Home Advantage Research Articles

Rating Batters in Test Cricket

In test cricket, we rated batters’ performance. We have proposed rating criteria as introduced by Scarf, Akhtar, and Rasool in 2014 with additional explanatory variables on the updated data set. The newly added covariates that we included in our research are the home factor and the ground influence. The same rating system is applied in the previous study. Using multinomial logistic regression, sessions from all days of a test match are modeled to determine match outcome probabilities at the end of each session. These models are based on all of the factors that can influence the outcome of a match. It is discovered that the predictors of home factor and pitch quality have a significant impact on the outcome of the test match. We used multinomial logistic regression to model data and estimate the parameters in the models. We forecasted match outcomes using these models at the end of each session and measured batters’ performances by using these probabilities. This process is repeated in a test match at the end of a session, and batters’ contributions to their team score are accumulated. Both teams’ batters are then ranked based on their rating points. The batsmen are rated based on their performance in the match by adding new factors (pitch effect and home advantage) in the models. The proposed ranking is compared with the ICC’s traditional ranking of batters in the test cricket series.

Can socio-cultural predictors help explain the home advantage gap in European men’s and women’s football?

ABSTRACT The present study aims to explore the socio-cultural predictors (SCp) effects in home advantage (HA) in European men’s and women’s national football leagues. A total of 69,223 matches in 21 countries were analysed. Exploratory regression modelling for HA gender gaps (HAGG) included each country’s SCp (KOF-Cultural Globalization [KOFCuGI]; Global Gender Gap [GGGI]; macro-regionlocation); male and female league competitive balance (MCB, WCB). The HA was demonstrated in 41 leagues with a large HAGG effect (4.3%) in 14 countries (men, 58.4 ± 3.6%; women, 54.1 ± 3.9%; p< 0.001; ES = 0.84). The KOFCuGI (= 0.19, p< 0.001) and WCB (= 5.40, p< 0.001) could explain moderate variance in HAGG (R 2 = 0.17, F(5,183) = 7.44, p< 0.001). The western region had the lowest HAGG with medium magnitude differences to the southern region (~3%; p< 0.05, ES = 0.54). The SCp may offer new approaches in studies of gender disparity in sport.

The Effect of COVID-19 on Home Advantage in Women's Soccer: Evidence From Swedish Damallsvenskan.

Most studies of the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on home advantage have been conducted on men's soccer, with the women's game lacking scientific attention. The present study fills this gap by investigating games in Swedish Damallsvenskan women's soccer league. Comparing games in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, we find a slight, but not statistically significant reduction in home advantage in games without crowds in terms of goals scored and points achieved. However, unlike in most studies on men's soccer, we find that away teams received significantly more yellow cards in games without crowds compared to games with crowds. We discuss our results in the context of the findings in men's soccer. JEL Classification: D00, J71, L00, Z13, Z20.

Two Years of COVID-19 Pandemic: How the Brazilian Serie A Championship Was Affected by Home Advantage, Performance and Disciplinary Aspects.

As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Brazilian Serie A championship was played without crowds in 2020 and partially in the 2021 season. We verified if the home advantage (HA) was different between the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons. We also compared the HA, performance, and disciplinary aspects between the rounds with or without crowds and verified the association between the number of absent athletes because of health protocols and the HA in the 2020 and 2021 seasons. We calculated the HA using the Pollard method. The performance aspects were goals, corners, shots, and ball possession, and the disciplinary aspects were fouls, yellow cards, and red cards. The HA was higher in the 2018 season compared with the other seasons. The rounds with crowds showed higher HAs than the two previous seasons and the teams had more shots and scored more goals than in the rounds without crowds. There were 457 athletes in the 2020 season and 123 athletes in the 2021 season who were absent because of health protocols, and there was no association between absence and HA. The COVID-19 pandemic affected soccer in the two last seasons in different ways in the Brazilian Serie A championship.

Influence Mechanism of the Home Advantage on Referees' Decision-Making in Modern Football Field - A Study From Sports Neuro-Decision Science.

As professional football stadiums continue to grow in popularity worldwide, fans are able to watch the game in closer proximity, but the design of professional football stadiums to shorten the distance between fans and the playing field also exacerbates the impact of the home advantage on the referee’s decision to call a penalty. Studies have confirmed the existence of the home advantage and found that experienced referees can reduce the impact of this interference, but the neural mechanisms behind this phenomenon have not been adequately investigated. In this study, we designed a soccer referee decision making task based on a home field effect scenario in a real soccer game, and used event-related potentials (ERPs) to compare the decision making and EEG differences between individuals with different experience levels when faced with foul actions under spectator noise interference. The experiments showed that individuals with different experience levels triggered a significant ERN EEG component when performing the penalty decision task under the home field effect factor, suggesting that the interference of the home field effect may lead referees to correct their previous decision-making behavior patterns in the penalty decision and reduce unfavorable calls against the home team. In contrast, referees with officiating experience elicited smaller ERN amplitudes compared to other subjects, suggesting that experience factors may inhibit this tendency to change behavioral patterns. This study suggests that in response to the increasing trend of professional football stadiums, policy makers should place more emphasis on enhancing the experience level of referees in the training of referees to ensure the fairness of the game.

A complete season with attendance restrictions confirms the relevant contribution of spectators to home advantage and referee bias in association football.

BackgroundDue to the unfortunate pandemic situation, the phenomena of home advantage and referee bias in sports have recently received a particular research attention, especially in association football. In this regard, several studies were conducted on the last portion of the 2019–20 season: the majority of them suggests a reduction—but not the elimination—of the two phenomena, with some exceptions in which no reduction was found or, at the other extreme, the phenomena were not observed at all.MethodsThe continuation of the pandemic made it possible to replicate the previous studies considering the complete 2020–21 season, thus with the important added value of having a fully balanced home/away schedule—and a higher number of matches—in the various leagues. In particular, the sample of the present study consisted of 3,898 matches from the first and second divisions of the UEFA top five ranked countries, that is, England, Spain, Italy, Germany, and France. For the home advantage, the following variables were examined: distribution of matches outcomes and home advantage for points (also for previous seasons from the 2014–15 one); ball possession; total shots; shots on goal; and corner kicks. Instead, for he referee bias, the following variables were examined: fouls; yellow cards; red cards; penalty kicks; and extra time. Chi-square tests were used to compare the distribution of matches outcomes, and t-tests to compare home vs. away data for the other variables in the 2020–21 season; Bayesian and equivalence analyses were also conducted.ResultsThe main results are as follows: (a) the distribution of matches outcomes in the 2020–21 season was significantly different from that of the last five complete seasons with spectators (Chi-square = 37.42, df = 2, p < 0.001), with fewer home victories and more away victories; the resulting values of the home advantage for points were 54.95% for the 2020–21 season, and 59.36% for the previous seasons; (b) for the other home advantage variables, a statistically significant overall advantage for the home team emerged; nevertheless, the strength of the differences between home and away teams was generally small (0.09 < Cohen’s d < 0.17), and the corresponding means can be considered statistically equivalent for all variables but the total shots; (c) no statistically significant differences emerged between home and away teams for any of the referee bias variables.DiscussionThese findings demonstrate that the absence of spectators significantly reduced the home advantage compared to previous seasons with spectators. A slight home advantage persisted in the 2020–21 season, probably due to other factors, namely, learning and travel, according to the model by Courneya & Carron (1992). Conversely, the referee bias was not observed, suggesting that it mainly derives from the pressure normally exerted by spectators.

Crowd social pressure in the Brazilian soccer league: testing home advantage and referees’ bias during the COVID-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT Although the home advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in soccer, the effect of the home crowd social pressure on teams and referees’ performance remains unclear. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a unique opportunity to test the real effect of the crowd. The aim of the present study was to analyse the home advantage and referee bias in the Brazilian soccer league, comparing whole seasons played with and without spectators. Match data from 2003 to 2020 were compared. The points earned, victories, and goals scored were used to analyse teams’ performance. Referee bias was investigated by the extra time, yellow and red cards awarded. Difference of points and victories, between home and away teams, during the 2020 season was similar to most of the previous seasons and showed a decreasing tendency throughout the seasons. When comparing the 2019 and 2020 seasons, the home advantage, measured by the relative number of points won at home, was present in games played with (60.9 ± 7.7%) and without (60.4 ± 6.3%) spectators. Home teams showed higher number of victories, total points, and goals scored (p < 0.001 each). Away teams were awarded with a higher number of yellow cards (p = 0.008), but this number was smaller during the pandemic (p = 0.049). Games played with spectators received less minutes of extra time in the second half when away teams were losing by a difference of one goal (p = 0.012). In conclusion, the absence of spectators in the Brazilian soccer league during the COVID-19 pandemic did not reduce the home advantage but affected the referee bias.

Home advantage in football after moving to a new stadium: evidence from European professional teams

ABSTRACT Familiarity with local conditions is considered one of the main causes of home advantage (HA) in sport, yet it has received little attention from the sports science community. This study aimed to establish whether moving to play in newly built stadiums influences the HA of European professional football teams. The sample comprised 98 teams from 25 different leagues affiliated with the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA). For each team, the analysis was done with six full seasons, three before and after the stadium relocation. A general linear model was fitted to the data including team ability as a covariate to calculate the HA. Tukey’s pairwise comparisons revealed that the adjusted HA did not differ between any pairs of seasons, demonstrating that moving to a new stadium did not change the HA. A complementary repeated-measure analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between HA and stadium attendance over the six seasons. Although there was a large-sized and significant increase in attendance after relocation (51.6%), a negligible correlation (rs = −0.02, p = 0.85) between the size of the increase and the change in HA was found. It was concluded that there is no consistent evidence that a change of stadium significantly affects the HA of professional football teams; nevertheless, there is likely to be a positive impact on revenue because of increased crowd support and interest from the local community. Building a new and modern stadium is a positive strategy that can be adopted by football clubs without the expectation of change in HA.

The impact of COVID-19 on home advantage: a conditional order-m analysis of football clubs’ efficiency in the top-5 European leagues

ABSTRACT This study aims to contribute to the recent literature on the effects of COVID on football teams’ performance, focusing on the impact of ghost games on offensive and defensive technical efficiency. Using season-level data for the top 5 European leagues, a novelty for efficiency studies on football, the analysis compares the ten seasons played before the pandemic outbreak with the only season (2020–21) almost entirely played behind closed doors. A further novel contribution is the methodology – conditional order-m – applied to calculate efficiency scores. Our results show that in the post-COVID season both offensive and defensive efficiency significantly increased for away games, whereas for home games offensive efficiency shows a very slight increase, and defensive efficiency remains basically unchanged. These findings are valid for all the five leagues and provide evidence of a generalized reduction in the home advantage.

Major League Baseball during the COVID-19 pandemic: does a lack of spectators affect home advantage?

A home advantage is present in most professional sports leagues. Spectators may be a major factor in home advantage, but empirical results have been mixed. Professional games were played without spectators during the 2020 season amid the COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigated home advantage in Major League Baseball (MLB) during 2020 as compared with the 2015–2019 seasons. A total of 13,044 regular-season games (898 in 2020 and 12,146 in 2015–2019) were analyzed. The sum of wins above replacement of all players was used as an indicator of team quality. The likelihood of a home-team win with spectators was not significantly different to that without spectators (odds ratio = 1.068; 95% confidence interval = 0.932–1.224, p > 0.05). The relative home advantage, percentage of home wins of total wins by a team in a specific season, was not significantly different across years, team quality, and attendance. Factorial analysis of variance models that included the variables of year, team quality, and attendance also revealed that none of these variables significantly affected the relative home advantage. The results suggest that spectators may not be an important factor of home advantage in MLB.

Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer

The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team’s scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0.39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0.50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority.

Differential CXCR4 expression on hematopoietic progenitor cells versus stem cells directs homing and engraftment.

Gene therapy involves a substantial loss of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPC) during processing and homing. Intra-BM (i.b.m.) transplantation can reduce homing losses, but prior studies have not yielded promising results. We studied the mechanisms involved in homing and engraftment of i.b.m. transplanted and i.v. transplanted genetically modified (GM) human HSPC. We found that i.b.m. HSPC transplantation improved engraftment of hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPC) but not of long-term repopulating hematopoietic stem cells (HSC). Mechanistically, HPC expressed higher functional levels of CXCR4 than HSC, conferring them a retention and homing advantage when transplanted i.b.m. Removing HPC and transplanting an HSC-enriched population i.b.m. significantly increased long-term engraftment over i.v. transplantation. Transient upregulation of CXCR4 on GM HSC-enriched cells, using a noncytotoxic portion of viral protein R (VPR) fused to CXCR4 delivered as a protein in lentiviral particles, resulted in higher homing and long-term engraftment of GM HSC transplanted either i.v. or i.b.m. compared with standard i.v. transplants. Overall, we show a mechanism for why i.b.m. transplants do not significantly improve long-term engraftment over i.v. transplants. I.b.m. transplantation becomes relevant when an HSC-enriched population is delivered. Alternatively, CXCR4 expression on HSC, when transiently increased using a protein delivery method, improves homing and engraftment specifically of GM HSC.

Estimating the effect of attendance on home advantage in the National Basketball Association

ABSTRACT Using COVID-19 safety protocols as a natural experiment, we are able to delineate three distinct attendance categories in the NBA: 1) unrestricted games played prior to the pandemic, 2) attendance-restricted games played with socially distanced fans, and 3) ‘ghost games’ played without fans. Further, since attendance at restricted games was exogenously determined by local COVID-19 protocols that were in turn driven by changes in COVID-19 case counts, we are able to estimate whether the ‘marginal fan’ contributes to home advantage. Taken together, our results indicate that the presence of fans matters to home team performance; in fact, ‘ghost games’ eliminated home advantage in totality. With a relatively small number of socially distanced fans, however, the entirety of home advantage was retained. Interestingly, since the size of socially distanced crowds had a statistically insignificant impact on home advantage, we find no evidence of a ‘marginal fan’ effect. Finally, since researchers have found that officiating is influenced by fans in international soccer (e.g. Anders and Rotthoff, 2014), we explore whether NBA officiating behaviour was altered due to changes in attendance conditions. Our results indicate that NBA officials were not measurably influenced by the presence or quantity of fans.

Game location effect in the NBA: A comparative analysis of playing at home, away and in a neutral court during the COVID-19 season

ABSTRACT The home advantage effect seems to be related to a more functional aggressive behaviour with an increased performance in rebounds. It has been traditionally considered as an important factor during basketball games that needs to be studied under different scenarios (home, away or neutral locations). This study aimed to analyse NBA team’s game-related statistics, pre-shooting combinations and pick-and-roll performances among locations (playing at home, away and in a neutral court) during the COVID-19 season. A retrospective cross-sectional study of the 2019–2020 NBA season (906 games) was carried out. Game-related statistics were gathered from the private company InStat (https://basketball.instatscout.com/). The main results showedthat (i) home-court teams had better performances in points, field goal percentage, rebounds, assists and fouls than away-court teams and neutral-court teams; (ii) home-court teams had better performances than away-court teams or neutral-court teams in transitions and cuts made and (iii) home-court teams and neutral-court teams had similar performances to away-court teams in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop situations although teams playing away had more attempts. In conclusion, playing at home under different circumstances favours the local team, mainly using a more collective way of play.

The effect of crowd support: home advantage in football is reduced during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

Abstract As support from other people can influence human behaviour, one may ask how the absence of crowd attendance influences the performance of football (i.e., soccer) players. I address this question by contrasting matches of the Brazilian Championship (1st and 2nd Divisions) in 2019 and 2020, years in which crowd attendance was prohibited in order to fight the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. In the 1st Division, home advantage decreased from 2019 to 2020, as teams that used to play for larger crowds had lower performance at home in 2020. However, no decrease in home advantage occurred in the 2nd Division in the same period. One explanation for this difference is that the beneficial effects of crowd support are more effective in the 1st Division, where players are used to receiving support from larger crowds. Therefore, while fan support can influence the behaviour/performance of players, this may not always happen.

Optimizing rest times and differences in games played: an iterative two-phase approach

A considerable number of sports competitions cope with limited availability of teams and sports infrastructure by organizing their timetable around a season that comprises many more time slots than games per team. However, in such timetables the rest period between teams’ consecutive games can vary considerably and the difference in the number of games played at any point in the season can become large. In this paper, we propose an iterative two-phase approach to construct relaxed round-robin timetables that are less prone to these fairness issues. In particular, the first phase determines the game-off-day pattern (GOP) set which regulates when teams play (home or away) or have an off day (also called bye). Subsequently, the second phase constructs a compatible timetable which specifies the opponents and the home advantage of the games. If no compatible timetable exists, we generate one or more logic-based Benders cuts that rule out the infeasible GOP set in future iterations. We test the two-phase approach on a problem where feasibility of the timetable and the objective value is mainly determined by when teams play games and show that our approach excels when the number of additional time slots is moderate.

A Bayesian Approach to Predict Football Matches with Changed Home Advantage in Spectator-Free Matches after the COVID-19 Break

Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most professional sports events have been held without spectators. It is generally believed that home teams deprived of enthusiastic support from their home fans experience reduced benefits of playing on their home fields, thus becoming less likely to win. This study attempts to confirm if this belief is true in four major European football leagues through statistical analysis. This study proposes a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model to estimate parameters reflecting the home advantage and the change in such advantage. These parameters are used to improve the performance of machine-learning-based prediction models for football matches played after the COVID-19 break. The study describes the statistical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on football match results in terms of the expected score and goal difference. It also shows that estimated parameters from the proposed model reflect the changed home advantage. Finally, the study verifies that these parameters, when included as additional features, enhance the performance of various football match prediction models. The home advantage in European football matches has changed because of the behind-closed-doors policy implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using parameters reflecting the pandemic’s impact, it is possible to predict more precise results of spectator-free matches after the COVID-19 break.

The influence of spectators on home advantage and referee bias in national teams matches: insights from UEFA Nations League

ABSTRACT The home advantage and the subconscious referee bias regularly occur in professional sports, particularly in association football. The matches played behind closed doors in spring and summer 2020 highlighted that the crowd support is one of the main factors contributing to both phenomena in domestic leagues. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether the same applies also to national teams matches, given the different impact of the other factors determining the home advantage in such matches. To this purpose, the 2018–19 and the 2020–21 editions of the UEFA Nations League – 133 matches each – were analysed, the former played in front of spectators while the latter with no or limited attendance. In particular, we examined a set of indicators of home advantage (match outcome, points, goals scored, ball possession, total shots, shots on goal, corner kicks) and of referee bias (fouls, yellow cards, red cards, penalty kicks, extra time), controlling for the FIFA World Ranking points and the number of time zones crossed. Comparing home and away teams on these parameters within each edition, we observed the occurrence of both phenomena in 2018-19, as well as their absence in 2020-21. Moreover, the comparison between the two editions revealed a significant reduction of both phenomena. The results indicate that spectators have a decisive role in contributing to both the home advantage and the referee bias in national teams matches.

Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds

AbstractFan support has often been considered to be a main driver of the home advantage in sports. Using the “natural exper‐ iment” of ghost games during the COVID‐19 pandemic in German professional soccer and a dataset of 6,120 matches ranging over the seasons 2011/2012 to 2020/2021, we test this claim. Indeed, applying a difference‐in‐differences setup, we identify a reduction in the home performance ‐ though with much heterogeneity across leagues and teams. We, moreover, observe the home advantage to recover over time. In analysing whether betting markets anticipated this drop in the home advantage and its recovery, we test the efficient market hypothesis. In the short‐run, betting odds do not properly reflect the effect of ghost games regarding changes in the home advantage but they suitably account for it in the long‐run. Also, league heterogeneity is efficiently captured in the odds. Based on these findings, we show how simple, short‐run betting strategies could have exploited the discussed phenomenon. Our findings also have implications for agents' behavior on financial markets in the presence of unforeseen and unfamiliar shocks.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on HOME Advantage in Different European Professional Basketball Leagues.

Our purpose in this study was to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on home advantage (HA) in sports by comparing European professional basketball games in which spectators were present (pre-pandemic) with “ghost” games in which spectators were absent (during the pandemic). A secondary objective was to analyze how team ability interacted with HA by comparing HA affects pre-pandemic and during the pandemic in the context of differing team ability levels. We used Wilcoxon and Mann–Whitney U tests to identify HA through differences in home win percentages (HW%) between pre-pandemic and pandemic games. Additionally, we ran the Kruskal–Wallis test to identify HA and HW% differences between different team ability levels (high to low). Teams had higher HA and HW% pre-pandemic than during the pandemic. In turn, low level teams presented a higher HA compared to teams at other team ability levels. Thus, low level teams benefited more from playing at their home-court. However, low level teams showed lower HW% than medium and high team ability levels, showing that team ability is more important than HA in determining game outcomes.