Abstract
Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most professional sports events have been held without spectators. It is generally believed that home teams deprived of enthusiastic support from their home fans experience reduced benefits of playing on their home fields, thus becoming less likely to win. This study attempts to confirm if this belief is true in four major European football leagues through statistical analysis. This study proposes a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model to estimate parameters reflecting the home advantage and the change in such advantage. These parameters are used to improve the performance of machine-learning-based prediction models for football matches played after the COVID-19 break. The study describes the statistical analysis on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on football match results in terms of the expected score and goal difference. It also shows that estimated parameters from the proposed model reflect the changed home advantage. Finally, the study verifies that these parameters, when included as additional features, enhance the performance of various football match prediction models. The home advantage in European football matches has changed because of the behind-closed-doors policy implemented due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Using parameters reflecting the pandemic’s impact, it is possible to predict more precise results of spectator-free matches after the COVID-19 break.
Highlights
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began spreading globally by the end of 2019
This research began as a way of answering the following question: “How did the behind-closed-doors matches due to the COVID-19 pandemic affect the home team’s chance of winning?” We identified the difference in the expected points and number of goals scored by the home team between the seasons before and after the COVID-19 break using a two-sample t-test
The test results show that the expected points and, most importantly, the goal difference decreased over the COVID-19 break
Summary
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic began spreading globally by the end of 2019. LaLiga, Serie A, and Bundesliga) went on a few months’ break after the pandemic’s outbreak, later resuming with matches played behind closed doors [1]. In the home-andaway system of professional football matches, the home team is usually believed to have a “home advantage” when playing on their ground—thanks to the enthusiastic support of a large number of home spectators—such that the home team wins relatively more at home on average. A team manager in the English Premier League once said that the opponent’s stadium is intimidating only if it is full of a crowd [2]. Experts and media frequently propose the hypothesis that the absence of spectators since the COVID-19 pandemic could affect the teams’ home advantage
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