Ice Regime Research Articles

Winter thermal and ice regimes of small Karelian lakes against the background of regional climatic variability

This article investigates regularities of thermal and ice regimes of three small lakes of Karelia under current climatic conditions. Data of measurements of water temperature at autonomous stations and results of numerical calculations of the dates of ice-on and ice-off and the thickness of ice in these lakes using the one-dimensional parameterized model FLake in the anomalously warm winter season of 2019-2020 are analyzed. Data obtained are compared with long-term values over 1994-2019. The dates of the ice-on and ice-off on the lakes were quite close; however, on two larger lakes, intermediate ice destruction was observed at the beginning of winter, due to which the duration of the ice season differed between lakes by two weeks. The winter months of 2019-2020 were 6.4-9.4 ° C warmer than the baseline, which was reflected in a noticeably smaller ice thickness on the lakes compared to previous years of measurements (40-48 cm at the end of March 2020 compared to the values ​​in mid-April in 1994-2004 - 65-85 cm and in 2005-2018 - 50-65 cm). The decrease in ice thickness contributed to an early onset (mid-March) and long duration (more than five weeks) of spring subglacial convection. The model calculation, taking into account the atmospheric impact based on the ERA-5 re-analysis, reproduced the main features of the ice regime of the lakes, including the intermediate destruction of ice at the beginning of winter on two larger lakes. Significant regression relationships have been obtained between the dates of ice-on and ice-off on Lake Vendyurskoe, the dates of the onset and duration of spring under-ice convection, and the characteristics of the regional climate of southern Karelia (air temperature and the number of days with thaw in winter and spring months) for 1994-2020. The relationship between the dates of ice-on and the water temperature in the lake in winter is shown.

Гидрометеорологические опасные природные явления Северного Каспия в зимний период на фоне климатических изменений

Hydrometeorological hazards of the Northern Caspian during the winter periods 1950–2020—due to climatic changes were investigated. Hydrometeorological hazards for the period 1950–2020 are considered: severe winter periods, early ice freeze-up, storm waves, wind surge, as well as cumulative hydrometeorological hazards—combinations of storm waves and surge. Geographic information system (GIS) “Ice regime of the southern seas of Russia” is the information basis for the study of the ice regime of the Caspian Sea. Storm activity in the Caspian Sea were reconstructed using SWAN spectral wave model. Based on the cumulative freezing-degree days winters were divided by severity—mild, moderate and severe. During the study period, moderate types of winters prevail (59.4 %), and the number of severe and mild winters is the same and amounts to 14 pcs. (20.3 %) of each type. Due to climate change, the number of mild winters is increasing, and the number of severe ones is decreasing. Since 1985, 3 severe winters (2002/03, 2007/08, 2011/12) have been recorded. As a result, the ice cover area decreased by ∼7–10 %, and the duration of the ice season at the observation point Peshnoy was reduced by 5 days. 157 situations of combinations of storm surge and storm waves are identified: 140 are cases of potential situations of cumulative phenomena of a combination of storm and surge phenomena with a speed of 15 m/s or more of winds of effective directions. The largest number of cases of cumulative dangerous hydrometeorological hazards with a wind speed of more than 15 m/s is observed in March. After the 2000s there was an increase in the number of cases and duration of dangerous hydrometeorological hazards in November and March. A direct relationship between the number of cases of cumulative dangerous hydrometeorological hazards and the severity of winters has not been found.

Climate change influence on the levels and trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and chemicals of emerging Arctic concern (CEACs) in the Arctic physical environment - a review.

Climate change brings about significant changes in the physical environment in the Arctic. Increasing temperatures, sea ice retreat, slumping permafrost, changing sea ice regimes, glacial loss and changes in precipitation patterns can all affect how contaminants distribute within the Arctic environment and subsequently impact the Arctic ecosystems. In this review, we summarized observed evidence of the influence of climate change on contaminant circulation and transport among various Arctic environment media, including air, ice, snow, permafrost, fresh water and the marine environment. We have also drawn on parallel examples observed in Antarctica and the Tibetan Plateau, to broaden the discussion on how climate change may influence contaminant fate in similar cold-climate ecosystems. Significant knowledge gaps on indirect effects of climate change on contaminants in the Arctic environment, including those of extreme weather events, increase in forests fires, and enhanced human activities leading to new local contaminant emissions, have been identified. Enhanced mobilization of contaminants to marine and freshwater ecosystems has been observed as a result of climate change, but better linkages need to be made between these observed effects with subsequent exposure and accumulation of contaminants in biota. Emerging issues include those of Arctic contamination by microplastics and higher molecular weight halogenated natural products (hHNPs) and the implications of such contamination in a changing Arctic environment is explored.

The Ice-Regime of the Danube and Winter Crossing Over Rivers in the Early Modern Times (1529–1650)

The aim of this paper is to show the potential of study of private correspondence both in the reconstruction of past weather and climate on the one hand, and on the other in presenting some elements of the ice-regime of the Danube in the early modern period with its possible historical climate implications. The paper shows the results of the study of more than 10,000 private letters from the period between 1529 and 1650. The investigation resulted in dozens of previously unknown mentions of the presence of ice in the upper section of the Danube in the Carpathian Basin. Based upon this, it is possible to show some extremely cold or lasting winters and also to derive some general characteristics of the winters of the period. The paper shows that it is likely that the Danube froze over more frequently in the early modern period than it has done in the modern (instrumental) period which, amongst other reasons (human intervention in particular), could be attributable to change in the natural climatic conditions. Overall, the 120 years studied are considered a characteristically cold period of the Little Ice Age and it may be of primary importance to demonstrate similar climatic trends in the fluctuation of winter average temperatures in the Carpathian Basin and neighboring territories (Austria, Bohemia, Bavaria, and so forth). Apart from showing the potential of the study of the ice regime of rivers in reconstructing the past winter climates of the Carpathian Basin, the paper shows the need for the study of under-investigated types of evidence to gain historical environmental data.

Regime shift in sea-ice characteristics and impact on the spring bloom in the Baltic Sea

We evaluated the temporal and spatial trends of the hydrological (temperature and sea ice) and biochemical (chlorophyll-a concentration) characteristics in springtime in the Baltic Sea. Both are strongly affected by climate change, resulting in a decrease in the duration of sea-ice melting in the previous decade. A new regime of sea ice began in 2008 and in all basins of the Baltic Sea, a rapid warming during spring could be detected. Using satellite data, the temporal and spatial variations in spring bloom were analysed during severe and warmer winters. Using a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model, we tested the response of spring bloom to the changing ice conditions. The results of the modelling indicated that the presence of ice significantly influences the predicted chlorophyll-a concentration values in the Baltic Sea. Therefore, it is necessary that any coupled model system has a realistic ice model to ensure the best simulation results for the lower trophic food web as well.

Опыт разработки методики долгосрочного прогноза сроков вскрытия ото льда рек бассейна р. Вятки

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Опыт разработки методики долгосрочного прогноза сроков вскрытия ото льда рек бассейна р. Вятки

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Deformation of an ice pack influenced by waves and topographic enhancement of tidal motion near Hopen Island in the Barents Sea

Understanding the physical mechanisms behind the deformation of pack ice floes is important for understanding the dynamics of the local ice regime, and for the calibration and validation of ice dynamics models. In April 2017, six Iridium satellite-tracking beacons were deployed on six pack ice floes in the Barents Sea south of Svalbard in the Norwegian Arctic. The ice tracker deployment was performed as part of an offshore research expedition carried out onboard the Research Vessel (RV) Polarsyssel to characterize the local sea ice environment. In addition to the ice tracker deployments, an anemometer beacon, a wave beacon, and an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) were deployed on a drifting ice floe to which the vessel was moored for nearly three days, and extensive thickness, salinity, and density measurements were made. The wave beacon recorded the vertical acceleration of the floe so that wave forcing on the floe drift could be estimated. The in-situ wind, ocean current, wave, and ice thickness and density measurements permitted the estimation of met-ocean forcings on the acceleration of the ice floe. On April 28, two days after the last ice tracker was deployed on April 26, the six tracked ice floes rapidly dispersed just to the west-southwest of Hopen Island. The dispersion of the ice floes was dominated by strong shearing within the local ice pack, coinciding with a rapid increase in the speeds of the local tidal currents, which was soon followed by a rapid increase in the wave energy. Each of the six tracked ice floes increased their observed drift speeds in sync with the increase in the local tidal current speeds at different times for each floe, but at approximately the same decrease in water depth as they reached the northern edge of Spitsbergen Bank. The rapid increase in the tidal currents was linked to the topographic enhancement of tidal motion near Hopen Island in the shallower waters of Spitsbergen Bank. The wind and wave measurements made by the anemometer and wave beacons and ice tracker left on the ice floe to which the vessel was moored allowed for an estimate of the relative strength of the wind, tidal, and wave forcings on the local ice field. The results showed that the tidal currents initially dominated the dynamic response of the local ice field compared to the wind, which led to the conclusion that the enhanced tidal current was ultimately the dominant cause of the initial dispersion of the local pack ice field on April 28, and the dispersion was then further enhanced by the increase in wave energy.

Probability assessment of possible ice encounters during the petroleum hydrocarbons transportation in the Sea of Okhotsk

The increase in freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route necessitates the study of the ice regime of the freezing seas of Russia, including the Far Eastern ones (Bering Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan). This paper, on the basis of the analysis of the Sea of Okhotsk’s ice cover and the location of the edges of the Sea of Okhotsk’s ice massif, evaluates the probability of an encounter with ice for the ships in transit during cargo transportation on the Northern Sea Route through the Far Eastern seas along two basic routes from the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula: 1) traverse Cape Lopatka–Sea of Okhotsk–La Perouse Strait; 2) traverse Cape Lopatka–Sangarsky Strait. It was shown that at the stage of ice cover maximum development in the Sea of Okhotsk (February-March), route No. 2 was the most adequate and the safest for ships of ice class Arc4 and below. The section of route No. 1 with a 70 % ice encounter probability was 421 km long in February and 382 km long in March. That section of the route was dominated by very cohesive first-year thin ice up to 70 cm thick with inclusions of first-year ice of average thickness (up to 120 cm).

Comparative analyses of changes in the ice cover of the Tatar Strait in relation to 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 climate normals

Current warming in the Northern Hemisphere has encompassed not only the surface atmosphere, but also manifested itself in a change in the state of the sea ice cover, as an integral part of the climate system. One of the indicators of the warming was a reduction in ice cover observed in the water area of the Far Eastern seas since the late 1980s. The prospective areas of hydrocarbon deposits discovered in the Tatar Strait, as well as the existing needs for the transportation of hydrocarbons along the shipping routes in the strait, led to the emerging interest in researching the ice regime of the Sea of Japan in the modern climatic era. The proposed paper analyses the changes in ice cover of the Tatar Strait in relation to 1961–1990 and 1991–2020 climate normals. The regularities of the long-term variability of ice cover within non-overlapping 30-year periods were revealed. The analysis of the dynamics of ice cover anomalies, calculated for each normal separately, was carried out. An assessment of the distribution of winter types in the periods under study was carried out. The characteristic features of variations in the intra-seasonal course of ice cover and the dates of the onset of ice phases in different types of winters were identified.

InSAR Monitoring of Arctic Landfast Sea Ice Deformation Using L-Band ALOS-2, C-Band Radarsat-2 and Sentinel-1

Arctic amplification is accelerating changes in sea ice regimes in the Canadian Arctic with later freeze-up and earlier melt events, adversely affecting Arctic wildlife and communities that depend on the stability of sea ice conditions. To monitor both the rate and impact of such change, there is a need to accurately measure sea ice deformation, an important component for understanding ice motion and polar climate. The objective of this study is to determine the spatial-temporal pattern of deformation over landfast ice in the Arctic using time series SAR imagery. We present Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) monitoring of Arctic landfast sea ice deformation using C-band Radarsat-2, Sentinel-1 and L-band ALOS-2 in this paper. The small baseline subset (SBAS) approach was explored to process time series observations for retrieval of temporal deformation changes along a line-of-sight direction (LOS) over the winter. It was found that temporal and spatial patterns of deformation observed from different sensors were generally consistent. Horizontal and vertical deformations were also retrieved by a multi-dimensional SBAS technique using both ascending and descending Sentinel-1 observations. Results showed a horizontal deformation in the range of −95–85 cm, and vertical deformation in the range of −41–63 cm in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, Canada during February-April 2019. High coherence over ice from C-band was maintained over a shorter time interval of acquisitions than L-band due to temporal decorrelation.

Summer coastal rookeries and perspectives of the Baikal seal (Pusa sibirica) population in the conditions of the global warming

Based on the secondary literature, a retrospective characterization of the climate in the Baikal region, starting from the end of the Pleistocene, is given. According to satellite monitoring data, the characteristics of the ice regime of the Lake Baikal in the conditions of climate warming are presented. Moreover, we briefly discuss the impact of climate change on the ecology and biology of the Baikal seal (Pusa sibirica Gm.). Using video materials obtained online at one of the main island coastal rookeries of seals (on the island of Tonkyi, the archipelago of the Ushkany Islands, Lake Baikal) in 2011–2017, the dependence of the number of seals hauled out on the lake level and the peculiarities of the fishing regime was determined (the survey was conducted from May–June to October). A direct relationship was determined between the relative number of animals that had a moulting delay and the ice regime of a given year: the longer the floating ice in the northern part of Lake Baikal remained, the more numerous were the first approaches of seals to the studied rookery and the greater was the proportion of moulting individuals. It is reasonable to assume that the main reason for the Baikal seal to come ashore is not prolongued moulting time, but a physiological need for sunlight, which has a healing effect on the body of animals that lack solar radiation in winter. In general, climate warming has a negative impact on the state of the Baikal seal population. The available paleoclimatic reconstructions of the Holocene indicate that the population of the Baikal seal has experienced a lot of climate changes in its history. Nevertheless, if the current trends of climatic changes persist until the end of the 21st century, the ecology and biology of the seal will drastically change (up to the beginning of terrestrial reproduction), and the population will significantly decrease. However, the Baikal seal as a species would remain.

Summer coastal rookeries and perspectives of the Baikal seal (Pusa sibirica) population in the conditions of the global warming

Based on the secondary literature, a retrospective characterization of the climate in the Baikal region, starting from the end of the Pleistocene, is given. According to satellite monitoring data, the characteristics of the ice regime of the Lake Baikal in the conditions of climate warming are presented. Moreover, we briefly discuss the impact of climate change on the ecology and biology of the Baikal seal (Pusa sibirica Gm.). Using video materials obtained online at one of the main island coastal rookeries of seals (on the island of Tonkyi, the archipelago of the Ushkany Islands, Lake Baikal) in 2011–2017, the dependence of the number of seals hauled out on the lake level and the peculiarities of the fishing regime was determined (the survey was conducted from May–June to October). A direct relationship was determined between the relative number of animals that had a moulting delay and the ice regime of a given year: the longer the floating ice in the northern part of Lake Baikal remained, the more numerous were the first approaches of seals to the studied rookery and the greater was the proportion of moulting individuals. It is reasonable to assume that the main reason for the Baikal seal to come ashore is not prolongued moulting time, but a physiological need for sunlight, which has a healing effect on the body of animals that lack solar radiation in winter. In general, climate warming has a negative impact on the state of the Baikal seal population. The available paleoclimatic reconstructions of the Holocene indicate that the population of the Baikal seal has experienced a lot of climate changes in its history. Nevertheless, if the current trends of climatic changes persist until the end of the 21st century, the ecology and biology of the seal will drastically change (up to the beginning of terrestrial reproduction), and the population will significantly decrease. However, the Baikal seal as a species would remain.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЕ УСЛОВИЯ ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ ЗАТОРНО-ЗАЖОРНЫХ СКОПЛЕНИЙ В НИЖНЕМ БЬЕФЕ РЫБИНСКОЙ ГЭС

The paper presents the results of the analysis of conditions for the ice jam formation in the lower pool of the Rybinsk HPS in the winter of 2020, assesses changes in the characteristics of the ice and level regime in recent years, and makes recommendations for the organization of ice monitoring in the lower pool. The research materials were the field data, water levels, and ice conditions at hydrological posts, radar, and optical satellite images Sentinel 1 and 2.

A method for evaluating operational implications of regulatory constraints on Arctic shipping

Development of effective marine policy necessitates evidence-based, data-driven evaluations of the effects of regulatory constraints on operations. This is essential to better understand implications of policy decisions on complex socio-technical systems. This paper demonstrates a generalized methodology for evaluating operational implications associated with implementing maritime regulations. The method combines a ship performance model, regulatory constraint models, and multi-criteria pathfinding and optimization algorithms to evaluate and compare the operational implications of different regulatory constraints. The method is applied to Arctic shipping. The Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) and the Arctic Ice Regimes Shipping System (AIRSS) are considered. POLARIS and AIRSS are regulatory guidelines used to assign structural safety constraints on ships in ice. Four approaches for assigning structural safety constraints are modelled: 1) POLARIS, 2) AIRSS, 3) speed limits established through a first-principles ship-ice interaction model, and 4) navigation in the absence of structural safety constraints. Operational implications are measured as distance, voyage time, and fuel consumption. Route optimization is validated against expert opinion of Arctic ship captains. Results indicate AIRSS is the more conservative regulatory guideline, yet associated with decreased voyage time and fuel consumption. Implications for marine policy and safe navigation are that, while POLARIS offers flexibility to operate in more severe ice conditions, it increases voyage time, fuel consumption, and the risk of vessel damage. Competent Arctic seafarers are critical for safe and efficient operations. The generalized methodology provides marine policy-makers and industry stakeholders with a means to evaluate operational implications of maritime regulations.

Analysis of ice conditions of year-round navigation of Arc7 vessels in the southwestern part of the Kara Sea

Since 2006, a new generation of reinforced ice class Arc7 vessels has been operating on the Northern Sea Route. Safe and efficient sailing of this type of vessels in sea ice demands a detailed study of ice conditions. Accumulation and analysis of data on ice and hydrometeorological conditions for the entire Arctic in comparison with ice conditions along the route of vessels is an essential part of the development of optimal variants and optimal routes for ice navigation.The main aim of the study was to generalize the conditions of ice navigation of Norilskiy Nickel vessels along the optimal navigational routes in the south-western part of the Kara Sea. Based on the reports on sailing obtained from vessels of the “Norilskiy Nickel” type for the 2006–2014 period, we calculated the probability of choosing the optimal route along the Murmansk – Dudinka passage: through the Kara Gate Strait (seaward, central or coastal route) or the north of Cape Zhelaniya. During the year, vessels move predominantly through the Kara Gate. However, for three month per year, from April to June, the most appropriate route lies to the north of the Zhelaniya Cape. In April – May it is, on average, every second navigation, and in June – more than 80 % of all navigation. The features of the ice regime determining the choice of the specific navigation route, are described. The speeds of vessels of the “Norilskiy Nickel” type along various navigation routes in drifting sea ice of the Kara Sea are calculated. The fastest speed in drifting ice was recorded in the winter navigations of 2007–2008 and 2011–2012, in the January-May of these years the average speed was 10.2 and 11.2, correspondingly. The minimum speed in these years, even during the months of maximum ice cover growth, was not less than 4.8 knots. In other years, the average speeds were in the range of 9.2–9.8 knots. During the whole period of study, ice conditions that were extremely difficult for navigation formed three times: at the end of May 2009, at the end of March 2010 and in the middle of March 2011, these are considered in more detail in the present article.

ICE REGIME IMPACT ON THE COASTAL ZONE OF THE AZOV SEA

Azov is freezing sea it means that forecast of the time of the beginning and the end of ice fields formation needs. The ice condition limited of maritime safety. Modern condition of ice regime in the Azov Sea has been considered. The navigation of the Ukrainian ports Berdjansk and Mariupol depends on ice regime, duration and ice cover thickness. For the passage of vessels along the sea approach channels and recommended courses in the winter, the use of icebreakers is required. The demolition of confining buoys by ice fields and their restoration is reflected in the economic opportunities of the ports. Purpose of the article is to establish the characteristic winter periods of the last decade, taking into account the climatic changes for the rational using of the results of the impact on the economic activity of the marine infrastructure and hydrographic services. The specific purpose of this publication is to evaluate the displacement of the means of navigation equipment – buoys in the winter, taking into account meteorological factors. The authors set the following tasks: 1) to identify periods and vectors of buoys; 2) to define wind and ice characteristics in separate periods; 3) to reveal the basic meteorological cause of the movement of the buoys. It is important to note that there are no similar publications concerning this region. It became very actual after the climate change period was marked. The reserach is based on the data of direct and remote observations, the dates of ice formation in the area of seaports of Ukraine (Berdyansk and Mariupol) the characteristics of ice, the end of freezing, the opening and clearing of ice from the water areas of ports and bays and using the information from NAVTEX warning system, the archival materials of the weather site meteo.ua. The features of the physicochemical properties of sea water during ice formation and the general circulation of the waters of the Azov Sea are examined, which is linked with the influence of fresh runoff of Don and Kuban rivers. In the period 2013–2021 the observations were made on the displacement of navigation aids (buoys) during the winter periods from the approach channels of the port of Mariupol and Berdjansk as well as noticed buoys from the Azov-Don Marine Channel (Russian Federation). The characteristic of winter periods and conditions during the last decade are considered taking into account the influence of climatic changes. It is noted that the ice regime of the Sea of Azov is closely related with the sum of average daily air tem peratures over the sea for the season and wind power. According to this criterion, winters are usually divided into three types: severe, moderate and mild. Over the past 30 years, there were only two severe winters in the Azov Sea in 2005–2006 and 2011–2012. During these winters, the Azov Sea was completely ice covered. The influence of the ice regime to the coastal zone was examined, because it is very important for the industrial and economic needs of state building. To maintain the safety of navigation and reduce economic losses, it is necessary to consider the possibility of removing buoys, which are most often displaced by ice drift. Long-term average observations indicate the beginning of ice formation in Mariupol on December 14, and in Berdyansk on December 20. The Taganrog Bay and the ice accumulation areas are cleared of ice most recently – March 20–28. Under modern climatic changes (increasing the frequency of mild winters, actual costs for the operation of ships, hydrographic, icebreakers, etc.) are expected to be an order of magnitude lower than standard indicators.

Dissolved Oxygen in a Shallow Ice-Covered Lake in Winter: Effect of Changes in Light, Thermal and Ice Regimes

Oxygen conditions in ice-covered lakes depend on many factors, which, in turn, are influenced by a changing climate, so detection of the oxygen trend becomes difficult. Our research was based on data of long-term measurements of dissolved oxygen (2007–2020), water temperature, under-ice solar radiation, and snow-ice thickness (1995–2020) in Lake Vendyurskoe (Northwestern Russia). Changes of air temperature and precipitation in the study region during 1994–2020 and ice phenology of Lake Vendyurskoe for the same period based on field data and FLake model calculations were analyzed. The interannual variability of ice-on and ice-off dates covered wide time intervals (5 and 3 weeks, respectively), but no significant trends were revealed. In years with early ice-on, oxygen content decreased by more than 50% by the end of winter. In years with late ice-on and intermediate ice-off, the oxygen decrease was less than 40%. A significant negative trend was revealed for snow-ice cover thickness in spring. A climatic decrease of snow-ice cover thickness contributes to the rise of under-ice irradiance and earlier onset of under-ice convection. In years with early and long convection, an increase in oxygen content by 10–15% was observed at the end of the ice-covered period, presumably due to photosynthesis of phytoplankton.

Вариация температуры воздуха холодного периода на Кольском полуострове как фактор изменения ледового режима

The paper considers the long-term spatial and temporal air temperature variability on the Kola Peninsula according to 26 hydro-meteorological stations and the ice regime of rivers according to 13 hydrological stations for 1950—2018 (base period 1950—1980, and control period 1981—2018). The cold season of the year on the Kola Peninsula lasts from October to the first decade of May, the average temperature for the season is –6.2°C. The average increase in air temperature during the cold season was 1.1 °C.

The Ecology of River Ice

AbstractMany of the world's rivers are ice‐covered during winter months but increasing evidence indicates that the extent of river ice will shift substantially as winters warm. However, our knowledge of rivers during winter lags far behind that of the growing season, limiting our understanding of how ice loss will affect rivers. Physical, chemical, and biological processes change from headwaters to large rivers; thus, we expect ice processes and resulting effects on the ecology of rivers could also vary with river size, as a result of the associated changes in geomorphology, temperature regimes, and connectivity. To conceptualize these relationships, we review typically disparate literature on ice processes and winter ecology and compare what is known in the smallest and largest rivers. In doing so, we show that our ability to link ice with ecology across river networks is made difficult by a primary focus on ice processes in larger rivers and a lack of study of ecosystem processes during winter. To address some of these gaps, we provide new scenarios of river ice loss and analyses of how the annual importance of winter gross primary productivity (GPP) varies with river size. We show projected ice loss varied with large‐scale watershed characteristics such as north‐south orientation and that the importance of winter to annual GPP was greatest in the smallest rivers. Finally, we highlight information needed to fill knowledge gaps on winter across river networks and improve our understanding of how rivers may change as climate and ice regimes shift.