Increase In Suitable Habitat Research Articles

Differential impact of climate and land use change on habitat suitability of migrant passerines according to habitat preferences

Our study contributes to the ongoing dialogue on the impact of climate and habitat changes on migratory bird species, particularly focusing on how these effects vary based on species’ habitat preferences. We used citizen science data for 22 African-Eurasian migratory bird species and categorized them into five groups based on habitat preferences, following the classification methodology of Atkinson et al. (2014). Using ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM), we projected changes in potentially suitable habitats across Africa from 2040 to 2100 under contrasting climate and land use scenarios. Our results indicate a differential impact of climate and land use changes on habitat suitability, with species preferring habitats with shrubs and trees being the most vulnerable. Conversely, other group species, such as open country-grassland and farmland birds could experience a significant increase in suitable habitat. We anticipate a profound change in habitat suitability, with the western part of South Africa becoming unsuitable for most species, while an increase in suitable habitat is expected in the Sahel. Bioclimatic rather than land use variables emerged as the primary drivers of these changes. The extent of change in habitat suitability will be strongly influenced by the Shared Socio-economic Pathways followed by human societies.

Spatial Distribution and Abundance of a Pelagic Squid during the Evolution of Eddies in the Southeast Pacific Ocean

The Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas), is a significant economic species off Peru. The abundance and distribution of the species are highly susceptible to fluctuations in marine environmental conditions. The evolution of mesoscale eddies represents one of the dynamic processes in the ocean, exerting varying degrees of influence on regional biogeochemical processes from generation to dissipation. However, the mechanisms governing the regulation of abundance and spatial distribution of D. gigas off Peru during this evolution remain unclear. Therefore, this study employed normalization techniques and the habitat suitability index (HSI) model, utilizing data from the D. gigas fishery, mesoscale eddies, and marine environmental factors (including sea surface temperature, temperature at 50 m depth, and chlorophyll-a concentration) to analyze the environmental changes and the abundance, spatial distribution, and habitat changes of D. gigas during the evolution of mesoscale eddies. The results indicate that eddies undergo four stages: formation, intensification, maturity, and decay. During eddy evolution, the abundance of D. gigas exhibited an initial increase and a subsequent decrease within cyclonic eddies (CEs), whereas, within anticyclonic eddies (AEs), abundance showed a gradual decline. The outcome of the HSI model revealed that, the habitat suitability and the proportion of suitable habitat areas within eddies were highly consistent with the abundance of D. gigas during all stages of the eddies other than the intensification stage of AEs. The study speculated that both CEs and AEs can create favorable environmental conditions during the maturity stage, thereby leading to an increase in suitable habitat and abundance of D. gigas. These findings emphasize the significant impact of mesoscale eddy evolution on the abundance and habitat distribution of D. gigas.

Can demographic histories explain long-term isolation and recent pulses of asymmetric gene flow between highly divergent grey fox lineages?

Secondary contact zones between deeply divergent, yet interfertile, lineages provide windows into the speciation process. North American grey foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) are divided into western and eastern lineages that diverged approximately 1 million years ago. These ancient lineages currently hybridize in a relatively narrow zone of contact in the southern Great Plains, a pattern more commonly observed in smaller-bodied taxa, which suggests relatively recent contact after a long period of allopatry. Based on local ancestry inference with whole-genome sequencing (n = 43), we identified two distinct Holocene pulses of admixture. The older pulse (500-3500 YBP) reflected unidirectional gene flow from east to west, whereas the more recent pulse (70-200 YBP) of admixture was bi-directional. Augmented with genotyping-by-sequencing data from 216 additional foxes, demographic analyses indicated that the eastern lineage declined precipitously after divergence, remaining small throughout most of the late Pleistocene, and expanding only during the Holocene. Genetic diversity in the eastern lineage was highest in the southeast and lowest near the contact zone, consistent with a westward expansion. Concordantly, distribution modelling indicated that during their isolation, the most suitable habitat occurred far east of today's contact zone or west of the Great Plains. Thus, long-term isolation was likely caused by the small, distant location of the eastern refugium, with recent contact reflecting a large increase in suitable habitat and corresponding demographic expansion from the eastern refugium. Ultimately, long-term isolation in grey foxes may reflect their specialized bio-climatic niche. This system presents an opportunity for future investigation of potential pre- and post-zygotic isolating mechanisms.

Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Teak and Sal Forests in Central India Using Maximum Entropy Modeling: an Approach for Future Conservation and Silvicultural Strategies

Abstract Climate change impacts on tropical forests and tree species have been documented as changes in distribution, growing period, phenology, habitat, productivity, species composition, and migration. This study attempts to assess the current and future habitat suitability distribution of two dominant species of Central India, teak (Tectona grandis Linn. f.) and sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn. f.) using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict species occurrences by finding the distribution that has the most spread. The future suitable habitat ranges of the species were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Representative concentration pathways are scenarios that describe alternative trajectories for carbon dioxide emissions and the resulting atmospheric concentration from 2000 to 2100. We collected and modeled the spatially well-dispersed species occurrence points of teak and sal. The results suggested an increase in suitable habitat range for teak and a decrease for sal for both time periods and RCPs. Furthermore, the jackknife analysis identified temperature and precipitation seasonality as the major variables that influence the distribution of teak. In the case of sal, minimum temperature makes the maximum contribution to distribution changes. The suitable silvicultural strategies for forest management are proposed based on the future distribution of species in relation to the climate variables responsible for the change in their distribution range. These findings and strategies will help forest departments build future management plans for teak and sal forest with a focus on minimizing the impact of climate change. Study Implications: Our study used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to understand the impact of changing climate on the distribution of teak and sal forests of central India and to propose future silvicultural strategies. The study used MaxEnt model for two time periods and two climate change scenarios at highest resolution. An increase in future suitable habitat for teak and a decrease for sal is predicted by the model. Temperature for teak and precipitation for sal were identified as the major influencing climatic variables. We recommend forest and other related government departments to commission focused research to understand the changing patterns of species with climate change and design appropriate silviculture strategies for effective management.

Snow limits polecat Mustela putorius distribution in Sweden

Many species show range expansions or contractions due to climate change induced changes in habitat suitability. In cold climates, many species that are limited by snow are showing range expansions due to reduced winter severity. The European polecat Mustela putorius occurs over large parts of Europe with its northern range limit in southern Fennoscandia. However, it is to date unknown what factors limit polecat distribution. We thus investigated whether climate or land‐use variables are more important in determining the habitat suitability for polecats in Sweden. We hypothesized that 1) climatic factors, especially the yearly number of snow days, drive habitat suitability for polecats, and that, 2) as the number of snow days is predicted to decline in the near future, habitat suitability in northern Sweden will increase. We used a combination of sightings data and a selection of national maps of environmental factors to test these hypotheses using Maxent models. We also used maps of future climate predictions (2021–2050 and 2063–2098) to predict future habitat suitability. The number of snow days was the most important factor, negatively determining habitat suitability for polecats, as expected. Consequently, the predictions showed an increase in suitable habitat both in the current distribution range and in northern Sweden, especially along the coast of the Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that the polecat distribution is limited by snow and that reduced snow cover will likely result in a northward range expansion. However, the exact mechanisms for how snow limits polecats are still poorly understood. The potential range expansion might result in a population increase of the Scandinavian polecat population, in contrast to many populations elsewhere in Europe, where numbers are declining. Due to polecat predation, the expansion of the species might have cascading effects on other wildlife populations.

Evaluating invasion risk and population dynamics of the brown marmorated stink bug across the contiguous United States.

Invasive species threaten the productivity and stability of natural and managed ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invaders, which can aid in early mitigation efforts, is a major challenge, especially in the face of climate change. While ecological niche models are effective tools to assess habitat suitability for invaders, such models have rarely been created for invasive pest species with rapidly expanding ranges. Here, we leveraged a national monitoring effort from 543 sites over 3 years to assess factors mediating the occurrence and abundance of brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys), an invasive insect pest that has readily established throughout much of the United States. We used maximum entropy models to estimate the suitable habitat of BMSB under several climate scenarios, and generalized boosted models to assess environmental factors that regulated BMSB abundance. Our models captured BMSB distribution and abundance with high accuracy, and predicted a 70% increase in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. However, environmental factors that mediated the geographical distribution of BMSB were different from those driving abundance. While BMSB occurrence was most affected by winter precipitation and proximity to populated areas, BMSB abundance was influenced most strongly by evapotranspiration and solar photoperiod. Our results suggest that linking models of establishment (occurrence) and population dynamics (abundance) offers a more effective way to forecast the spread and impact of BMSB and other invasive species than simply occurrence-based models, allowing for targeted mitigation efforts. Implications of distribution shifts under climate change are discussed. © 2022 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Past, present, and future predictions on the suitable habitat of the Slender racer (Orientocoluber spinalis) using species distribution models.

Species distribution models (SDMs) across past, present, and future timelines provide insights into the current distribution of these species and their reaction to climate change. Specifically, if a species is threatened or not well‐known, the information may be critical to understand that species. In this study, we computed SDMs for Orientocoluber spinalis, a monotypic snake genus found in central and northeast Asia, across the past (last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid‐Holocene), present, and future (2070s). The goal of the study was to understand the shifts in distribution across time, and the climatic factors primarily affecting the distribution of the species. We found the suitable habitat of O. spinalis to be persistently located in cold‐dry winter and hot summer climatic areas where annual mean temperature, isothermality, and annual mean precipitation were important for suitable habitat conditions. Since the last glacial maximum, the suitable habitat of the species has consistently shifted northward. Despite the increase in suitable habitat, the rapid alterations in weather regimes because of climate change in the near future are likely to greatly threaten the southern populations of O. spinalis, especially in South Korea and China. To cope with such potential future threats, understanding the ecological requirements of the species and developing conservation plans are urgently needed.

Managing beach access and vehicle impacts following reconfiguration of the landscape by a natural hazard event

After New Zealand's 7.8 Mw Kaikōura earthquake in late 2016 an unexpected anthropogenic effect involved increased motorised vehicle access to beaches. We show how these effects were generated by landscape reconfiguration associated with coastal uplift and widening of high-tide beaches, and present analyses of the distribution of natural environment values in relation to vehicle movements and impacts. Access changes led to extensive vehicle tracking in remote areas that had previously been protected by natural barriers. New dunes formed seaward of old dunes and have statutory protection as threatened ecosystems, yet are affected by vehicle traffic. Nesting grounds of nationally vulnerable banded dotterel (Charadrius bicinctus bicinctus) co-occur with vehicle tracking. An artificial nest experiment showed that vehicle strikes pose risks to nesting success, with 91% and 83% of nests destroyed in high and moderate-traffic areas, respectively, despite an increase in suitable habitat. Despite gains for recreational vehicle users there are serious trade-offs with environmental values subject to legal protection and associated responsibilities for management authorities. In theory, a combination of low-impact vehicle access and environmental protection could generate win-win outcomes from the landscape changes, but is difficult to achieve in practice. Detailed information on sensitive areas would be required to inform designated vehicle routes as a potential solution, and such sensitivities are widespread. Alternatively, vehicle access areas that accommodate longstanding activities such as boat launching could be formally established using identified boundaries to control impacts further afield. Difficulties for the enforcement of regulatory measures in remote areas also suggest a need for motivational strategies that incentivise low-impact behaviours. We discuss options for user groups to voluntarily reduce their impacts, the importance of interactions at the recreation-conservation nexus, and need for timely impact assessments across the social-ecological spectrum after physical environment changes -- all highly transferable principles for other natural hazard and disaster recovery settings worldwide.

Modeling Geographic Uncertainty in Current and Future Habitat for Potential Populations of Ixodes pacificus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Alaska.

Ixodes pacificus Cooley & Kohls is the primary vector of Lyme disease spirochetes to humans in the western United States. Although not native to Alaska, this tick species has recently been found on domestic animals in the state. Ixodes pacificus has a known native range within the western contiguous United States and southwest Canada; therefore, it is not clear if introduced individuals can successfully survive and reproduce in the high-latitude climate of Alaska. To identify areas of suitable habitat within Alaska for I. pacificus, we used model parameters from two existing sets of ensemble habitat distribution models calibrated in the contiguous United States. To match the model input covariates, we calculated climatic and land cover covariates for the present (1980-2014) and future (2070-2100) climatologies in Alaska. The present-day habitat suitability maps suggest that the climate and land cover in Southeast Alaska and portions of Southcentral Alaska could support the establishment of I. pacificus populations. Future forecasts suggest an increase in suitable habitat with considerable uncertainty for many areas of the state. Repeated introductions of this non-native tick to Alaska increase the likelihood that resident populations could become established.

Identifying the habitat suitability and built-in corridors for Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) movement in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Identifying habitat suitability and potential corridors are important tools for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. We modeled habitat suitability and simulated possible corridors for movement and gene flow among the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) population in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHP). Results indicated that the areas of 13,923 km2 and 21,931 km2 suitable for the Asiatic black bear under current and future scenarios respectively. Under the future scenario, we found an area of 12,657 km2 (57.21%) as increase in suitable habitat (ISHf) and 4649 km2 (33.39%) area as a decrease in current suitable habitat (DSHc). Our model predicted that about >65% (9274 km2) of the current suitable habitat as a climate refugia which is projected from the center to southeast east and northwest of the NHP primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). The attitudinal range of refugia was projected from 688 m to 4483 m with >56% at the elevations between 2001 m to 3000 m. A very small portion of suitable habitats (current suitable habitat = 2.75%, future suitable habitat = 5.11%) were projected under the protected areas. Maps connecting suitable habitats identified different regions delineated as important for the dispersal of Asiatic black bears, which mainly distributed in the PAK and KPK. Our results help informs conservation strategies and management plans for mitigating the impacts of climate change on Asiatic black bears in the NHP.

Seasonal release from competition explains partial migration in European moose

Partial migration, whereby a proportion of a population migrates between distinct seasonal ranges, is common throughout the animal kingdom. However, studies linking existing theoretical models of migration probability, with empirical data are lacking. The competitive release hypothesis for partial migration predicts that due to density‐dependent habitat selection, the proportion of migrants increases as the relative quality and size of the seasonal range increases, but decreases with increasing migration cost and population density. To test this prediction, we developed a quantitative framework to predict the proportion of migrants, using empirical data from 545 individually GPS‐marked moose Alces alces from across Fennoscandia, spanning latitudes of 56° to 68°N. Moose contracted their ranges to common and spatially limited winter areas (typically at lower elevation), but expanded them during summer due to an increase in suitable habitat (at highland ranges). As predicted from our model, a better and larger highland range relative to the lowland range corresponded to a higher proportion of migrants in an area. Quantitative predictions coupling the balance of habitat availability of seasonal ranges with the probability of migrating in a large herbivore is a necessary step towards an enhanced understanding of the mechanisms underlying migration at the population level.

Influence of water temperature and biotic interactions on the distribution of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) in a population stronghold under climate change

Climate warming is expected to have substantial impacts on native trout across the Rocky Mountains, but there is little understanding of how these changes affect future distributions of co-occurring native fishes within population strongholds. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to investigate the role of abiotic (e.g., temperature) and biotic factors (bull trout presence, Salvelinus confluentus) on distributions of westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi; WCT) in the North Fork Flathead River, USA and Canada. The probability of WCT presence increased with stream temperature and decreased with channel gradient and bull trout presence, yet the effect of bull trout was reduced with increasing pool densities. Combining this model with spatially explicit stream temperature projections, we predict a 29% increase in suitable habitat under high emissions through 2075, with gains at mid-elevation sites predicted to exceed bull trout thermal tolerances and high-elevation sites expected to become more thermally suitable for WCT. Our study illustrates the importance of considering abiotic and biotic drivers to assess species response to climate change, helping to guide local-scale climate adaptation and management.

Predicting current and future suitable habitat and productivity for Atlantic populations of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Spain

By combining inventory data and spatially-continuous environmental information, we were able to develop models for Atlantic populations of maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Spain in order to predict suitable habitat and site index at a spatial resolution of 250 × 250 m. Currently available, spatially continuous environmental information was used to make reliable predictions about suitable habitat and forest productivity. To develop raster-based distribution and productivity models for Atlantic populations of maritime pine in Spain to predict current and future suitable habitat and productivity. Occurrence data and site index values were obtained from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory and research plots, respectively. After testing different algorithms, random forest were selected for modelling the relationships between maritime pine occurrence, site index and spatially continuous environmental variables. The overall accuracy of the suitable habitat model was 73%, and climate (mainly thermal properties) and soil physical properties were the most important variables. The site index model explained 60% of the observed variability, and lithological properties were the most important variables. A slight increase in site index (0.46–0.51%) and a large increase in suitable habitat (50–66%) are expected for 2070 under the most pessimistic climate change scenario. The currently available spatial continuous information enables the development of accurate raster data models for predicting suitable habitat and site productivity without the need for fieldwork. Climate change is expected to increase the potentially suitable habitat of Atlantic maritime pine populations in Spain in the coming decades.

Predicted future distribution of the African skimmer in response to a changing climate, land cover and distance from water in the mid‐Zambezi Valley

AbstractClimate models project a hot and dry future for Southern Africa. In this research, Maximum Entropy was used to model the extent to which climate change, land cover and distance from water edges may influence current and future distribution of the African skimmer in the mid‐Zambezi Valley. Global Biodiversity Information Facility data collected between the years 2000–2019 were used to develop the models. Three models were built: one for current distribution and two for future distribution under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 6.0. Results revealed that annual precipitation and distance from water edges were the most important predictors of habitat suitability for the African skimmer under current and future climate. Temperature and land cover were least important in explaining current and future distribution of the species. The RCP 2.6 predicted future decrease in suitable habitat for the African skimmer in the mid‐Zambezi Valley, while RCP 6.0 predicted future increase in suitable habitat for the species. This research conclusively revealed that precipitation and distance from water edges were consistently key predictors of suitable habitat for the African skimmer.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on Papio baboon biogeography: Are widespread, generalist primates ‘safe’?

AbstractAimsTo explore whether wide‐ranging, generalist primates like baboons can be presumed ‘resilient’ in the face of climate change. We identify environmental variables influencing baboons’ current distributions and predict their future potential distributions under different climate change scenarios.LocationAfrica and Arabia.TaxonBaboons, Papio spp.MethodsWe used localities for olive, yellow, Guinea, hamadryas, chacma and Kinda baboons together with high‐resolution data on bioclimatic variables, altitude and vegetation to construct species distribution models (SDMs). These SDMs were run under current and future conditions, with future models based on three General Circulation Models (MIROC‐ESM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2‐ES) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for 2050 and 2070 to explore a range of different possible futures.ResultsAll SDMs produced AUC values >0.916 suggesting excellent overall performance. Altitude was the most important variable influencing Guinea baboon distributions (contributing 41.6%), temperature seasonality for olive and yellow baboons (47.5% and 35.4% respectively), precipitation of the driest month for hamadryas baboons (24.4%), annual mean precipitation for the Kinda baboon (45.1%) and mean temperature of the driest quarter for chacma baboons (41.4%). Chacma and Kinda baboons are predicted to suffer substantial habitat loss, and Guinea baboons may do the same if conditions aridify as climates warm. In contrast, all models for the olive and hamadryas baboons predicted an increase in suitable habitat and only smaller changes were predicted for the yellow baboon.Main ConclusionsTwo or three of six baboon taxa are at risk of significant habitat loss as climates warm despite their apparent ecological flexibility. The chacma and Kinda baboons (both IUCN listed as Least Concern) will be worst affected, followed by the Guinea baboon (Near Threatened) if warming brings aridification. We recommend more focus on biogeographical tools as a means of exploring vulnerabilities in seemingly resilient species.

A new method to estimate habitat potential for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): predicting the influence of dam removal on the Sélune River (France) as a case study

Abstract Maintaining connectivity in aquatic ecosystems is important to ensure adequate ecological functioning. A large dam removal project in the Sélune River (Normandy, France) would reconnect 827 km2 of catchment area to the sea. Only the downstream section of the Selune is currently available to diadromous fish, which migrate between freshwater and the marine environment. In particular, managers focus on the future potential abundance of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, for conservation and fishery purposes. As in stream channel habitat drives carrying capacity of juvenile salmon, salmon abundance is usually inferred from intensive and linear habitat surveys. However, this approach is neither cost-effective for large-scale surveys nor feasible for riverbed sections with low accessibility for measurement with traditional methods, e.g. dam lakes. We used well-defined relationships between gradient, hydrology and channel habitat structure to construct a simple model to estimate potential suitable habitat for juvenile salmon. Using fine-scale habitat data from nearby rivers, we parameterized a linear mixed model to estimate the area of suitable habitat based on simple physical descriptors of river characteristics. We compared our predictions to fine-scale habitat surveys on the upper Sélune. Using only slope and width, our model was able to explain 80% of the variance in suitable habitat. Estimates indicated that dam removal on the Sélune River would generate a threefold increase in suitable habitat for juveniles. This could increase the mean number of adult salmon returning to the river by 1420.9 (s.e. = 1015.5). More generally, this model provides an alternative and cost-effective tool to help better manage salmon populations in rivers impacted by dams.

Hopes and challenges for giant panda conservation under climate change in the Qinling Mountains of China.

One way that climate change will impact animal distributions is by altering habitat suitability and habitat fragmentation. Understanding the impacts of climate change on currently threatened species is of immediate importance because complex conservation planning will be required. Here, we mapped changes to the distribution, suitability, and fragmentation of giant panda habitat under climate change and quantified the direction and elevation of habitat shift and fragmentation patterns. These data were used to develop a series of new conservation strategies for the giant panda. Qinling Mountains, Shaanxi, China. Data from the most recent giant panda census, habitat factors, anthropogenic disturbance, climate variables, and climate predictions for the year 2050 (averaged across four general circulation models) were used to project giant panda habitat in Maxent. Differences in habitat patches were compared between now and 2050. While climate change will cause a 9.1% increase in suitable habitat and 9% reduction in subsuitable habitat by 2050, no significant net variation in the proportion of suitable and subsuitable habitat was found. However, a distinct climate change‐induced habitat shift of 11 km eastward by 2050 is predicted firstly. Climate change will reduce the fragmentation of suitable habitat at high elevations and exacerbate the fragmentation of subsuitable habitat below 1,900 m above sea level. Reduced fragmentation at higher elevations and worsening fragmentation at lower elevations have the potential to cause overcrowding of giant pandas at higher altitudes, further exacerbating habitat shortage in the central Qinling Mountains. The habitat shift to the east due to climate change may provide new areas for giant pandas but poses severe challenges for future conservation.

Efficacy of conservation strategies for endangered oriental white storks (Ciconia boyciana) under climate change in Northeast China

Climate change can lead to habitat loss and degradation, and consequently endangers species in a specific region. Besides addressing the priority areas of species distribution, an urgent consideration is to identify suitable conservation options and map areas according to their effectiveness when planning to conserve a rare species under climate change. Here, we conducted a study to develop potential conservation strategies and assess their effectiveness under different climate scenarios in Sanjiang (“Three rivers” in English) Plain (Amur, Ussuri and the Songhua Rivers) of Northeast China. We used the species distribution software MaxEnt to model current and future habitat distributions of endangered oriental white storks (Ciconia boyciana). Based on field surveys, experts' knowledge and literature findings, we developed the methods to identify conservation strategies. By including additional species presence sites derived from conservation strategies (a presumption of the further analyses) into MaxEnt, we predicted the future habitat distribution under the implementation of different conservation strategies. To estimate the effect of conservation strategies, we compared the differences in the extent of suitable habitat with and without conservation strategies under two different predicted climate change scenarios. The results showed that the suitable habitat of the oriental white stork in the study region dramatically declined by over 80% in the absence of conservation strategies under both scenarios. Predicted suitable habitats with conservation strategies had broader distribution ranges than those without. The strategy of reclaiming cropland back to wetland offers the most impressive effectiveness with a tenfold increase in suitable habitat, followed by the strategy of establishment of nature reserves with six fold and the strategy of artificial bird nest with two fold increase. Our approaches emphasize the effect of integration of knowledge of experts in conjunction with MaxEnt when mapping and assessing the effect of the conservation strategies.

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Incorporating climate change and exotic species into forecasts of riparian forest distribution.

We examined the impact climate change (CC) will have on the availability of climatically suitable habitat for three native and one exotic riparian species. Due to its increasing prevalence in arid regions throughout the western US, we predicted that an exotic species, Tamarix, would have the greatest increase in suitable habitat relative to native counterparts under CC. We used an ecological niche model to predict range shifts of Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, Salix exigua and Tamarix, from present day to 2080s, under five general circulation models and one climate change scenario (A1B). Four major findings emerged. 1) Contrary to our original hypothesis, P. fremontii is projected to have the greatest increase in suitable habitat under CC, followed closely by Tamarix. 2) Of the native species, S. gooddingii and S. exigua showed the greatest loss in predicted suitable habitat due to CC. 3) Nearly 80 percent of future P. fremontii and Salix habitat is predicted to be affected by either CC or Tamarix by the 2080s. 4) By the 2080s, 20 percent of S. gooddingii habitat is projected to be affected by both Tamarix and CC concurrently, followed by S. exigua (19 percent) and P. fremontii (13 percent). In summary, while climate change alone will negatively impact both native willow species, Tamarix is likely to affect a larger portion of all three native species' distributions. We discuss these and other results in the context of prioritizing restoration and conservation efforts to optimize future productivity and biodiversity. As we are accounting for only direct effects of CC and Tamarix on native habitat, we present a possible hierarchy of effects- from the direct to the indirect- and discuss the potential for the indirect to outweigh the direct effects. Our results highlight the need to account for simultaneous challenges in the face of CC.