Identifying the habitat suitability and built-in corridors for Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) movement in the northern highlands of Pakistan

Abstract

Identifying habitat suitability and potential corridors are important tools for biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. We modeled habitat suitability and simulated possible corridors for movement and gene flow among the Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) population in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHP). Results indicated that the areas of 13,923 km2 and 21,931 km2 suitable for the Asiatic black bear under current and future scenarios respectively. Under the future scenario, we found an area of 12,657 km2 (57.21%) as increase in suitable habitat (ISHf) and 4649 km2 (33.39%) area as a decrease in current suitable habitat (DSHc). Our model predicted that about >65% (9274 km2) of the current suitable habitat as a climate refugia which is projected from the center to southeast east and northwest of the NHP primarily in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK). The attitudinal range of refugia was projected from 688 m to 4483 m with >56% at the elevations between 2001 m to 3000 m. A very small portion of suitable habitats (current suitable habitat = 2.75%, future suitable habitat = 5.11%) were projected under the protected areas. Maps connecting suitable habitats identified different regions delineated as important for the dispersal of Asiatic black bears, which mainly distributed in the PAK and KPK. Our results help informs conservation strategies and management plans for mitigating the impacts of climate change on Asiatic black bears in the NHP.