Abstract
AbstractIncreasing surface melt has been implicated in the collapse of several Antarctic ice shelves over the last few decades, including the collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf over a period of just a few weeks in 2002. The speed at which an ice shelf disintegrates strongly determines the subsequent loss of grounded ice and sea level rise, but the controls on collapse speed are not well understood. Here we show, using a novel cellular automaton model, that there is an intrinsic speed limit on ice shelf collapse through cascades of interacting melt pond hydrofracture events. Though collapse speed increases with the area of hydrofracture influence, the typical flexural length scales of Antarctic ice shelves ensure that hydrofracture interactions remain localized. We argue that the speed at which Larsen B Ice Shelf collapsed was caused by a season of anomalously high surface meltwater production.
Highlights
Ice shelves are the floating portions of ice sheets that modulate ice flow towards the ocean
We conclude from the case of Larsen B Ice Shelf (LBIS) that rapid ice shelf collapse is probably most likely to occur in response to a high rate of surface melt forcing, rather than the internal dynamics of the hydrofracturing melt pond network, which we have shown is speed-limited
That except in special circumstances, rapid ice shelf collapse can only be caused by a correspondingly rapid increase in meltwater production
Summary
Ice shelf melt ponds draining through hydrofracture may influence one another through fracturing. Localized area of hydrofracture influence limits the speed of ice shelf collapse High speed of Larsen B collapse was likely due to anomalously high surface melt, not fracture speed
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