Global Temperature Increase Research Articles

Comparison of hydrogeochemical characteristics of thermokarst lake water in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under active layer freeze–thaw conditions

Abstract With the gradual increase of global temperature, thermokarst lakes are widely developed and become major environmental disasters in the Tundra Plateau which have impacted the stability of the project such as the Qinghai–Tibetan highway. In this study, some typical thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) were selected as the research object. And four samples were taken from different freezing–thawing processes of the lakes in 2019 to analyze the hydrogeochemical process of the thermokarst lake in the context of climate change. Results show that the main hydrogeochemical types of the lake water in the northern part of the study area were HCO3·Cl − Na·Ca·Mg or Cl·HCO3 − Na·Mg, whereas in the central and southern parts were mainly Cl − Na·Mg. The variations of hydrogeochemical concentration in thermokarst lake water are mainly affected by evaporation concentration, rock differentiation, freezing desalination in the active layer, and plant photosynthesis, which are mainly due to temperature changes. Furthermore, the results of the saturation index (SI) show that dolomite and calcite leaching control the hydrogeochemical composition in thermokarst lakes. In addition, the evaporation-to-inflow (E/I) ratios of the lake reach the maximum in the middle and later periods of the active layer thawing. On the contrary, the E/I values of the lakes decrease during the initial thawing or freezing periods of the active layer.

Metabolic and Enzymatic Evaluation of Lentil (Lens culinaris M.) Seedlings under Drought Stress

Background: In the agricultural context, drought is a period of deficient water conditions, resulting in negative effects on crop growth and yield. A continuous increase in global temperature, leading to warmer climatic conditions, is expected to further increase the severity and frequency of drought. Methods: The experiments were carried out during 2018-2019 under laboratory conditions to study the effects of PEG-6000 on seedling growth in eight genotypes of lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.). Result: Our research work evaluated the effect of PEG-6000 induced drought stress on metabolite and enzymatic activity of eight genotypes of lentil (Lens culinaris Medik.) (PL-4, L-4147, L-4594, L-4596 belonging to microsperma subspecies and K-75, L-4076, DPL-15, DPL-62 belonging to macrosperma subspecies). Drought stress significantly increased metabolite content i.e., protein, proline and carbohydrate and enzyme activity i.e., acid phosphatase, invertase in drought tolerant genotypes (PL-4, L-4594, DPL-15 and DPL-62) and reduced amount of these metabolites and enzymes was observed in drought susceptible genotypes (L-4147, L-4596, K-75, L-4076).

PacBio Isoform Sequencing and Illumina RNA Sequencing Provide Novel Insights on Responses to Acute Heat Stress in Apostichopus japonicus Coelomocytes

Significant increases in global sea surface temperatures are expected with climate change and may cause a serious challenge for marine organisms cultured in aquatic environments that are characterized by short and long-term fluctuations in water temperatures. Apostichopus japonicus, a sea cucumber with high nutritional value and pharmacological properties, is an important economic species that is widely raised in aquaculture in China. In recent years, continuous extreme high temperatures (up to 30°C) have occurred frequently in summer leading to mass mortality of sea cucumbers cultured in semi-open shallow regions seriously restricting the sustainable development of sea cucumber aquaculture. In the present study, we combined RNA-seq and PacBio single-molecular real-time (SMRT) sequencing technology to unveil the potential mechanisms of response to acute heat stress in A. japonicus coelomocytes. A total of 1,375 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified in a comparison of control and 48 h heat stress (HS) groups. Pathway enrichment analysis indicated that nine important pathways induced by HS were significantly enriched (q-value < 0.05) and mostly fell into four classes: folding, sorting, and degradation, immune and infectious diseases, signal transduction, and post-transcriptional regulation. Among them, all 41 genes connected with protein processing in endoplasmic reticulum were significantly up-regulated, and 12 of these were selected and validated via qPCR. Furthermore, changes in alternative splicing (AS) were also identified in sea cucumbers following HS. A total of 1,224 and 1,251 differential alternative splicing (DAS) events were identified using splice junction counts (JC only) and reads on target and junction counts (JCEC) as the input for rMATS in CO-HS comparison. We further found that the RNA splicing-related genes were enriched in the spliceosome pathway and showed DAS in control versus heat-stressed animals. In particular, we compared and confirmed that the hsfs1 gene, the master regulator of the heat shock response, showed differentially spliced exons in response to HS. This is the first comprehensive study showing that transcriptional and post-transcriptional (AS) controls are involved in the acute heat stress response of sea cucumber coelomocytes and provides novel insights into the molecular mechanisms of echinoderm adaptation to environmental stress.

Good practice policies to bridge the emissions gap in key countries

One key aspect of the Paris Agreement is the goal to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C by the end of the century. To achieve the Paris Agreement goals, countries need to submit, and periodically update, their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Recent studies show that NDCs and currently implemented national policies are not sufficient to cover the ambition level of the temperature limit agreed upon in the Paris Agreement, meaning that we need to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe. This paper explores the generalization of previously adopted good practice policies (GPPs) to bridge the emissions gap between current policies, NDCs ambitions and a well below 2 °C world, facilitating the creation of a bridge trajectory in key major-emitting countries. These GPPs are implemented in eleven well-established national Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union (EU), India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and the United States, that provide least-cost, low-carbon scenarios up to 2050. Results show that GPPs can play an important role in each region, with energy supply policies appearing as one of the biggest contributors to the reduction of carbon emissions. However, GPPs by themselves are not enough to close the emission gap, and as such more will be needed in these economies to collectively increase climate action to stabilize global warming at levels considered safe.

Achieving a Carbon Neutral Future through Advanced Functional Materials and Technologies

Abstract Current greenhouse gas emissions suggest that keeping global temperature increase below 1.5 degrees, as espoused in the Paris Agreements will be challenging, and to do so, the achievement of carbon neutrality is of utmost importance. It is also clear that no single solution can meet the carbon neutral challenge, so it is essential for scientific research to cover a broad range of technologies and initiatives which will enable the realization of a carbon free energy system. This study details the broad, yet targeted research themes being pioneered within the International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research (I2CNER). These approaches include hydrogen materials, bio-mimetic catalysts, electrochemistry, thermal energy and absorption, carbon capture, storage and management and refrigerants. Here we outline the state of the art for this suite of technologies and detail how their deployment, alongside prudent energy policy implementation can engender a carbon neutral Japan by 2050. Recognizing that just as no single technological solution will engender carbon neutrality, no single nation can expect to achieve this goal alone. This study represents a recognition of conducive international policy agendas and is representative of interdisciplinary, international collaboration.

Physiological responses of Triplaris gardneriana Wedd. seedlings (Polygonaceae) under intermittent drought

Triplaris gardneriana Wedd is a deciduous riparian tree occurring in areas with different climatic conditions in Brazil, from the rainforest to the tropical dry forest. An increase in global temperature and drought events can change the growth pattern and establishment of the species. To evaluate the effects of intermittent drought on the growth of T. gardneriana seedlings, an experiment was performed using seedlings with one month old subjected to three water treatments (daily irrigation as control, and intermittent drought through cycles of water suppression of seven (S7) and 14 days-intervals (S14) between watering. Growth, biomass production and partitioning, relative water content (RWC), the accumulation of organic solutes, protoplasmic integrity and phenotypic plasticity index (PPI) were evaluated for a better understanding about its drought tolerance level. Intermittent drought severely affected plants growth in S14 plants, showing lower plant height, number of leaves, leaf area, and dry biomass. RWC was reduced, while carbohydrates and proline contents increased in response to drought stress. Protoplasmic damage increased electrolyte leakage in plants subjected to severe stress. However, T. garderiana demonstrated moderate tolerance to water deficit. The plastic changes observed were more physiological than morphological. Therefore, T. gardneriana seems to be a moderately tolerant species to intermittent drought.

Observing diatom diversity and community composition along environmental gradients in subarctic mountain ponds

Abstract Cold subarctic pond ecosystems will be threatened due to the increase in global temperatures. Therefore, it is important to gain more knowledge on how their biota may respond to global warming. The aim of this research was to illustrate the variability in diatom species richness and community composition along environmental gradients in northernmost Finland and Norway and reveal the variables most strongly associated with diatom biodiversity. We also compared diatom biodiversity among different biotope types and placed emphasis on the distribution of rare diatom taxa. A total of 100 subarctic ponds from the Finnish and Norwegian Lapland covering an elevational gradient of 8–887 m above sea level were sampled. A generalised linear model and hierarchical partitioning were used to identify variables associated with diatom species richness. To identify variables associated with diatom community composition, a non‐metric multidimensional scaling ordination was performed. Finally, a principal component analysis and permutational multivariate analysis of variance were used for the investigation of environmental and biotic differences among biotope types. Water pH, aluminium concentration, and air temperature best explained the variation in species richness and community composition. Diatom species richness and community composition did not differ among the biotope types, but environmental variables in pine forests differed significantly from other biotope types. Many diatom species occupied the entire elevational gradient, while rare taxa seemed to appear at the ends of the elevational gradient as well around the mid‐elevational zone. We found that elevation was not sufficient to explain the variation in diatom species richness and community composition, but diatom biodiversity was shaped by a variety of local‐scale environmental variables, some of which are in turn correlated with elevation. Our findings suggest that local abiotic factors and especially water chemistry are important factors in describing the variability in diatom community composition and species richness in subarctic ponds. It seems that the lowest and the highest elevations provide suitable habitats for rare diatom taxa that have unique environmental preferences but some of the rare taxa were also constrained to mid elevations. Our study provides new insights into the role of local abiotic variables in shaping subarctic mountain pond biodiversity. We urge researchers not only to study elevational gradients per se in mountain areas, but also pay special attention to environmental covariates that may play a notable role in maintaining freshwater biodiversity in the subarctic.

Assessing the potential for unaccounted emissions from bioenergy and the implications for forests: The United States and global

AbstractDevelopment of the bioenergy sector is being actively pursued in many countries as a means to reduce climate change and fulfill international climate agreements such as the Paris Agreement. Although biomass for energy production (especially wood pellets) can replace carbon‐intensive fossil fuels, its net greenhouse gas impact varies, and the production of wood pellets can also lead to intensification in forest harvests and reduction of forest carbon stocks. Additionally, under specific conditions, emissions associated with imported biomass feedstocks may be omitted from national accounts, due to incompatibilities in accounting approaches. We assessed the risks and potential scale of emissions omitted from accounts (EOA) among key trading regions, focusing on the demand for wood pellets under different levels of climate mitigation targets. Our results suggest that the global production of wood pellets would grow from 38.9 to 120 Mton/year between 2019 and 2050 in a scenario that limits global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre‐industrial levels. A large portion of this occurs in North America (36.8 Mton/year by 2050), Europe (47.6 Mton/year by 2050), and Asia (23.3 Mton/year by 2050). We estimate that in a 1.5°C scenario, global EOA associated with international trade of wood pellets has the potential to reach 23.81 MtCO2eq/year by 2030 and 69.52 MtCO2eq/year in 2050. Emissions resulting from European biomass energy production, based on wood pellet imports from the United States, may reach 11.68 MtCO2eq/year by 2030 and 33.57 MtCO2eq/year in 2050. The production of wood pellet feedstocks may also present a substantial carbon price arbitrage opportunity for bioenergy producers through a conjunction of two distinct GHG accounting rules. If this opportunity is realized, it could accelerate the growth of the bioenergy industry to levels that harm forests’ function as a carbon sink and omit actual emissions in national and global accounting frameworks.

Validation of Rainfall Reanalysis Data to Explore Changes in Oldeman Agricultural Climate Patterns Due to Variability of Surface Temperature Anomalies with Time Series Analysis Techniques (Case Study of Dumai City for 30 Years Period)

Indonesia is a country with a population that still uses the agricultural sector as the highest livelihood. The Central Statistics Agency said 38.61% were in this sector. However, the issue of climate change caused by an increase in global temperature has begun to impact the agricultural sector in several regions. Therefore, this study aims to understand the effect of increasing surface temperature anomaly on the Oldeman climate pattern in Dumai City. The data used are in-situ observation rainfall data for 1981 - 2010, rainfall reanalysis data for 1991 - 2020, surface temperature anomaly data for 1991 - 2020. The data validation methods used are spearman correlation and Kendall-tau methods. The approach to explore changes in the Oldeman climate pattern uses time series analysis techniques such as ACF, PACF, and moving average of 1 year lag-time with a period of 10 years. The rainfall data validation test result show that the average spatial correlation value is 0.86. It can be used to explore time-series climate data in 3 locations in Dumai. As a result, time series analysis found a positive trend in rainfall data significantly along with the temperature anomaly but the Oldeman's climate pattern analysis in Dumai is monitored as stable in type B1. Overall, it is concluded that the change in the surface temperature anomaly variability and trend as a manifestation of climate change in Dumai has not impacted in the Oldeman agricultural climate patterns. Keywords: Climate Change, Oldeman, Time Series, Rainfall, Temperature

Asphalt binder selection for future Canadian climatic conditions using various pavement temperature prediction models

Over the past 20 years, climate scientists have predicted that anthropogenic climate change would lead to an increase in global temperatures. In addition, the trends were predicted to further aggravate in the near future. Recent studies stated that this climate change has had a significant impact on pavement performance. As asphalt binder is susceptible to changes in temperature, it is necessary to understand the influence of climate change on asphalt binder grade selections. Therefore, the aim of this study is to estimate the new asphalt binder grades for Canada using the projected climate data. To achieve this, average seven-day maximum pavement temperature and a minimum pavement temperature were determined using the three different pavement temperature prediction models: SHRP, LTPP and EICM to estimate the asphalt binder (PG XX – YY). This paper presents a summary of revised asphalt binder grades for 28 different locations across Canada.

Against Lockdowns for the Climate and for a Theology of a Living Earth

There is an eerie convergence in academic and media commentary between ‘public health’ policies in the time of the Covid-19 pandemic and policies to address climate change. Bruno Latour argues that unprecedented state control and surveillance of citizens in their homes, meetings and movements, are needed to address climate change. This claim rests on two assumptions. The first is that reducing carbon emissions is the way to address the modest increase in global temperatures since 1850 despite the failure of this approach to impact either atmospheric carbon or global warming. The second is that forcibly destroying the creative agencies of billions of people is good for human health and good for the health of the planet. Against the suppression of the agency of ordinary people in Covid-19 as a ‘solution’ to climate change I argue that ecological and climate crises can only be turned around when people, and other creaturely beings, recover their agency as co-creators and co-curators of their habitats and the cultural and material resources they need for human flourishing. Evidence from many domains indicates that it is the loss of such agency by ordinary people, and by other creatures, which is the key driver of ecosystem destruction. Its recovery involves restraining the industrial agencies which continue to wreck Gaia.

Big Data Analytics Using Swarm-Based Long Short-Term Memory for Temperature Forecasting

In the past few decades, climatic changes led by environmental pollution, the emittance of greenhouse gases, and the emergence of brown energy utilization have led to global warming. Global warming increases the Earth's temperature, thereby causing severe effects on human and environmental conditions and threatening the livelihoods of millions of people. Global warming issues are the increase in global temperatures that lead to heat strokes and high-temperature-related diseases during the summer, causing the untimely death of thousands of people. To forecast weather conditions, researchers have utilized machine learning algorithms, such as autoregressive integrated moving average, ensemble learning, and long short-term memory network. These techniques have been widely used for the prediction of temperature. In this paper, we present a swarm-based approach called Cauchy particle swarm optimization (CPSO) to find the hyperparameters of the long short-term memory (LSTM) network. The hyperparameters were determined by minimizing the LSTM validation mean square error rate. The optimized hyperparameters of the LSTM were used to forecast the temperature of Chennai City. The proposed CPSO-LSTM model was tested on the openly available 25-year Chennai temperature dataset. The experimental evaluation on MATLABR2020a analyzed the root mean square error rate and mean absolute error to evaluate the forecasted output. The proposed CPSO-LSTM outperforms the traditional LSTM algorithm by reducing its computational time to 25 min under 200 epochs and 150 hidden neurons during training. The proposed hyperparameter-based LSTM can predict the temperature accurately by having a root mean square error (RMSE) value of 0.250 compared with the traditional LSTM of 0.35 RMSE.

Worrying about Climate Change

It is becoming clear that Climate Change is getting severe. It was reported that the improved ocean heat measurements have a rate of warming upwards from 4 to 5 Hiroshima bombs liberated heat per second or 388,800 per day. It was reported also that our climate has accumulated the equivalent of a total of more than 2.8 billion Hiroshima bombs’ worth of heat since 1998. Despite this global concern about the effect of global change on environment, it is believed that the problem is much more severe and with greater impact on all facets of life. The effect of Climate Change, especially with a 1℃ increase in global temperature (from 14℃ to 15℃ ) is equivalent to the heat liberated from explosion of about 300 million Hiroshima of atomic bomb. This is why this CoP 26 becomes more serious and had targeted year 2060 as a year of zero CO2 emission. This paper discusses the impact of climate change on ten sectors; water, water desalination, energy, renewable energy supply, health, society, agriculture, economy, industry, and built environment.

РОЗВИТОК ЗЕЛЕНОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ У НАПРЯМКУ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ВЕНЧУРНИХ СТРУКТУР ДЛЯ РИНКУ ЕЛЕКТРОМОБІЛІВ

The climate crisis, along with the loss of biodiversity, is the biggest challenge the world is facing. The increase in global average temperatures has a significant impact on the climate, so the EU countries strive to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services, to become a world leader in the conservation and restoration of nature in the next decade. In the environmental document "EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives" (COM (2020) 380 final), the European Commission appealed to the European Parliament and intergovernmental institutions of the European Union to achieve a number of global goals set by the European Green Deal and the UN Framework Convention on biodiversity protection. In the development of the green economy, Ukraine has obligations regarding biodiversity within the framework of the Association Agreement with the European Union. The need to use environmentally friendly transport in Ukraine is determined by the global trends of transition to electric vehicles and the current ecological situation in the country. According to World Health Organization, Ukraine ranks first in the world in terms of air pollution deaths per 100,000 people. The article researched, analyzed and substantiated the relevance of the development of the "green" economy in Ukraine in the direction of the functioning of venture structures for the electric car market. The main objectives of the biodiversity strategy of the European Union are highlighted. The task and purpose of the "green" economy as an important component of the social, economic and ecological development of the state is presented. The goals of the European Green Course and the European Climate Pact were studied, and the main obligations of Ukraine were analyzed. Features of the functioning of venture structures, such as business incubators and business accelerators, are presented, and their important role in the development of startups is investigated. The role and significance of electric vehicles as environmentally friendly transport is defined. The role of venture capital structures as accelerators of Ukraine's development has been studied.

АЕРОЗОЛІ ГЕОІНЖЕНЕРІЇ

The unambiguous indicators of climate change caused by the industrialization of society are becoming increasingly apparent. Urgent short-term transformations in energy and transport systems around the world are needed to significantly reduce carbon emissions. The scale of the transformation, the lack of effective public response, and the inertia of changes in energy infrastructure are prompting other strategies to mitigate some of the effects of global warming. If global warming continues to rise, it could lead to serious risks of large-scale, irreversible failure in the climate system. Projections of such levels of warming are within the XXI century. As efforts to achieve ambitious emission reduction targets have so far failed, options for mitigating climate change or adapting to climate change have recently been seriously considered. Limiting global warming by 2° C above pre-industrial levels in the 21st century. Avoids dangerous human interference in the climate system. If the 2° C mark is exceeded, the effects of climate change can no longer be controlled. Currently, the increase in average global surface temperature is already about 1.0° C above pre-industrial values. It is estimated that 0.5° C is already in the climate system, especially in the oceans, and has not yet affected the planet’s surface air temperature. However, there are currently no signs of any radical containment of global warming. On the contrary, the concentration of carbon dioxide, arguably the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, continues to rise steadily. Given this situation, it is not only the scientific community that is actively discussing artificial interventions in the climate system to limit global warming, which is known as climate geoengineering.

The long road to bloom in conifers.

More than 600 species of conifers (phylum Pinophyta) serve as the backbone of the Earth's terrestrial plant community and play key roles in global carbon and water cycles. Although coniferous forests account for a large fraction of global wood production, their productivity relies largely on the use of genetically improved seeds. However, acquisition of such seeds requires recurrent selection and testing of genetically superior parent trees, eventually followed by the establishment of a seed orchard to produce the improved seeds. The breeding cycle for obtaining the next generation of genetically improved seeds can be significantly lengthened when a target species has a long juvenile period. Therefore, development of methods for diminishing the juvenile phase is a cost-effective strategy for shortening breeding cycle in conifers. The molecular regulatory programs associated with the reproductive transition and annual reproductive cycle of conifers are modulated by environmental cues and endogenous developmental signals. Mounting evidence indicates that an increase in global average temperature seriously threatens plant productivity, but how conifers respond to the ever-changing natural environment has yet to be fully characterized. With the breakthrough of assembling and annotating the giant genome of conifers, identification of key components in the regulatory cascades that control the vegetative to reproductive transition is imminent. However, comparison of the signaling pathways that control the reproductive transition in conifers and the floral transition in Arabidopsis has revealed many differences. Therefore, a more complete understanding of the underlying regulatory mechanisms that control the conifer reproductive transition is of paramount importance. Here, we review our current understanding of the molecular basis for reproductive regulation, highlight recent discoveries, and review new approaches for molecular research on conifers.

Climate Changes between International Conventions or Protocols and Scientific Impacts

Climate change and related challenges are affecting all over the world, particularly, African's 2030 path of sustainable development, especially in the desert regions, which include the most vulnerable and vulnerable systems. Climate changes are a natural phenomenon that occurs every several millennia, but increased last years as a result of human activity. It transcends the geographical boundaries of countries and poses a global threat. The steady increase in global surface air temperatures has been confirmed (0.3 and 0.6 oc) over the past 100 years. Any disruption of the Earth's ecosystem in general, increasing average atmospheric temperature, melting of the poles, inundation of island States and deltas, disruption of rainfall patterns, negative impacts on agricultural land productivity, water needs, public health and transmission of epidemic diseases. This review light on scientific concept of climate changes, climate change risks, climate worming and human footprint. Moreover, this review aims to discuss the historical development of international agreements, treaties and protocols that discussed addressing climate change and its current and future effects. Moreover, this review aims to discuss the historical development of international agreements, treaties and protocols that discussed addressing climate change and its current and future effects. Briefly, it summarizes what will happen to the blue planet if the reasons of climate changes continue?

The 1.5°C climate and energy scenarios: impacts on economic growth

Abstract In the context of calls for ‘de-growth’ (reduction in gross domestic product, [GDP]) in developed countries for them to be able to reduce emissions to ‘net zero’ in time for the temperature target in the Paris Agreement to be met, this article explores the various impacts on economic growth in the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit the average global temperature increase in 2100 to 1.5°C. It finds that the impacts are generally small and that in no case is ‘degrowth’ required, although the requirements for the rate and nature of technological developments are challenging. The article then reports on a modelling exercise that investigates in more detail the economic dynamics of achieving the 1.5°C target. It finds that, as with the IPCC scenarios, and assuming the feasibility of at-scale deployment of carbon capture and negative emission technologies, economic growth continues throughout this century, with a major contribution coming from the investment required to decarbonise the energy system.

GLOBAL WARMING AND PAKISTAN: LOCAL RESPONSE TO A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

GLOBAL WARMING AND PAKISTAN: LOCAL RESPONSE TO A GLOBAL CHALLENGE

ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE AND EXPECTED CHANGES IN AGRO-CLIMATIC RESOURCES OF THE GUBA-KHACHMAZ ECONOMIC REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN

The article discusses some issues of assessing the current state and expected changes in agro-climatic resources of the Guba-Khachmaz economic region. Research methods are selected and substantiated. The issues of interpretation of agro-climatic information are considered to determine modern "norms" of agro-climatic indicators and assess the impact of regional climate change on these resources. To assess the impact of climate change on agroclimatic resources, such indicators as the date of the transition of the average daily air temperature above 10 °C in the spring and below 10 °C in the fall, the length of the warm period, the sum of active air temperatures above 10 °C, the sum of precipitation and the hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninov for the warm season. For example, it is shown that with the expected increase in air temperature by 2 °C, the beginning of the warm period will begin in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones by 8-10 days, and in the highlands by 22 days earlier than in the modern period. In autumn, the end of the warm period is expected 11-15 days later; the length of the warm period is expected to increase by 20-23 days in the lowland, foothill and mid-mountain zones and by 37 days in the high-mountain zone. It is also expected that the sum of active temperatures will increase by 581-665 °C for the warm period. It was revealed that the most susceptible to the influence of an increase in global air temperature by 2 °C will be medium and high mountain zones. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 4 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 1st group of drought with height will increase from 6 % to 33 %, the frequency of occurrence of the 2-nd group will change from -14 % to + 50 %, and the first group will decrease by 13-57 %. With an increase in air temperature in the future by 2 °C and a decrease in atmospheric precipitation by 20 %, the frequency of occurrence of various groups of drought will be similar to the previous variant. Also, an assessment was made of possible changes in the frequency of drought with different intensities.