Probability assessment of possible ice encounters during the petroleum hydrocarbons transportation in the Sea of Okhotsk

Abstract

The increase in freight traffic along the Northern Sea Route necessitates the study of the ice regime of the freezing seas of Russia, including the Far Eastern ones (Bering Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan). This paper, on the basis of the analysis of the Sea of Okhotsk’s ice cover and the location of the edges of the Sea of Okhotsk’s ice massif, evaluates the probability of an encounter with ice for the ships in transit during cargo transportation on the Northern Sea Route through the Far Eastern seas along two basic routes from the southern tip of the Kamchatka Peninsula: 1) traverse Cape Lopatka–Sea of Okhotsk–La Perouse Strait; 2) traverse Cape Lopatka–Sangarsky Strait. It was shown that at the stage of ice cover maximum development in the Sea of Okhotsk (February-March), route No. 2 was the most adequate and the safest for ships of ice class Arc4 and below. The section of route No. 1 with a 70 % ice encounter probability was 421 km long in February and 382 km long in March. That section of the route was dominated by very cohesive first-year thin ice up to 70 cm thick with inclusions of first-year ice of average thickness (up to 120 cm).