Increase In Average Annual Temperature Research Articles

Shifting climate zones and expanding tropical and arid climate regions across Kenya (1980–2020)

Human-induced climate change significantly alters the spatiotemporal characteristics of climate zones, which drives agricultural land use and ecosystem change. However, the detectability of shifting climate zones and the rate and time of the changes has yet to be adequately addressed at the regional-to-local scale. We mapped and analyzed changes to temperature and precipitation across Kenya during the past four decades, and linked those changes to shifts in the geographic distribution and arrangement of climate zones at regional scales. We observed an approximate 1 °C increase in average annual temperature over the 40-year period. A total of 76,346 km2 shifted from cooler to hotter zones, while 1298 km2 shifted from hotter to cooler zones. Tropical climate regions expanded from 91 to 93%, with over 13,000 km2 shifting from alpine and temperate to tropical regions. Average annual precipitation demonstrated little or no trend, but substantial spatial changes were observed. A total of 136,129 km2 shifted from wetter to drier zones, while 23,317 km2 shifted from drier to wetter zones. Arid climate regions expanded from 72 to 81%, a roughly 50,000 km2 shift from humid and semi-humid-to-semi-arid to arid regions. Overall, there was a 207,557 km2 shift in temperature and precipitation zones. As the climate zones predominately shift toward hotter and drier conditions, climatic diversity will decline, and in turn, ecosystem diversity and the ecosystem goods and services to society will decline. The changes also have broader global implications in terms of their contribution to global drylands as well as influencing earth system cycles. Overall, such information can better inform the Kenyan National Climate Change Response Strategy and be used to reach the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

부산광역시 관광산업 탄소배출량 산정에 관한 연구

One of the biggest issues receiving attention recently on a global scale is climate change. In the Paris Agreement, it is necessary to maintain the average annual temperature increase of the Earth below 2°C to cope with climate change, and to this end, it was decided to establish and implement goals and strategies for each country. Consequently, carbon neutrality movements have been identified in Korea, with Busan serving as a prime example. As one of the cities with the highest carbon emissions among the world's major port cities, Busan has set a goal of reducing carbon by 47% compared to 2018. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to first calculate the carbon emission of the tourism industry in Busan through a top-down method to achieve carbon neutrality. Second, we intend to derive comparisons and implications for each industry through the calculated carbon emission. As a result of the study, it was found that about 690,000 tCO2eq was emitted as of 2015 when building an inventory and calculating carbon emissions through the Busan tourism satellite account. By single inventory, “wholesale and retail and product brokerage services” were the highest at 24.5%, followed by “road transportation services” at 19.8%, and “air transportation services” at 19.6%. The implication of this study is that carbon emission calculation using the top-down method laid the groundwork for a future study on carbon emission calculation using the bottom-up method. In addition, it is believed that reflecting industrial characteristics when establishing policies based on the results of calculating carbon emissions by industry can contribute to more realistic policy formation.

Is Aquatic Fern <i>Salvinia natans</i> (Salviniaceae) Rare in Russia?

According to publication and literature, herbarium data, materials of Internet resources, the change in distribution of aquatic fern Salvinia natans (Salviniaceae) on Russian territory was traced since the beginning of XX century until 2021, and the current boundaries of its range were determined. Among the bioclimatic and temperature indicators that determine the distribution of S. natans, the minimum and maximum temperatures in October and January and the maximum temperatures in April and July showed the highest statistical significance, which is associated with important stages of the life cycle of S. natans. Comparison of species localities with climatic and temperature indicators for the time periods of 1960–1969, 2010–2018, 2011–2021 showed that up to 2021 in the European part, West Siberia, and the Far East there was significant spreading of S. natans to the north (more than 200 km). A notable increase in the number of records of the species has been found since the 2000s in different regions. For example, in the Ivanovo Region from 2018 to 2021 their number has increased more than three time. The expansion of the species occurs against the background of a noticeable increase in average annual temperatures and changes in other bioclimatic indicators. If present temperature trends continue, S. natans will expand its range even further north, east, and west in European Russia, north and west in West Siberia and the Far East. Due to the ongoing expansion of S. natans, the premises for the exclusion of the species from a number of regional Red Data Books were discussed.

Impact of Climate Change on Ruderal Communities in the Conditions of Ukraine

Abstract We elucidated the reaction of ruderal vegetation community to environmental changes. It made it possible to assess the level and nature of the synanthropic vegetation dynamics, fluctuation processes, and also to indicate the scenarios of evolution of ruderal communities throughout the environmental changes, in particular, climate changes. In this study, we used the original methods: synphytoindications and estimation of the climate change impact and the species reaction according to their ecological strategy. Dataset included 1200 phytosociological relevés of different synanthropic habitat types (borders of fields, ruderal areas, and railway tracks). As a result of vegetation analysis, we obtained 16 alliances of ruderal vegetation belonging to the six classes and two natural vegetation derivatives of the Sedo-Scleranthetea Br.-Bl. 1955 and Festuco-Brometea Br.-Bl. & Tx. 1943. Evaluation of ecological indicator value changes in relation to 1, 2 and 3 °C increase in average annual temperatures allowed to determine how significant is the threat to the existence of ruderal communities. It is particularly noticeable in the thermal regime, and some changes in edaphic properties of soil, especially acidity (pH). Under the conditions of climate changes and ecological indicator value changes, such communities could be easily restored both in the appropriate conditions of the region and outside it, that is, shifting their range. But thanks to this strategy, the emergence of new species and, as a result of this, the formation of completely new vegetation types is possible.

Analysis of the Potential of GIS Technologies in the Assessment of Environmental Factors of Malariogenicity in the Territories of the Volgograd Region

In the southern regions of Russia, high risks of the spread of malaria remain. The situation is aggravated by the increase in average annual temperatures in the long-term distribution and the growth of eutrophicated small water bodies, which are favorable for the completion of the life cycle of the disease vectors mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. In order to establish the relationship between climatic factors and the status of populations of insect vectors of the causative agent of malaria, an analysis of the amount of surface water was carried out using GIS technologies. For the calculation, the MNDWI index was chosen, based on the use of images in the Green and SWIR bands of the Landsat 8 satellite. The indicators of the average and maximum number of larvae and adults of mosquitoes were analyzed on the basis of information presented in the annual reports of the Office of the Federal Service for Supervision of Consumer Rights Protection and human well-being in the Volgograd region. There are three malariogenic zones in the region: northern (Kamyshinsky), central (Volgograd) and southern (Kotelnikovskaya). The overall dynamics of MNDWI for the Kamyshin zone tended to increase the water index from -0.176 to -0.171 in a two-year range. Similar MNDWI indicators for the Volgograd and Kotelnikovsky malariogenic foci also had a positive trend in the period from 2018 to 2020. The modified normalized water index for them increased from -0.152 to -0.126 and from -0.215 to -0.158, respectively. Calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient for the study area revealed the presence of a high closeness of a direct relationship between the MNDWI index and the maximum number of larvae/adults in the Kamyshin region (0.994/0.833). For Volgograd, the strength of the correlation was in the region of average (noticeable) values, except for the average value for adults, where the relationship was strong (0.904). In Kotelnikovo, the relationship between periods of drought and the number of larvae was inversely proportional, with the exception of the maximum number of adults (0.943), which can be explained by the small value of the sample of the final emergence of insects and the measurement error due to the logic of the methodology for studying the number of larval forms in natural water bodies. The results obtained can be used to improve the system for monitoring the dynamics of malariogenicity by supervisory authorities in the field of population welfare. Further research prospects are associated with a change in approaches to assessing the average values of the number of malaria vector insects, as well as with our own field work on the study of the composition of the mosquito entemofauna of the river. Anopheles for the purpose of calibrating data reported by government agencies.

Impact of climate change on future availability of water for irrigation and hydropower generation in the Omo-Gibe Basin of Ethiopia

Study regionOmo-Gibe River Basin, Ethiopia Study focusThe objective of this study was to predict the impact of climate change on the future availability of water for irrigation and hydropower production. Climate change projections for the near future (2017–2044), medium (2045–2072), and long-term (2073–2100) using a multi-model set average of fifteen regional climate models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Water availability, allocation, and demand for irrigation and hydropower generation were predicted using the coupled Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological models. New hydrological insights for the regionThe projected annual average temperature increase range is 2.10–3.6 °C under RCP 4.5 emission scenarios while 2.7–4.8 °C under RCP 8.5. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emissions scenarios, projected annual average precipitation declines ranged from 10.7–13.6 % and 11.1–13.8 %, respectively. Projected annual average declines in streamflow ranged from 7.0 % to 10.9 % under PCR 4.5 emissions scenarios, while 10.9–2.8 % under PCR 8.5. As a consequence, water shortages for irrigation may decrease by 15.5–25.4 % and hydroelectricity by 10.5–20.2 % during study periods. Due to the combined effect of climate change and rising water demand, the increase in water scarcity ranges from 7.9–30.6 %. The projected results showed that future water availability for irrigation and hydropower generation will decline in the future. Climate change adaptation options are needed to ensure future water availability for hydropower generation and irrigation.

Permafrost Early Deformation Signals before the Norilsk Oil Tank Collapse in Russia

Despite the profound roles of surface deformation monitoring techniques in observing permafrost surface stability, predetermining the approximate location and time of possibly occurring severe permafrost degradation before applying these techniques is extremely necessary, but has received little attention. Taking the oil tank collapse accident in the Norilsk region as a case, we explored this concern by analyzing the permafrost deformation mechanisms and determining early surface deformation signals. Regarding this case, we firstly applied the Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) technique to obtain its permafrost surface deformation rate, then utilized a sine model to decompose its interannual deformation and seasonal deformation, and finally compared the relationship between the topographic slope and deformation rate. Based on experimental results, we reveal that when the annual average temperature continuously increases at a rate of 2 °C/year for 2∼3 consecutive years, permafrost areas with relatively large topographic slopes (>15°) are more prone to severe surface deformation during the summer thaw period. Therefore, this paper suggests that permafrost areas with large topographic slopes (>15°) should be taken as the key surveillance areas, and that the appropriate monitoring time for employing surface deformation monitoring techniques should be the summer thawing period after a continuous increase in annual average temperature at a rate of 2 °C/year for 2∼3 years.

Particularity of environmental biotic factors impact on mammal’s organism

This article explores ecological significance of animal venom as a stressful biotic factor and its role in disruption of homeostatic processes in mammal’s organism. The variety of venomous species of animals and their widely distribution in the world forces other species of animals to adapt to the coexistence with them. Thus, venom toxins have an important ecological significance, because they act as stressors and appreciably impact on the biotic interaction between organisms. According to scientists’ estimates, 220.000 species of animals, or 15% of the world’s biodiversity, are venomous, and there are 3.709 species of venomous snakes. The increase of snakebites cases is not only related to geographical distribution of snakes, but also to climate changes (high humidity and an increase of average annual temperature), which contributes to the reproduction of snakes and a shift of their natural habitats. Every year, around 5.4 million people are bitten by snakes worldwide. This leads to heavy social and economic costs in many countries of the world and it is the reason for constant attention to this problem. Among the variety of venomous animals, snakes have attracted the greatest attention of scientists due to peculiarities of the composition of their venom, its biochemical properties and the possibility of use in pharmacology and medicine. However, despite annual large-scale studies of the composition of snake toxins, the specifics of their effects on animals and human is not fully indentified. It has been established that among venomous snakes only vipers are common in Ukraine. Among them there are two subspecies of the common adder (Vipera berus Linnaeus, 1758): Vipera b. berus, which can be found in Polissia, Forest Steppe and the Carpathians, and Nikolsky’s viper (Vipera berus nikolskii Vedmederja, Grubant et Rudaeva, 1986), which occurs mainly in the Left Forest Steppe. Their bites can be very painful, but are rarely fatal for adults. Vipera berus venom has hemolytic, proteolytic and cytotoxic properties due to its composition: phospholipase A2, serine proteases, metallo proteases, amino acid L-oxidase, hemorrhagic factors and blood coagulation inhibitors, vasoactive peptides, cysteine-rich secretory protein. The composition of Vipera b. berus and Vipera b. nikolskii venom and mechanism of its action in victim’s organism were analyzed too. It is known that among the components of Nikolsky viper’s venom (Vipera b. nikolskii) the most part belongs to various enzymes. Of all enzymes, phospholipase A2 reached about 65% of the dry weight, serine proteases — 19%. Experiments on mammals (mice) showed that Nikol­sky’s viper (Vipera b. nikolskii) venom cause both local symptoms — swelling, pain, lymphangitis, and systemic symptoms — hypotension, mild neurotoxic effect. In addition, there are reports of damage to the cranial nerves and progressive paralysis of the limbs in mice. The components of Vipera b. berus viper venom have mainly a hemotoxic effect due to variety of enzymes from the metalloproteinase family, serine proteases, L-amino acid oxidases and C-type lectinlike proteins and cause enhanced blood coagulation. It is known that L-amino acid oxidases block the neuromuscular transmission of impulses and cause the destruction of cell membranes. The venom of this viper also contains several proteins that have a neurotoxic effect. A comprehensive and thorough analysis of experimental research data testify that the composition of toxins of various animal species, including vipers, is extremely diverse. Plenty of studies state about the hemovasotoxic and neurotoxic effects of these venoms. There are also reports of damage to the cardiovascular, urinary, respiratory, and digestive systems. It is noted that not all targets of viper toxins in mammal’s organism have been identified yet, and not all mechanisms of its action are understood, so further research is relevant.

Climate Change Effect on Water Use Efficiency under Selected Soil and Water Conservation Practices in the Ruzizi Catchment, Eastern D.R. Congo

Concerns have been raised on the effectiveness and sustainability of Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) practices as adaptation options to climate change and high intra– and inter–annual rainfall variabilities in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This study was conducted in the Ruzizi Plain, a dryland area, to assess the performance of maize (Zea mays L.) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two SWC practices (tied ridges and conventional tillage). The AgMIP’s Regional Integrated Assessment (RIA) approach was used to simulate Water Use Efficiency (WUE) under the Cropping System Model–Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CSM–CERES–Maize) of the Decision Support System for Agro–technology Transfer (DSSAT). The model was calibrated using experimental data from nine cropping seasons (2011–2018) and 100 farms. The model sensitivity was assessed as a function of temperature, water, and SWC practices for the same environments. Initial conditions of crop management practices were used as input data for CSM–CERES–Maize. Current climate data were extracted from AgMERRA datasets corrected with local data for the period of 1980 to 2021. Future climate projections (2022–2099) were obtained after down−scaling the data from the 29 General Circulation Models (GCMS) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and subsetted to five GCMs based on climate regimes. GCMS results were a strong indicator that climate change in this DRC dryland will result in an increase in average annual temperatures for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5, with the highest increase (3.05 °C) under hot/dry conditions for RCP8.5 and the lowest (1.04 °C) under cool/dry conditions for RCP 4.5. All the models selected for five climate regimes for 2022–2099 showed no change in the rainfall trends for RCP 4.5 (p > 0.05). The models projected yield declines of 5–25%, with less yield losses under tied ridges as an adaptation practice. The use of efficient SWC practices could therefore be a promising strategy in reducing potential losses from climate change in drylands of eastern DRC.

The northward spread of the European mantis, Mantis religiosa (Mantodea: Mantidae): Data from Lithuania

Geographic distribution of the European mantis, Mantis religiosa (Linnaeus, 1758) in Europe covers mostly southern and central Europe, but this species has recently shown a significant northward spread. First reports of M. religiosa in Lithuania were in 2008 and now these insects are distributed throughout this country. Information on the spread of M. religiosa in Lithuania between 2015 and 2020 are analysed in this paper. The spread of this insect in Lithuania and neighbouring countries can be related to changes in climate, in particular, the increase in average annual temperature and milder winters. Possible routes along which M. religiosa spread northwards based on an analysis of mtDNA sequences are presented.

Spatial effects of climate change on tourism development in china: An analysis of tourism value chains

Tourism value chains is scattered across the economic fields. This paper seeks to carry out an empirical analysis of the relationship between climate change and tourism development in China. We used relevant data from 31 provinces in China, and analyzed the spatial effects of climate change on tourism development using a spatial Durbin model. In the development of tourism in Chinese provinces, the research results show that the high-high agglomeration areas of inbound overnight tourists are widely distributed in the coastal areas of eastern China, while the low-low agglomeration areas are mainly distributed in western China, showing an unreasonable bipolar distribution. In terms of climate change, the increase of annual precipitation contributes to the enhancement of the number of inbound overnight tourists in local areas, but reduces the number of inbound overnight tourists in adjacent areas; the increase of annual average temperature raises the number of inbound overnight tourists in local areas, but decreases the number of inbound overnight tourists in adjacent areas; which indicates that there is a spatial spillover effect of climate change on tourism development. Therefore, we propose that western China should receive further policy support, the positive spatial spillover effect of the number of inbound overnight visitors among provinces should be fully utilized, and the tourist attractions should be enriched and developed. However, there are some limitations in the construction of the spatial weight matrix, the consideration of sample size, and the selection of factors affecting tourism development.

DEVELOPMENT AND RESEARCH OF THE TOPOLOGY OF COOLING BAFFLES FOR BLADES OF THE AXIAL CARBON DIOXIDE TURBINES

Currently, there is an increase in average annual temperature and climate change across the various continents. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy facilities contributed to this condition. Implementation of oxy-fuel cycles is a promising solution for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. To date, the most efficient oxy-fuel cycle is the Allam cycle. In this cycle supercritical carbon dioxide acts as a working fluid of the cycle, wherein СО2’s temperature upstream of the turbine is 1,150 °С and the pressure is 30 MPa. Due to the high temperature of the working fluid, it is necessary to cool first stages of the carbon dioxide turbine. The feature of considered cooling system in this turbine is that carbon dioxide being used as a refrigerant too. This paper investigated two topologies of convective cooling systems in the carbon dioxide turbine’s nozzle blade as well as considers an option for increasing the intensity of heatexchange through the use of helical ribbing in the cylindrical cooling baffle. Numerical simulation involving the ANSYS software package was performed for two topologies of the cooling baffles arrangement in the nozzle blade body: configuration 1 -with 17 baffles of 1 mm diameter, configuration 2 -with three baffles of the blade profile shape. Configuration 1 proved to be more efficient: the Nusselt number has a value of 117, and average value of the heat transfer coefficient on the refrigerant side is 6,413 W/m2∙K. The effect of using helical ribbing in the cooling cylindrical baffle of the blade under study was investigated, which enabled to reduce the metal temperature by 54 °С on average and doubled the heat transfer coefficient.

Influence of Climate Changes on Hydrothermal Regime of Dark Gray Podzolized Soil of Western Forest Steppe

Thermal properties of soil are important conditions that determine the nature and intensity of soil processes, but the features of the formation of thermal and water regimes of dark gray podzolized soil of the Ukrainian Forest Steppe are insufficiently studied. The purpose of the presented materials is to highlight the dynamics of the annual course of temperature and humidity of the air and dark gray podzolized soil to determine the peculiarities of the formation of its hydrothermal regime in modern agro-climatic conditions of the Forest Steppe zone. The study of soil temperature was carried out during 2008-2019 in the Rivne region using generally accepted standards and methods (DSTU ISO 11464-2007, DSTU ISO 11465-2001, DSTU B B.2.1-17:2009, DSTU B B.2.1-25:2009). Surface air temperature observations throughout the study period indicate an increase in average annual temperature, and five-year averages of the sum of effective air temperatures above 10°C show tends to increase. The study of the relationship between the temperature of the surface air layer and dark gray soil in the Rivne region confirmed that the correlation of these indicators is linear. Analyzing the dynamics of temperature indicators, it should be noted a significant increase in maximum soil temperatures, due to which there is an increase in average annual temperatures. Detailing of soil warming indicators according to the data of ten years showed that during 2008-2017 the soils warmed up much more than in the average during the whole period of meteorological observations. According to the accepted classification, the studied soils belong to the seasonally freezing type, moderately warm subtype and genus with medium heat supply. The results obtained during the study allow to justify changes in the hydrothermal conditions of dark gray podzolized soil and determine the needs for corrective measures in crop production to maintain sustainable yields and ensure enhanced fertility reproduction

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation on Tea Yield in Turkey

The study aims to determine the changes in annual tea yield in Turkey between 1975 and 2019 and analyse the yield relationship with temperature and precipitation conditions. Within the scope of the study, statistical relationships between monthly temperature and precipitation data and annual tea yield were examined. In addition, the annual changes and trends in the yearly tea yield were revealed. As a result of the study, a statistically significant positive relationship was determined between annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures and annual tea yield. On the other hand, the relationship between total yearly precipitation and annual tea yield was insignificant. Relationships between temperature and yield are more substantial in summer. A statistically significant increasing trend was defined in tea yield during the 1975-2019 period in the research area. There was a considerable increase in annual average temperatures in the same period but an insignificant increase in precipitation. In the light of these, an increase in tea yield due to temperature rises can be expected in the region by looking at climate change scenarios.

Floating Solar Park Impacts Urban Land Surface Temperature Distribution Pattern

In recent years, the global photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly. It is significant for evaluating the impact of large-scale solar parks on the environment for the sustainable development of the photovoltaic industry. At present, researchers have paid attention to changes in the local thermal environment caused by solar parks. As a new type of solar park, the influence of floating solar parks on urban land surface temperature distribution patterns is still unclear. In this article, we (1) take the floating solar parks in Huainan City, China, as the study area; (2) calculate the land surface temperature (LST) of the study area and its adjacent areas by using Landsat 8 remote sensing data and the radiation transfer equation method; and (3) judge the influence of solar parks on the distribution pattern of LST. On this basis, we analyzed the influence range and seasonal differences of floating solar parks on LST. Our results revealed that, first, the floating solar park has a warming effect in the summer and winter, and the warming area is concentrated mainly within 200 m of the photovoltaic panels' coverage area. Second, during the construction phase and after the completion of the floating solar parks, the average monthly LST of the solar panels is generally higher than the water, and the average annual temperature increase in the above two stages is 3.26°C and 4.50°C, respectively. The change of floating solar parks on urban LST distribution patterns may impact the local ecosystem. In the future, it is necessary to consider the impact of floating solar parks on local LST during the construction of floating solar parks.

Climate change impact on cryosphere and streamflow in the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) of north-western Himalayas.

The critical significance of keeping the current information about the extent and dynamics of the cryosphere in the Himalayas cannot be understated. The climate of the Himalayas is vulnerable and interlinked with global-scale climate changes, and the hydrology of the region mainly depends on the cryosphere. This is the first study that has created glacier and glacier lake inventory that links the impact of cryosphere on streamflow to land system dynamic changes under the changing climate of the Upper Jhelum River Basin (UJRB) of the Kashmir Himalayan region. This study uses a series of satellite data (1980-2016) to assess the depletion of snow cover area (SCA), deglaciation, and dynamics of glacial lakes. Moreover, observational long-term hydrometeorological data were used to understand the variability in temperature, precipitation, and track changes of land system dynamics under depletion of streamflow. The results suggested an overall rise in temperature (TMax = 0.05 ºC a-1; TMin = 0.02 ºC a-1; Tavg = 0.06 ºC a-1) and a decrease in precipitation (2.9mm a-1) between 1980 and 2016 with a significant increase in annual average temperature and decrease in annual precipitation at stations located at higher altitudes. The SCA showed a significantly decreasing (p < 0.01) trend in the glacierized sub-basins with an annual rate of decrease of -0.78% a-1, -0.15% a-1, -0.03% a-1 -0.90% a-1 for Lidder, Sindh, Vishow, and Rambiara sub-basins, respectively. The findings of this study reveal the high occurrence of glacier disintegration and deglaciation. During the period 2010-2016, a rapid rate of deglaciation was observed (18.34 ± 0.14 km2), followed by 1992-2000 (15.61 ± 0.13 km2). The average rate of retreat was observed to be 6.81 ± 1.5m a-1 with a total retreat of 267 ± 80m during 1980-2016, which is higher than reported from surrounding mountain ranges in the Himalayas. The mapped 244 glacial and high-altitude lake inventory covers a total surface area of around 15 km2, with 5.87 km2 (40%) covered by 25 bedrock-dammed lakes. The glacial expansion and creation of new lakes are observed to be because of increasing glacier and snow melting between 1980 and 2016, which increases the risk of GLOF events in the future. The annual average discharge in UJRB significantly increased from 1991 to 1998 and was observed to be higher than the annual average of the respected gauge stations but shows significant depletion from 1998 onwards. The streamflow depletion under climate change is one of the reasons for land system dynamics in UJRB. The area under agriculture has decreased up to 63% with a massive expansion of built-up (399%), aquatic vegetation (523%), and plantation (765%) between 1992 and 2015.

Global warming and export competitiveness of agriculture sector: evidence from heterogeneous econometric analysis of Pakistan.

The increase in average annual temperature due to greenhouse gases emission is posing threat to the agriculture sector across the globe. Pakistan is labor abundant agrarian country that heavily depends on the agriculture sector for food, employment, and raw material for industries. This study is a preliminary investigation that explores the effect of increasing average annual temperature on the competitiveness of 24 major agricultural exports from 2003 to 2020. The revealed export advantage (RXA) is used to explore the competitive performance of selected agricultural exports, which is then normalized to examine the effect of increasing average annual temperature along with official exchange rate, urbanization, and globalization. The panel fixed-effect model with heteroscedasticity consistent robust standard error recommended by White (Econometrica 48(4):817-838, 1980)is used to explore model estimates, whereas the robustness check has been performed by using heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity consistent robust standard error model of Driscoll and Kaary (Rev Econ Stat 80(4):549-559, 1998). The estimated result reveals that the increasing average annual temperature has a negative but insignificant impact on the export competitiveness of selected agricultural exports. While, urbanization and exchange rate deprecation show a significant negative effect of higher intensity, respectively. Globalization, however, reveals a significant positive impact on the competitiveness of selected agricultural exports. This study, therefore, urges for the development of the agriculture sector by adopting SDGs proposed by the United Nations for sustainable economic growth and development.

Evolution of vegetation in the Utinoe Lake basin (the Russian Far East) during the Middle-Late Holocene

Abstract. Evolution of vegetation in the Utinoe Lake basin was studied. Periodicity of vegetation changes in its basin were reconstructed by the palynological data. The Middle Holocene stage of the vegetation evolution proceeded in the conditions of general planetary increase in average annual temperatures, accompanied by flooding of lowland plains by the Sea of Japan. Composition of the polydominant forests on the ridges during the Middle-Late Holocene was more rich what the present time were formed. Vegetation of the foothill plains was represented with sedge and mixed meadows. The Late Holocene stage was characterized by a decrease in average annual temperatures and series of climatic changes. Its beginning was marked by the cooling, during which the coastal lowlands were freed from sea waters. Climate deterioration caused expansion of dark coniferous and small-leaved plants in the Utinoe Lake basin, as well as reduction of polydominant forests. On the foothills near the coast of the Peter the Great Bay sedge meadows were developed, sometimes there were thickets of Betula sect. Nanae and sphagnum swamps. At the end of the Late Holocene the warming occurred again. On the mountain frame of the Utinoe Lake basin, the vegetation formations with the dominance Q. mongolica, Q. dentata, A. holophylla, P.koraiensis with the presence of birches began to dominate. The dissemination of Pinus densiflora, Ulmus, Carpinus cordata and Acer has increased. On the lowlands the sedge-reed meadows with different grass dominated.

PROGNOSTIC CRITERIA FOR THE SELECTION OF INDIVIDUALS WITH DIFFERENT HEAT SENSITIVITY.

The aim: To establish criteria for individual thermal sensitivity in almost healthy individuals aged 17-20 years. Materials and methods: We surveyed 150 people aged 17-20 years. Heat sensitivity was previously assessed using our adapted questionnaire «Levels of heat sensitivity», in which according to the scale the number of points 0-6 indicates reduced heat sensitivity, 7-16 points - increased). All respondents underwent thermal testing. The subjects had auscultatory determination of pulse rate and blood pressure, after which the hands of both hands were immersed in a container with warm water (45° C) for 3 minutes. At the 2nd minute, pulse rate and blood pressure were determined. this procedure was repeated after the hands were removed from the water, and every 2 minutes until the pulse and blood pressure recovered over time. Before and after the heat test, a mathematical analysis of heart rate was performed using a computer software package, according to the manufacturer›s instructions. Results: After conducting a thermal test in people with hypersensitivity, an increase in the average values of heart rate and blood pressure. In the group of people with lower sensitivity to heat, heart rate and blood pressure after the heat test decreased or did not change. As a result of statistical processing of data from mathematical analysis of heart rate, it was found that in persons with hypersensitivity after the thermal test increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system, while in subjects with reduced sensitivity to heat showed a slight advantage of parasympathetic nervous system. Conclusions: Increased activity of the sympathetic nervous system in response to heat in people with hypersensitivity indicates the development of stress, and given the current trend towards long-term and constant increase in average annual temperature, this will lead to overstrain of regulatory mechanisms, depletion of functional reserves and reduced adaptability . Therefore, people with high heat sensitivity are particularly vulnerable to global climate change.

Propagation of the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Through the Salish Sea

Effects and impacts of the Northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014–2016 on the inner coastal estuarine waters of the Salish Sea were examined using a combination of monitoring data and an established three-dimensional hydrodynamic and biogeochemical model of the region. The anomalous high temperatures reached the U.S. Pacific Northwest continental shelf toward the end of 2014 and primarily entered the Salish Sea waters through an existing strong estuarine exchange. Elevated temperatures up to + 2.3°C were observed at the monitoring stations throughout 2015 and 2016 relative to 2013 before dissipating in 2017. The hydrodynamic and biogeochemical responses to this circulating high-temperature event were examined using the Salish Sea Model over a 5-year window from 2013 to 2017. Responses of conventional water-quality indicator variables, such as temperature and salinity, nutrients and phytoplankton, zooplankton, dissolved oxygen, and pH, were evaluated relative to a baseline without the marine heatwave forcing. The simulation results relative to 2014 show an increase in biological activity (+14%, and 6% Δ phytoplankton biomass, respectively) during the peak heatwave year 2015 and 2016 propagating toward higher zooplankton biomass (+14%, +18% Δ mesozooplankton biomass). However, sensitivity tests show that this increase was a direct result of higher freshwater and associated nutrient loads accompanied by stronger estuarine exchange with the Pacific Ocean rather than warming due to the heatwave. Strong vertical circulation and mixing provided mitigation with only ≈+0.6°C domain-wide annual average temperature increase within Salish Sea, and served as a physical buffer to keep waters cooler relative to the continental shelf during the marine heatwave.