-value = 0.003], HF hospitalization [HR 0.993, 95% CI (0.988-0.998), P-value = 0.005], and the combination of MAHFE [HR 0.995, 95% CI (0.991-0.999), P-value = 0.018]. Similarly, impaired global self-care [HR 1.589, 95% CI (1.201-2.127), P-value = 0.001], impaired autonomy-based adherence [HR 1.464, 95% CI (1.114-1.923), P-value = 0.006], and impaired consulting behaviour dimensions [HR 1.510, 95% CI (1.140-1.923), P-value = 0.006] were all associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality. In this study, we have shown that worse self-care is an independent predictor of long-term mortality (both, all-cause and CV), HF hospitalization, and the combinations of these endpoints in patients with chronic HF. Important dimensions of self-care such as autonomy-based adherence and consulting behaviour also determine the risk of all these outcomes in the long term.

Association of type 2 diabetes mellitus and mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery- a meta analysis

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Background- Recent studies have demonstrated the favorable cardiovascular outcomes of coronary artery bypass graft surgery (CABG) among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, little is known regarding the impact of T2DM in patients undergoing CABG. We aimed to compare the long-term mortality following CABG in patients with and without T2DM. Methods-Electronic databases ( PubMed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane) were searched from inception to December 15th, 2020. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated from dichotomous data using Mantel Haenszel (M-H) random-effects with statistical significance to be considered if the confidence interval excludes 1 and p &amp;lt; 0.05.The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Results-Sixteen studies with a total of 183,200 participants (DM = 51,474, Non-DM = 131,726) were included in our analysis. Average follow up was 3 years. Mean age was 56.7 and 54.8 in the DM and Non-DM groups respectively. A statistically significantly higher rate of mortality was observed in patients with T2DM (OR 1.54; 95%CI 1.40-1.69; p &amp;lt; 0.00001, I2 = 36)as opposed to patients without T2DM. Conclusion- Although CABG is the better revascularization strategy as opposed to PCI, Type 2 DM is an independent predictor for long-term mortality after CABG surgery. Abstract Figure.

Myocardial revascularization surgery: short and long-term survival analysis

This study sets out to describe the survival and clinical evolution of patients who undergo myocardial re-vascularisation surgery, and identifies the short- and long-term predictive factors for surgical outcomes. Study of a cohort of 175 patients undergoing pure or mixed coronary myocardial revascularisation surgery at a heart surgery unit, recruited between 2008 and 2010 and monitored for ten years. Descriptive and logistic regression (OR and 95%CI) analysis were carried out, along with an analysis of survival by Kaplan Meier and Cox uni- and multivariate regression (HR and 95%CI) in the short- (one year) and long-term (ten years). Predominantly male cohort (85.1%), mean age of 67 years (45-84), and mean EuroSCORE of 5.3%. Mortality was 6.8 and 26.9% at 1 and 10 years, respectively. Mean survival of deceased individuals was 40 months (32.2-47.8). In the short-term, a better NYHA =III preoperative functional level was not significantly associated with lower mortality (OR: 0.11; 95%CI: 0.01-1.08; p=0.058), while being female (OR: 2.94; 95%CI: 1.01-8.57; p=0.048) and having a EuroSCORE of >4% (OR: 4.94; 95%CI: 1.52-16.10; p=0.008) showed an increased risk of presenting adverse cardiac events. In the long-term, greater age (HR: 1.06; 95%CI: 1.01-1.10; p=0.026) and lower rates of body mass index after the first postoperative year (HR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.81-0.99; p=0.040) were independent predictors of mortality. Age was an independent predictor of long-term mortality, while being female and a EuroSCORE >4% were associated with a higher risk of suffering from short-term cardiovascular events.

Predictors of long-term mortality in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction patients undergoing emergent coronary artery bypass graft surgery

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery as a primary treatment for acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is still debated. This study aimed to evaluate the predictors of long-term mortality in STEMI patients undergoing emergent CABG. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate the long-term mortality predictors in patients with STEMI revascularized by primary CABG.This retrospective study included 88 consecutive patients with STEMI, who did not qualify for primary percutaneous intervention and required emergent CABG between 2010 and 2017. The study population was divided into the following 2 groups: survivors and nonsurvivors. The 2 groups were compared in terms of demographics, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative characteristics.23 of the 88 patients, died during the median 92.8 (69.0-105.1) months of follow-up. Data were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses. Killip class (p<0.001) was found to be an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients with STEMI revascularized by CABG, and mortality rates increased significantly as Killip class increased (log-rank test, p<0.001). Moreover, age (p=0.044) was found to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality. Left ventricular ejection fraction, glomerular filtration rate, glucose levels, and left anterior descending artery to the left internal mammary artery graft usage (p=0.001, p=0.009, p<0.001, and p=0.039, respectively) were significantly associated with long-term all-cause mortality for our study population.Killip class was found to be an independent predictor of long-term all-cause mortality in patients with STEMI who underwent emergent CABG. The patients' admission status may give valuable information about long-term mortality.

Initial diastolic dysfunction is a powerful predictor of 5-year mortality in peripheral arterial disease patients undergoing percutaneous transluminal angioplasty

Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and heart failure share common risks and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, it is unknown whether cardiac function can be an independent predictor of long-term mortality in patients with PAD. In total, 902 patients who underwent percutaneous transluminal angioplasty for PAD were enrolled. The patients were categorized into three groups according to the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF): reduced EF (< 40%, n = 62); mid-range EF (40-49%, n = 76); and preserved EF (≥ 50%, n = 764). Echocardiographic (EF, ratio of mitral inflow velocity to annular velocity E/e' ≥ 15, and others) and clinical parameters were tested using stepwise logistic regression analysis to determine independent predictors of 5-year mortality. A higher proportion of patients with reduced EF had ischemic heart disease than those with preserved EF (77.4% vs. 56.8%, p < 0.001). Up to 5years, patients with reduced EF and mid-range EF showed a higher incidence of total death than those with normal EF. However, there was no difference in the incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularization among the three groups. After multivariable adjustment, the ratio of E/e' ≥ 15 was the only strong predictor of total mortality (hazard ratio 6.14; 95% confidence interval 3.7-10.1; p < 0.01). Patients with PAD and reduced EF undergoing PTA had a higher incidence of total death during the 5-year follow-up. Initial tissue Doppler E/e' ≥ 15, a non-invasive estimate of left atrial filling pressure, was the only independent predictor of long-term mortality. The relationship between PAD and HF.

Nutritional risk is a predictor for long-term mortality: 5-Year follow-up of the EFFORT trial

The nutritional risk screening (NRS 2002) is a validated screening tool for malnutrition. This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of the NRS 2002 and its individual components regarding long-term mortality and adverse outcomes in a well-characterized cohort of medical inpatients. We performed a 5-year follow-up investigation of patients included in the investigator-initiated, prospective, randomized controlled multicenter EFFORT trial that evaluated the effects of individualized nutritional intervention vs. standard hospital food. We used multivariable cox regression analyses adjusted for randomisation arm, study centre, comorbidities and main admission diagnosis to investigate associations between NRS 2002 total scores at time of hospital admission and several long-term outcomes. We had confirmed mortality data over the mean follow-up time of 3.2 years in 1874 from the initial cohort of 2028 EFFORT patients. Mortality showed a step-wise increase in patients with NRS 3 (289/565 [51.2%]) and NRS 4 (355/717 [49.6%]) to 59.5% (353/593) in patient with NRS≥5 corresponding to an adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.28 (95%CI 1.15 to 1.42, p≤0.001) for mortality after one year and 1.13 (95%CI 1.05 to 1.23, p=0.002) for the overall time period. All individual components of NRS including disease severity, food intake, weight loss and BMI provided prognostic information regarding long-term mortality risk. Nutritional risk mirrored by a NRS 2002 total score is a strong and independent predictor of long-term mortality and morbidity in polymorbid medical inpatients particularly in patients with high nutritional risk with an NRS ≥5 points.

Prognostic significance of suboptimal secondary prevention pharmacotherapy after acute coronary syndromes.

Optimal secondary prevention pharmacotherapy is the cornerstone of post-acute coronary syndrome (ACS) management. The prognostic impact of not receiving five guideline-recommended therapies is poorly described. To ascertain the prognostic significance of suboptimal pharmacotherapy in ACS survivors. Consecutive patients with ACS from the Melbourne Interventional Group registry who were alive at 30 days following their index percutaneous coronary intervention were included. Patients were divided into three categories based on the number of secondary prevention medications prescribed. The optimal medical therapy (OMT), near-optimal medical therapy (NMT), suboptimal medical therapy (SMT) groups were prescribed 5, 4 and ≤ 3 medications, respectively. Primary endpoint was long-term mortality. Cox-proportional hazard modelling was undertaken to assess independent predictors of survival. Of the 9375 patients included, 5678 (60.6%) received OMT, 2903 (31.0%) received NMT and 794 (8.5%) received SMT. Patients receiving SMT were older, more likely to be female and had higher burden of comorbidities (renal impairment, congestive heart failure, diabetes, peripheral vascular disease; P < 0.01 for all). SMT was associated with higher long-term mortality at 3.9 ± 2.2 years when compared to NMT and OMT (16.8% vs 10.5% vs 8.2%, P < 0.001). Compared to OMT, SMT was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio, HR 1.62, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.30-2.02, P < 0.01) while NMT was associated with a clinically significant 14% mortality hazard (HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.97-1.34, P = 0.11). There is a graded long-term hazard associated with not receiving OMT after an ACS. Improvements in secondary prevention pharmacotherapy models of care are warranted to further decrease the long-term mortality.

Blood Biomarkers to Predict Long-Term Mortality after Ischemic Stroke.

Stroke is a major cause of disability and death globally, and prediction of mortality represents a crucial challenge. We aimed to identify blood biomarkers measured during acute ischemic stroke that could predict long-term mortality. Nine hundred and forty-one ischemic stroke patients were prospectively recruited in the Stroke-Chip study. Post-stroke mortality was evaluated during a median 4.8-year follow-up. A 14-biomarker panel was analyzed by immunoassays in blood samples obtained at hospital admission. Biomarkers were normalized and standardized using Z-scores. Multiple Cox regression models were used to identify clinical variables and biomarkers independently associated with long-term mortality and mortality due to stroke. In the multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of long-term mortality were age, female sex, hypertension, glycemia, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score. Independent blood biomarkers predictive of long-term mortality were endostatin > quartile 2, tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (TNF-R1) > quartile 2, and interleukin (IL)-6 > quartile 2. The risk of mortality when these three biomarkers were combined increased up to 69%. The addition of the biomarkers to clinical predictors improved the discrimination (integrative discriminative improvement (IDI) 0.022 (0.007–0.048), p < 0.001). Moreover, endostatin > quartile 3 was an independent predictor of mortality due to stroke. Altogether, endostatin, TNF-R1, and IL-6 circulating levels may aid in long-term mortality prediction after stroke.

Sex disparity in secondary prevention pharmacotherapy and clinical outcomes following acute coronary syndrome.

We sought to investigate if sex disparity exists for secondary prevention pharmacotherapy following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and impact on long-term clinical outcomes. We analysed data on medical management 30-day post-percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ACS in 20 976 patients within the multicentre Melbourne Interventional Group registry (2005-2017). Optimal medical therapy (OMT) was defined as five guideline-recommended medications, near-optimal medical therapy (NMT) as four medications, sub-optimal medical therapy (SMT) as ≤3 medications. Overall, 65% of patients received OMT, 27% NMT and 8% SMT. Mean age was 64 ± 12 years; 24% (4931) were female. Women were older (68 ± 12 vs. 62 ± 12 years) and had more comorbidities. Women were less likely to receive OMT (61% vs. 66%) and more likely to receive SMT (10% vs. 8%) compared to men, P < 0.001. On long-term follow-up (median 5 years, interquartile range 2-8 years), women had higher unadjusted mortality (20% vs. 13%, P < 0.001). However, after adjusting for medical therapy and baseline risk, women had lower long-term mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.79-0.98; P = 0.02]. NMT (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05-1.31; P = 0.004) and SMT (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.55-2.07; P < 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of long-term mortality. Women are less likely to be prescribed optimal secondary prevention medications following PCI for ACS. Lower adjusted long-term mortality amongst women suggests that as well as baseline differences between gender, optimization of secondary prevention medical therapy amongst women can lead to improved outcomes. This highlights the need to focus on minimizing the gap in secondary prevention pharmacotherapy between sexes following ACS.