Increase In Average Temperature Research Articles

Research on creep and thermal stability of asphalt under outdoor aging (NEA) in Tibetan areas

In order to explore the aging performance attenuation mechanism of 90# and SBS (styrene–butadiene–styrene block copolymer) modified asphalt under the large temperature difference and strong ultraviolet radiation in the Tibetan area, this paper adopts the outdoor natural exposure aging (NEA) condition in the Tibetan area. Scanning calorimetry and thermogravimetric analysis techniques were used to test and analyse the permanent deformation resistance and thermal stability of two asphalts with different aging times (0 month (0M), April (4M) and 8 months (8M)) to study the on-site aging mechanism of asphalt in Tibetan areas. The results show that with the prolongation of NEA time, the non-recoverable creep compliance, polymer area and glass transition temperature of the two asphalts decrease, while the average recovery rate and deformation temperature increase, and the aging degree gradually deepens. Under the special outdoor conditions in Tibetan areas, the permanent deformation resistance and thermal stability of SBS modified asphalt are better than 90# asphalt. The research results explored the aging and decay mechanism of the two asphalts from the macro and micro perspectives, which provided theoretical support for the research and development of anti-aging technology in Tibetan areas and guaranteeing the road performance of asphalt pavement in the whole life cycle.

Changes in Meteorological Elements and Its Impacts on Yunnan Plateau Lakes

In this study, we analyzed the main climatic factors influencing nine plateau lakes in Yunnan Province over the past 40 years (from 1980 to 2019) based on trend and mutation analyses. The results revealed that the air temperatures of these plateau lakes have increased, with an annual average air temperature increase of 0.18 °C per decade, during this 40-year period. From 2000 to 2005, there was an abrupt change in the air temperature increase, the rate of which was 0.20 °C per decade, and there were reductions in long-wave radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation, and snowfall. In addition, the rising trend in the air temperature of these lakes located in northwest Yunnan (temperate climate, higher elevation) was found to be significantly higher than that of the lakes in central Yunnan (subtropical climate, lower elevation), whereas in contrast, the declining trends in long-wave radiation, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation were more pronounced in central than in northwestern Yunnan.

Investigating defects and annual degradation in UK solar PV installations through thermographic and electroluminescent surveys

As the adoption of renewable energy sources, particularly photovoltaic (PV) solar, has increased, the need for effective inspection and data analytics techniques to detect early-stage defects, faults, and malfunctions has become critical for maintaining the reliability and efficiency of PV systems. In this study, we analysed thermal defects in 3.3 million PV modules located in the UK. Our findings show that 36.5% of all PV modules had thermal defects, with 900,000 displaying single or multiple hotspots and ~250,000 exhibiting heated substrings. We also observed an average temperature increase of 21.7 °C in defective PV modules. Additionally, two PV assets with 19.25 and 8.59% thermal defects were examined for PV degradation, and results revealed a higher degradation rate when more defects are present. These results demonstrate the importance of implementing cost-effective inspection procedures and data analytics platforms to extend the lifetime and improve the performance of PV systems.

Evolution mechanism of temperature field of the frozen wall of the vertical shaft under cold energy extraction

ABSTRACT To verify the feasibility of extracting the excess cold energy of the frozen wall and clarify the variation mechanism of the frozen wall temperature field during the cold energy extraction process, this study carried out the field extraction experiment of the excess cold energy of the frozen wall in the central air shaft of Linhuan Coal Mine. The results showed that the maximum temperature difference of salt liquid before and after cold extraction was 19.9°C. The extraction effect of the frozen wall cold energy was very significant. Through numerical simulation, this study reproduced the whole process of cold energy extraction of the frozen wall, and find that on the 30th day of cold energy extraction, the average temperature increase of the frozen wall under the scheme of main row hole plus auxiliary hole cold energy extraction is 2.2 times that of only main row hole cold energy extraction. The main surface temperature of the frozen wall shows a “wavy” distribution, and the lowest point is in the central area of the frozen wall. The main surface temperature rises with the increase of cold energy extraction time. And on the 30th day of cold energy extraction, the temperature in the east, south, west, and north of the frozen wall increased by 5.8°C, 12.5°C, 8.5°C, 11.1°C, respectively. Meanwhile, it is found that the higher the salt temperature, the higher the thermal conductivity of the frozen wall, and the faster the average temperature increases.

Changing Climatic Conditions Affect Snow Cover in Annapurna Region of Nepal

Changing climatic conditions affecting the physical environment, hydrology, forest and wildlife, agriculture, and other sectors of the economy has become a major concern worldwide. The Annapurna Range in the Central Himalayas in Nepal is experiencing impacts of climate change on various fronts, including temperature increase and change in snow cover area (SCA). The objectives of this study were to assess spatio-temporal variation in temperature, precipitation, and SCA in the Annapurna massif and establish a relationship between these variables. This study analyzed the daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation records of six weather stations in the region, and performed a long-term analysis (1990–2020) of snow cover over Annapurna massif analysing Satellite images from the past three decades provided by satellite 5 through 8 of the Landsat program and Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. The SCA was determined through Landsat images using the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). Temperature analysis showed that the northeast (Chame) and northwest (Jomsom) parts of the massif were undergoing a consistent increase in average temperature at the rate of 0.07 and 0.03∘∘C per year, respectively. A north-south gradient was observed in total annual precipitation with total precipitation increasing in Ghandruk and Ranipauwa (Muktinath) at 50 mm and 4.8 mm per year, respectively, and decreasing in Manang Bhot at 4.7 mm per year. The precipitation events increased during spring in the west (Lete), northwest (Jomsom), and south (Ghandruk) of the massif, whereas it decreased in the north (Manang Bhot) and northeast (Chame) for all seasons. The SCA varied from 397 km22 to 1735 km22 with a significantly decreasing trend in December. There was a non-significant SCA increase during March, indicating that more snow coverage could appear in the spring in the future. These results could help local communities, government agencies, tourism industries, and other stakeholders develop resource management plans and climate change adaptation strategies.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries

BackgroundEvidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations. ObjectivesWe investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries. MethodsLocation-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model. ResultsHeat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6–7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2–11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1–14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5–1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1–5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7–8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively. DiscussionWe observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Elevation-dependent warming of streams in mountainous regions: implications for temperature modeling and headwater climate refugia

Climate change is warming stream temperatures with significant implications for species that require cold temperatures to persist. These species often rely on headwater habitats in mountainous regions where elevation gradients in hydroclimatic conditions may induce differential patterns of long-term warming that affect the resistance of refugia. Forecasts from mechanistic and statistical stream temperature models diverge regarding whether this elevation dependence will cause above- or below-average warming in headwaters during warm summer periods, so we examined monitoring records for stream temperature (n = 271), air temperature (n = 690), and stream discharge (n = 131) across broad elevation gradients in a mountainous region of western North America to better understand potential future trends. Over a 40-year period characterized by rapid climate change from 1976–2015, air temperature stations exhibited below-average warming rates at high elevations while stream discharge declined at above average rates. Between climatically extreme years that involved summer air temperature increases >5 °C and discharge declines >70%, temperatures in high-elevation streams exhibited below average increases but otherwise showed negligible elevation dependence during intermediate climate years. In a subsequent example, it was demonstrated that elevation dependent stream warming has a minor effect on the amount of thermal habitat loss relative to the average water temperature increase within a mountain river network. We conclude that predictions of above average warming effects on headwater organisms for this region may be overly pessimistic and discuss reasons why different types of temperature models make divergent forecasts. Several research areas warrant greater attention, including descriptions of elevation-dependent patterns in other regions for comparative purposes, examination of long-term stream temperature records to understand how sensitivity to climate forcing may be evolving, use of new data sources to better represent key processes in temperature models across broad areas, and development of hybrid models that integrate the best attributes of mechanistic and statistical approaches.

Study on heat transfer performance of immersion system based on SiC/white mineral oil composite nanofluids

With the rapid development of the global digital economy, the number and size of data centers are also expanding. The high energy consumption of data centers has become a highly concerned issue in the industry. Immersion cooling is a thermal strategy for servers with high heat flux density in data centers. The low thermal conductivity of its working medium has become the main bottleneck hindering its application. In this study, the performance of heat transfer of the SiC/white mineral oil-based nanofluids as new coolant and oil as traditional coolant under different heat loads are presented. The heat transfer capacity in different application scenarios is explored. The results of the simulations show that with the new coolant, the maximum surface heat transfer coefficient of bare heat source is increased by 11.3% at 100 W. With heatsink and heat pipe auxiliary cooling, the maximum increase is 11.7% and 10.7%, respectively, at 300 W. The contour pictures reveal a considerable decrease of surface and internal high-temperature area using heatsink and heat pipe auxiliary cooling. The analysis of the economy and reliability of the new working fluid concludes that the PUE (Power usage effectiveness) of the new working fluid only increases by 0.07–0.03%, which is negligible. Lastly, after three months of repeated experiments, the average increase in temperature is 0.4–2.3%. It means that the new coolant has good stability and reliability, which proves it has good application prospect in submerged cooling system.

High survival following bleaching underscores the resilience of a frequently disturbed region of the Great Barrier Reef

AbstractNatural bleaching events provide an opportunity to examine how local‐scale environmental variation influences bleaching severity and recovery. During the 2020 marine heat wave, we documented widespread and severe coral bleaching affecting 75%–98% of coral cover throughout the Keppel Islands in the southern inshore Great Barrier Reef. Acropora, Pocillopora, and Porites were the most severely affected genera, while Montipora was comparatively less susceptible. Site‐specific heat‐exposure metrics were not correlated with Acropora bleaching severity, but recovery was faster at sites that experienced lower heat exposure. Despite severe bleaching and exposure to accumulated heat that often results in coral mortality (degree heating weeks ~4–8), cover remained stable. Approximately 94% of fate‐tracked Acropora millepora colonies survived, perhaps due to reduced irradiance stress from high turbidity, heterotrophic feeding, and large tidal flows that can increase mass transfer. Severe bleaching followed by rapid recovery and the continuing dominance of Acropora populations in the Keppel Islands is indicative of high resilience. These coral communities have survived a 0.8°C increase in average temperatures over the last 150 years. However, recovery following the 2020 bleaching was driven by the easing of thermal stress, which may challenge their recovery potential under further warming.

Crime, Weather and Climate Change in Australia*

We estimate the effect of temperature on monthly crime using a panel dataset that matches weather with crime rates for over 3,000 postcodes in Australia over the period 2001–2019. We find that a standard deviation increase in average temperature is associated with a 0.008–0.011 standard deviation increase in the crime rate, depending on the specification. This translates to over 72,000 additional crimes per year across Australia. We estimate that over the course of the rest of the century, under a business‐as‐usual pathway, climate change will be responsible for approximately 1.64 million additional crimes.

Sustainable management of water resources and assessment of the vulnerability of Moroccan oases to climate change.

In the oases of Morocco, climate trends show an increase in average temperatures of 2.2°C and exacerbated precipitation by + 20% between 2020 and 2050 according to climate change scenarios. The consequences of these changes have a clear decrease in water availability and an increase in water needs. Therefore, analyzing water resource capacity and searching for adequate solutions to water scarcity in oases are essential for developing drylands. In this study, we assess the possible effects of climate change on water scarcity and the oasis ecosystem and its components. The calculated water stress index (WSI) remains very low due to a decrease in the resource impacted by the combined increase in precipitation and temperature. The obtained results indicate that for scenario 1 the WSI varies from 904 to 699m3/inhab/year in 2030 and for scenario 2 the WSI varies between 583 in 2030 and 451m3/inhab/year in 2050. The water availability indicator takes a value in scenario 1 of 75% for Zagora and 50% for Ouarzazate at the horizons 2030 and 2050, then increase in scenario 2 to 89% for Zagora and 78% for Ouarzazate at the horizons2030 and 2050.These results were used to develop the adaptation process, which aims to identify needs, activities, and projects in the short, medium, and long term at the horizons 2030 and 2050. In addition, it could shed light on sustainable development in this region. In addition, this study could be a reference for researchers and a decision-support document for decision-makers to place economic development within an environmental management framework.

Impacts of climate change and fruit tree expansion on key hydrological components at different spatial scales

Assessing how fruit tree expansion and climate variability affect hydrological components (e.g., water yield, surface runoff, underground runoff, soil water, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) at different spatial scales is crucial for the management and protection of watersheds, ecosystems, and engineering design. The Jiujushui watershed (259.32 km2), which experienced drastic forest changes over the past decades, was selected to explore the response mechanisms of hydrological components to fruit tree expansion and climate variability at different spatial scales (whole basin and subbasin scale). Specifically, we set up two change scenarios (average temperature increase of 0.5°C and fruit tree area expansion of 18.97%) in the SWAT model by analyzing historical data (1961∼2011). Results showed that climate change reduced water yield, surface runoff, and underground runoff by 6.75, 0.37, and 5.91 mm, respectively. By contrast, the expansion of fruit trees increased surface runoff and water yield by 2.81 and 4.10 mm, respectively, but decreased underground runoff by 1 mm. Interestingly, the sub-basins showed different intensities and directions of response under climate change and fruit tree expansion scenarios. However, the downstream response was overall more robust than the upstream response. These results suggest that there may be significant differences in the hydrological effects of climate change and fruit tree expansion at different spatial scales, thus any land disturbance measures should be carefully considered.

The hidden microbial ecosystem in the perennial ice from a Pyrenean ice cave.

Over the last years, perennial ice deposits located within caves have awakened interest as places to study microbial communities since they represent unique cryospheric archives of climate change. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, the temperature has gradually increased, and it is estimated that by the end of this century the increase in average temperature could be around 4.0°C. In this context of global warming the ice deposits of the Pyrenean caves are undergoing a significant regression. Among this type of caves, that on the Cotiella Massif in the Southern Pyrenees is one of the southernmost studied in Europe. These types of caves house microbial communities which have so far been barely explored, and therefore their study is necessary. In this work, the microbial communities of the Pyrenean ice cave A294 were identified using metabarcoding techniques. In addition, research work was carried out to analyze how the age and composition of the ice affect the composition of the bacterial and microeukaryotic populations. Finally, the in vivo effect of climate change on the cellular machinery that allow microorganisms to live with increasing temperatures has been studied using proteomic techniques.

Environmental, energy security, and energy equity (3E) benefits of net-zero emission strategy in a developing country: A case study of Nepal

There is a growing number of national, subnational and even company targets for net-zero emissions of CO2 in support of the Paris Climate Agreement goals of limiting the global average temperature increase within 1.5 °C by 2100. The challenges faced by developing countries in achieving net-zero emissions targets are, however, very prominent due to their common desire for rapid economic growth, improved socio-economic conditions, and greater climate resilience. In addition, this has to overcome many constraints related to the competitiveness, acceptability, and sustainability of proposed and planned low-carbon initiatives. It is thus very important to understand the economic and technical characteristics of net-zero emissions concepts and pathways. The constraints can best be addressed if actual and transparent co-benefits related to these initiatives are identified and reflected during their implementation. Here we employ the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to examine Nepal’s recently introduced ‘Long-term Strategy for Net-zero Emissions’ and to estimate anticipated co-benefits in terms of reducing air pollutants emission and enhancing energy security and energy equity. Under the reference scenario (REF), the annual CO2 emission is expected to increase from 23 MtCO2 in 2019 to 79 MtCO2 in 2050 with significant increase in air pollutants emissions in the range of 60% (Organic Carbon) to 183% (SO2), increase in energy import dependency, reaching electricity consumption per capita below one-quarter of the world average. Under the ‘With Additional Measures (WAM)’ strategy scenario, air pollutants would be reduced in the range of 70% (Organic Carbon) to 85% (Black Carbon) respectively, in 2050 as compared to the REF. Similarly, it results drastic improvement in energy security indicators and energy equity. It is expected that the findings of this study will provide useful input to policymakers, private sector, societal actors and researchers in support of successful implementation of the initiatives for sustainable socio-economic transformation pathways.

Thermal Assessment of a Ventilated Double Skin Façade Component with a Set of Air Filtering Photocatalytic Slats in the Cavity

Indoor air quality is a crucial factor when evaluating habitability, especially in developed countries, where people spend most of their time indoors. This paper presents a novel double skin façade (DSF) system that combines physical and photocatalytic filtering strategies. The air purification system is made up of fixed slats that are both solar protection and air purification system. The objective of this work is to determine the thermal behaviour of the proposed system, so that its suitability for use in various environments may be assessed. This was carried out using a physical 1:1 scale model and a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. The maximum temperature inside the scale model cavity was 17–20 °C higher than outdoor air. Additionally, it was discovered that the airflow through the DSF would require forced ventilation. To determine the emissivity values of the photocatalytic coating, additional experimental measurements were made. The CFD model was tested for summer and winter conditions in Barcelona, Chicago, and Vancouver. The average increase in the intake air temperature was around 14.5 °C in winter and 12 °C in summer, finding that the system has its main use potential in temperate or cold areas with many hours of solar radiation.

The Impact of Decreasing Forest Areas on Increasing Global Temperatures

Forests act as a producer of oxygen which is essential for the survival of living things. Degradation of forest areas causes the extinction of various species. It creates a greenhouse gas effect that impacts global warming, triggering regional climate change. This study aimed to determine the effect of decreasing forest area on increasing the annual average temperature in the world. The data used in this study are world forest area data and world average yearly temperature during the 1990-2020 period, with the addition of carbon emission data as a control. The analytical method uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS). The results obtained in this study, namely a decrease in every 1 km2 of forest area, will have a positive impact on increasing the annual average temperature. There was a significant influence in 1990-2010 with an increase in the country's average temperature of 0.0037225oC. An increase in carbon emissions of 1 ppm increases temperature by 1.046833oC. The results of this study illustrate that the reduction in forest area increases temperature, which triggers global climate change. Particular policies are needed from the government to maintain forest sustainability so that the ecosystem is maintained.

Temperature Modeling with the Group Method of Data Handling to Inform Projected Rainfall Depth Changes for Extreme Events in Central West, New South Wales, Australia

The focus of this research is to introduce the application of the polynomial neural network of the group method of data handling (GMDH) for the first time in the regional area of the New South Wales state of Australia. Within this regional context, temperature data are modeled to assess its projected variation impacts on rainfall depth due to climate change. The study area encompasses six local government areas within the state’s Central West region. Stochastic methods for monotonic trend identification were used to support the modeling. Four established homogeneity tests were also used for assessing data integrity by determining the frequency of breakpoints within the mean of the data. The results of the GMDH modeling returned a coefficient of determination exceeding 0.9 for all stations dominated by an overall upward trend with an average maximum temperature increase of 0.459 °C per decade across the study region. The homogeneity tests found all data categorized as useful within the context of applicability for further climate change studies. By combining the modeled upward temperature trend with the intensity frequency distribution (IFD) design rainfall modification factor, projected depth increases by 2070 are obtained, enabling improved designs for stormwater infrastructure based on classified temperature variation scenarios.

The Northward Range Shifting of Agapanthiola Leucaspis Under the Climate Change

Agapanthiola leucaspis is a steppe transpalearctic cerambycid species, widely distributed from the Pannonian lowland in Europe to the Mongolian plateau in Asia. In Ukraine, the species was previously known from the Pontic Plains and the Crimean Peninsula. However, in the last decade, a number of new localities of A. leucaspis have been discovered far outside the original range. We previously hypothesized a possible link between the northward spread of A. leucaspis and the current climate change. In this paper, we tested this hypothesis using computer simulations with GIS technologies. Our primary objective was to determine the critical value of key climatic factors that could potentially trigger the northward and montane range expansion of A. leucaspis. We collected all available data, including our own materials, scientific collections, published scientific papers, and citizen science data on the distribution of A. leucaspis in Ukraine and neighboring countries. These data were separated by the time of records before 2000 and after 2000 according to the change of the current understanding of climatic norm of 1950-2000 due to global warming. As a result, we determined the ecological valency of A. leucaspis in relation to climatic factors and built a model of its original range. Further simulations were associated with a +2.0°C change in global temperature parameters in 0.5°C increments and a 30% increase and decrease in precipitation in 10% increments. Resultantly, we found that the amount of precipitation and the seasonality of temperatures, especially in winter, are crucial factors for the observed fluctuation of A. leucaspis range. An increase in average temperatures eliminates the winter frosts which are limiting factor for the spread of A. leucaspis to the north. The decrease in average annual precipitation increases the probability of the species survival in areas where this was previously impossible. We have shown that to expand the current range of A. leucaspis, it is enough to warm the climate in the annual average by +0.5°C and reduce the amount of precipitation by 10%. A warmer and drier climate is the main abiotic factor for the expansion of A. leucaspis into higher latitudes and mountains.

S-05-3: INFLUENCE OF THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE ON BLOOD PRESSURE IN ASIA

It is well known that cold weather is associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction and stroke. It is also well known that colder weather increases blood pressure while warmer weather lowers blood pressure. This may have clinical significance as global warming is resulting in increase in average temperature in the Asia/Pacific region. Long term, climate change may have a significant impact on the epidemiology of of hypertension and cardiovascular disease. In this talk, we will discuss how ambient temperature influences seasonal variation of BP and how they may impact the management strategy for patients with hypertension.

PROGNOSTIC OF YIELD OF POTATOES OF PROMISING DOMESTIC VARIETIES UNDER THE IMPACT OF STRESS ABIOTIC FACTORS

Twenty four potato varieties (Solanum tuberosum L.) differing in ripening groups (early, middle-early and mid-season-ripening) were studied. Potatoes were grown in the conditions of the Middle Volga region of Russia. It was found statistically that the yield (t/ha) of early and mid-season-ripening varieties was negatively correlated with the increase in average temperatures during the growing season from May to August (R = –0.97, P = 0.04). Soil moisture content at a depth of 20 cm was positively correlated with the yield of middle-early varieties (R = 0.97, P = 0.04). A soil moisture content increase was beneficial to average tuber weight (R = 0.98, P = 0.04), but only in the middle-early and mid-season-ripening groups. However, the soil moisture content and the tuber numbers in mid-season-ripening varieties had a negative correlation (R = –0.96, P = 0.05).