Ice Shelf Collapse Research Articles

A Speed Limit on Ice Shelf Collapse Through Hydrofracture

AbstractIncreasing surface melt has been implicated in the collapse of several Antarctic ice shelves over the last few decades, including the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf over a period of just a few weeks in 2002. The speed at which an ice shelf disintegrates strongly determines the subsequent loss of grounded ice and sea level rise, but the controls on collapse speed are not well understood. Here we show, using a novel cellular automaton model, that there is an intrinsic speed limit on ice shelf collapse through cascades of interacting melt pond hydrofracture events. Though collapse speed increases with the area of hydrofracture influence, the typical flexural length scales of Antarctic ice shelves ensure that hydrofracture interactions remain localized. We argue that the speed at which Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed was caused by a season of anomalously high surface meltwater production.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Glacier Surface Velocities and Outlet Areas on James Ross Island, Northern Antarctic Peninsula

The northern Antarctic Peninsula was affected by a significant warming over the second half of the 20th century and the collapse of several ice shelves. Local climate conditions on James Ross Island on the northeastern coast can differ strongly from the main part of the Antarctic Peninsula. This paper reports the spatial and temporal variability of glacier surface velocities and the area of their outlets throughout James Ross Island, and evaluates potential relationships with atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Velocity estimates were retrieved from intensity feature tracking of scenes from satellite synthetic aperture radar sensors TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X between 2014 and 2018, which were validated against ground observations. Calving front positions back to 1945 were used to calculate outlet area changes for the glaciers by using a common-box approach. The annual recession rates of almost all investigated glacier calving fronts decelerated for the time periods 2009–2014 and 2014–2018 in comparison to the period 1988–2009, but their velocity patterns differed. Analysis of atmospheric conditions failed to explain the different patterns in velocity and area changes. We suggest a strong influence from local bathymetric conditions. Future investigations of the oceanic conditions would be necessary for a profound understanding of the super-position of different influencing factors.

Frozen fringe explains sediment freeze-on during Heinrich events

Anomalous coarse-grained sediment layers beneath the North Atlantic likely originated from sediment freeze-on to the base of ice sheets during the last glacial period. These layers represent periods of extreme ice discharge, called Heinrich events, and are variously attributed to ice stream flow instability, ice shelf collapse, or enhanced terminus melting due to ocean warming. In this paper, we study the processes controlling how sediment freezes on to the base of ice streams and predict the volume of sediment conveyed by icebergs during a Heinrich event. The local thickness of frozen sediment is sensitive to the heat flux at the ice-bed interface and the water pressure, both of which also contribute to the controls on basal friction; as the basal water pressure increases, both the frozen sediment thickness and the basal friction decrease. The sediment discharged during a Heinrich event must have frozen on to the ice during the inter-Heinrich period. As the Heinrich event proceeds, the frozen sediment melts off the base of the ice stream, indicating that the thickness of sediments deposits in the North Atlantic may not reliably constrain Heinrich event duration. Choosing reasonable parameters corresponding to the Hudson Strait Ice Stream, our model of sediment freeze-on and discharge is consistent with observational estimates of Heinrich event sediment discharge volume.

The Effect of Foehn‐Induced Surface Melt on Firn Evolution Over the Northeast Antarctic Peninsula

AbstractSurface meltwater ponding has been implicated as a major driver for recent ice shelf collapse as well as the speedup of tributary glaciers in the northeast Antarctic Peninsula. Surface melt on the NAP is impacted by the strength and frequency of westerly winds, which result in sporadic foehn flow. We estimate changes in the frequency of foehn flow and the associated impact on snow melt, density, and the percolation depth of meltwater over the period 1982–2017 using a regional climate model and passive microwave data. The first of two methods extracts spatial patterns of melt occurrence using empirical orthogonal function analysis. The second method applies the Foehn Index, introduced here to capture foehn occurrence over the full study domain. Both methods show substantial foehn‐induced melt late in the melt season since 2015, resulting in compounded densification of the near‐surface snow, with potential implications for future ice shelf stability.

Humming Ice Shelf Changes Its Seismic Tune with the Weather

Seismic waves resonating within the upper layers of the Ross ice shelf could help scientists monitor the Antarctic melt season and understand factors that could lead to sudden ice shelf collapse.

In-situ and meteoric 10Be and 26Al measurements: Improved preparation and application at the University of Tokyo

Cosmogenic radionuclides have been widely used to decipher Earth surface processes. At the University of Tokyo Accelerator Mass Spectrometry facility (5 MV Tandem accelerator), we have been measuring both in-situ and meteoric cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al. In this paper, we report some development of methodology, including how to prepare target samples chemically to reduce their background. We then introduce some examples using the method to provide further insights into earth surface processes. These studies include: i) exposure dating to identify the growths and decays of the Antarctic ice sheet, ii) understanding ice shelf collapse history, iii) paleomagnetic excursion history reconstructions using ice cores, iv) understanding the erosion rates using depth profiles of mid latitude outcrops, v) identifying the timing of impact crater formation.

Millennial‐Scale Vulnerability of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Regional Ice Shelf Collapse

AbstractThe Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) remains the largest uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise. A likely climate‐driven vulnerability of the AIS is thinning of floating ice shelves resulting from surface‐melt‐driven hydrofracture or incursion of relatively warm water into subshelf ocean cavities. The resulting melting, weakening, and potential ice shelf collapse reduces shelf buttressing effects. Upstream ice flow accelerates, causing thinning, grounding‐line retreat, and potential ice sheet collapse. While high‐resolution projections have been performed for localized Antarctic regions, full‐continent simulations have typically been limited to low‐resolution models. Here we quantify the vulnerability of the entire present‐day AIS to regional ice shelf collapse on millennial timescales treating relevant ice flow dynamics at the necessary ∼1‐km resolution. Collapse of any of the ice shelves dynamically connected to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is sufficient to trigger ice sheet collapse in marine‐grounded portions of the WAIS. Vulnerability elsewhere appears limited to localized responses.

Velocity response of Petermann Glacier, northwest Greenland, to past and future calving events

Abstract. Dynamic ice discharge from outlet glaciers across the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased since the beginning of the 21st century. Calving from floating ice tongues that buttress these outlets can accelerate ice flow and discharge of grounded ice. However, little is known about the dynamic impact of ice tongue loss in Greenland compared to ice shelf collapse in Antarctica. The rapidly flowing (∼1000 m a−1) Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland has one of the ice sheet's last remaining ice tongues, but it lost ∼50 %–60 % (∼40 km in length) of this tongue via two large calving events in 2010 and 2012. The glacier showed a limited velocity response to these calving events, but it is unclear how sensitive it is to future ice tongue loss. Here, we use an ice flow model (Úa) to assess the instantaneous velocity response of Petermann Glacier to past and future calving events. Our results confirm that the glacier was dynamically insensitive to large calving events in 2010 and 2012 (<10 % annual acceleration). We then simulate the future loss of similarly sized sections to the 2012 calving event (∼8 km long) of the ice tongue back to the grounding line. We conclude that thin, soft sections of the ice tongue >12 km away from the grounding line provide little frontal buttressing, and removing them is unlikely to significantly increase ice velocity or discharge. However, once calving removes ice within 12 km of the grounding line, loss of these thicker and stiffer sections of ice tongue could perturb stresses at the grounding line enough to substantially increase inland flow speeds (∼900 m a−1), grounded ice discharge, and Petermann Glacier's contribution to global sea level rise.

Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework

Abstract. Estimating the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is critical for improving future sea level rise (SLR) projections. Numerical ice sheet models are invaluable tools for bounding Antarctic vulnerability; yet, few continental-scale projections of century-scale AIS SLR contribution exist, and those that do vary by up to an order of magnitude. This is partly because model projections of future sea level are inherently uncertain and depend largely on the model's boundary conditions and climate forcing, which themselves are unknown due to the uncertainty in the projections of future anthropogenic emissions and subsequent climate response. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of how uncertainties in model forcing and boundary conditions affect ice sheet model simulations. With use of sampling techniques embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) framework, we assess how uncertainties in snow accumulation, ocean-induced melting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation, and the presence of ice shelves impact continental-scale 100-year model simulations of AIS future sea level contribution. Overall, we find that AIS sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by variations in bedrock topography. In addition, we find that over 1.2 m of AIS global mean sea level contribution over the next century is achievable, but not likely, as it is tenable only in response to unrealistically large melt rates and continental ice shelf collapse. Regionally, we find that under our most extreme 100-year warming experiment generalized for the entire ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea sector is the most significant source of model uncertainty (1032 mm 6σ spread) and the region with the largest potential for future sea level contribution (297 mm). In contrast, under a more plausible forcing informed regionally by literature and model sensitivity studies, the Ronne basin has a greater potential for local increases in ice shelf basal melt rates. As a result, under this more likely realization, where warm waters reach the continental shelf under the Ronne ice shelf, it is the Ronne basin, particularly the Evans and Rutford ice streams, that are the greatest contributors to potential SLR (161 mm) and to simulation uncertainty (420 mm 6σ spread).

Decline in Surface Melt Duration on Larsen C Ice Shelf Revealed by The Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT)

Surface melting has been contributing to the surface lowering and loss of firn air content on Larsen C Ice Shelf since at least the mid‐1990s. Where the amount of melting and refreezing is significant, the firn can become impermeable and begin to support ponds of surface meltwater such as have been implicated in ice shelf collapse. Although meteorological station data indicated an increase in melt on the Antarctic Peninsula over the second half of the 20th century, the existing Ku‐band Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) time series is too short (1999–2009) to detect any significant 21st century trends. Here we investigate a longer 21st century period by extending the time series to 2017 using the C‐band Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT). We validate our recent observations with in situ weather station data and, using a firn percolation model, explore the sensitivity of scatterometry to water at varying depths in the firn. We find that active microwave C‐band (5.6‐cm wavelength) instruments can detect water at depths of up to 0.75 m below a frozen firn layer. Our longer scatterometry time series reveals that Larsen C Ice Shelf has experienced a decrease in melt season length of 1–2 days per year over the past 18 years consistent with decreasing summer air temperatures. Only in western inlets, where föhn winds drive melt, has the annual melt duration increased during this period.

The scientific response to Antarctic ice-shelf loss

Biological communities beneath Antarctic ice shelves remain a mystery, hampering assessment of ecosystem development after ice-shelf collapse. Here we highlight major gaps in understanding of the patterns and processes in these areas, and suggest effective ways to study the ecological impacts of ice-shelf loss under climate change.

A centuries-long delay between a paleo-ice-shelf collapse and grounding-line retreat in the Whales Deep Basin, eastern Ross Sea, Antarctica

Recent thinning and loss of Antarctic ice shelves has been followed by near synchronous acceleration of ice flow that may eventually lead to sustained deflation and significant contraction in the extent of grounded and floating ice. Here, we present radiocarbon dates from foraminifera that constrain the time elapsed between a previously described paleo-ice-shelf collapse and the subsequent major grounding-line retreat in the Whales Deep Basin (WDB) of eastern Ross Sea. The dates indicate that West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) grounding-line retreat from the continental shelf edge was underway prior to 14.7 ± 0.4 cal kyr BP. A paleo-ice-shelf collapse occurred at 12.3 ± 0.2 cal kyr BP. The grounding position was maintained on the outer-continental shelf until at least 11.5 ± 0.3 cal kyr BP before experiencing a 200-km retreat. Given the age uncertainties, the major grounding-line retreat lagged ice-shelf collapse by at least two centuries and by as much as fourteen centuries. In the WDB, the centuries-long delay in the retreat of grounded ice was partly due to rapid aggradational stacking of an unusually large volume of grounding-zone-wedge sediment as ice-stream discharge accelerated following ice-shelf collapse. This new deglacial reconstruction shows that ongoing changes to ice shelves may trigger complex dynamics whose consequences are realized only after a significant lag.

Analogue modelling of the influence of ice shelf collapse on the flow of ice sheets grounded below sea-level

In this work we use analogue modelling to analyse the effect of sudden ice shelf breakup on the flow of ice draining an ice sheet grounded below sea level. Experimental results confirm that the removal of the buttressing effect exerted by the ice shelf results in significant acceleration of inland glaciers: the models show indeed a pronounced increase in ice velocity close to the grounding line. However, this effect does not significantly propagate upstream towards the internal portions of the ice sheet and rapidly decays with time. Therefore, the ice sheet is almost unaffected by flow perturbations induced by the disintegration of the ice shelf.

Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5±46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

A Multidecadal Analysis of Föhn Winds over Larsen C Ice Shelf from a Combination of Observations and Modeling

The southward progression of ice shelf collapse in the Antarctic Peninsula is partially attributed to a strengthening of the circumpolar westerlies and the associated increase in föhn conditions over its eastern ice shelves. We used observations from an automatic weather station at Cabinet Inlet on the northern Larsen C ice shelf between 25 November 2014 and 31 December 2016 to describe föhn dynamics. Observed föhn frequency was compared to the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2.3p2, run over the Antarctic Peninsula at 5.5-km horizontal resolution. A föhn identification scheme based on observed wind conditions was employed to check for model biases in föhn representation. Seasonal variation in total föhn event duration was resolved with sufficient skill. The analysis was extended to the model period (1979–2016) to obtain a multidecadal perspective of föhn occurrence over Larsen C ice shelf. Föhn occurrence at Cabinet Inlet strongly correlates with near-surface air temperature, and both are found to relate strongly to the location and strength of the Amundsen Sea Low. Furthermore, we demonstrated that föhn occurrence over Larsen C ice shelf shows high variability in space and time.

A Mathematical Model of Melt Lake Development on an Ice Shelf

AbstractThe accumulation of surface meltwater on ice shelves can lead to the formation of melt lakes. Melt lakes have been implicated in ice shelf collapse; Antarctica's Larsen B Ice Shelf was observed to have a large amount of surface melt lakes present preceding its collapse in 2002. Such collapse can affect ocean circulation and temperature, cause habitat loss and contribute to sea level rise through the acceleration of tributary glaciers. We present a mathematical model of a surface melt lake on an idealized ice shelf. The model incorporates a calculation of the ice shelf surface energy balance, heat transfer through the firn, the production and percolation of meltwater into the firn, the formation of ice lenses, and the development and refreezing of surface melt lakes. The model is applied to the Larsen C Ice Shelf, where melt lakes have been observed. This region has warmed several times the global average over the last century and the Larsen C firn layer could become saturated with meltwater by the end of the century. When forced with weather station data, our model produces surface melting, meltwater accumulation, and melt lake development consistent with observations. We examine the sensitivity of lake formation to uncertain parameters and provide evidence of the importance of processes such as lateral meltwater transport. We conclude that melt lakes impact surface melt and firn density and warrant inclusion in dynamic‐thermodynamic models of ice shelf evolution within climate models, of which our model could form the basis for the thermodynamic component.

The Paris warming targets: emissions requirements and sea level consequences

The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 °C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2 °C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5 °C target, CO2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4 °C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5 °C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 °C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 °C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 °C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries.

Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

AbstractIce shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High‐resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km‐wide and 60 km‐long channel extending from the ice shelf's grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt‐driven sub‐ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.

Rapid drawdown of Antarctica's Wordie Ice Shelf glaciers in response to ENSO/Southern Annular Mode-driven warming in the Southern Ocean

Here we investigate the largest acceleration in ice flow across all of Antarctica between ∼2008 InSAR and 2014 Landsat velocity mappings. This occurred in glaciers that used to feed into the Wordie Ice Shelf on the west Antarctic Peninsula, which rapidly disintegrated in ∼1989. Between 2008 and 2014, these glaciers experienced at least a threefold increase in surface elevation drawdown relative to the 2002–2008 time period. After ∼20 yrs of relative stability, it is unlikely that the ice shelf collapse played a role in the large response. Instead, we find that the rapid acceleration and surface drawdown is linked to enhanced melting at the ice-ocean boundary, attributable to changes in winds driven by global atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM), linking changes in grounded ice to atmospheric-driven ocean warming.

On the influence of post-LGM ice shelf loss and grounding zone sedimentation on West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The Whales Deep Basin in eastern Ross Sea was occupied by the paleo-Bindschadler Ice Stream during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Previous studies showed that megascale glacial lineations (MSGLs) extend to the continental shelf edge. In a landward direction, these lineations are buried by an overlapping stack of backstepped grounding zone wedges (GZWs). The constraints require that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) grounded at least seven times within 60km of the shelf edge but the morphological relationships in the Whales Deep Basin cannot be used to uniquely reveal the magnitudes of either grounding line and/or calving front retreat and re-advance between the successive groundings. Here we show a new regional transect of cores from the basin which demonstrates that there were no major back and forth oscillations of either the grounding line or calving front during the overall retreat of grounded and floating ice. Instead, the new sedimentologic data show that a small ice shelf formed as the grounding line retreated from the shelf edge and backstepped over the outer continental shelf. An event bed records breakup of the ice shelf that covered the outer shelf. The stratal relationships indicate that the ice-shelf collapse occurred during the fourth grounding and that the grounding line remained on the outer continental shelf for three additional groundings. We infer that accelerated ice stream flow (due to loss of buttressing) increased sediment flux to the grounding line and thinned the WAIS at the grounding line. Following the seventh grounding, thinning contributed to an abrupt 200km retreat of the grounding line to the middle continental shelf and a large ice shelf re-formed over the middle continental shelf. A series of small-scale moraine ridges formed as the grounding line shifted south towards Roosevelt Island. The facies relationships on the middle continental shelf indicate that the calving front then shifted abruptly to its modern position. The ground-truth of the seafloor geomorphology presented here is important because it is a necessary framework for constraining retreat chronology for a central part of the WAIS that was not influenced by East Antarctic Ice Sheet overflow.