Influence of Red and Yellow cards on team performance in elite soccer

Abstract

The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team’s scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0.39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0.50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority.