Ice Shelf Collapse Research Articles

On the influence of post-LGM ice shelf loss and grounding zone sedimentation on West Antarctic ice sheet stability

The Whales Deep Basin in eastern Ross Sea was occupied by the paleo-Bindschadler Ice Stream during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Previous studies showed that megascale glacial lineations (MSGLs) extend to the continental shelf edge. In a landward direction, these lineations are buried by an overlapping stack of backstepped grounding zone wedges (GZWs). The constraints require that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) grounded at least seven times within 60km of the shelf edge but the morphological relationships in the Whales Deep Basin cannot be used to uniquely reveal the magnitudes of either grounding line and/or calving front retreat and re-advance between the successive groundings. Here we show a new regional transect of cores from the basin which demonstrates that there were no major back and forth oscillations of either the grounding line or calving front during the overall retreat of grounded and floating ice. Instead, the new sedimentologic data show that a small ice shelf formed as the grounding line retreated from the shelf edge and backstepped over the outer continental shelf. An event bed records breakup of the ice shelf that covered the outer shelf. The stratal relationships indicate that the ice-shelf collapse occurred during the fourth grounding and that the grounding line remained on the outer continental shelf for three additional groundings. We infer that accelerated ice stream flow (due to loss of buttressing) increased sediment flux to the grounding line and thinned the WAIS at the grounding line. Following the seventh grounding, thinning contributed to an abrupt 200km retreat of the grounding line to the middle continental shelf and a large ice shelf re-formed over the middle continental shelf. A series of small-scale moraine ridges formed as the grounding line shifted south towards Roosevelt Island. The facies relationships on the middle continental shelf indicate that the calving front then shifted abruptly to its modern position. The ground-truth of the seafloor geomorphology presented here is important because it is a necessary framework for constraining retreat chronology for a central part of the WAIS that was not influenced by East Antarctic Ice Sheet overflow.

Rapid ice unloading in the Fleming Glacier region, southern Antarctic Peninsula, and its effect on bedrock uplift rates

Rapid regional warming in the Antarctic Peninsula has led to the significant retreat and eventual collapse of several major ice shelves since the 1970s, triggering the subsequent acceleration and thinning of their feeding glaciers. The Wordie Ice Shelf, lying off the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula, has undergone long-term disintegration since the 1960s with a substantial calving event occurring around 1989, followed by continuous steady retreat and its almost-complete disappearance. The dynamic response of the upstream glaciers to the ice shelf collapse and the response of the solid Earth to the associated mass loss are not fully understood. To quantify the mass loss from the system, we generated a digital elevation model (DEM) using airborne vertical and oblique imagery from 1966 and compared it to a DEM derived from 2008 SPOT data. This analysis reveals lowering over that time of approximately 60 m at the front of Fleming Glacier. Using IceBridge and ICESat-2/GLAS data spanning 2002–2014, we show an increased rate of mean ice-surface lowering, with rates post-2008 more than twice those of 2002–2008. We use these load change data as a basis for the simulation of viscoelastic solid Earth deformation. We subtract modeled elastic deformation rates, and a suite of modeled viscous rates, from GPS-derived three-dimensional bedrock velocities at sites to the south of Fleming Glacier to infer properties of Earth rheology. Assuming the pre-breakup bedrock uplift was positive due to post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice retreat, our viscoelastic-corrected GPS uplift rates suggest upper mantle viscosities are >2×1019 Pas and likely >1×1020 Pas in this region, 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than previously found for the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Horizontal velocities at the GPS site nearest the Fleming Glacier, after the application of elastic and plate tectonic corrections, point away from Marguerite Bay rather than the present glacier front. This suggests that horizontal motion in the region reflects the earlier retreat of the glacier system following the LGM, compatible with a relatively strong mantle in this region. These findings highlight the need for improved understanding of ice load changes in this region through the late Holocene in order to accurately model glacial isostatic adjustment.

Palaeoclimatology: Ice-sheet history revealed by fossils.

Microscopic fossils show that, from 10,400 to 7,500 years ago, upwelling of a water mass called Circumpolar Deep Water destabilized Antarctic ice shelves — a finding that advances our understanding of ice-sheet retreat. See Article p.43 The wind-driven upwelling of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) may be destabilizing Antarctic ice shelves, particularly in the region bordering the Amundsen Sea. However, firm evidence that these ice–ocean interactions can persist long enough to cause substantial changes to ice sheets has been lacking. Here, Claus-Dieter Hillenbrand et al. present marine-based palaeoclimate evidence to show that over much of the early Holocene epoch, and since the 1940s, variations in the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds increased the upwelling of CDW. This seemingly led to widespread deglaciations in the region and perhaps even a large ice-shelf collapse. The results confirm that the processes that have long been seen in models were operational in the past.

West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by Holocene warm water incursions.

Glaciological and oceanographic observations coupled with numerical models show that warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling onto the West Antarctic continental shelf causes melting of the undersides of floating ice shelves. Because these ice shelves buttress glaciers feeding into them, their ocean-induced thinning is driving Antarctic ice-sheet loss today. Here we present the first multi-proxy data based reconstruction of variability in CDW inflow to the Amundsen Sea sector, the most vulnerable part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, during the last 11,000 years. The chemical composition of foraminifer shells and benthic foraminifer assemblages in marine sediments indicate that enhanced CDW upwelling, controlled by the latitudinal position of the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds, forced deglaciation of this sector both until 7,500 years ago, when an ice-shelf collapse may have caused rapid ice-sheet thinning further upstream, and since the 1940s. These results increase confidence in the predictive capability of current ice-sheet models.

Regional climate of the Larsen B embayment 1980–2014

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the climate response of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet is vital for accurate predictions of sea-level rise. However, since climate models are typically too coarse to capture spatial variability in local scale meteorological processes, our ability to study specific sectors has been limited by the local fidelity of such models and the (often sparse) availability of observations. We show that a high-resolution (5.5 km × 5.5 km) version of a regional climate model (RACMO2.3) can reproduce observed interannual variability in the Larsen B embayment sufficiently to enable its use in investigating long-term changes in this sector. Using the model, together with automatic weather station data, we confirm previous findings that the year of the Larsen B ice shelf collapse (2001/02) was a strong melt year, but discover that total annual melt production was in fact ~30% lower than 2 years prior. While the year before collapse exhibited the lowest melting and highest snowfall during 1980–2014, the ice shelf was likely pre-conditioned for collapse by a series of strong melt years in the 1990s. Melt energy has since returned to pre-1990s levels, which likely explains the lack of further significant collapse in the region (e.g. of SCAR Inlet).

Widespread movement of meltwater onto and across Antarctic ice shelves.

Surface meltwater drains across ice sheets, forming melt ponds that can trigger ice-shelf collapse, acceleration of grounded ice flow and increased sea-level rise. Numerical models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet that incorporate meltwater's impact on ice shelves, but ignore the movement of water across the ice surface, predict a metre of global sea-level rise this century in response to atmospheric warming. To understand the impact of water moving across the ice surface a broad quantification of surface meltwater and its drainage is needed. Yet, despite extensive research in Greenland and observations of individual drainage systems in Antarctica, we have little understanding of Antarctic-wide surface hydrology or how it will evolve. Here we show widespread drainage of meltwater across the surface of the ice sheet through surface streams and ponds (hereafter 'surface drainage') as far south as 85° S and as high as 1,300 metres above sea level. Our findings are based on satellite imagery from 1973 onwards and aerial photography from 1947 onwards. Surface drainage has persisted for decades, transporting water up to 120 kilometres from grounded ice onto and across ice shelves, feeding vast melt ponds up to 80 kilometres long. Large-scale surface drainage could deliver water to areas of ice shelves vulnerable to collapse, as melt rates increase this century. While Antarctic surface melt ponds are relatively well documented on some ice shelves, we have discovered that ponds often form part of widespread, large-scale surface drainage systems. In a warming climate, enhanced surface drainage could accelerate future ice-mass loss from Antarctic, potentially via positive feedbacks between the extent of exposed rock, melting and thinning of the ice sheet.

Antarctic ice shelf potentially stabilized by export of meltwater in surface river

Meltwater stored in ponds and crevasses can weaken and fracture ice shelves, triggering their rapid disintegration. This ice-shelf collapse results in an increased flux of ice from adjacent glaciers and ice streams, thereby raising sea level globally. However, surface rivers forming on ice shelves could potentially export stored meltwater and prevent its destructive effects. Here we present evidence for persistent active drainage networks-interconnected streams, ponds and rivers-on the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica that export a large fraction of the ice shelf's meltwater into the ocean. We find that active drainage has exported water off the ice surface through waterfalls and dolines for more than a century. The surface river terminates in a 130-metre-wide waterfall that can export the entire annual surface melt over the course of seven days. During warmer melt seasons, these drainage networks adapt to changing environmental conditions by remaining active for longer and exporting more water. Similar networks are present on the ice shelf in front of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, but other systems, such as on the Larsen C and Amery Ice Shelves, retain surface water at present. The underlying reasons for export versus retention remain unclear. Nonetheless our results suggest that, in a future warming climate, surface rivers could export melt off the large ice shelves surrounding Antarctica-contrary to present Antarctic ice-sheet models, which assume that meltwater is stored on the ice surface where it triggers ice-shelf disintegration.

The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback

AbstractWe use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to forecast how the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recently observed rates of submarine melting. In these simulations, we isolate the effects of a positive feedback, driven by submarine melt in new ocean cavities flooded during retreat, by allowing the present climate, calving front and melting beneath existing ice shelves to persist over the 21st century. Even without additional forcing from changes in climate, ice shelf collapse, or ice cliff collapse, the model predicts slow, sustained retreat of West Antarctica, driven by the marine ice sheet instability and current levels of ocean‐driven melting. When observed rates of melting are included in new subglacial ocean cavities, the simulated sea level contribution increases, and for sufficiently intense melting it accelerates over time. Conditional Bayesian probabilities for sea level contributions can be derived but will require improved predictions of ocean heat delivery.

Tracking of the iceberg created by the Nansen Ice Shelf collapse

ABSTRACTThis article presents an analysis of the drifting path of one of the two giant icebergs created from the Nansen Ice Shelf (NIS) collapse of 7 April 2016. The study was carried out using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of Sentinel-1 satellite. Six SAR images, captured after the collapse from 9 April to 12 May, were retrieved from the European Space Agency Scientific Data Hub and remapped onto an equidistant cylindrical projection. A processing scheme was implemented which consists of the following steps: (1) speckle filtering, (2) binary segmentation, and (3) iceberg centroid detection. The final result is the tracking of the iceberg, with its relative velocity, at the different time intervals.

Meltwater produced by wind–albedo interaction stored in an East Antarctic ice shelf

Surface melt has been tied to the collapse of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves. This study illustrates that warmer temperatures associated with katabatic winds drive similar processes in an East Antarctic ice shelf, highlighting vulnerability to disintegration.

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. In this paper, the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. An ice-sheet model forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs), in response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), projects AP contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers (∼8–18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ∼70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Changes in ice-shelf buttressing following the collapse of Larsen A Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the resulting impact on tributaries

ABSTRACTThe dominant mass-loss process on the Antarctic Peninsula has been ice-shelf collapse, including the Larsen A Ice Shelf in early 1995. Following this collapse, there was rapid speed up and thinning of its tributary glaciers. We model the impact of this ice-shelf collapse on upstream tributaries, and compare with observations using new datasets of surface velocity and ice thickness. Using a two-horizontal-dimension shallow shelf approximation model, we are able to replicate the observed large increase in surface velocity that occurred within Drygalski Glacier, Antarctic Peninsula. The model results show an instantaneous twofold increase in flux across the grounding line, caused solely from the reduction in backstress through ice shelf removal. This demonstrates the importance of ice-shelf buttressing for flow upstream of the grounding line and highlights the need to explicitly include lateral stresses when modelling real-world settings. We hypothesise that further increases in velocity and flux observed since the ice-shelf collapse result from transient mass redistribution effects. Reproducing these effects poses the next, more stringent test of glacier and ice-sheet modelling studies.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors’ valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets’ views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

A constitutive framework for predicting weakening and reduced buttressing of ice shelves based on observations of the progressive deterioration of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf

AbstractThe increasing contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise is linked to reductions in ice shelf buttressing, driven in large part by basal melting of ice shelves. These ocean‐driven buttressing losses are being compounded as ice shelves weaken and fracture. To date, model projections of ice sheet evolution have not accounted for weakening ice shelves. Here we present the first constitutive framework for ice deformation that explicitly includes mechanical weakening, based on observations of the progressive degradation of the remnant Larsen B Ice Shelf from 2000 to 2015. We implement this framework in an ice sheet model and are able to reproduce most of the observed weakening of the ice shelf. In addition to predicting ice shelf weakening and reduced buttressing, this new framework opens the door for improved understanding and predictions of iceberg calving, meltwater routing and hydrofracture, and ice shelf collapse.

Widespread collapse of the Ross Ice Shelf during the late Holocene

The stability of modern ice shelves is threatened by atmospheric and oceanic warming. The geologic record of formerly glaciated continental shelves provides a window into the past of how ice shelves responded to a warming climate. Fields of deep (-560 m), linear iceberg furrows on the outer, western Ross Sea continental shelf record an early post-Last Glacial Maximum episode of ice-shelf collapse that was followed by continuous retreat of the grounding line for ∼200 km. Runaway grounding line conditions culminated once the ice became pinned on shallow banks in the western Ross Sea. This early episode of ice-shelf collapse is not observed in the eastern Ross Sea, where more episodic grounding line retreat took place. More widespread (∼280,000 km(2)) retreat of the ancestral Ross Ice Shelf occurred during the late Holocene. This event is recorded in sediment cores by a shift from terrigenous glacimarine mud to diatomaceous open-marine sediment as well as an increase in radiogenic beryllium ((10)Be) concentrations. The timing of ice-shelf breakup is constrained by compound specific radiocarbon ages, the first application of this technique systematically applied to Antarctic marine sediments. Breakup initiated around 5 ka, with the ice shelf reaching its current configuration ∼1.5 ka. In the eastern Ross Sea, the ice shelf retreated up to 100 km in about a thousand years. Three-dimensional thermodynamic ice-shelf/ocean modeling results and comparison with ice-core records indicate that ice-shelf breakup resulted from combined atmospheric warming and warm ocean currents impinging onto the continental shelf.

Extreme Phenotypic Plasticity in Metabolic Physiology of Antarctic Demosponges

Seasonal measurements of the metabolic physiology of four Antarctic demosponges and their associated assemblages, maintained in a flow through aquarium facility, demonstrated one of the largest differences in seasonal strategies between species and their associated sponge communities. The sponge oxygen consumption measured here exhibited both the lowest and highest seasonal changes for any Antarctic species; metabolic rates varied from a 25% decrease to a 5.8 fold increase from winter to summer, a range which was greater than all 17 Antarctic marine species (encompassing 8 phyla) previously investigated and amongst the highest recorded for any marine environment. The differences in nitrogen excretion, metabolic substrate utilisation and tissue composition between species were, overall, greater than seasonal changes. The largest seasonal difference in tissue composition was an increase in CHN (Carbon, Hydrogen and Nitrogen) content in Homaxinella balfourensis, a pioneer species in ice-scour regions, which changed growth form to a twig-like morph in winter. The considerable flexibility in seasonal and metabolic physiology across the Demospongiae likely enables these species to respond to rapid environmental change such as ice-scour, reductions in sea ice cover and ice-shelf collapse in the Polar Regions, shifting the paradigm that polar sponges always live “life in the slow lane”. Great phenotypic plasticity in physiology has been linked to differences in symbiotic community composition, and this is likely to be a key factor in the global success of sponges in all marine environments and their dominant role in many climax communities.

Community dynamics of nematodes after Larsen ice-shelf collapse in the eastern Antarctic Peninsula.

Free-living marine nematode communities of the Larsen B embayment at the eastern Antarctic Peninsula were investigated to provide insights on their response and colonization rate after large-scale ice-shelf collapse. This study compares published data on the post-collapse situation from 2007 with new material from 2011, focusing on two locations in the embayment that showed highly divergent communities in 2007 and that are characterized by a difference in timing of ice-shelf breakup. Data from 2007 exposed a more diverse community at outer station B.South, dominated by the genus Microlaimus. On the contrary, station B.West in the inner part of Larsen B was poor in both numbers of individuals and genera, with dominance of a single Halomonhystera species. Re-assessment of the situation in 2011 showed that communities at both stations diverged even more, due to a drastic increase in Halomonhystera at B.West compared to relatively little change at B.South. On a broader geographical scale, it seems that B.South gradually starts resembling other Antarctic shelf communities, although the absence of the genus Sabatieria and the high abundance of Microlaimus still set it apart nine years after the main Larsen B collapse. In contrast, thriving of Halomonhystera at B.West further separates its community from other Antarctic shelf areas.

Modeling ice dynamic contributions to sea level rise from the Antarctic Peninsula

AbstractThe future ice dynamical contribution to sea level rise (SLR) from 199 ice shelf nourishing drainage basins of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet is simulated, using the British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model. Simulations of the grounded ice sheet include response to ice shelf collapse, estimated by tracking thermal ice shelf viability limits in 14 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global climate models ensemble temperature projections. Grounding line retreat in response to ice shelf collapse is parameterized with a new multivariate linear regression model utilizing a range of glaciological and geometric predictor variables. Multimodel means project SLR up to 9.4 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2200, and up to 19 mm SLE by 2300. Rates of SLR from individual drainage basins throughout the peninsula are similar to 2100, yet diverge between 2100 and 2300 due to individual basin characteristics. Major contributors to SLR are the outlet glaciers feeding southern George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for >75% of total SLR in some model runs. Ice sheet thinning induced by ice‐shelf removal is large (up to ∼500 m), especially in Palmer Land in the southern Antarctic Peninsula, and may propagate as far as 135 km inland. These results emphasize the importance of the ice dynamical contribution to future sea level of the APIS on decadal to centennial timescales.

Divergent trajectories of Antarctic surface melt under two twenty-first-century climate scenarios

Ice shelves modulate Antarctica’s contributions to sea-level rise. Regional-climate-model simulations and observations suggest historical ice melt intensification before collapse of Antarctic peninsula shelves, and project future melt evolution. Ice shelves modulate Antarctic contributions to sea-level rise1 and thereby represent a critical, climate-sensitive interface between the Antarctic ice sheet and the global ocean. Following rapid atmospheric warming over the past decades2,3, Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves have progressively retreated4, at times catastrophically5. This decay supports hypotheses of thermal limits of viability for ice shelves via surface melt forcing3,5,6. Here we use a polar-adapted regional climate model7 and satellite observations8 to quantify the nonlinear relationship between surface melting and summer air temperature. Combining observations and multimodel simulations, we examine melt evolution and intensification before observed ice shelf collapse on the Antarctic Peninsula. We then assess the twenty-first-century evolution of surface melt across Antarctica under intermediate and high emissions climate scenarios. Our projections reveal a scenario-independent doubling of Antarctic-wide melt by 2050. Between 2050 and 2100, however, significant divergence in melt occurs between the two climate scenarios. Under the high emissions pathway by 2100, melt on several ice shelves approaches or surpasses intensities that have historically been associated with ice shelf collapse, at least on the northeast Antarctic Peninsula.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.