Impact of Climate Change on the Development of Viticulture in Central Poland: Autoregression Modeling SAT Indicator

Abstract

Ongoing climate change is having a profound impact on agriculture, which is attracting attention from the scientific community. One of its effects is an increase in average temperature, which is a key factor in grape cultivation. This may increase the popularity of viticulture in central Europe. The aim of this study was to assess the potential for the development of viticulture in central Poland based on SAT changes from 1975 to 2021, in addition to changes in evapotranspiration, occurrence of late spring and early autumn frosts and frosty days in selected years from this period as an important factors relating to climate change. The research utilized data obtained from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. The Bai–Perron test was used to determine the direction of temperature changes. An AR(1) autoregression model was used to predict SAT changes in central Poland for the years 2022–2026, based on the results of the Bai–Perron test. As part of the in-depth research on the SAT index, reference evapotranspiration calculations were also made as a second factor that is considered an important indicator of climate change. The Sum of Active Temperatures from 1975 to 2021 in the provinces of central Poland showed an increasing trend of 0.07% per year. The average SAT in central Poland in 2022–2026 is expected to range from 2700 °C to 2760 °C. Considering the current thermal conditions in central Poland and the forecasts for the coming years, it can be expected that vineyard cultivation will develop in this region. However, the research shows that the observed increasing trend in evapotranspiration, both in total in individual years and in the period of the greatest vegetation, i.e., in the months from May to the end of August, will result in an increasing need in central Poland to ensure adequate irrigation in developing vineyards.