Increase In Average Temperature Research Articles

Spin-polarization and Coulomb interaction dependent thermal rectification in a quantum dot system

Abstract Based on the master equation approach, we investigate the thermal transport through a diode composed of a quantum dot under Coulomb interaction and tunnel-coupled to two ferromagnetic leads with antiparallel spin polarizations. We analyze the effects of spin polarizations, Coulomb interaction, mean temperature and Zeeman splitting on the thermal rectification. Firstly, we find that the thermal rectification effect is enhanced with the increase of spin polarization, because the mirror-symmetry of the system is broken by the anti-parallel spin polarization. Especially, when both leads are fully spin polarized, the asymmetry of the heat transferred by Coulomb interaction under the opposite temperature bias leads to the appearance of perfect thermal rectification and negative differential thermal conductance. Secondly, we find whether the system is in a Coulomb blockade state greatly affects the thermal rectification coefficient. As the average temperature increases or the intradot Coulomb interaction decreases, the system gradually escapes from the Coulomb blockade state, resulting in a reversal of the thermal rectification direction and ultimately leading to an increase in the rectification coefficient. Thirdly, we also find that the Zeeman splitting can be utilized to modulate the behavior of thermal rectification. Thermal rectification occurs only when Zeeman splitting and spin polarization coexist, and under different spin polarizations, the rectification coefficient exhibits different trends with the change of Zeeman splitting. These observations indicate that this structure holds potential application at a thermal rectifier as well as a thermal detector of magnetic fields.

Exploring the Nexus of Climate Change and Substance Abuse: A Scoping Review

Introduction: The increase in average air temperature and multiple extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and droughts, pose significant health risks to humans. This scoping review aims to examine the current state of the existing literature concerning the potential relationship between substance abuse and climate change, along with the aspects it encompasses. Material and methods: The review followed PRISMA guidelines for methodological rigor, aiming to identify studies on drug abuse. Searches were conducted across the primary databases using specific search strings. Quality assessment involved evaluating the research question’s clarity, search strategy transparency, consistency in applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, and reliability of data extraction. Results: Most studies were conducted in the USA. They included observational and retrospective quantitative studies, as well as qualitative and prospective observational ones. Research examined the correlation between extreme weather and some substance abuse. All studies analyzed the adverse effects of climate change, especially heatwaves, on both physiological and pathological levels. Conclusions: The scoping review notes the scarcity of studies about the correlation between substance abuse and climate change, and emphasizes the threats faced by individuals with substance abuse and mental health disorders due to climate change.

Is volumetric pricing for drinking water an effective revenue strategy in rural Mali?

Africa lags behind the world on operational and financial progress to maintain safe drinking water services. In rural Mali, we explore the implications of monthly flat fee contributions and volumetric (pay-as-you-fetch) payments for water use and revenue generation. By assessing 4413 months of data across 177 handpumps, we find that once payment modalities switch from volumetric payments to monthly flat fees, a waterpoint registers a more than three-times higher monthly revenue. While flat fees cover a higher share of the operational costs of providing reliable water services, a subsidy gap persists. Flat fees appear to stimulate daily water use which more than doubles compared to volumetric payments. We estimate that a 1 °C increase in average monthly temperature is associated with 180 more litres of water used every day per handpump, emphasising the importance of climate-resilient water supplies. Based on these insights, we discuss the role of professional service delivery models to support reliable drinking water services for rural communities.

Влияние климатических изменений на развитие сельского хозяйства агроэкологических зон Республики Нигер

Climate change poses a significant threat to the ecosystems and biodiversity of the Niger Republic, especially given the critical role of vegetation cover in maintaining the resilience of local ecosystems. This study analyzed the impact of climate change on vegetation in Niger using geoinformation systems and remote sensing technologies. The main research method was the analysis of satellite data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel, as well as the use of climate data from the NASA POWER Data Access Viewer portal. The results showed a significant increase in average annual temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in various climatic zones of the country, which negatively affects the state of vegetation and agriculture. NDVI analysis revealed degradation of vegetation cover in the northern and eastern regions of the country, indicating the need to develop adaptation strategies and sustainable management of natural resources. Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE NIGER, GEOINFORMATION ANALYSIS, REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH, GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS, VEGETATION COVER, AGRICULTURE, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION

Влияние климатических изменений на развитие сельского хозяйства агроэкологических зон Республики Нигер

Climate change poses a significant threat to the ecosystems and biodiversity of the Niger Republic, especially given the critical role of vegetation cover in maintaining the resilience of local ecosystems. This study analyzed the impact of climate change on vegetation in Niger using geoinformation systems and remote sensing technologies. The main research method was the analysis of satellite data from MODIS, Landsat and Sentinel, as well as the use of climate data from the NASA POWER Data Access Viewer portal. The results showed a significant increase in average annual temperatures and a decrease in precipitation in various climatic zones of the country, which negatively affects the state of vegetation and agriculture. NDVI analysis revealed degradation of vegetation cover in the northern and eastern regions of the country, indicating the need to develop adaptation strategies and sustainable management of natural resources. Keywords: REPUBLIC OF THE NIGER, GEOINFORMATION ANALYSIS, REMOTE SENSING OF THE EARTH, GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS, VEGETATION COVER, AGRICULTURE, ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION

A Review of the Analysis of Austenitic Stainless Steel, Welding Methods, and Ultra-Low Temperature Characteristics for the Manufacture of Liquefied Hydrogen Tanks

Paris agreement’s goal was to the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and limit global temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has reinforced regulations regarding sulfur content, aiming to limit the sulfur content of ship fuel oil from 3.5% to 0.5% from 2020. LNG fuel contains a small amount of sulfur, enabling compliance with IMO’s sulfur content regulations and effectively reducing carbon emissions. However, the main component of LNG is liquefied methane, which has limitations due to methane emissions generated during LNG production, transportation, and distribution. Hydrogen energy is in the spotlight as an alternative fuel to significantly reduce greenhouse gases such as carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and methane. In the case of liquid hydrogen, rather than gaseous hydrogen, the volume is reduced to 1/800, increasing the storage and transport efficiency of hydrogen by about seven times. Additionally, there is an advantage that a separate dehydrogenation process is not required. The most promising material for liquefied hydrogen tanks is austenitic stainless steel (ASS), although there are various materials that can be considered. It is expected that the use of ASS will be actively pursued in the future, especially for applying storage tanks to maritime transportation, where welding is essential. Evaluation methods of the physical properties of the weld in a cryogenic atmosphere for the stability of the liquefied hydrogen storage tank were also discussed.

Comprehensive analysis of the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage (Case study: AqQala, Iran)

ABSTRACT Population growth, community development, and waste generation impact climate, land use, water resources, and urban heat island effect. This research assesses the impacts of climate and land use changes on flood damage for different return periods (RPs) in AqQala area, Iran. Climate change anticipation is conducted using the CMCC-ESM2 model under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) 126, 370, and 585 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 – CMIP6). The LARS-WG model is used to downscale climatic information, and land use mapping is processed through Landsat satellite images in ENVI 5.3. The Markov chain method is implemented for 2050 and 2080 via TerrSet. Hydrographs and inundation maps are generated by an Autodesk Storm and Sanitary Analysis (SSA) and a Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) models. Results show an increase in average annual precipitation (up to 46%) and temperatures (up to 3.39 °C) under different SSP scenarios until 2080. The result indicates that land use changes are more significant than climate change. Peak flood discharge and damages could escalate by 38 and 29%, respectively, in the worst-case scenario. Eco-friendly design and implementation are crucial for improving the situation.

Numerical study of combustion flow field characteristics of industrial gas turbine under different fuel blending conditions

Numerous studies have shown that the mixture of fuel and oxidant significantly influences the flow characteristics and pollutant emissions within the combustion flow field. This study investigates the effects of various methane fuel blending ratios (0.19–0.41) on combustion flow, emission characteristics, performance parameters, and field synergies through numerical simulation. Combustion simulation employs the SST k-ω and flame-generated manifold models. The findings indicate that as the fuel blending ratio increases from 0.19 to 0.41, the temperature at the front end of the cyclone gradually rises, resulting in an average outlet temperature increase of 165 K. The outlet temperature uniformity index (γT) shows minimal variation, while the Pattern Factor (PF) and NO emissions at the outlet gradually increase. Additionally, the fuel blending ratio (α) exhibit a limited impact on CO emissions at the outlet. When α ≥ 0.39, the peak temperature is located in the cyclonic region, resulting in an extremely heterogeneous outlet temperature distribution. Under various operational conditions, NO is primarily concentrated in the high-temperature region near the wall, and the pollutant emission merit function (fe) gradually increase with α. The optimum field synergy and overall performance for the low-resistance heat transfer are attained at α = 0.37. Significant velocity shocks are observed in the near-wall regions on both sides of the combustion chamber, when α ≥ 0.35, based on DMD analysis. To achieve low NO emission, uniform outlet temperature, and ensure safe, long-term operation of the gas turbine, the fuel blending ratio of 0.3 to 0.35 is advised.

Beyond the First Tipping Points of Southern Hemisphere Climate

Analysis of observations, reanalysis, and model simulations, including those using machine learning methods specifically designed for regime identification, has revealed changes in aspects of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation and Australian climate and extremes over the last half-century that indicate transitions to new states. In particular, our analysis shows a dramatic shift in the metastability of the SH climate that occurred in the late 1970s, associated with a large-scale regime transition in the SH atmospheric circulation, with systematic changes in the subtropical jet, blocking, zonal winds, and storm tracks. Analysis via nonstationary clustering reveals a regime shift coincident with a sharp transition to warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures and increased baroclinicity in the large scales of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC), extending across the whole hemisphere. At the same time, the background state of the tropical Pacific thermocline shoaled, leading to an increased likelihood of El Niño events. The SH climate shift in the late 1970s is the first hemispheric regime shift that can be directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change. These changes in dynamics are associated with additional regional tipping points, including reductions in mean and extreme rainfall in south-west Western Australia (SWWA) and streamflow into Perth dams, and also with increases in mean and extreme rainfall over northern Australia since the late 1970s. The drying of south-eastern Australia (SEA) occurred against a background of accelerating increases in average and extreme temperatures across the whole continent since the 1990s, implying further inflection points may have occurred. Analysis of climate model simulations capturing the essence of these observed shifts indicates that these systematic changes will continue into the late 21st century under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Here, we review two decades of work, revealing for the first time that tipping points characteristic of regime transitions are inferred to have already occurred in the SH climate system.

Waste-Heat Renewable Gasifier Design through Taguchi's Method and MANFIS

Ensuring a global average temperature increase of no more than 1.5°C is crucial for aligning with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that a 45% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 or a 25% reduction by the same year is necessary to cap the temperature rise at 2°C. Failure to achieve this target by 2030 would necessitate substantial subsequent reductions to compensate for the delayed progress toward net zero emissions, potentially incurring higher costs. Elevating the focus on enhancing energy efficiency has emerged as a key strategy in expediting progress toward these climate goals. Hydrogen, renowned for its high efficiency and emission-free combustion, is anticipated to play a pivotal role in this endeavor. Traditionally, gasifiers have served as the conduit for transforming inexpensive fuels like coal or biomass into hydrogen. However, their energy-intensive nature poses a challenge.Addressing this inherent issue, an innovative approach known as the external-heating gasifier has been proposed and designed. The design of the external-heating gasifier represents a quintessential nonlinear and multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) problem. To achieve optimal performance, the integration of Taguchi's method and inverse-model technology has been employed, with a simulation platform developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics software.Initially, Taguchi's method was utilized to determine the minimum number of experiments required for a full-factorial design and identify the most critical factors influencing product performance. Subsequently, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was developed with a MIMO–ANFIS architecture. This system was employed to train an inverse model, facilitating the mapping of relationships between each input and output set. In essence, this approach enables the identification of manufacturing parameters that result in optimal performance. To illustrate the efficacy of the proposed method, a simulation study on an existing gasifier is presented.

A research on the relationship between landslide area changes and environmental factors in the southern Tibetan plateau

Introduction: Landslides are known to be one of the most frequent types of geological disasters. However, there is not an established method for large-scale, rapid, and high-precision landslide extraction. The quantitative impact of environmental changes on landslide development is also not well understood, which hinders accurate assessments and decision-making in environmental and disaster response. The polar regions, including the Antarctic, the Arctic, and the Tibetan plateau (TP), sensitive to global environmental changes, are significantly affected by global warming. This leads to extensive landslide development, particularly in the southern TP. This research focuses on new landslides in the southern TP, exploring extraction methods and the relationship between landslides and environmental factors.Methods: Utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and an improved Otsu threshold segmentation algorithm, we processed remote sensing images with 10 m resolution to identify landslide areas. The proposed Normalized Landslide Bare-soil Separation Index (NDLBSI) achieved an 87% pre-extraction accuracy in extracting landslides from Sentinel-2 images from 2019 to 2023. For the pre-extraction results, manual interpretation and correction were carried out, and a model correlating annual landslide changes with environmental factors was established based on least squares multivariate statistical methods.Results: Results show that a significant increase in landslide areas in the southern TP over the past 5 years, correlating with the watershed-wide increase in annual average temperature and vegetation cover, along with a decrease in snow cover area.Discussion: These changes could affect soil and rock moisture, influencing soil stability and landslide occurrence. The study provides valuable insights for large-scale landslide detection and understanding the environmental factors influencing landslides, which is of some significance for landslide hazards early warning.

Building resilience to a warming world: A contribution toward a definition of “Integrated Climate Resilience” specific for buildings - Literature review and proposals

With the forecast of a warmer world, with longer, more frequent and more intense heat waves, it becomes essential to have buildings that are resilient to a rapidly warming climate and able to withstand extreme temperature events.This research investigates the concept of buildings’ resilience. Specifically, the article collects definitions of resilient building found in 32 scientific articles referring primarily to thermal aspects and seeks to associate each definition with one of the two interpretations of resilience, namely the engineering and ecological ones, mainly identified within the theory on resilience. This aimed to assess whether there is a predominant and – more importantly – a clear understanding of resilience for buildings, to which extent this concept is well defined and clear, which is a topic that, to the best of our knowledge, no study on thermal resilience of buildings seems to have examined to date.Results showed a significant lack of consensus regarding the interpretation of buildings’ resilience within the selected literature. Such lack of consensus highlights the ongoing confusion about the concept of buildings’ resilience to the threats posed by the current and future climate; what should this concept include concretely? A certain discrepancy also emerged even between the interpretation used to define resilience and that used for its indicators. Furthermore, the available definitions are observed to be rather generic, not specific to buildings and, in any case, it does not seem easy to make them operative. In addition to the literature analysis, the article proposes a tentative approach, which could usefully arrive at an attempted definition of resilience that is specific to buildings and operative. Starting with buildings, the proposed “bottom-up” approach is innovative compared to the prevailing approach in the literature that starts with definitions of ecological and engineering resilience (top-down) instead. Furthermore, the article delivers a couple of considerations to be accounted for when applying the concept of resilience to buildings: the importance of considering not only extreme events but also climate change understood as an increase in average air temperature and the importance of also including the inherent resilience due to the presence of occupants, whose thermal adaptive behavior can mitigate the risk of power outages by making the building less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.By providing an operational tool for researchers, engineers and planners who intend to strengthen the resilience of the building in the face of climate change, the research contributes to achieving a clearer and shared understanding of how the concept of buildings’ resilience should be declined.

Deleterious Effects of Heat Stress on the Tomato, Its Innate Responses, and Potential Preventive Strategies in the Realm of Emerging Technologies.

The tomato is a fruit vegetable rich in nutritional and medicinal value grown in greenhouses and fields worldwide. It is severely sensitive to heat stress, which frequently occurs with rising global warming. Predictions indicate a 0.2 °C increase in average surface temperatures per decade for the next three decades, which underlines the threat of austere heat stress in the future. Previous studies have reported that heat stress adversely affects tomato growth, limits nutrient availability, hammers photosynthesis, disrupts reproduction, denatures proteins, upsets signaling pathways, and damages cell membranes. The overproduction of reactive oxygen species in response to heat stress is toxic to tomato plants. The negative consequences of heat stress on the tomato have been the focus of much investigation, resulting in the emergence of several therapeutic interventions. However, a considerable distance remains to be covered to develop tomato varieties that are tolerant to current heat stress and durable in the perspective of increasing global warming. This current review provides a critical analysis of the heat stress consequences on the tomato in the context of global warming, its innate response to heat stress, and the elucidation of domains characterized by a scarcity of knowledge, along with potential avenues for enhancing sustainable tolerance against heat stress through the involvement of diverse advanced technologies. The particular mechanism underlying thermotolerance remains indeterminate and requires further elucidatory investigation. The precise roles and interplay of signaling pathways in response to heat stress remain unresolved. The etiology of tomato plants' physiological and molecular responses against heat stress remains unexplained. Utilizing modern functional genomics techniques, including transcriptomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, can assist in identifying potential candidate proteins, metabolites, genes, gene networks, and signaling pathways contributing to tomato stress tolerance. Improving tomato tolerance against heat stress urges a comprehensive and combined strategy including modern techniques, the latest apparatuses, speedy breeding, physiology, and molecular markers to regulate their physiological, molecular, and biochemical reactions.

Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Viticulture in Central Poland: Autoregression Modeling SAT Indicator

Ongoing climate change is having a profound impact on agriculture, which is attracting attention from the scientific community. One of its effects is an increase in average temperature, which is a key factor in grape cultivation. This may increase the popularity of viticulture in central Europe. The aim of this study was to assess the potential for the development of viticulture in central Poland based on SAT changes from 1975 to 2021, in addition to changes in evapotranspiration, occurrence of late spring and early autumn frosts and frosty days in selected years from this period as an important factors relating to climate change. The research utilized data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. The Bai–Perron test was used to determine the direction of temperature changes. An AR(1) autoregression model was used to predict SAT changes in central Poland for the years 2022–2026, based on the results of the Bai–Perron test. As part of the in-depth research on the SAT index, reference evapotranspiration calculations were also made as a second factor that is considered an important indicator of climate change. The Sum of Active Temperatures from 1975 to 2021 in the provinces of central Poland showed an increasing trend of 0.07% per year. The average SAT in central Poland in 2022–2026 is expected to range from 2700 °C to 2760 °C. Considering the current thermal conditions in central Poland and the forecasts for the coming years, it can be expected that vineyard cultivation will develop in this region. However, the research shows that the observed increasing trend in evapotranspiration, both in total in individual years and in the period of the greatest vegetation, i.e., in the months from May to the end of August, will result in an increasing need in central Poland to ensure adequate irrigation in developing vineyards.

Impact of Temperature Variations on Rice Production

The mean temperature might rise up to range of 2.0–4.5°C worldwide by the end of this century. Climatic variables affect the growth and development of the crop differently at different growth stages. The rate of development of a crop depends on the climate. Temperature is the primary factor that influences the growth and productivity of crops. Higher or lower temperatures than the optimum lead to improper crop development and affect rice's phenological stages. Extreme temperature may lead to early maturity of the crop and lower temperature lead to prolonged maturity of the crop which in both cases leads to a decrease in yield. A moderate increase in temperature will not have severe implications, but an increase in average temperature by 20 C will likely have strong negative effects on rice crop production. In several studies, it has been reported that high night temperature decreases the yield potential of rice. Whereas, respiratory losses have been shown to increase due to higher day temperature, leaf conductance and net assimilation rates during the day were reported to be higher.

PENGARUH PEMBERIAN BAWANG MERAH TERHADAP PENURUNAN PANAS PADA BALITA DI KLINIK PRATAMA BERTHA PASAR IV MABAR HILIR TAHUN 2023

hyperthermia > 37.5. The thermal effect of shallots is based on the utilization of thermal energy through conduction and evaporation, or insulation from other objects through direct contact. The aim is to carry out midwifery care by providing intervention and observation by applying the red onion technique to reducing heat in toddlers at the Pratama Bertha Pasar IV Mabar Hilir clinic in 2023. There This is a pre-treatment test and a post-treatment test that can be more accurately identified and compared to the pre-treatment test. This research activity aims to determine sthe effect of giving crushed shallots To lower the body temperature of a febrile infant. Result is, 15 respondents after being given the Crush of Shallots, most of the Toddlers experienced a decrease in body temperature, namely as many as 13 respondents (86.7%).Conclusion: This can be seen from the research results as many as 15 toddlers with fever before being given shallots had an average increase in heat of 15 respondents (100) while after being given shallots experienced an average increase in temperature of 2 respondents (1.13) Keywords: Shallots, Toddlers, Fever

Exploring the reproductive features of Clupisoma garua from Ganges River, Bangladesh: insights into eco-climatic factors for sustainable management and advancements in aquaculture practices.

The Garua bacha, Clupisoma garua, holds considerable commercial and nutritional significance as a fish species. This study investigates the relationships between GSI (gonadosomatic index) and eco-climatic conditions, and provides comprehensive insights into several facets of reproduction, such as size at first sexual maturity (Lm), spawning season, peak spawning period, and proposes sustainable management strategies for C. garua in the Ganges River, northwestern, Bangladesh. Since January to December 2017, 570 female individuals have been gathered from the Ganges River using cast nets, gill nets, and square lift nets on a monthly basis. The total length (TL) of the specimens varied from 3.90 to 26.30cm. Lm was estimated as 14.30cm based on the results of the TL vs. GSI, MGSI (modified gonadosomatic index), DI (Dobriyal index), 14.00cm through TL-FL regressions, and 15.18cm depending on Lmax for this species. Furthermore, the spawning period was observed from May to August, peaking in June and July, based on greater GSI, MGSI, and DI values. Throughout the peak spawning season, there was not a significant differ from a value of 100 in the relative weight (WR) of the female species. During the spawning season, a substantial association between temperature and GSI (p = 0.0038); rainfall and GSI (p = 0.0043); DO and GSI (p = 0.0043); pH and GSI (p = 0.0002); and alkalinity and GSI (p = 0.0001) was detected. Analyzing a 55-year data series (1964-2018), it became clear that an increase in average air temperature of 0.0289 °C and a decrease in rainfall of 2.988mm per year might possibly delay the spawning season of this species. As a consequence, the results of this study provide crucial information for developing management strategies to safeguard C. garua populations in the Ganges River and its adjacent ecosystems.

A Scaling Relation for Core Heating by Giant Impacts and Implications for Dynamo Onset

AbstractAccretional heating of Earth's interior during formation is pivotal to its subsequent thermal and chemical evolution. In particular, impact heating of Earth's core is expected, but its amplitude and radial distribution within the core is unknown and could influence the onset of the geodynamo. The uncertainty is due, in part, to the lack of constraints on the temperature of the interior following formation due to the difficulty of preserving a record of such a high energy environment, and the assertion that super‐heating during formation would be rapidly lost through magma ocean cooling. Here we systematically investigate core heating due to giant impacts using a Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code with simulations spanning a range of impact angles, velocities, and masses. From these simulations we derive a scaling relation for core heating that depends on the impact parameters and predicts the radial core temperature profile following the impact. Our findings show that a significant amount of heat is deposited into the core, with a canonical impact scenario resulting in an average core temperature increase of about 3000 K, approximately 500 K higher than that of the overlying mantle. In this case the heat distribution within the core produces a strong thermal stratification. We use a parameterized cooling model to estimate that the core could have cooled to an adiabatic state ∼290 Myr after a canonical impact, which is consistent with the observed time span between the age of the Moon and evidence for an active geodynamo.

Probabilistic projections of temperature and rainfall for climate risk assessment in Vietnam

ABSTRACT In this study, we developed a probabilistic model using the surrogate mixed model ensemble (SMME) method to project temperature and rainfall in Vietnam under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The SMME model combines patterns from 31 global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their weighted model surrogates. Testing for the period of 2006–2018 demonstrated the SMME's ability to encompass observed temperature and rainfall changes. By the end of the 21st century, there is a 5% probability of average temperature increase exceeding 6.29 °C, and a 95% probability of minimum temperature increasing by more than 2.21 °C during 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 compared to 1986–2005. Meanwhile, rainfall is projected to slightly increase, with an average rise of 6.12% at the 5% probability level. The study also quantified the contributions of uncertainty sources – unforced, forced, and scenario-related – to the projection results, revealing that unforced uncertainty dominates the total signal at the beginning of the 21st century and gradually decreases, while forced uncertainty remains relatively moderate but increases gradually over time. As we approach the end of the century, scenario uncertainty dominates, accounting for 75–80% of the total signal.

Fuzzy clustering-based climatic zoning method for building climate responsiveness in Qinba region, China

Accurate climate zoning is crucial for enhancing energy efficiency. This study aims to further subdivide microclimate zones to enhance the precision of climate zoning and subsequently propose climate response strategies for the refined areas. The Qinba region, a climatic transition zone between northern and southern China, serves as the focal point of this study. The research employs a fuzzy clustering method, utilizing integrated weights on seven meteorological indicators spanning 40-year period, to delineate climate zones in the Qinba region. The results indicate that parts of Qinba region can be categorized into three clusters significantly correlated with altitude, which are closely consistent with the distribution of climate data and previous researches. Lower altitude areas experience hot summers and warm winters, while higher altitude regions have warm summers and cold winters with a larger increase in average annual temperature. Furthermore, this research confirms the alignment of climate zones with climate response strategies through investigation of over 30 traditional villages with climatic experience and simulation of three typical cities using climate software. Both sources emphasize the significance of sun shading, ventilation, and solar gain as key strategies applicable across all three zones. The proposed method accurately synthesizes various dimensions of meteorological data and is suitable for small-scale climate zoning. It can provide valuable insights for advancing climate-complex small-area zoning and climate-responsive strategies.