Increase In Average Annual Temperature Research Articles

Relative contributions of microbial and infrastructure heat at a crude oil-contaminated site

Biodegradation of contaminants can increase the temperature in the subsurface due to heat generated from exothermic reactions, making temperature observations a potentially low-cost approach for determining microbial activity. For this technique to gain more widespread acceptance, it is necessary to better understand all the factors affecting the measured temperatures. Biodegradation has been occurring at a crude oil-contaminated site near Bemidji, Minnesota for 39 years, creating a quasi-steady-state plume of contaminants and degradation products. A model of subsurface heat generation and transport helps elucidate the contribution of microbial and infrastructure heating to observed temperature increases at this site. We created a steady-state, two-dimensional, heat transport model using previous-published parameter values for physical, chemical and biodegradation properties. Simulated temperature distributions closely match the observed average annual temperatures measured in the contaminated area at the site within less than 0.2 °C in the unsaturated zone and 0.4 °C in the saturated zone. The model results confirm that the observed subsurface heat from microbial activity is due primarily to methane oxidation in the unsaturated zone resulting in a 3.6 °C increase in average annual temperature. Another important source of subsurface heat is from the active, crude-oil pipelines crossing the site. The pipelines impact temperatures for a distance of 200 m and contribute half the heat. Model results show that not accounting for the heat from the pipelines leads to overestimating the degradation rates by a factor of 1.7, demonstrating the importance of identifying and quantifying all heat sources. The model results also highlighted a zone where previously unknown microbial activity is occurring at the site.

Climatic Changes as a Precondition of Soil Erosion Danger of Zaporizhia Region

Purpose. To reveal changes of climatic conditions in the region of Zaporizhia, which directly affect the development of soil erosion processes of the region Methods. System analysis. Results. It has been established that the process of climate warming is accompanied with an increase in average annual temperatures during the period of 2005-2017 by 1.7 ° С on the average. The general positive trend also indicates a significant increase in the sum of active temperatures above + 15 ° С. The average long-term increase in the sum of positive temperatures has been around 40 ° C per year according to the data of the meteorological observing station of Melitopol; at the same time, within the period of 2008-2012 there was a double growth of this indicator - up to 80 ° C per year. The change of wind circulation with the prevalence of western component leads to an overall increase in precipitation up to 500.0 mm on the average (the meteorological station of Melitopol). At the same time, the amount of rainfall is being redistributed towards the winter season, which causes an increase in dryness during the vegetation season. Both the increase in the average annual temperature and the redistribution of precipitation between seasons is accompanied with an increase in the frequency of droughts, especially from the second half of the twentieth century until the present time. In addition, an increase in the amount of rainfall in the winter period and the exposure of agricultural fields is followed with accelerated water erosion of the soil, with the deflation processes being activated in early spring. Conclusions. It has been revealed that changes in the climatic conditions, which are occurring on the territory of the region of Zaporizhia, are accompanied with an average long-term increase in the sum of positive temperatures, an increase in the average annual temperature of the air and a decrease in the wind-circulatory processes.The change in climatic conditions has caused the activation of water and wind erosion. Wind erosion is common on the surface adjacent to the Azov Sea coast, as well as on the surface of the Pryazovia Highlands and windward slopes. Water erosion processes are confined to short and steep slopes, which essentially depend on the amount of precipitation and soil properties.

Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Montenegro, 2004-14.

From 2004 to 2014, 106 cases of Human haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were notified in Montenegro, with a peak in 2014. Most of the cases occurred in summer, in the North-east and Central Montenegro, a hilly/mountainous area, that provides suitable habitats for the main rodent carriers. Cases were mainly males (71) and exposures were often working outdoor or spending time visiting mountains and lakes. Incidence correlated with average annual temperature increase and average annual rainfalls decrease, but not with land cover. Environment and climate effects on HFRS in Montenegro need further investigation to get insight into future trends.

Impact of Soil Warming on the Plant Metabolome of Icelandic Grasslands.

Climate change is stronger at high than at temperate and tropical latitudes. The natural geothermal conditions in southern Iceland provide an opportunity to study the impact of warming on plants, because of the geothermal bedrock channels that induce stable gradients of soil temperature. We studied two valleys, one where such gradients have been present for centuries (long-term treatment), and another where new gradients were created in 2008 after a shallow crustal earthquake (short-term treatment). We studied the impact of soil warming (0 to +15 °C) on the foliar metabolomes of two common plant species of high northern latitudes: Agrostis capillaris, a monocotyledon grass; and Ranunculus acris, a dicotyledonous herb, and evaluated the dependence of shifts in their metabolomes on the length of the warming treatment. The two species responded differently to warming, depending on the length of exposure. The grass metabolome clearly shifted at the site of long-term warming, but the herb metabolome did not. The main up-regulated compounds at the highest temperatures at the long-term site were saccharides and amino acids, both involved in heat-shock metabolic pathways. Moreover, some secondary metabolites, such as phenolic acids and terpenes, associated with a wide array of stresses, were also up-regulated. Most current climatic models predict an increase in annual average temperature between 2–8 °C over land masses in the Arctic towards the end of this century. The metabolomes of A. capillaris and R. acris shifted abruptly and nonlinearly to soil warming >5 °C above the control temperature for the coming decades. These results thus suggest that a slight warming increase may not imply substantial changes in plant function, but if the temperature rises more than 5 °C, warming may end up triggering metabolic pathways associated with heat stress in some plant species currently dominant in this region.

English

This study presents an application of the Ricardian approach to explore the impact of climate change on farmland values in Nepal. The Ricardian approach is estimated using a panel fixed effects model, and the outcome is compared against two separate models that account for spatial correlation: a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model; and a spatial error model (SEM). The findings suggest that Nepalese farmlands are sensitive to climate change, and this result was consistent in both the non-spatial and the spatial frameworks. The inclusion of the spatial effects, however, revealed the presence of positive spatial autocorrelation and produced conservative estimates of climate change impacts. The net effect of annual increases in average temperature was negative; while the net effect of higher annual average precipitation was a positive outcome on farmland values. In particular, we found that the marginal effect of every degree increase in average annual temperature was Rs.180 /hectare ($1.80) reduction in farmland values. Likewise, for rainfall, it was found that 1 mm increase in average annual rainfall would positively affect farmland value by Rs.225/hectare ($2.25). Finally, the study findings suggested that extreme weather events could also impact the agricultural productivity and the farmland values in Nepal.   Key words: Climate change, ricardian approach, spatial panel data analysis, Nepalese agriculture, environmental valuation.

Effects of climate variation and water levels on reservoir recreation

ABSTRACTBoyer TA, Melstrom RT, Sanders LD. 2017. Effects of climate variation and water levels on reservoir recreation. Lake Reserve Manage. 00:1–11.We combined information on valuation, visitation, and time-varying site quality to measure the effects of climate variation and reservoir water levels on recreational demand at Fort Cobb Reservoir, Oklahoma. A time series model of monthly visitation was estimated to measure the effect of water levels, rainfall, wind speed, and air temperature fluctuations on visitation to the reservoir. The results provide no evidence that visitation is affected by rainfall and wind speed but strong evidence that visitation is affected by water levels and air temperature, even after controlling for seasonality in demand. The results suggest annual reservoir visitation will increase by 2.3% for a 0.5 C (1 F) increase in average annual temperature, but that this increase will vary depending on the month and baseline temperatures; managers can expect an increase of 3.5% to occur in October through May, with essentially no increase in June through September. Visitation increases due to temperatures could potentially be offset with slight changes in water levels away from normal pool heights, however. To illustrate the potential use of these predictions in benefit and damage assessments of environmental change, a nonmarket valuation method was employed to value recreational trips to the reservoir. The results indicate a trip is worth about $60 per person. With explicit values for recreation, lake and reservoir managers may find it easier to gauge the economic benefits of managing lake levels for nonconsumptive uses.

Farmland shift due to climate warming and impacts on temporal-spatial distributions of water resources in a middle-high latitude agricultural watershed

Climate warming increases the active accumulated temperature (AAT) of crops and may change crop structures and patterns. Climate warming along with farmland responses has combined consequences for watershed hydrological indicators, which would be expected to exhibit different temporal-spatial patterns. In our study we investigate the combined impacts of increased temperature and shifted farmland on the hydrological features in middle-high latitude agricultural watersheds. The AAT responses in latitudinal and altitudinal directions were revealed by using an agro-climate model under different warming scenarios (△T=0.1°C is applied to the interval from 0.7°C to 1.5°C). Then, the spatial distributions of dryland shifting to paddy land were determined considering △AAT. For every 1°C increase in average annual temperature, the boundary for planting paddy fields will shift northward by approximately 160km and upward in the altitudinal direction by 180m. Increasing temperature values and the new crop distributions were imported into the SWAT model, which quantified the temporal (monthly and yearly) and spatial changes of runoff and actual evapotranspiration (ET). Annual runoff decreased at a rate of 9.5mm/°C, and annual ET increased at a rate of 7mm/°C under climate warming combined with shifted farmlands. Combined impacts increased runoff in February, March and September, and decreased runoff from April to July. ET increased from March to July and decreased in August and September. The comparison of spatial water resource responses indicated that lower altitude and lower latitude areas experienced larger changes in runoff and ET than was the case for higher altitude and higher latitude areas.

Controls on permafrost thaw in a coupled groundwater-flow and heat-transport system: Iqaluit Airport, Nunavut, Canada

Numerical simulations of groundwater flow and heat transport are used to provide insight into the interaction between shallow groundwater flow and thermal dynamics related to permafrost thaw and thaw settlement at the Iqaluit Airport taxiway, Nunavut, Canada. A conceptual model is first developed for the site and a corresponding two-dimensional numerical model is calibrated to the observed ground temperatures. Future climate-warming impacts on the thermal regime and flow system are then simulated based on climate scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Under climate warming, surface snow cover is identified as the leading factor affecting permafrost degradation, including its role in increasing the sensitivity of permafrost degradation to changes in various hydrogeological factors. In this case, advective heat transport plays a relatively minor, but non-negligible, role compared to conductive heat transport, due to the significant extent of low-permeability soil close to surface. Conductive heat transport, which is strongly affected by the surface snow layer, controls the release of unfrozen water and the depth of the active layer as well as the magnitude of thaw settlement and frost heave. Under the warmest climate-warming scenario with an average annual temperature increase of 3.23 °C for the period of 2011–2100, the simulations suggest that the maximum depth of the active layer will increase from 2 m in 2012 to 8.8 m in 2100 and, over the same time period, thaw settlement along the airport taxiway will increase from 0.11 m to at least 0.17 m.

THE CONTROL OF CYDIA POMONELLA L. IN APPLE ORCHARDS OF FOREST STEPPE OF UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

The present studies were conducted in 20 13 in three apple orchards differing from each other by the age, the apple varieties and system of chemical control of pests. Their purpose was to monitor codling moth ( Cydia pomonella L.) in different types of apple orchards using pheromone traps, finding out the relation between the occurrence of moths and the sum of effective temperatures as well as determining the number of diapausing caterpillars of this species with the use of bands of corrugated paper. The analysis of male flight of codling moth on the basis of pheromone traps makes it possible to state the occurrence of three generations. Increase of average annual temperature is directly influence on generation number of codling moth in Ukraine.

Variations in climatic and hydrological parameters in the Selenga River basin in the Russian Federation

The variations in average annual surface air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the Selenga River basin (within Russia) are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the considerable increase in average annual temperature of surface air layers occurred in the 1980s-1990s. The decrease in peak water discharge in the rivers and the increase in the frequency of low-water periods were revealed in the forest-steppe and steppe zones of the Selenga River basin in 2001-2010. In the southwestern mountain regions (the Dzhida River basin) the river runoff increased during that period.

VULNERABILIDADE DA VEGETAÇÃO DE CAMPOS DE ALTITUDE ÀS MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS

Many studies have established that mountains environments have experienced a larger effect of climate change than lower altitude areas. Despite the few studies realized, the tropical mountains are more vulnerable, which directly affect its biodiversity. However, no study aiming to investigate the vulnerability of campos de altitude in a climate change scenario was realized until today. With this goal in mind, we conduct a review in order to respond three questions: 1) what are the climate change forecasts for southeast campos de altitude? 2) Based in another studies about climate change and mountains, how the campos de altitude vegetation will be affected in a climate change scenario? 3) Which factors make the campos de altitude vegetation vulnerable in that scenario? According to GCM HadGEM2-ES, a significant increase in annual average temperature and less expressive increase in annual precipitation are expected for campos de altitude sites in southeast Brazil. Changes in climatic seasonality will be also subtle. No papers about the effects of climate change in campos de altitude vegetation were found. However, many studies have pointed out a probable vulnerability of this kind of vegetation to climate change. Vulnerability of campos de altitude vegetation is related to its restricted and disjoint geographical distribution, their restricted altitudinal range, the vegetation susceptibility to fires and high level of endemism. However, ecological studies about this theme are still scarce. Hence, lack of knowledge hinder predictability about the future response of campos de altitude vegetation to climate change. We suggest a complementary approach between manipulative and natural experiments in order to evaluate the effects of anthropic activities for vegetation responses and functio­nal ecology of species. Additionally, we must detangle the factors that affect the distribution and abundance of endemic species and the relative contribution of the risk factors for vegetation probably decline under future climate change scenario.

Trends in the extent of damages from natural hazards in forests in Serbia and the influence of temperature and precipitation

In terms of the visible effects of climate change, in Serbia as well as in other countries is present an increase of average annual temperature, reduced amount of precipitation, the occurrence of floods, droughts, forest fires and ice breakage. The aim of the research is to determine the pattern of the trends in the extent of damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia, their share in the total forest damage and the impact of temperature and precipitation on the extent of damage from natural hazards in the forests during the researched period. A modelling method was used as a basic scientific method, with an application of trend, regression and correlation analysis, methods of reasoning (abstraction and concretization, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, etc.), along with other methods and techniques necessary for obtaining all needed elements (processes, absolute growth, growth rate, etc.). Regardless of the lack of significance in all models, the research results indicate that the damages from natural hazards in the forests in Serbia are expanding, with increased share in total forest damages, which might be related to significantly lower temperatures and higher rainfall (snow-breaks, snow uprooting, ice-breaks, ice uprooting, floods, etc.).

3D simulation of boreal forests: structure and dynamics in complex terrain and in a changing climate

To understand how the Siberian boreal forests may respond to near-future climate change, we employed a modeling approach and examined thresholds for significant and irreversible changes in forest structure and composition that are likely to be reached by mid-21st century. We applied the new spatially-explicit gap-dynamics model SIBBORK toward the understanding of how transition zones, namely treelines, which are notoriously undersampled and difficult to model, may change in the near future. We found that a 2 °C change in annual average air temperature significantly altered the structure, composition, and productivity of boreal forests stands both in the northern and the southern treeline ecotones. Treeline migration occurs at smaller temperature changes. Based on the current (1990–2014) observed warming trends, a 2 °C increase in annual average temperature compared to historical climate (1961–1990) is likely to be experienced at the northern treeline by 2040 and at the southern treeline by 2050. With regards to the forest biome, the most significant warming to date has been predicted and observed in Siberia. A 2 °C increase in annual average temperature compared to the second half of the 19th century is smaller than the predictions of even the most conservative RCP2.6 climate change scenario (IPCC 2013), and has previously been assumed to not likely result in dramatic changes to ecosystems or biome shifts. We show that at a +2 °C change, biome shifts from forest to steppe are likely to occur across a large area in southern Siberia. These changes in land cover will inevitably result in changes in the biodiversity, carbon storage, and the ecosystem services provided by the boreal forests of southern Siberia.

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region

This study investigated the future climate change impacts on water resources and delineated the highly susceptible zones in the Asian monsoon region. Three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were employed for future climate change projections. The change factor method with bilinear interpolation was used to project climate change at 0.5° horizontal gird resolution. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model was employed to project runoff using future climate change scenarios. Average temperature, precipitation and runoff were projected to increase by all future periods i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. In particular by 2080s, they were projected to increase by 3.7 °C, 10.7 and 11.1 %, respectively. Latitudinal and longitudinal analysis was performed to investigate the features of future climate change at different latitudes and longitudes. The climate change projections revealed susceptible regions in East Asia over southern China, and in South Asia over the Tibetan plateau, India and Pakistan. Southern China was projected to be adversely affected by climate change with precipitation and runoff increase during summer and autumn seasons, and decrease during winter and spring seasons. Similarly, distinct climate change features were projected over the Tibetan plateau and north Pakistan with significant increase of average annual temperature and decrease of average annual precipitation and runoff. This change is alarming for the world’s longest glaciers outside the Polar Regions. On the other hand, the precipitation and runoff were projected to significantly increase over southwest India and south Pakistan. That may have positive impact over extremely water-scarce regions i.e., the Thar Desert, the Cholistan Desert and the Kharan Desert, but also poses a serious threat to the flood prone areas of South India and Pakistan.

Modeling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: generating scenarios for stream salamanders

Hybrid modelling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modelling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus) in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modelling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders’ reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

Climate Change Adaptation: Role of Local Agricultural Innovations in Semi-Arid Tanzania

Agriculture which supports the livelihoods of the majority is challenged by many stressors including climate change impacts. Impacts such as floods and droughts have left farmers with no reliable option rather than farm management and off-farm activities such as irrigation, use of improved seed varieties, crop and livelihood diversification. Nevertheless, contribution of such practices to improving livelihood among smallholder farmers is generally documented and concluded. This study was therefore carried out to determine effectiveness of local agricultural innovation system in enhancing livelihood of smallholder farmers in semi-arid Tanzania. The study was conducted in Sanjaranda and Gurungu villages, Manyoni District. Literature review and Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods including focus group discussions and household interviews; key informant interviews, and transect walks were employed to collect data. Results from the study indicate that, the surveyed communities were knowledgeable of climate change of their localities in the past 20 years. Changes in the climate included shifting of rainfall seasons, fewer and erratic Original Research Article Benedict and Majule; JAERI, 3(4): 147-159, 2015; Article no.JAERI.2015.043 148 rains and an increase in temperature. Meteorological data also supported a decreasing trend in rainfall and an increase in annual average temperature by 0.7oC in the past 30 years. Responding to these changes, farmers developed a number of farming practices that included use of improved seed varieties, improved agronomic practices, in-situ rainwater harvesting and application of farm yard manure. These practices were also supported by public activities, civil society organisations and the private sector contributions to increase trends in crop yields in one way or another. This study argue that, strengthening local agricultural innovation system could enhance community livelihoods under changing environment.

Signals of climate change in butterfly communities in a Mediterranean protected area.

The European protected-area network will cease to be efficient for biodiversity conservation, particularly in the Mediterranean region, if species are driven out of protected areas by climate warming. Yet, no empirical evidence of how climate change influences ecological communities in Mediterranean nature reserves really exists. Here, we examine long-term (1998–2011/2012) and short-term (2011–2012) changes in the butterfly fauna of Dadia National Park (Greece) by revisiting 21 and 18 transects in 2011 and 2012 respectively, that were initially surveyed in 1998. We evaluate the temperature trend for the study area for a 22-year-period (1990–2012) in which all three butterfly surveys are included. We also assess changes in community composition and species richness in butterfly communities using information on (a) species’ elevational distributions in Greece and (b) Community Temperature Index (calculated from the average temperature of species' geographical ranges in Europe, weighted by species' abundance per transect and year). Despite the protected status of Dadia NP and the subsequent stability of land use regimes, we found a marked change in butterfly community composition over a 13 year period, concomitant with an increase of annual average temperature of 0.95°C. Our analysis gave no evidence of significant year-to-year (2011–2012) variability in butterfly community composition, suggesting that the community composition change we recorded is likely the consequence of long-term environmental change, such as climate warming. We observe an increased abundance of low-elevation species whereas species mainly occurring at higher elevations in the region declined. The Community Temperature Index was found to increase in all habitats except agricultural areas. If equivalent changes occur in other protected areas and taxonomic groups across Mediterranean Europe, new conservation options and approaches for increasing species’ resilience may have to be devised.

Climate Change, Risk and Grain Yields in China

Adopting Just and Pope (1978, 1979) style yield functions, this paper proposes a method to analyze the impacts of regional climate change on grain production in China. We find that changes in climate will affect grain production in North and South China differently. Specifically, it emerges that a 1°C increase in annual average temperature could reduce national grain output by 1.45% (1.74% reduction in North China and 1.19% reduction in South China), while an increase in total annual precipitation of around 100 mm could increase national grain output by 1.31% (3.0% increase in North China and 0.59% reduction in South China).

Examining Effects of Climatic Factors on Flexible Pavement Performance and Service Life

The potential risk of climate change raises interest in how it may affect the deterioration rates of flexible pavements and how pavement service lives would be altered as a consequence. Previous studies demonstrated that temperature is the most influential environmental factor for the Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design Guide. In this study, temperature factors, both the increase in average annual temperature and the seasonal variation in temperature, are examined through a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the pavement performance to temperature as well as other environmental factors such as precipitation, wind speed, percent sunshine, and groundwater level is included as a comparison. This study concluded that temperature factors, both the increase in average annual temperature and the seasonal variation, are the most influential in pavement performance. Moreover, pavement service life may experience considerable reduction because of climate change in some regions if design is not adapted to the changed climate.

Impacts of Future Urban Expansion on Regional Climate in the Northeast Megalopolis, USA

In this paper, evidences for influences of future urban expansion on regional climate in the Northeast megalopolis, USA, are presented. The model-based analysis shows that future urban expansion will significantly result in regional climate change. An average annual temperature increase ranging from 2°C to 5°C in new urban area and an average annual temperature decrease ranging from 0.40°C to 1.20°C in the south of the megalopolis will be caused by future urban expansion. The average annual precipitation of the simulation area will decrease due to future urban expansion by 5.75 mm, 7.10 mm, and 8.35 mm in the periods of 2010–2020, 2040–2050, and 2090–2100, respectively. The warming effect of future urban expansion in original and new urban area and drought effects in nonurban area will be more serious in summer than in winter. A cooling effect will turn up in original urban area in winter. This research further shows that a study at the scale of megalopolis helps to understand the integrated effect of combination and interaction of multiple cities and their surrounding areas which may crucially determine regional climate pattern and should be highly valued in the future.